Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Global Warming

Panthera tigris FC said:
Good to see the Freezer cheer squad is in effect.

Don't be a wanker Panthera.


Panthera tigris FC said:
If any of you denialists/skeptics (that is what it is Livers - it is not a dismissal) really want your position to be taken seriously from a scientific perspective you need to point out the flaws in the climate models and provide a better model that fits the data. Funnily enough more qualified individuals than yourselves haven't been able to do so, hence the AGW consensus stands.

It is ironic that you would call the science "arrogant" when you dismiss the science, the work of thousands of scientists from a multitude of disciplines, with a quick paragraph on your keyboard.

Classic canards such as 'scientists have been wrong before' cloud the fact that the scientific process has led to most of the advances that underpin modern society. It is never perfect, but is the only method of knowledge acquisition that actively and methodically improves and refines its conclusions (the theories) based on the available data. Scientist also tend to err on the conservative side when drawing conclusions. Their colleagues and peers would quickly address any overstepping as that is how the process works. AGW is no different. It is the best theory to describe what we know about the climate and our emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Just stating 'I don't believe it' or 'the system is SO complex' disregards these facts.

I'm not a scientist and can't do all the things you say I need to if I want to have an alternate opinion. What I can do is read, and I've seen enough through my reading to suggest that maybe humans aren't wholly and totally to blame for the warming, like some would have us believe.
 
antman said:
Point me to this scientific evidence.

Well yes, but the rival camp is the size of a 4 man canvas tent pitched outside Geneva, and is largely populated by crackpots or those funded by big oil "think-tanks", speaking of "vested interests". But that's not important to you, as long as there is an "opposing view" then we can split it down the middle right? Then it's just a matter of opinion right?

No, it was an editorial choice - and like most publications that rely on stock images, they selected it and published it. This is the way journalists and publishers work. And yes, they do make mistakes and publish corrections. No conspiracy required. The best regarded publications do make mistakes though - and the good ones publish corrections.

See above. An editorial choice of a photograph in a magazine does not invalidate science. Spreading FUD doesn't invalidate science. What does invalidate a particular scientific theory or measurement is further scientific empirical evidence.

Or is it just the denialists spreading FUD? Does a typo invalidate a scientific paper? Does a photograph as an accompanying sidebar to a story in Science invalidate the content of the story? Is a photograph in Science from 2005 the only evidence you have of the massive AGW conspiracy that is conning the foolish and naive?

By the way, still waiting for you to condemn the $12 billion AUD in subsidies to the fossil fuel industry. This is a distortion of the free market, results in higher taxes for all of us, and of course stifles innovation and development of more efficient industries and technologies.

No point directing you to the scientific evidence as apparently to you, they are all crackpots and scientists with vested interests anyway, while the scientists that publish the data that conforms to your view is holier than thou, pure, and has no vested interest whatsoever, do they?

Like I said in an earlier post, BOTH sides have scientific data which can debunk the other, so there is no point me trawling the internet with links...then you post links saying its crap...then I post more links proving you're talking crap, etc.
In fact, I think I have already done this on this thread in the past anyway.

Yes, you're right...the doctored picture was an editorial choice from a bunch of stock images....to try and get the public to feel sorry for the polar bear. It was a deliberate attempt to coerce the reader to sympathise with the story being told, instead of relying on facts to prove this to the reader.
The problem is, "Science", which is supposedly based on facts and research and by using fake pictures to try and corroborate loses credibility as a result.

Again, I'm not anti-manmade pollution as reason behind global warming but I don't think it is the only reason or even the main reason. But it is a contributor.

Azza said:
Ok. We're in an interglacial period currently, and have been for 12000 years or so. During that time climate has been relatively stable. The significant peaks and troughs in global temperature during that time can be related to particular natural events, including volcanic eruptions. None of those peaks and troughs are as significant as the rise in temperature since 1900 or so. No natural event or cumulative series of events are known that might cause that warming. However, that trend coincides closely with increasing emissions since the industrial revolution.
You claim that a series of natural events accumulated to cause the rise. Which eruptions? Which solar flares? What positive feedback is occurring to cumulatively cause an increase in temperature? Why is this occurring now rather than at any time during the last 12000 years?

Azza...there aren't any accurate readings of the earth temperature before the industrial revolution anyway, so we don't really know what the real temperatures have been.
However, there have been natural phenomena in the past that have caused extinctions so any natural phenomena (and that includes increases in earthquake activity, the first half of the 20th century saw an increase in solar energy, whereas there are scientists who believe that a lack of solar activity caused the Little Ice Age between 1650 and 1850) can have large affects and very quickly.
I'm agreeing with you that the Industrial Revolution has played some part in global warming but there are too many larger factors that have played roles which seem to be neglected.
Like the link I posted last post:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536
...there's a massive change due to a dust veil caused by a volcanic eruption (or even a meteorite) which changed the climate across the globe...now surely this would then have a domino effect regarding droughts, water disappearing, which would change ecosystems, which would lead to further changes globally.
These again seem to be neglected.
 
Freezer said:
Don't be a wanker Panthera.
I'm not a scientist and can't do all the things you say I need to if I want to have an alternate opinion. What I can do is read, and I've seen enough through my reading to suggest that maybe humans aren't wholly and totally to blame for the warming, like some would have us believe.

Seems we're in the middle mate :cutelaugh not denying climate change but not 100% blaming the human race either.

How dare we!! 8-
 
One fact that I read a little while ago seems to need explanation, which I can't find anywhere: How can humans be driving climate change if the emissions in question account for only 3% of total carbon emissions? Furthermore, how can these emissions be having a significant effect if carbon emissions only contribute up to 25% of the greenhouse effect? If I'm getting this right, doesn't it mean human carbon emissions account for only 3% of (at most) a quarter of all factors driving global warming?
 
Liverpool said:
..... not 100% blaming the human race either.

Even if we're only partly responsible isn't it out duty to try and reduce our impact, and limit the damage, as much as possible?
 
Liverpool said:
Again, I'm not anti-manmade pollution as reason behind global warming but I don't think it is the only reason or even the main reason. But it is a contributor.

You've come a long way Liverpool. I'm impressed. We'll get there.
 
tigersnake said:
You've come a long way Liverpool. I'm impressed. We'll get there.

I think if you look at my first post on the topic on the first page, my stance has not changed one iota between then and now :)
 
that wasn't my impression. Back in the day it seemed you just scoffed and ridiculed any suggestion of AGW. Its not the case any more.
 
Liverpool said:
Azza...there aren't any accurate readings of the earth temperature before the industrial revolution anyway, so we don't really know what the real temperatures have been.
However, there have been natural phenomena in the past that have caused extinctions so any natural phenomena (and that includes increases in earthquake activity, the first half of the 20th century saw an increase in solar energy, whereas there are scientists who believe that a lack of solar activity caused the Little Ice Age between 1650 and 1850) can have large affects and very quickly.
I'm agreeing with you that the Industrial Revolution has played some part in global warming but there are too many larger factors that have played roles which seem to be neglected.
Like the link I posted last post:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535%E2%80%93536
...there's a massive change due to a dust veil caused by a volcanic eruption (or even a meteorite) which changed the climate across the globe...now surely this would then have a domino effect regarding droughts, water disappearing, which would change ecosystems, which would lead to further changes globally.
These again seem to be neglected.

The older records areen't as accurate, but there's enough evidence to indicate that the current warming trend is an exceptional event. But we're still talking at cross purposes. The extreme events you're talking about need to be connected to the warming trend in some way or they're not an argument against the one activity that CAN be connected to it.

Climate modelling isn't my field, but I was involved in research into the effects of climate change on the landscape, and the repercussions of such events you're talking about are completely acknowledged in the science. You're indirectly quoting the work done by those scientists. That's what makes the modelling so complex and difficult.

But anyway, I hope like hell you're right!
 
mld said:
Yes, my post was in the context of Knighter's premise that there is no downside at all in moving to renewable energy.

There are costs involved in moving to more expensive forms of energy, and as you state there are reasons to be made why those costs should be paid. I don't think it is helpful to pretend that isn't the case.
I take your point MLD but I don't really agree. We have a very high standard of living here, it isn't really under threat. Our standard of lifestyle might have to take a hit for a while, but it will recover as the price of energy inevitably comes down. The flow on effects can actually add value. We can become the regional go-to guys for energy solutions. We can help transform the region and sell something to China (clean energy solutions) that doesn't cost us multiple times (environmental damage of a hole in the ground, pollution of the machinery that dug it up, pollution from the transport, pollution in the atmosphere from the burning of the fossil fuel in China). It isn't as cheap as the those who promote it like to suggest, they just don't count the cost of the other factors.
 
Sintiger said:
Do I have to look at her as well?

Look, listen and learn from the richest woman in history - a model mother, a benevolent billionaire, a scientific genius, a warrior for freedom of speech and a true ambassador for all Australians. And let's not forget those voluptuous good looks and spectacular fashion sense.

(Disclaimer: this should not be construed as sarcasm and is in now way intended to be defamatory to Gina Rinehart or her hardworking team of lawyers and business associates.)
 
bullus_hit said:
Look, listen and learn from the richest woman in history - a model mother, a benevolent billionaire, a scientific genius, a warrior for freedom of speech and a true ambassador for all Australians. And let's not forget those voluptuous good looks and spectacular fashion sense.

(Disclaimer: this should not be construed as sarcasm and is in now way intended to be defamatory to Gina Rinehart or her hardworking team of lawyers and business associates.)

Has she had 10 holes in one in a single round of golf?
 
Disco08 said:
One fact that I read a little while ago seems to need explanation, which I can't find anywhere: How can humans be driving climate change if the emissions in question account for only 3% of total carbon emissions? Furthermore, how can these emissions be having a significant effect if carbon emissions only contribute up to 25% of the greenhouse effect? If I'm getting this right, doesn't it mean human carbon emissions account for only 3% of (at most) a quarter of all factors driving global warming?
It is claimed that the increase in CO2 has positive feedback effect on the climate by producing more H2O, which is the real culprit to increased temperatures. This is where the majority of scientific discussion needs to be focused, because without this, dangerous AGW is bogus.
 
Liverpool said:
No point directing you to the scientific evidence as apparently to you, they are all crackpots and scientists with vested interests anyway, while the scientists that publish the data that conforms to your view is holier than thou, pure, and has no vested interest whatsoever, do they?

Not at all - science is not about being holy, but being able to use empirical evidence and formulating theories to explain that evidence. These theories can then be disproved or validated through the acquisition and analysis of further empirical evidence. So bring it on.

Like I said in an earlier post, BOTH sides have scientific data which can debunk the other, so there is no point me trawling the internet with links...then you post links saying its crap...then I post more links proving you're talking crap, etc.
In fact, I think I have already done this on this thread in the past anyway.

In one sense you are right - there's no point asking you for evidence as you are not interested in evidence, only in saying "you say potato, I say tomato".

One simple example - does this:

polar-bear.jpg


invalidate this:

average-january-ice.png


For you, the evil scientific conspiracy that used a stock photo to get sympathy for polar bears losing habitat invalidates the actual empirical scientific evidence that polar bears actually do have a declining habitat.

Again, I'm not anti-manmade pollution as reason behind global warming but I don't think it is the only reason or even the main reason. But it is a contributor.

Explain the global warming trend that coincides with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution then.

These again seem to be neglected.

Actually, they aren't. Scientists make very careful measurements of the impact of volcanic and other significant events on the climate.

BTW, still waiting for you to condemn the subsidies for the fossil fuel industries in Australia that cost us all in higher taxes, distort markets and inhibit natural innovation and development in other newer and cleaner energy technologies.
 
antman said:
Not at all - science is not about being holy, but being able to use empirical evidence and formulating theories to explain that evidence. These theories can then be disproved or validated through the acquisition and analysis of further empirical evidence. So bring it on.

So you're still saying the pro-'man did it' lobby don't have vested interests then?
The rival groups also use science and data to prove their points as well, which is why we don't have a definitive answer on 'what causes global warming?'
All we have are scientists, from various lobbies, some with vested interests and agendas, providing their scientific data to prove they are right or to disprove the others are wrong.

antman said:
For you, the evil scientific conspiracy that used a stock photo to get sympathy for polar bears losing habitat invalidates the actual empirical scientific evidence that polar bears actually do have a declining habitat.

Like I said, I can debunk this:
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba551/

...now you'll come back with something from your "scientists"...and then...and so on.

antman said:
Explain the global warming trend that coincides with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution then.

Actually, they aren't. Scientists make very careful measurements of the impact of volcanic and other significant events on the climate.

BTW, still waiting for you to condemn the subsidies for the fossil fuel industries in Australia that cost us all in higher taxes, distort markets and inhibit natural innovation and development in other newer and cleaner energy technologies.

I think I answered similar to Azza on this one.

I know they do and thats why I believe that various natural phenomena and to a smaller degree, man-made pollutants, have all had a bearing on global warming.

Subsidies to the fossil fuel companies don't inhibit natural innovations...people, technology, and demand in the market do.
 
mld said:
I'm not sure you did take my point.

I thought I did, but I often misread peoples points. You suggested that there is a cost (contrary to my assertion that there is no down-side to moving to a renewable energy future) i.e. a hit to our standard of living. I suggested our standard of living very high and can afford to come down without causing real pain. I maintain the real cost of the status quo is much higher than people realise and is driving increasing prices now without the effect of forcing industry to shift to a more sustainable model which will actually reduce the cost of producing electricity into the future. Why not be a world leader, at least a regional leader, in clean energy?
 
Human beings need to worry about something.
Since lions, tigers and bears have been taken care of, something always finds its place.
Its within us, it's helped us survive. Im actually looking forward to what the powers that be have in store for us next. Im tipping that we will find a problematic meteor.
 
Liverpool said:
I think I answered similar to Azza on this one.

I know they do and thats why I believe that various natural phenomena and to a smaller degree, man-made pollutants, have all had a bearing on global warming.

Just because I gave-up the argument doesn't mean you answered the question livers!

If your posts were taken as an answer to an exam question in an undergraduate course "Demonstrate how non-anthropogenic causes have contributed to the post-Industrial Revolution global warming trend" you'd probably get marked 1 or 2 out of 5. The mark would be for naming some possible causes but not demonstrating how they contributed to the warming trend.