Global Warming

[AngryAnt]

Show us the proof ,that bills will increase by $1000 pa.
Show me the costs of rolling out all the renewables,up to now ,and future projects also include all the subsides that Labor are giving to keep their agenda a float.

You don''t mind sniping other's posts ,so maybe put up or shut up.

Here you go chief - energy industry analysts including from the Monash Energy Institute.

It's so annoying when industry experts prove your fact free posts wrong innit Bengals?

I always bring the receipts mate.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/labor-claims-electricity-prices-will-soar-by-1000-a-year-if-peter-dutton-goes-nuclear/news-story/d2046d8d8927dd786de9bf8e6b9f4318?amp=

Power bills could rise by $1,000 a year under Coalition plan to boost gas until nuclear is ready, analysts say

Experts predict major electricity price hikes if opposition proposal to slow rollout of large-scale renewable projects goes ahead

www.theguardian.com

 

[TigerMasochist]

. Victorian SEC should build some in the NW of the state.

DS

Has this actually evolved into anything more than a slogan n handful of public servants sitting in an office somewhere yet?? There were some big announcements made some time ago n then it simply faded into obscurity.

 

[bengal tigers]

Here you go chief - energy industry analysts including from the Monash Energy Institute.

It's so annoying when industry experts prove your fact free posts wrong innit Bengals?

I always bring the receipts mate.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/labor-claims-electricity-prices-will-soar-by-1000-a-year-if-peter-dutton-goes-nuclear/news-story/d2046d8d8927dd786de9bf8e6b9f4318?amp=

Power bills could rise by $1,000 a year under Coalition plan to boost gas until nuclear is ready, analysts say

Experts predict major electricity price hikes if opposition proposal to slow rollout of large-scale renewable projects goes ahead

www.theguardian.com

COULD BE ,THEY ARE ALL GUESSING .
So until the evidence is concrete ,it's all a blank statement.

Also show me the costs so far for all the renewables,and add all the subsides that taxpayers are forking out for,and then add all the future proposed projects ,and then add all the costs of maintaining them ,and replacing them over a 10-20 year period .
I bet you can't ,because Labor can't .

Duttons tactics has really exposed Labor about the costs associated with renewables.

 

[Willo]

Has this actually evolved into anything more than a slogan n handful of public servants sitting in an office somewhere yet?? There were some big announcements made some time ago n then it simply faded into obscurity.

Still at the mercy of weather conditions. They need a lot of sunny days to operate. Cloud cover, seasonal conditions like overcast wintry months or the wet season up north and they sit there doing nothing once the collector towers run down.
Ok in theory and work well in ideal circumstances, yet like a lot of renewables they are dependent on ideal weather conditions. If the weather turns against them, they’re just expensive infrastructure dotting the landscape.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/solar-power-station

Most are small in size. Only a couple of the larger ones are in Arab countries. Usually situated in deserts or arid landscapes.But it’s fast developing technology. Useful in specific conditions and locations.
Most of the more efficient CSPs will only store electricity for around 15 hours. Depending on the size of the plant and the drawdown; of course.

List of solar thermal power stations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So they’re not the answer or a replacement for solar grid batteries. Weather, landscape, environment are big factors where they can be located.
Next.

 

[eZyT]

CSIRO GENCOST MISLEADS AUSTRALIANS WITH
FLAWED ENERGY COST MODEL
“The CSIRO’s latest GenCost report has again relied on the discredited levelised cost of electricity
methodology to calculate energy system costs. This gives Australians and policymakers alike a false
understanding of the cost of our energy future,” said Scott Hargreaves, Executive Director of the
Institute of Public Affairs.
The CSIRO’s annual GenCost report released today, follows IPA research, published in April 2024, which
found that relying on the levelised cost of electricity methodology (LCOE) is dangerous, specifically:
LCOE accounting oversimplifies complex energy systems and overlooks crucial factors that
need to be considered in making investment and policy decisions. LCOE's focus on production
cost alone neglects performance, broader system integration, and value creation, rendering it
inadequate for informing energy policy decisions.
“LCOE simply cannot explain the rising costs of energy endured by Australian families and businesses.
Despite repeated GenCost reports predicting the contrary, as more wind and solar has come into the
system, costs have continued to rise, and blackout warnings are becoming regular,” said Mr
Hargreaves.
IPA research demonstrates that LCOE is highly sensitive to the assumptions used, and simply does not
take into account the extra costs that variable renewable energy triggers elsewhere in the market.
“LCOE does not recognise the real value of baseload generation from gas, coal or nuclear, which is
able to consistently produce electricity on demand, whereas renewables simply cannot,” said Mr
Hargreaves.
Forthcoming IPA research will detail the true cost of our energy future, by applying a far more accurate
methodology that takes into account the full costs right across the system. It establishes that any system
built on baseload generation, like gas, coal, or nuclear, will always be significantly less expensive than
one reliant on variable renewable energy.
“Australians have every right to be worried that the federal energy minister, Chris Bowen, continues to
hide behind these discredited numbers rather than being honest with them, while at the same time
failing to work to protect our nation’s energy security,” Mr Hargreaves said.
Yesterday, AEMO released its Update to the 2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, warning of an
increased risk of blackouts in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, as the nation continues to
remove dispatchable sources of power and scrambles to replace them with weather-dependent
renewables.
“Regardless of your opinion of wind and solar, the cold, hard reality is that more variable renewable
energy means higher costs and lower energy security. More dispatchable power, be it coal, gas or
nuclear, means lower costs and higher reliability,” said Mr Hargreaves.

CSIRO GenCost Misleads Australians With Flawed Energy Cost Model

“The CSIRO’s latest GenCost report has again relied on the discredited levelised cost of electricity methodology to calculate energy system costs. This gives Australians and policymakers alike a false understanding of the cost of our energy future,” said Scott Hargreaves, Executive Director of...

ipa.org.au

Its like plumber inspects the drainage in your slab, puts laser level it, points out the disparity to you and says

'your sewage is going uphill'

but the concreter goes 'nah, its good, lets pour the slab'

So you pour the slab

and spend the rest of your life pushing *smile* uphill,

because you didn't discern who knew WTF they were talking about.

one of these organisations reason for being is to hire people with related phD's to provide independent advice; the other is a lobby group.

let me put it another way;

your at a footy game, watching some u18's, wondering who your should draft.

The coach, an ex-afl player with a reputation for shrewdness, and several recruiters say to with general consensus 'keep eye on n.17, the kids the best thing ive ever seen'

then No.10's dad says to you 'No.17's no good. hes selfish,slow and can't kick. keep eye on No.10, the kids the best thing ive ever seen'

so you watch No.10?

 

[eZyT]

Prove them wrong Brodders.

this is what Facebook researchers do.

1. believe vested nonsense blindly and
2. say 'prove it' when presented with facts that prove it.

Facebook and an inability to discern,

threatens truth, democracy, peace and the planet.

 

[Willo]

this is what Facebook researchers do.

1. believe vested nonsense blindly and
2. say 'prove it' when presented with facts that prove it.

Facebook and an inability to discern,

threatens truth, democracy, peace and the planet.

Ave Maria

 

[Willo]

Like anything, models can only be used with the figures that are inputted.
Are these figures using a one off. A cross section. Similar or different technologies. Similar or different sizes. Similar or different types.
It’s like using a CostGen figure of a specific type of nuclear reactor as a template for all nuclear reactors.

CSIRO’s nuclear cost blowout a ‘shallow’ analysis: O’Brien​

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien accused Labor of “weaponising” the CSIRO’s sharply increased cost estimates for nuclear power, saying the agency’s findings were based on a single case in the US rather than an industry-wide analysis.

The research body’s annual GenCost comparison of energy costs raised by 39 per cent its estimate for small modular reactors, based on the collapse of a Utah project developed by Colorado-based NuScale.

Opposition spokesman on climate change and energy Ted O’Brien delivers a speech at COP28 in Dubai. Hans van Leeuwen

CSIRO chief energy economist Paul Graham said the US example was the “most honest” test of commercial cost and viability of such technology, which is at the heart of the Coalition’s renewable energy plan.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen seized on the modelling saying the opposition should drop its nuclear push. “[Will they] stick with this fantasy in light of this report today from our premier scientific agency, the CSIRO, and our market operator, AEMO, which has been prepared at arm’s length entirely independently of government.”

Mr O’Brien said CSIRO had ignored more than 400 nuclear power stations operating around the world, including the newly installed reactors in the United Arab Emirates that hosted this month’s UN Climate Summit.


Furthermore, despite an estimated 70 to 90 companies developing small modular reactors around the world, Mr O’Brien told AFR Weekend the CSIRO chose a single “start-up” example.
“They’re not looking at companies like Westinghouse, GE or Hitachi and they’ve chosen that one design from a start-up for one customer that has run into problems and based the entire analysis of nuclear on that.”
He noted in the same period that NuScale struggled with one project, Ontario’s government-owned generation business, OPG, quadrupled its SMR orders for its Canadian business.
“If you’re going to say nuclear doesn’t work because of NuScale, that’s like saying hydro doesn’t work because of cost blowouts at Snowy 2.0, or killing solar because Sun Cable ran into problems or dismissing wind because the world’s biggest developer, Siemens, wanted a government bailout.”
“Therefore, do we rule out all technologies? It’s just a shallow way of doing analysis.”
More…

CSIRO’s nuclear cost blowout a ‘shallow’ analysis: O’Brien

Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien slammed CSIRO’s use of a single example to explain its sharply increased cost estimates for SMRs.

www.afr.com

 

[bengal tigers]

Its like plumber inspects the drainage in your slab, puts laser level it, points out the disparity to you and says

'your sewage is going uphill'

but the concreter goes 'nah, its good, lets pour the slab'

So you pour the slab

and spend the rest of your life pushing *smile* uphill,

because you didn't discern who knew WTF they were talking about.

one of these organisations reason for being is to hire people with related phD's to provide independent advice; the other is a lobby group.

let me put it another way;

your at a footy game, watching some u18's, wondering who your should draft.

The coach, an ex-afl player with a reputation for shrewdness, and several recruiters say to with general consensus 'keep eye on n.17, the kids the best thing ive ever seen'

then No.10's dad says to you 'No.17's no good. hes selfish,slow and can't kick. keep eye on No.10, the kids the best thing ive ever seen'

so you watch No.10?

What your trying to say,is the Author of that is wrong ,and is not qualified to have a opinion or to do research because the people with the PH'D are always right.
What a load of *smile*.
Have a look at both,the second one is very comprehensive ,and a long read.

Known unknowns: controversy over CSIRO’s electricity report reveals an uncomfortable truth

Comparing costs of power from different plants is extremely difficult.

www.vu.edu.au

The six fundamental flaws underpinning the energy transition - The Centre for Independent Studies

Executive summary The Australian Government wants to transition our electricity system to net zero carbon emissions by relying on wind …

www.cis.org.au

 

[bengal tigers]

this is what Facebook researchers do.

1. believe vested nonsense blindly and
2. say 'prove it' when presented with facts that prove it.

Facebook and an inability to discern,

threatens truth, democracy, peace and the planet.

No thats what people on pre do ,anything that doesn't meet there narrative or agenda or political preference is wrong .
What Willo and myself and a few other's are saying,,we need 24'7 secure power,and renewables aren't going to provide that ,NUCLEAR will,and can work in conjunction with renewables.

 

[eZyT]

No thats what people on pre do ,anything that doesn't meet there narrative or agenda or political preference is wrong .
What Willo and myself and a few other's are saying,,we need 24'7 secure power,and renewables aren't going to provide that ,NUCLEAR will,and can work in conjunction with renewables.

im not anti Nuke as part of a low carbon energy grid.

but there's an enormous amount of bullcrap being spouted about renewables and nukes,

which are being injected into our culture wars, driven by powerful vested interested

bottom line for me is

1. we can't consume our way to a better planet; we need to use less, low carbon, energy.
2. fossil fuel lobby is rich and powerful and enmeshed amongst political power in Australia through our donation and lobby set up and wended to be more discerning about the information which informs our opinions and voting.

has anyone on here ever had the meat spoil in the freezer, or caught pneumonia,

due to lack of power?

my power still seems relatively cheap and reliable.

I dont really get it all.

but I do find the seemingly idealogical hatred of solar and wind it quite unfathomable.

I celebrate my solar hot water, which provides a piping hot shower for free every day, as a bit of a miracle.

ditto the windmill that pumps water uphill, low maintenance and for free.

Hating a windmill is akin to hating Marcus Bontempelli to me

 

[Sintiger]

No thats what people on pre do ,anything that doesn't meet there narrative or agenda or political preference is wrong .

If the cap fits ......

 

[eZyT]

What your trying to say,is the Author of that is wrong ,and is not qualified to have a opinion or to do research because the people with the PH'D are always right.
What a load of *smile*.
Have a look at both,the second one is very comprehensive ,and a long read.

definitely not saying a person with a PHD is always right.

what im saying Is that

1. when weighing up opposing information, if one side has phd's in the field, and the other doesn't, the phd's gain additional weighting. for the simple reason, they've looked at the issue at hand for at least a decade, unmotivated by money (a PHD student is on about $35k a year for 4-5 years). if both sides have a phd, ill weigh according to the institution they studied at. if the PhD's still weigh the same, I'll look at funding of the study. Pretty basic stuff. Bruce Mountain in the first doc seems to check out - but he believes unequivocally in human induced climate change attributable to fossil fuels - how do peep go with that?

2. im not going to take seriously a publication on energy offered by an organisation who draw their funding from fossil fuel donations.

as I wouldn't take health advice from a tobacco funded group,

or social advice from a gambling source.

again, pretty basic stuff.

CSIRO are independent of government and corporate funding. there's a separation of power that isn't there with IPA and The CIA etc.

and if I took an hour to read the doc you proffer, took notes, and took another half hour to critique it,

you'de go 'prove it'

making the process a waste of time.

equally, ill make concessions and go 'yeah nukes have a place'

and you'll go 'thats what Big Wind doesn't want you to know'

if we are gonna build Nuclear reactors, I think it would be reasonable to build them where the opposition to wind and solar was loudest?

if that dont pass the pub test, then the pub test isn't worth the beer thats spilt on it.

 

[bengal tigers]

definitely not saying a person with a PHD is always right.

what im saying Is that

1. when weighing up opposing information, if one side has phd's in the field, and the other doesn't, the phd's gain additional weighting. for the simple reason, they've looked at the issue at hand for at least a decade, unmotivated by money (a PHD student is on about $35k a year for 4-5 years). if both sides have a phd, ill weigh according to the institution they studied at. if the PhD's still weigh the same, I'll look at funding of the study. Pretty basic stuff. Bruce Mountain in the first doc seems to check out - but he believes unequivocally in human induced climate change attributable to fossil fuels - how do peep go with that?

2. im not going to take seriously a publication on energy offered by an organisation who draw their funding from fossil fuel donations.

as I wouldn't take health advice from a tobacco funded group,

or social advice from a gambling source.

again, pretty basic stuff.

CSIRO are independent of government and corporate funding. there's a separation of power that isn't there with IPA and The CIA etc.

and if I took an hour to read the doc you proffer, took notes, and took another half hour to critique it,

you'de go 'prove it'

making the process a waste of time.

equally, ill make concessions and go 'yeah nukes have a place'

and you'll go 'thats what Big Wind doesn't want you to know'

if we are gonna build Nuclear reactors, I think it would be reasonable to build them where the opposition to wind and solar was loudest?

if that dont pass the pub test, then the pub test isn't worth the beer thats spilt on it.

The CSRIO do Receive government funding,and a large amount is into renewables.
Do the CSRIO accually have anyone who is qualified in Nuclear,,l can't find any?,but they seem to have plenty who think they know about the costs.

Governance - GISERA

CSIRO’s research status and experience in social, economic and ecological sciences allows it to provide impartial, integrated research to industry, regulators and the wider Australian community. This research has long supported communities, governments and industries with interests in managing...

gisera.csiro.au

 

[Wildride]

The CSRIO do Receive government funding,and a large amount is into renewables.
Do the CSRIO accually have anyone who is qualified in Nuclear,,l can't find any?,but they seem to have plenty who think they know about the costs.

Governance - GISERA

CSIRO’s research status and experience in social, economic and ecological sciences allows it to provide impartial, integrated research to industry, regulators and the wider Australian community. This research has long supported communities, governments and industries with interests in managing...

gisera.csiro.au

CSIRO does receive federal gov funding as appropriation - it is then free to allocate those funds as it sees fit within its strategy and charter to provide impact for Australian industry.

It is fiercely independent from policy, it provides scientific outputs in domains relevant for Aus industry. It is wrong to say it receives gov appropriation funding for research into renewables specifically.

 

[eZyT]

The CSRIO do Receive government funding,and a large amount is into renewables.
Do the CSRIO accually have anyone who is qualified in Nuclear,,l can't find any?,but they seem to have plenty who think they know about the costs.

Governance - GISERA

CSIRO’s research status and experience in social, economic and ecological sciences allows it to provide impartial, integrated research to industry, regulators and the wider Australian community. This research has long supported communities, governments and industries with interests in managing...

gisera.csiro.au

I dont know.

look for names like Kurchetocov and Lipakov and Chevoisky on the door I suppose?

can't imagine we'd hire too many Nuke blokes, while we have a moratorium on nukes?

My understanding of Nuclear energy is it is incredibly efficient and incredibly toxic.

I dont think the efficiency or toxicity would apply to any other energy?

Very high return for very high risk?

thats on one hand.

im assuming we all agree that Coal and Gas needs phasing out or we cook?

then renewables aren't going to produce the power to weight of nukes, but equally dont carry the risk?

what is the risk with renewables? they can't meet surge power while we get them right? critical battery mineral price rises?

did anyone die or lose their livelihood when S.A experienced some blackouts a few year back?

how did that disruption and cost compare to Chernobyl or Fukushima?

 

[bengal tigers]

I dont know.

look for names like Kurchetocov and Lipakov and Chevoisky on the door I suppose?

can't imagine we'd hire too many Nuke blokes, while we have a moratorium on nukes?

My understanding of Nuclear energy is it is incredibly efficient and incredibly toxic.

I dont think the efficiency or toxicity would apply to any other energy?

Very high return for very high risk?

thats on one hand.

im assuming we all agree that Coal and Gas needs phasing out or we cook?

then renewables aren't going to produce the power to weight of nukes, but equally dont carry the risk?

what is the risk with renewables? they can't meet surge power while we get them right? critical battery mineral price rises?

did anyone die or lose their livelihood when S.A experienced some blackouts a few year back?

how did that disruption and cost compare to Chernobyl or Fukushima?

Well l guess if Nuclear is safe for our submariners to sleep next to,it must be safe for us to use as well.Labor is on board and has no problem with it,
And with renewables needing replacing ,solar/wind/batteries etc every 10-20 years ,financially it makes more sense to go to nuclear power.
And nuclear power plants required a lot less land .well a huge amount less land.

Physical Footprint comparison | Greens for nuclear energy

greensfornuclear.energy

And in 2017 the CSIRO estimated the costs to go all renewable to be 1 trillion,there 21-22 report estimates around 500billion.
Nuclear is still cheaper,and we can't get the full costs so far for all the renewables rolled out and future projects along with subsides from the Labor government,either they don't know or don't want to reveal it.
They have been asked by reporters for the info,and none can give it.
In saying that ,they have a cheek asking for the costing of the nuke plants,when the coalition aren't in power YET

Technological innovation will drive change in Australia's energy system

Our analysis from 2017 estimated it would cost Australia a trillion dollars to convert to renewables. Our current estimate is $500 billion. A large part of this is because of recent technological innovation.

www.csiro.au

 

[Willo]

im not anti Nuke as part of a low carbon energy grid.

but there's an enormous amount of bullcrap being spouted about renewables and nukes,
which are being injected into our culture wars, driven by powerful vested interested

Very true, it often depends on how the business interests and the lobby groups

bottom line for me is

1. we can't consume our way to a better planet; we need to use less, low carbon, energy.
2. fossil fuel lobby is rich and powerful and enmeshed amongst political power in Australia through our donation and lobby set up and wended to be more discerning about the information which informs our opinions and voting.

Agreed

has anyone on here ever had the meat spoil in the freezer, or caught pneumonia,

A few times when the power went down for a few days. Overload from the grid in Victoria and due to storms brings the grid towers down on another occasion.

How common are islandings and transmission tower failures in the NEM?

In light of recent events, Dan Lee does some digging to find historical incidences of islandings and transmission tower failures.

wattclarity.com.au

I can’t find when the overload tripping then recloser issue. But I think from memory it was 5 days. Everything in fridges and freezers were gone. Some people had camping generators and saved some. But there were extenuating circumstances.

due to lack of power?

my power still seems relatively cheap and reliable.

Mines not cheap, reasonably reliable in the outskirts of a capital city. It keeps going up and the FIT keeps getting reduced. But we have plenty of power outages. Not sure what all the causes are, but it happens . I’m lucky I’ve got 8.5kw of solar and a 10kw home battery. Lucky for me I’m a believer in renewables and have them installed. And use them.

I dont really get it all.

but I do find the seemingly idealogical hatred of solar and wind it quite unfathomable.

Who has a “hatred of solar and wind?” I’ve yet to see any evidence of that on this thread.
No doubt there are plenty of shortcomings with solar and wind generation being weather dependent. But everyone knows that for a fact. There’s no”hate” to point that out or that they need a storage system to provide power 24/7 or when wind isn’t blowing or is too strong and the turbines need to be braked.

I celebrate my solar hot water, which provides a piping hot shower for free every day, as a bit of a miracle.

I have plenty of friends who use a Solarhart HWS. Over winter here south of Adelaide it’s just about entirely useless. Not quite but very early. They have to run it on (electrical mains) boost during the winter months. Great for over 8 months of the year, useless, especially for a household with over 2 people.Even further north in Broken Hill, Wilcannia and Menindee. Not as often but still for weeks at a time when there were days of inclement weather and mainly during the winter months.
But once again, a perfect example of solar being weather dependant. In good sunny conditions, just perfect.

ditto the windmill that pumps water uphill, low maintenance and for free.

That’s a no brainer. Perfect use of that technology. Some have solar charging battery operated cameras on watering troughs, tanks etc. and that’s a great use and help to a lot of people. Remote monitoring saves times, fuel etc.

Hating a windmill is akin to hating Marcus Bontempelli to me

Seems to be a lot of hate in your world. I don’t know of anyone that does “hate” the Bont.
A lot of the old style windmills (or wind operated pumps) on properties are quite picturesque.
Now these, I’m not sure of. That’s just visual pollution.It doesn’t do much for me, but I’m sure there are people who find them attractive.

 

[IanG]

CSIRO does receive federal gov funding as appropriation - it is then free to allocate those funds as it sees fit within its strategy and charter to provide impact for Australian industry.

It is fiercely independent from policy, it provides scientific outputs in domains relevant for Aus industry. It is wrong to say it receives gov appropriation funding for research into renewables specifically.

Spot on, as someone who knows some CSIRO scientists including the current CSIRO CEO its insulting to suggest they do not provide independent advice.

 

[Willo]

I don’t mean to be dismissive but I was going to write and include some links, but the reality is, there’s been hundreds of pages already covering this.
If the Johnny come latelies want answers, they can go back over what’s already been posted.