Dynasty or Rebuild ?

[blx]

We will recruit players to suit our system so I guess it really comes down to our system. That's my "guess".

You would think Aerobic capacity is a biggie but who knows, there are too many variables.

I'll leave that up to more 'keen' eyes and minds to work out.

I'm disappointed for players like Markov and Ross who I think deserve a crack this year. I understand its hard to leave out for more proven players but I guess this is what every 'Dynasty' team has to grapple with.

I hope Markov stays. I feel he is gonna be a great asset but atm we will get unders.

 

[Jonesracing82]

We have been doing a rebuild on the run while at the top. keep it going i say

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

70's Richmond reacted to finals defeats. We're much more measured in the professional era but I expect results this week and possibly next will help to cement decisions on how we stay ahead of/reassert our lead on the competition.

Interesting that Geelong - oldest team ever - has more or less locked in 33yo Shaun Higgins for next year. Collingwood, a historically-young but ageing side, made a bid for 33yo Josh Kennedy. With lists being reduced it may just be that seasoned players continue to be the rule for the top teams and young blokes continue to be starved, except at clubs that have no choice but to play youth.

 

[jb03]

70's Richmond reacted to finals defeats. We're much more measured in the professional era but I expect results this week and possibly next will help to cement decisions on how we stay ahead of/reassert our lead on the competition.

Interesting that Geelong - oldest team ever - has more or less locked in 33yo Shaun Higgins for next year. Collingwood, a historically-young but ageing side, made a bid for 33yo Josh Kennedy. With lists being reduced it may just be that seasoned players continue to be the rule for the top teams and young blokes continue to be starved, except at clubs that have no choice but to play youth.

I think Geelong has three round 1 picks or something good from the Kelly robbery. They are unfortunately well placed to be a good team for a few years.

 

[Baloo]

 

[Sintiger]

I posted in the trade whispers section about an interview with Matt Clarke on the afl site.
He talked glowingly about RCD, Dow, Martyn, Ralphsmith and Miller and others we have drafted in the last 2 years and how we see enormous growth in the youth we have.
My feeling is that we are backing ourselves to plug and play with thIs group for a while yet and think that we have plenty coming though.

 

[Sintiger]

I posted in the trade whispers section about an interview with Matt Clarke on the afl site.
He talked glowingly about RCD, Dow, Martyn, Ralphsmith and Miller and others we have drafted in the last 2 years and how we see enormous growth in the youth we have.
My feeling is that we are backing ourselves to plug and play with thIs group for a while yet and think that we have plenty coming though.

The other thing he said of interest was that Collier-Dawkins was actually going to be picked this season a couple of times and he picked up niggles at the wrong time. He said it was just poor timing for him.

 

[Brodders17]

I think Geelong has three round 1 picks or something good from the Kelly robbery. They are unfortunately well placed to be a good team for a few years.

Not really. They havent had many 1st rd picks in recent year, the ones they have had have been in the teens, and most of them havent turned out any good.
Plus take a quick look at their list. They have about 4 players under 28 who have played decent footy- Parfitt, Miers, Henry and Ratagolia (who now cant get a game.) They have about 11 regulars over 29. They are going to need to continue to recruit from other clubs to keep near the top.

 

[AngryAnt]

Not really. They havent had many 1st rd picks in recent year, the ones they have had have been in the teens, and most of them havent turned out any good.
Plus take a quick look at their list. They have about 4 players under 28 who have played decent footy- Parfitt, Miers, Henry and Ratagolia (who now cant get a game.) They have about 11 regulars over 29. They are going to need to continue to recruit from other clubs to keep near the top.

Yeah, they'll need to make a decision on a full rebuild or a top-up this year and next I reckon. We are in a similar position but not quite as old and our crop of young players seems bigger and better. We hopefully can transition better.

 

[DavidSSS]

Maybe we should go after Ratagolia, he shows some talent. Ruck/forward? We could do with one of them. How old is he I wonder?

DS

 

[toothless]

Maybe we should go after Ratagolia, he shows some talent. Ruck/forward? We could do with one of them. How old is he I wonder?

DS

22, definitely a good Chol upgrade. Doubt the divers would trade him out though

 

[DavidSSS]

22, definitely a good Chol upgrade. Doubt the divers would trade him out though

Isn't he too young for them? Salary cap space maybe?

DS

 

[Jonesracing82]

70's Richmond reacted to finals defeats. We're much more measured in the professional era but I expect results this week and possibly next will help to cement decisions on how we stay ahead of/reassert our lead on the competition.

Interesting that Geelong - oldest team ever - has more or less locked in 33yo Shaun Higgins for next year. Collingwood, a historically-young but ageing side, made a bid for 33yo Josh Kennedy. With lists being reduced it may just be that seasoned players continue to be the rule for the top teams and young blokes continue to be starved, except at clubs that have no choice but to play youth.

For mine Cats & Pies chasing older Players wreaks of desperation

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

For mine Cats & Pies chasing older Players wreaks of desperation

It's Hawthorn-like in stringing things out. Geelong has done it incredibly well over a long period without winning a flag, but there has to be a limit. They've been top three for age since 2010, except 2015 (5th, finished 10th) and 2018 (7th, finished 8th). Don't know whether Hawkins has another year as good as 2020 in him; think this really is last chance saloon for them as far as flags go. Doubt either will be able to prise Cameron loose given his love for the waterfront lifestyle; Corio Bay doesn't quite cut it.

 

[seven]

Ha! Dallas, watch it when I was a kid.

 

[Baloo]

Ha! Dallas, watch it when I was a kid.

Huh? No, it's Falcon's Crest

 

[mrposhman]

Yeah, they'll need to make a decision on a full rebuild or a top-up this year and next I reckon. We are in a similar position but not quite as old and our crop of young players seems bigger and better. We hopefully can transition better.

Geelong are still desperately trying to win a flag with the current group. Trading for Higgins and Steven has year is clear evidence of this.

Their young kids bar Parfitt are not coming through and will be given even less time next season with the trades they are talking about. You only have to look at the top end of their drafts over the last 10 years to see where they are struggling. I've just taken their 1st 3 picks in each draft as a gauge.

2010 - 15 - Smedts (delisted), 23 - Guthrie (good), 37 - Horlin-Smith (now at GCS)
2011 - 32 - Hamling (now with Freo), 34 - Kersten (delisted), 48 Murdoch (now at GCS)
2012 - 16 - Thurlow (now at Sydney, 77 - Hartman (delisted), 92 - Stringer (delisted)
2013 - 16 - Lang (now at Carlton), 36 - Jansen (deslited), 41 - Kolodjashnij (Good)
2014 - 10 - Cockatoo (bust, look to be trading out), 47 - Gregson (delisted), 55 - Gore (delisted)
2015 - 59 - Garner (now at Bulldogs), 66 - Menegola (Good), 69 - Buzza (now at Port)
2016 - 26 - Parfitt (Good), 40 - Stewart (Good), 43 - Ratugolea (looks ok at the moment)
2017 - 22 - Fogarty (OK, but looking at possibly trading out), 24 - Kelly (now at West Coast), 36 - Constable (potentially looking at a trade)
2018 - 15 - Clark (good), 48 - Jarvis (too early to tell), 50 - Kennerley (too early to tell)
2019 - 16 - Stephens (too early to tell), 19 - De Koning (too early to tell), 41 - Evans (too early to tell)

I can't see any of those names really driving them forward over the next 10 years. I'd much rather have our kids than theirs. Potentially after this trade period, they might only retain Guthrie (28), Kolodjashnij (25), Menegola (28), Parfitt (22), Stewart (27) and Ratugolea (22) from drafts pre 2018. Only 2 of them are under 25.

They NEED to take all 3 first round picks to the draft but my guess is they won't end up with 3 first rounders.

 

[Jonesracing82]

It's Hawthorn-like in stringing things out. Geelong has done it incredibly well over a long period without winning a flag, but there has to be a limit. They've been top three for age since 2010, except 2015 (5th, finished 10th) and 2018 (7th, finished 8th). Don't know whether Hawkins has another year as good as 2020 in him; think this really is last chance saloon for them as far as flags go. Doubt either will be able to prise Cameron loose given his love for the waterfront lifestyle; Corio Bay doesn't quite cut it.

Difference is Hawks won flags doing it the others didn't. It's fine going all in but it bites twice as hard if it fails. look at how long it took the Saints to get back to mid table after Lyon went all in yr on yr... Esp in Cats case they are already the oldest side ever to have played. all thier best players are "1 yr older" next yr & beyond

 

[Jonesracing82]

Geelong are still desperately trying to win a flag with the current group. Trading for Higgins and Steven has year is clear evidence of this.

Their young kids bar Parfitt are not coming through and will be given even less time next season with the trades they are talking about. You only have to look at the top end of their drafts over the last 10 years to see where they are struggling. I've just taken their 1st 3 picks in each draft as a gauge.

2010 - 15 - Smedts (delisted), 23 - Guthrie (good), 37 - Horlin-Smith (now at GCS)
2011 - 32 - Hamling (now with Freo), 34 - Kersten (delisted), 48 Murdoch (now at GCS)
2012 - 16 - Thurlow (now at Sydney, 77 - Hartman (delisted), 92 - Stringer (delisted)
2013 - 16 - Lang (now at Carlton), 36 - Jansen (deslited), 41 - Kolodjashnij (Good)
2014 - 10 - Cockatoo (bust, look to be trading out), 47 - Gregson (delisted), 55 - Gore (delisted)
2015 - 59 - Garner (now at Bulldogs), 66 - Menegola (Good), 69 - Buzza (now at Port)
2016 - 26 - Parfitt (Good), 40 - Stewart (Good), 43 - Ratugolea (looks ok at the moment)
2017 - 22 - Fogarty (OK, but looking at possibly trading out), 24 - Kelly (now at West Coast), 36 - Constable (potentially looking at a trade)
2018 - 15 - Clark (good), 48 - Jarvis (too early to tell), 50 - Kennerley (too early to tell)
2019 - 16 - Stephens (too early to tell), 19 - De Koning (too early to tell), 41 - Evans (too early to tell)

I can't see any of those names really driving them forward over the next 10 years. I'd much rather have our kids than theirs. Potentially after this trade period, they might only retain Guthrie (28), Kolodjashnij (25), Menegola (28), Parfitt (22), Stewart (27) and Ratugolea (22) from drafts pre 2018. Only 2 of them are under 25.

They NEED to take all 3 first round picks to the draft but my guess is they won't end up with 3 first rounders.

I get 2 take aways from this, 1 is that it's actually a miracle they have managed to stay up for so long but there's also a massive cliff looming. 2. The "Steven Wells has done it again" saying the media love is a myth!

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Difference is Hawks won flags doing it the others didn't. It's fine going all in but it bites twice as hard if it fails. look at how long it took the Saints to get back to mid table after Lyon went all in yr on yr... Esp in Cats case they are already the oldest side ever to have played. all thier best players are "1 yr older" next yr & beyond

Geelong has remained in contention for well over a decade. They’re the benchmark, no other club has done it as well as them. But as you say, it’s not sustainable forever, the draft and salary cap see to that. Their u25’s look pretty thin now and they’re at risk of developing a huge list gap if the vets go over the cliff. They’ve mostly been able to string out careers to their maximum. Good luck maybe, and good management.