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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Yeah, although they can modify it like with flu vaccine over time. What we hope is that it's still got efficacy against the new variant.
maybe they will have like a yearly booster shot like the flu?? Im guessing that
Good Age article here from an epidemiologist. Makes it pretty clear why doing nothing "waiting for a road map or an open-up date" is a terrible strategy. The faster the population gets vaxxed, the better.
Updated June 7, 2021 — 4.42pmfirst published at 3.18pm
Lockdowns should be avoided at all costs, and we can never underestimate the social and economic costs of bringing an entire state or city to a grinding halt. But one wonders, to paraphrase the words of Paul Keating, if this was the lockdown we had to have.
There is no doubt that some complacency had set in as the memories of what we had been through over the past 12 months had begun to fade. This is understandable, as the longer we go without community transmission, the easier it is to believe the threat of COVID has passed. The fact that it hasn’t passed has been rammed home this past couple of weeks in Victoria. The whole country needs to take note, however, as this is a stark reminder of how things can change quickly.
The Fearless Girl Statue in Federation Square dons a face mask.Credit:Getty Images
While accepting that we have a lot of work to do to halt this outbreak, we needn’t despair over what has occurred in Victoria. There is no doubt this lockdown has brought the feeling that we are living in the movie Groundhog Day and nothing has really changed since 2020, but this is definitely not the case. The situation we face now is very different to the situation we faced in 2020. And although we may find it hard to appreciate right now, there’s a great deal to be positive about.
It’s important not to be Pollyanna-ish about our situation, however, and acknowledge that the fundamental challenge we are facing has not changed. We are still dealing with a formidable foe, a virus that will exploit any weaknesses in our defences to spread quickly throughout the population.
And we still have a mostly non-immune population that is highly susceptible to COVID. While these two conditions prevail, the general level of threat the virus poses to the community remains essentially as it was throughout 2020. The arrival of new variants only adds to the challenge.
There are significant ways, however, in which our situation has improved. Firstly, and most importantly, we have one of the most powerful additions to our toolkit to fight the virus: a vaccine. And of course we don’t just have one vaccine, we have a number at our disposal, all of them incredibly effective and safe. In years to come as we look back on this time with less emotion there will be more appreciation of the magnitude of the scientific achievement it was to develop these vaccines and have them available to get into arms so quickly. We need to be careful not to squander this opportunity.
It’s essential to appreciate that each vaccine delivered protects us, first and foremost, at an individual level. Being vaccinated may be the difference between having no disease or only mild symptoms, and suffering severe illness, being hospitalised and even potentially dying.
Although the aged care rollout has had its well-documented problems, this strategy may already potentially save lives during the current outbreak in Victoria, given how mild illness is in those who have been vaccinated and been infected in aged care so far. Every life potentially saved should be celebrated.
While there has been a focus on herd immunity, we risk not appreciating the population benefits of getting vaccinated. Herd immunity is not a threshold in the strict sense, as we do receive a benefit from vaccination even if the threshold is not met. It’s more usefully considered a gradient, with the more people vaccinated, the harder it is for the virus to spread. And the harder it is for the virus to spread, the less will be our dependence on public health measures, including lockdowns, to control transmission.
The other major difference between now and 2020 is we have had more than a year to stress-test our public health response systems throughout the country. Of course, none of these systems have been put under more pressure than those in Victoria, and arguably none have improved more.
Melbourne in lockdown.Credit:Eddie Jim
The key to this improvement has been the decentralisation of the contract tracing system and the adoption of improved technologies to support this vital public health activity. We now can have confidence that we have a world-class system and this will pay dividends both in dealing with the current outbreak, as we have witnessed, as well as the longer term.
So while it’s disappointing to have had to endure another lockdown, all the signs are that we can have some optimism about restrictions being eased in Melbourne on Thursday. There is also good reason to expect that lockdowns will become less necessary in future if we all continue do the right thing. This includes following all of the public health advice, including getting tested if you have symptoms, wearing masks where appropriate and using QR codes.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...safe-or-stop-complaining-20210604-p57y3w.html
Hassan Vally is Associate Professor in Epidemiology at La Trobe University.
Opinion
We’re stuck in Groundhog Day, but this is the lockdown we had to have
Hassan Vally
Associate Professor in Epidemiology at La Trobe UniversityUpdated June 7, 2021 — 4.42pmfirst published at 3.18pm
Lockdowns should be avoided at all costs, and we can never underestimate the social and economic costs of bringing an entire state or city to a grinding halt. But one wonders, to paraphrase the words of Paul Keating, if this was the lockdown we had to have.
There is no doubt that some complacency had set in as the memories of what we had been through over the past 12 months had begun to fade. This is understandable, as the longer we go without community transmission, the easier it is to believe the threat of COVID has passed. The fact that it hasn’t passed has been rammed home this past couple of weeks in Victoria. The whole country needs to take note, however, as this is a stark reminder of how things can change quickly.
The Fearless Girl Statue in Federation Square dons a face mask.Credit:Getty Images
While accepting that we have a lot of work to do to halt this outbreak, we needn’t despair over what has occurred in Victoria. There is no doubt this lockdown has brought the feeling that we are living in the movie Groundhog Day and nothing has really changed since 2020, but this is definitely not the case. The situation we face now is very different to the situation we faced in 2020. And although we may find it hard to appreciate right now, there’s a great deal to be positive about.
It’s important not to be Pollyanna-ish about our situation, however, and acknowledge that the fundamental challenge we are facing has not changed. We are still dealing with a formidable foe, a virus that will exploit any weaknesses in our defences to spread quickly throughout the population.
And we still have a mostly non-immune population that is highly susceptible to COVID. While these two conditions prevail, the general level of threat the virus poses to the community remains essentially as it was throughout 2020. The arrival of new variants only adds to the challenge.
There are significant ways, however, in which our situation has improved. Firstly, and most importantly, we have one of the most powerful additions to our toolkit to fight the virus: a vaccine. And of course we don’t just have one vaccine, we have a number at our disposal, all of them incredibly effective and safe. In years to come as we look back on this time with less emotion there will be more appreciation of the magnitude of the scientific achievement it was to develop these vaccines and have them available to get into arms so quickly. We need to be careful not to squander this opportunity.
It’s essential to appreciate that each vaccine delivered protects us, first and foremost, at an individual level. Being vaccinated may be the difference between having no disease or only mild symptoms, and suffering severe illness, being hospitalised and even potentially dying.
Although the aged care rollout has had its well-documented problems, this strategy may already potentially save lives during the current outbreak in Victoria, given how mild illness is in those who have been vaccinated and been infected in aged care so far. Every life potentially saved should be celebrated.
While there has been a focus on herd immunity, we risk not appreciating the population benefits of getting vaccinated. Herd immunity is not a threshold in the strict sense, as we do receive a benefit from vaccination even if the threshold is not met. It’s more usefully considered a gradient, with the more people vaccinated, the harder it is for the virus to spread. And the harder it is for the virus to spread, the less will be our dependence on public health measures, including lockdowns, to control transmission.
The other major difference between now and 2020 is we have had more than a year to stress-test our public health response systems throughout the country. Of course, none of these systems have been put under more pressure than those in Victoria, and arguably none have improved more.
Melbourne in lockdown.Credit:Eddie Jim
The key to this improvement has been the decentralisation of the contract tracing system and the adoption of improved technologies to support this vital public health activity. We now can have confidence that we have a world-class system and this will pay dividends both in dealing with the current outbreak, as we have witnessed, as well as the longer term.
So while it’s disappointing to have had to endure another lockdown, all the signs are that we can have some optimism about restrictions being eased in Melbourne on Thursday. There is also good reason to expect that lockdowns will become less necessary in future if we all continue do the right thing. This includes following all of the public health advice, including getting tested if you have symptoms, wearing masks where appropriate and using QR codes.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/...safe-or-stop-complaining-20210604-p57y3w.html
Hassan Vally is Associate Professor in Epidemiology at La Trobe University.
Yep DS. Important to state that existing vaccines will still give some level of immunity even with new strains - that could be the difference between life and death for some people.
Jab is still good against delta variant according to UK data.
www.abc.net.au
and
While effectiveness of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines does appear to diminish against the variant, experts say recent UK data is reassuring, showing that both offer relatively good protection after two doses.
‘The effectiveness of one dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca is only 33% against B.1617.2 [Delta]; but this rises to 88% after two doses for Pfizer and 59.8% after two doses of AstraZeneca,’ Professor MacIntyre said.
‘This means it does have some resistance to vaccines, although not as much as the South African variant [Beta].
Delta COVID-19 variant 40 per cent more transmissible, UK Health Secretary says
The variant, also detected in Melbourne, is now the dominant strain in the United Kingdom, but two vaccine doses are effective, the Health Secretary says.
www.abc.net.au
and
While effectiveness of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines does appear to diminish against the variant, experts say recent UK data is reassuring, showing that both offer relatively good protection after two doses.
‘The effectiveness of one dose of Pfizer or AstraZeneca is only 33% against B.1617.2 [Delta]; but this rises to 88% after two doses for Pfizer and 59.8% after two doses of AstraZeneca,’ Professor MacIntyre said.
‘This means it does have some resistance to vaccines, although not as much as the South African variant [Beta].
newsGP - What does presence of the Delta variant mean for Australia?
Health authorities have said the variant appears to have greater transmissibility, including among children.
www1.racgp.org.au
The other point is what do they mean by effectiveness?
If, by effectiveness, they are talking about stopping the spread in its tracks, then those numbers are very good.
If the vaccines don't stop the spread but have a higher rate of preventing severe illness and death, then they are very effective.
DS
If, by effectiveness, they are talking about stopping the spread in its tracks, then those numbers are very good.
If the vaccines don't stop the spread but have a higher rate of preventing severe illness and death, then they are very effective.
DS
Last time, we were told the requirements for the staged easing of restrictions. Then, once the benchmarks were met, or getting close to being met, the goalposts were moved.
And, I'm not sure if the modelling that is used to make the lockdown decisions considers variables such as improved contact tracing. It wasn't an input adjustment last time, even with the government stated contact tracing improvements between June 2020 and October 2020.
Somehow I’m not comforted by much or any of that. For example, do people here in Australia care much about a quarantine that’s being run in another country - especially India ?
So the first time you returned from India you went straight into a home quarantine ?
Melbourne finally set for lockdown reprieve on Friday
Senior Victorian government sources say they are very confident the city’s lockdown will not be extended again, unless there is a dramatic rise in mystery cases.
Restrictions similar to those that regional Victoria moved to last Friday are expected to instead come into force in the city.
These are likely to include mask wearing indoors, bans or caps on home gatherings and public get-togethers, and caps and density limits on offices, venues, bars and restaurants.
But schools are expected to return to face-to-face learning and children’s sport to resume.
“We are certainly on course to lift the lockdown as scheduled,” one senior source said.
“Unless there is a massive shock, we would be expecting that to happen.”
Senior Victorian government sources say they are very confident the city’s lockdown will not be extended again, unless there is a dramatic rise in mystery cases.
Restrictions similar to those that regional Victoria moved to last Friday are expected to instead come into force in the city.
These are likely to include mask wearing indoors, bans or caps on home gatherings and public get-togethers, and caps and density limits on offices, venues, bars and restaurants.
But schools are expected to return to face-to-face learning and children’s sport to resume.
“We are certainly on course to lift the lockdown as scheduled,” one senior source said.
“Unless there is a massive shock, we would be expecting that to happen.”
I can see why we are needing an expert in logistics. Also need better communication between the states and the Feds health departments. So many doses could be in arms if the states used all their stockpiles. While the feds need to keep pushing out what they have (after it’s been tested), to the states and GP’s. It’s like they have all been holding back for a second dose.
The only flaw to people living under the sea is they cant breathe. If they could grow gills, it would be a great option
2 cases. both linked to existing cases. i think we're gonna need a zero by thursday to give oursleves any chance of ending lockdown, but i think this ^^^ is most likely.
It's a 2 dose vaccine and the supply is dodgy, I'd be holding on to second doses too if I was running this.
If you can rely on the supply then fine but the rollout of the vaccine shows you can't. Lots of GPs out there who are not getting the number of vaccines they were promised.
2 is a good number, and, far more important, we know where they link to and they were already isolating from what I saw. Slim chance we can open for the weekend, I suspect they might extend to Monday night which would actually be reasonable given the risks associated with a long weekend, but hopefully we can be out of this soon.
The number of locations where it might have spread seems to be increasing at a far slower rate which is also a sign we can reduce restrictions.
DS
If you can rely on the supply then fine but the rollout of the vaccine shows you can't. Lots of GPs out there who are not getting the number of vaccines they were promised.
2 is a good number, and, far more important, we know where they link to and they were already isolating from what I saw. Slim chance we can open for the weekend, I suspect they might extend to Monday night which would actually be reasonable given the risks associated with a long weekend, but hopefully we can be out of this soon.
The number of locations where it might have spread seems to be increasing at a far slower rate which is also a sign we can reduce restrictions.
DS
‘The jabs are working’: Only three fully vaccinated people hospitalised in UK with Delta variant
Nearly 76 per cent of adults in the UK have had at least one shot of vaccines by AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna, and 52 per cent two doses.
