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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
So what does the Queensland lockdown now mean for the AFL season? May complicate any decision to put the grand final at the Gabba.
What a rollercoaster of a season!
What a rollercoaster of a season!
Adelaide women who breached quarantine to party in Coolbellup vow to return to WA
Isata Jalloh, 19, and Banchi Techana, 22, made obscene gestures to reporters and staff as they were escorted out of hotel quarantine to be flown back to South Australia on Thursday night.
McGowan cracks down on travel by federal politicians ahead of Parliament's return
The WA government has hit the state's federal ministers and MPs with "significant" new travel restrictions ahead of federal Parliament's return on Monday.
Some good numbers again today. Active cases outside of aged care and healthcare continue to decrease (down by 91 from yesterday) so we are now at 1930. If we can continue to decrease this by an average of 100 / day then we have a potential that our active cases could be very low within 3 weeks or before the Stage 4 restrictions end. I was expecting Stage 4 to be extended by 2-3 weeks at the end of the current restrictions but now I'm less sure, the next week or so will give us an indication. If new cases continue to decrease towards 100 and active cases decrease to around 1300 over the next week, then there is a chance that the Stage 4 restrictions end date is met.
BTW - If we ignore the massive restatement of active cases from the 20th, the 7 day average reduction in active cases outside of healthcare and aged care is 139 / day so expecting a 100 / day decrease over the next 7 days is certainly feasible.
BTW - If we ignore the massive restatement of active cases from the 20th, the 7 day average reduction in active cases outside of healthcare and aged care is 139 / day so expecting a 100 / day decrease over the next 7 days is certainly feasible.
Indeed, 2 days in a row under 200 is good. Expect somewhat of a roller coaster but hopefully still heading down.
Still looking good on the multi-day averages.
7 Day trailing average is 223.71, last time it was lower was 14 July.
5 Day rolling average (19 Aug) is 205.4, last time it was lower was 10 July.
For the next 2 days we lose 279 and 280 off the front of the averages, so 2 days below 280 will see the multi-day averages go down. After that we need to see lower numbers or the averages will flatten out a bit. Flattening out wouldn't be so bad at this level, going up is where we get worried.
Looks like the current restrictions are working, let's hope they keep working.
Then we have to work out what we do in the medium to long term. I think it is time to think about quarantine facilities if this is going to be kept at a reasonable level in Australia but keeps going overseas. By quarantine facilities I don't mean hotels, I mean something like a military camp would work with reasonable facilities, but no luxury. You don't have to force people into these, just make it a condition of entry to Australia.
The other thing about quarantine - islands have often been used for quarantine over human history: there is a very good reason for that - they work!
DS
Still looking good on the multi-day averages.
7 Day trailing average is 223.71, last time it was lower was 14 July.
5 Day rolling average (19 Aug) is 205.4, last time it was lower was 10 July.
For the next 2 days we lose 279 and 280 off the front of the averages, so 2 days below 280 will see the multi-day averages go down. After that we need to see lower numbers or the averages will flatten out a bit. Flattening out wouldn't be so bad at this level, going up is where we get worried.
Looks like the current restrictions are working, let's hope they keep working.
Then we have to work out what we do in the medium to long term. I think it is time to think about quarantine facilities if this is going to be kept at a reasonable level in Australia but keeps going overseas. By quarantine facilities I don't mean hotels, I mean something like a military camp would work with reasonable facilities, but no luxury. You don't have to force people into these, just make it a condition of entry to Australia.
The other thing about quarantine - islands have often been used for quarantine over human history: there is a very good reason for that - they work!
DS
I think both of them are just unlucky to be ministers (small m) in a 1 in 100 year pandemic. Please feel sorry for them. Mikados does.
CMO says 'mistakes happen' as hotel security guard tests positive for COVID-19
Federal health authorities concede "mistakes happen" when it comes to security guards dealing with coronavirus hotel quarantine arrangements and the wearing of personal protective equipment.
Things are getting better but no one really knows why
Tom Whipple
The Times
August 22, 2020
At the beginning, when beds were full and deaths common, doctors were still trying to understand the best treatment for coronavirus. “In March, if you came in and had trouble breathing, you’d be put straight on a ventilator,” says Alison Pittard, dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine.
This was what, in frantic Zoom calls to Italy and China, they had been told was the best approach. The learning curve since then has been steep.
These days, Dr Pittard and her colleagues are more careful about who is put on ventilators, lest invasive treatment causes more problems. They also have a drug, dexamethasone, that can significantly improve survival among those who do reach ventilators.
It would be easy to claim that we are seeing the results of this. In Britain, even as recorded cases rise, deaths are not following. In the western world daily deaths and death rates are falling.
But Dr Pittard is not prepared to take credit on behalf of her colleagues. “Yes, the way we manage patients has changed,” she says. “But I don’t think that has had much impact on mortality.” Some statisticians have argued that the effect is an illusion, created by more testing. She disagrees, at least to the extent that more tests explain everything. “Something does appear to have changed. We don’t know for certain what that is at the moment.”
She has a theory though. It may not be that the disease has altered, or that treatment has. It could simply be that the people getting it have.
“I think the group of people who are being infected is different now,” she says. One explanation, favoured by Dr Pittard, is that the virus has already claimed the lives of those most at risk.
“I think the more susceptible people have got the virus and been sick with it,” she said. “Now the people who are getting it respond in a different way.”
Another, not necessarily mutually exclusive, suggestion was put forward this week by Dr Takeshi Kasai, a senior World Health Organisation official.
Covid-19, a disease of the old, is becoming an infection of the young. “People in their twenties, thirties and forties are driving the spread,” he said. “The epidemic is changing.”
In Britain, as the number of Covid-19 patients on ventilators continues to drop, from more than 3,000 to 70, infection rates have risen by 35 per cent among the under-44s. In Australia, the Philippines and Japan, more than half of new infections are now in the young.
In continental Europe too, where rising cases have not been matched by rising deaths, it seems like we are seeing a breaking of this year’s fragile social contract - that the young, who don’t get sick, are increasingly refusing to suffer on behalf of the old, who do.
That is, arguably, fine, provided it continues to spread only among the young. The problem is, says Richard Grewelle from Stanford University, that if Europe looks across the Atlantic it will see that this does not happen.
“When public spaces re-opened in May and June, young adults were more likely to be seen socialising than older adults,” he said. This could be seen most clearly in Florida where, a bit after what would traditionally have been spring break, there was a sudden spike in cases among those in their early twenties.
It did not stay there for long. “These individuals came in contact with older relatives and friends, which has driven the subsequent increase in deaths [now up two to three times since the daily lows in June]. Similar features are probably true in some European countries,” he said. If he is correct, then we would expect to see first a shift in the population getting infected then, a fortnight later, a rise in deaths.
With coronavirus, however, there is always another theory. Dr Paul Tambyah, president-elect of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, said that an increasingly common mutation in the coronavirus may be making it less deadly. It is a truism of virology that viruses, which have no interest in killing their host, evolve to be increasingly benign. They fade into the background to the point where they become a “common cold”. Is this what we are seeing?
It’s not impossible but, other scientists said, it’s unlikely. Professor Brendan Wren, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “It would be offering false hope to suppose it is weakening yet.” He did offer yet another explanation for why the disease’s apparent severity could be diminishing. It could be that what is key is not who it infects, but how.
“With hand hygiene and social distancing, the infectious dose would be lower,” he said. Instead of sitting next to someone on the bus and breathing in exhaled air for 15 minutes, we catch the virus as a glancing blow - and, like a glancing blow, can fight it off better.
As ever with the pandemic, simple questions have a complex answer - normally several. But if there is one lesson most virologists do agree on, it’s that countries have not yet gone wrong when they have prepared for the worst.
This is why Dr Pittard hopes that the idea the virus is weakening, or health services are getting stronger, does not take hold. “I wouldn’t want the public to be lulled into a false sense of security.”
Tom Whipple
The Times
August 22, 2020
At the beginning, when beds were full and deaths common, doctors were still trying to understand the best treatment for coronavirus. “In March, if you came in and had trouble breathing, you’d be put straight on a ventilator,” says Alison Pittard, dean of the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine.
This was what, in frantic Zoom calls to Italy and China, they had been told was the best approach. The learning curve since then has been steep.
These days, Dr Pittard and her colleagues are more careful about who is put on ventilators, lest invasive treatment causes more problems. They also have a drug, dexamethasone, that can significantly improve survival among those who do reach ventilators.
It would be easy to claim that we are seeing the results of this. In Britain, even as recorded cases rise, deaths are not following. In the western world daily deaths and death rates are falling.
But Dr Pittard is not prepared to take credit on behalf of her colleagues. “Yes, the way we manage patients has changed,” she says. “But I don’t think that has had much impact on mortality.” Some statisticians have argued that the effect is an illusion, created by more testing. She disagrees, at least to the extent that more tests explain everything. “Something does appear to have changed. We don’t know for certain what that is at the moment.”
She has a theory though. It may not be that the disease has altered, or that treatment has. It could simply be that the people getting it have.
“I think the group of people who are being infected is different now,” she says. One explanation, favoured by Dr Pittard, is that the virus has already claimed the lives of those most at risk.
“I think the more susceptible people have got the virus and been sick with it,” she said. “Now the people who are getting it respond in a different way.”
Another, not necessarily mutually exclusive, suggestion was put forward this week by Dr Takeshi Kasai, a senior World Health Organisation official.
Covid-19, a disease of the old, is becoming an infection of the young. “People in their twenties, thirties and forties are driving the spread,” he said. “The epidemic is changing.”
In Britain, as the number of Covid-19 patients on ventilators continues to drop, from more than 3,000 to 70, infection rates have risen by 35 per cent among the under-44s. In Australia, the Philippines and Japan, more than half of new infections are now in the young.
In continental Europe too, where rising cases have not been matched by rising deaths, it seems like we are seeing a breaking of this year’s fragile social contract - that the young, who don’t get sick, are increasingly refusing to suffer on behalf of the old, who do.
That is, arguably, fine, provided it continues to spread only among the young. The problem is, says Richard Grewelle from Stanford University, that if Europe looks across the Atlantic it will see that this does not happen.
“When public spaces re-opened in May and June, young adults were more likely to be seen socialising than older adults,” he said. This could be seen most clearly in Florida where, a bit after what would traditionally have been spring break, there was a sudden spike in cases among those in their early twenties.
It did not stay there for long. “These individuals came in contact with older relatives and friends, which has driven the subsequent increase in deaths [now up two to three times since the daily lows in June]. Similar features are probably true in some European countries,” he said. If he is correct, then we would expect to see first a shift in the population getting infected then, a fortnight later, a rise in deaths.
With coronavirus, however, there is always another theory. Dr Paul Tambyah, president-elect of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, said that an increasingly common mutation in the coronavirus may be making it less deadly. It is a truism of virology that viruses, which have no interest in killing their host, evolve to be increasingly benign. They fade into the background to the point where they become a “common cold”. Is this what we are seeing?
It’s not impossible but, other scientists said, it’s unlikely. Professor Brendan Wren, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “It would be offering false hope to suppose it is weakening yet.” He did offer yet another explanation for why the disease’s apparent severity could be diminishing. It could be that what is key is not who it infects, but how.
“With hand hygiene and social distancing, the infectious dose would be lower,” he said. Instead of sitting next to someone on the bus and breathing in exhaled air for 15 minutes, we catch the virus as a glancing blow - and, like a glancing blow, can fight it off better.
As ever with the pandemic, simple questions have a complex answer - normally several. But if there is one lesson most virologists do agree on, it’s that countries have not yet gone wrong when they have prepared for the worst.
This is why Dr Pittard hopes that the idea the virus is weakening, or health services are getting stronger, does not take hold. “I wouldn’t want the public to be lulled into a false sense of security.”
I was going to say who? But then I searched. I wasn't thinking of Tassie, although there are a few islands in Bass Strait.
French Island maybe in Vic, although a bit far from the airport and you would need to talk to those who live there. Definitely not Phillip Island, no island with a bridge. We could possibly look at Pt Nepean as it used to be a quarantine station. Possibly a former hospital, lot's of rooms.
What we need is proper quarantine: 3 locations, everyone in for 21 days, including the staff (who get 2 weeks off after the 21 days, paid) - one quarantine station for each week of arrivals.
You do this properly or the virus will just come back again.
DS
Oh well that's all good then.
CMO says 'mistakes happen' as hotel security guard tests positive for COVID-19
Federal health authorities concede "mistakes happen" when it comes to security guards dealing with coronavirus hotel quarantine arrangements and the wearing of personal protective equipment.www.abc.net.au
Carry on chaps.
Yep, slight rise today, possibly more significant in perception than reality as we see a 2 at the front of the number. Still at much better levels than a week ago, the trend is down with some flattening out.
The restrictions are having an effect, we just need to keep going.
DS
The restrictions are having an effect, we just need to keep going.
DS
At least they've got organised with the data presentation. Figures released at a consistent time early in the day.
A security guard who contracted coronavirus at a Sydney quarantine hotel has been fined twice by NSW Police for failing to isolate after his test.
www.abc.net.au
What an idiot.
Sydney hotel security guard with COVID-19 fined twice for quarantine breaches
A security guard who contracted coronavirus at a Sydney quarantine hotel has been fined twice by NSW Police for failing to isolate after his test, as three new infections were confirmed in the state.
What an idiot.
Archbishop’s astonishing vaccine claim
Australia’s most powerful Catholic Archbishop Anthony Fisher has sparked outrage after suggesting the COVID-19 vaccine could create an “ethical dilemma” for Catholics who may refuse to take it because it uses a cell line from an aborted foetus in the 1970s.
www.news.com.au
Until now I've treated claims that CV is being used to curtail our freedoms as nonsense. But Andrews' pledge to extend the state of emergency until September 2021 rings alarm bells. He already has six months up his sleeve by law.
