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Coronavirus

Should start to see that 7 day moving average trend down. We are dropping off over 400 cases and only adding on 295 which is good news. Interesting to see if Sutton comments on the R number today, hopefully down below 1.
I read yesterday that Sutton said the R number is reviewed twice a week and that he expected the next review would show that it was around 1 or even a little under 1. I'm not sure when the next review is but it'd would have to be in the next couple of days.
 

What is wrong with people? Refusing to isolate, lying on border declarations? Meanwhile ScoMo reckons WA should open it's borders.
 
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What is wrong with people? Refusing to isolate, lying on border declarations? Meanwhile ScoMo reckons WA should open it's borders.
Extremely poor behaviour from these two women. They have deliberately misled authorities and could now be responsible for a potential COVID-19 outbreak in Queensland where there has been no community transmission. Quite disgraceful actually. I read that a potential penalty is 6 months jail term; wouldn't have an issue with that at all and they only have themselves to blame if that happens.

Their selfish actions could lead to the death of people.
 
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What is wrong with people? Refusing to isolate, lying on border declarations? Meanwhile ScoMo reckons WA should open it's borders.

Should be harsh penalties on people like this. Home detention for 3 months would be something that I would look at.
 
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Should be harsh penalties on people like this. Home detention for 3 months would be something that I would look at.

That's fair. Have them fitted with a tracking bracelet on the understanding that if they breach, they'll do the rest of the sentence in jail.
 
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VIC
New Cases: 255 (295 with 40 reclassified)
Total Cases: 9304
Active Cases: 4849 (up 74 from yesterday).
9 deaths (92 Total).
18,077 tests (1,554,705 Total)

NSW
New Cases: 19
Total Cases: 3718
Active Cases: 188 (up 16 from yesterday).
0 deaths (51 Total). Note: NSW Government website says 51 deaths, other sites say 49.
18,543 tests (1,409,687 Total)
 
VIC
New Cases: 255 (295 with 40 reclassified)
Total Cases: 9304
Active Cases: 4849 (up 74 from yesterday).
9 deaths (92 Total).
18,077 tests (1,554,705 Total)

NSW
New Cases: 19
Total Cases: 3718
Active Cases: 188 (up 16 from yesterday).
0 deaths (51 Total). Note: NSW Government website says 51 deaths, other sites say 49.
18,543 tests (1,409,687 Total)
Our test numbers have been quite low this week in comparison with the previous couple of weeks; I wonder why?
 
Smallest increase in active cases for 21 days is really good news. Its still up but the curve will certainly be flattening.
 
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I'm not convinced they fine anyone who really should be fined. Those Bunnings' Karens seem to get away with it.
 
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I reckon Andrews generally speaks very well, and present very well at his press conferences, but he did labour the point a little too much yesterday that residential Aged Care facilities are federally run.
a good point though was that i think 6 people in state run facilities are active cases, out of about 700 in aged care, but the state run about 10% of the facilities.
It would be interesting to know where the state run facilities are though- if they are all in regional areas that could explain the difference.
 
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Today's update ( based on 295 cases today not 255):

7 July: 102.29
8 July: 111.00
9 July: 123.57
10 July: 155.29
11 July: 170.71
12 July: 199.14
13 July: 206.29
14 July: 217.57
15 July: 232.43
16 July: 254.14
17 July: 274.14
18 July: 274.29
19 July: 287.14
20 July: 301.14
21 July: 316.00
22 July: 351.14
23 July: 363.43
24 July: 345.14
25 July: 365.14
26 July: 378.86
27 July: 415.57
28 July: 417.00
29 July: 390.00

For those who like a visual representation, which is always good for a quick assessment, I'll keep including this:

COVID19 7 day ave 29072020.jpg


A decent drop in the 7 day average, the question will be whether this can be sustained.

Interesting to see the number of cases in NSW keeps sitting around 15-20. Does seem damned near impossible to get this down to zero or even less than maybe 5 a day in the more populated states. Of course, small numbers can get out of hand very quickly and Queensland seem to be unable to get it sustainably down to zero at the moment. What a bloody awful virus to deal with.

DS
 
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I reckon Andrews generally speaks very well, and present very well at his press conferences, but he did labour the point a little too much yesterday that residential Aged Care facilities are federally run.
a good point though was that i think 6 people in state run facilities are active cases, out of about 700 in aged care, but the state run about 10% of the facilities.
It would be interesting to know where the state run facilities are though- if they are all in regional areas that could explain the difference.

I heard on the radio this morning a discussion about this. The guest was talking about the risk of infection in aged care homes. He pointed out that from an architectural point of view we would expect more cases in state run aged care homes as they were more likely to have shared bathrooms and the like as opposed to en suites. Yet we see the opposite, and this is because the privately run homes have a casual workforce who don't get sick leave, who work shifts at a number of facilities and therefore they spread the virus around.

Given the cost of private facilities (my mum was in one until she passed last year, so I know) they are just being greedy, which I suppose is how they are supposed to act as profit is the only raison d'etre for operating a business.

I think the federal responsibility for aged care is less the issue, although they could regulate the homes better.

DS
 
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I reckon Andrews generally speaks very well, and present very well at his press conferences, but he did labour the point a little too much yesterday that residential Aged Care facilities are federally run.
a good point though was that i think 6 people in state run facilities are active cases, out of about 700 in aged care, but the state run about 10% of the facilities.
It would be interesting to know where the state run facilities are though- if they are all in regional areas that could explain the difference.
I tend to agree on Andrews but he was walking a very dangerous tightrope with his comments on aged care facilities yesterday. It was as close to partisan as I'd heard from him recently. The massive failure of the hotel quarantine program in Victoria is highly likely a major contributor in the crisis we are seeing in the aged care sector. The hotel quarantine failure allowed the virus into the community and subsequently into aged care homes. Dan would do well to consider that.

That is certainly not to say the operation of aged care facilities can be improved. It appears to require massive improvement.
 
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Today's update ( based on 295 cases today not 255):

it should be based on 255. According to the official number, it went up by 255 today (9049 yesterday, 9304 today). When they say "reclassified," it means there were some false positives or duplicate reporting from previous days, so the numbers have been adjusted accordingly.
 
it should be based on 255. According to the official number, it went up by 255 today (9049 yesterday, 9304 today). When they say "reclassified," it means there were some false positives or duplicate reporting from previous days, so the numbers have been adjusted accordingly.

I was wondering about this and having a look back at the numbers on the ABC's data charts my main goal would be consistency.

What I notice is that the ABC are listing 295 today but some of the earlier days figures are different, looks like they get corrected maybe a week later. The DHHS site updates late in the afternoon and doesn't seem to have anywhere to find earlier data than the latest number, which is a right pain.

I will have to look at this, and possibly change the earlier numbers which affects the averages etc. Always the case with stats - garbage in, garbage out. Got to find a good single source of data for consistency, looks like relying on the daily figure as it comes out is not perfect. Will tend to track the trend ok, but lacks accuracy.

DS
 
I was wondering about this and having a look back at the numbers on the ABC's data charts my main goal would be consistency.

What I notice is that the ABC are listing 295 today but some of the earlier days figures are different, looks like they get corrected maybe a week later. The DHHS site updates late in the afternoon and doesn't seem to have anywhere to find earlier data than the latest number, which is a right pain.

I will have to look at this, and possibly change the earlier numbers which affects the averages etc. Always the case with stats - garbage in, garbage out. Got to find a good single source of data for consistency, looks like relying on the daily figure as it comes out is not perfect. Will tend to track the trend ok, but lacks accuracy.

DS

I've been using these numbers.

 
The growth to 500 cases per day looked bad, but if you were seeing true exponential growth since the start of the latest outbreaks it would be around 20,000. Keeping it at the level shows the new localised lockdowns are working. The latest drop is a very good sign, hope it continues.
 
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Should be harsh penalties on people like this. Home detention for 3 months would be something that I would look at.

I think there would be a decent chance they'de abscond over the front gate.

I'd give them a room in the big house for a year.

jails are chockers with naive young people whose mistakes were far less menacing to society.
 
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