Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Coronavirus

You talk about supposition and then you use it yourself

I can tell you as a fact that the stats we get every day are totally accurate and are based on a now well organised data collection process. At the start of this the stats were less reliable as the system get developed but now what we get is what is happening and what is known.
Maybe I phrased it wrong Sin, I'm sure the total numbers are right. Just not sure the explanations given are non-politicised.
 
So much anger in this thread, and supposition.

* Victoria wasn't the only state that used security guards. One other state used them like us, another had a mix of security & ADF. Maybe its not the method used, but the people implementing it
* there's been speculation- just that though, Speculation - that warmer climates fair better with infection. Maybe our colder, winter in Victoria makes us more susceptible than NSW.
* Anyone who doesn't believe the federal government twisted Andrews arm to open up earlier than we wanted is naive. A very large chunk of state revenue comes from Fed government grants. Dan is the infrastructure Premier. But to keep going, he needs cash. Open up, start earning us some GST, income tax, etc. Stop causing people to be unemployed, or I'll cut off the feeding tube. Every political party behaves like this to some extent.
* The community transmission isn't just about large family gathering. There's enough transmission now that it's not all down to the family birthday party or religious event. Hence lockdown
* Protest marches AT THAT TIME were selfish and wrong. It's not just the risk of contagion, but the message it sends about safety to mingle and lack of adherenceto social distancing. A family member has basically cut comms with me because of how strongly I feel about it. I don't trust the stats post the protest. Something smells fishy.
* other countries that got ahead of the virus and opened up for economic reasons are going backwards. Other states may see this happen too.
In NZ, I've been told they're struggling with social distancing too. Prepare for an increase there if it gets out of control.
* right now, it doesn't matter who's to blame. Let's just beat this *smile* thing and worry about politics when it's over.

Salient points General that I'll take on board.

It has always been a battle between the economic pain and the health cost, with no winners. I feel for the young the most, they've had their education interrupted, their work interrupted, their sport and social lives interrupted for a virus that does not really affect them physically. And the short-term future for them is pretty bleak. I just hope the government commits a stack of resources in their direction as far as mental health support, stimulus for jobs for youth and other programs specifically aimed at benefitting them. And I hope they place most of the cost burden fair and square on those that can afford it. I am more than willing to bare my share of this increased cost be it in the form of extra tax etc.
 
Maybe I phrased it wrong Sin, I'm sure the total numbers are right. Just not sure the explanations given are non-politicised.
Ok that's fine but the point is that even if there is political spin the numbers are actually available and any journalist worth their salt would be able to debunk that spin if it were happening.
I stated at the time that I didn't think that the marches should have gone ahead but the facts are that despite what risks they may have created, very few positive tests can be traced back to them in Victoria.
 
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As I mentioned above Sin, it's not just the numbers that appear, it's the message it sends about whether social distancing is still required.
I don't find it coincidental at all, that we've got huge community transmission after the general public saw huge numbers march and then reports of "few infections".
To many, that said, well if there's no impact after the march, we're passed this. Not to mention those who said, if they're allowed to march, I can do what I want too.
Just selfish and damaging behaviour all round and to reiterate, that doesn't mean the cause isn't worthwhile just that for the greater good the timing wasn't appropriate.
 
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It seems that when Victoria was doing well, it was Dan the Man; now that we are doing poorly it is just a lot of bad luck.
 
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Just hope that 6 weeks is enough and that people do the right thing. From afar it was looking that people were getting too confident that they had the virus beaten. Between organising protests to bitching incessantly to be able to go golfing to the constant calls to open everything up "for the sake of the economy", the whole community took its eye off the ball in the belief that Victoria had it under control.

Let's hope the rest of Australia learns from what happened in Vic and they slow down the opening as well. The whole country needs to eradicate this thing, it's not possible to sustain it state by state.
 
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There was an excellent, passionate call on SEN just now..
Basically questioned the resumption of the football codes before the eradication of the virus. Now I love watching footy as much as anybody here but it really hit a nerve with me.
Not so much about whether it was safe for the players to play but more so the false sense of security that watching footy provides to the public in the midst of a pandemic. How it creates a sense of normality when footballers are crashing into each other in a contact sport. It makes things seem not that bad & puts our minds at rest.
I thought it made a lot of sense because I know personally that when I've watched games that I've been guilty of relaxing my own social distancing measures when socialising with others. You try not to but it's not hard to drop the ball.
So I guess if you're critical of those that march for BLM or security guards or politicians, ask yourself whether there are times when you haven't been social distancing rigorously yourself. Because ultimately we are all in this together & it only takes one spark to start a wildfire with this virus.
So yeah enjoy the footy at all means but don't think it's resumption hasn't somewhat contributed to the issues we are now facing. We all have to do the right thing until we get on top of this thing.
 
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Let's hope the rest of Australia learns from what happened in Vic and they slow down the opening as well. The whole country needs to eradicate this thing, it's not possible to sustain it state by state.

Think it's more the other way around, Victoria has to learn from NSW in particular as to the level of community transmission v testing that is required - and maintained - before opening up again. But yeah, the other states must remain vigilant also.
 
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It seems that when Victoria was doing well, it was Dan the Man; now that we are doing poorly it is just a lot of bad luck.
Really, I noticed the complete opposite in the narrative, particularly in media and social media.
It was all luck, returned travellers, island nation, few cases to worry about, Dan being difficult and causing business to go broke by not releasing us from lockdown, Dan hates us and won't let us hug our mum on mothers day, Dan making it hard for kids to get an education because of home schooling failures.
None of it was about Dan Andrews being very good at his job. It was about how he was running a police state and being draconian in his approach to things.

Now it's all about Dan Andrews has stuffed up because the virus has risen in numbers again.

I find it rather amusing that he was both bad at restricting and managing the state it in the first place, and now bad because the numbers have risen again.
Hence the reason why I wish the political analysis of the crisis (and it's every bit a crisis) would be dropped and we'd focus on what the community needs to do
to control it.

I posted this elsewhere. Check the date, well before any (public) signs of issues from hotels and security guards.
facebook snip.JPG
 
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Not so much about whether it was safe for the players to play but more so the false sense of security that watching footy provides to the public in the midst of a pandemic. How it creates a sense of normality when footballers are crashing into each other in a contact sport. It makes things seem not that bad & puts our minds at rest.

It's an interesting discussion point and seemed to be the overarching reason for the March shutdown, rather than any specific issue that prevented footy from continuing.

"The decision by various State Governments to close their borders and travel bans and other measures meant it was time for the AFL to immediately stop the AFL and AFLW competitions.
...
Our industry provides livelihoods for thousands and thousands of people. But our key focus at the moment – like every organisation in the country – is to do everything that needs to be done to help slow the spread of this virus and to keep people as healthy as possible... as a community and as a code, we all need to take the unprecedented and required actions to get through this together.

I know that everyone involved in our game and our millions of supporters will be impacted by this decision and that many people will suffer significant hardship, as are people right across the community. But I also know that we all have a responsibility to the community and each other and we have the will to work collectively to overcome this crisis.

...
It was the right decision to start the season and today clearly it is now the right decision to stop. That is why we have acted immediately to take this step to play our role in the community and to protect the long-term future of our game."

- Gil, March 22

I guess it's really only Victoria in big trouble at the moment.
 
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As I mentioned above Sin, it's not just the numbers that appear, it's the message it sends about whether social distancing is still required.
I don't find it coincidental at all, that we've got huge community transmission after the general public saw huge numbers march and then reports of "few infections".
To many, that said, well if there's no impact after the march, we're passed this. Not to mention those who said, if they're allowed to march, I can do what I want too.
Just selfish and damaging behaviour all round and to reiterate, that doesn't mean the cause isn't worthwhile just that for the greater good the timing wasn't appropriate.
Sure but there were and are a lot of behaviours that fall into that category.
I have turned around and gone home before entering a Bunnings store twice because there were so many people there, I went to Chapel Street one day and there were hundreds of people there.
It's one of those chicken and egg discussions because some people will say social distancing was approached in a more relaxed way because the BLM marches happened and others will say that people felt ok about the BLM marches because it was no more crowded than going to Bunnings.
Probably the truth is that all of these things are true to some extent and we just relaxed too much as a population for a multiplicity of reasons. \
 
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You know how it started. We all know. We had no issues until an incompetent health department let it slip. You cannot support anything you write with data or facts. They failed at cedar meats that allowed more than 100 plus infections and then fail to monitor the biggest source of the virus. Fix those and we are in the same position as other states.

the lockdown is now necessary to get us back to where we were before the govt *smile* up. youll still be paid so who cares hey?

Cedar meats, like other outbreaks were a big issue at the time. The cases from those outbreaks remained an issue due to being present in the community and not tracked. We never had the infrastructure or procedures to identify and contain those outbreaks. The only measure we had to contain those outbreaks was the restrictions we had in place. I don't know how else you think we were supposed to stop the spread of those cases once they were moving silently in the community? The government, state or federal, is not omnipotent.

In fact, I think that's exactly why I posted at the time when you were both ranting about cedar meats while still agitating to open up.

People really don't get it. We do not currently have the infrastructure to track and trace outbreaks.

Our testing and quarantine measures are currently not there. This is why Dan Andrews wants to keep severe restrictions in place.

People have been getting more and more lax about social distancing, self isolation and staying home, because of this false sense of security that it's all getting better.

Again, this is why Dan wants to keep restrictions in place. We cannot stop these outbreaks. It's an incredibly infectious, mostly silent disease that has spread through pretty much every population on the planet. We are still not there with testing. We're getting better but not there. It was a fluke we even caught the first case at the meat packing plant when we did.

The same people here who are saying we should be playing golf and opening schools are the ones saying Dan should have dealt with this better?

WTF? While we ramp up testing and tracking we currently only have one measure we can use. Stay the *smile* home.

You then had a go at me asking when we should open up. I posted a metric (identified all cases of community transmission).

You're making it out like there are no measures of when to open up.

There are. And we haven't reached them yet.

What we need is not necessarily to have zero new cases for a week (though that'd be great), but to have widespread testing and only find positives of known positive contacts.

This means there isn't undetected community transmission (depending on how widespread the testing is).

Here's the thing. We still have people popping up every day in Victoria and testing positive with no known positive contacts. It is still moving silently in our community. We still have no inherent immunity. We still have no effective antivirals. We still have no vaccine.

If we start opening up now, there is no reason why this wouldn't ramp up again. None.

If we can get our tracing, monitoring and testing levels to the point where we can actually effectively quarantine and isolate, then we can talk about opening up.

There's this odd sense of 'come on, surely we've been locked down long enough. It has to be better by now.'

It's like we think the virus will get bored and go away.

Nothing has changed. Not until we know where every case in the state came from. And there are two ways to do that. Proper testing and tracing, or getting our cases down to zero.

The frustrating thing is we are not far off.

But this is the exact opposite of near enough is good enough. Near enough is not enough.

And that was the reality. Nothing had changed. There was still reservoirs of asymptomatic carriers in our population, and once we opened up, they interacted with larger numbers of people causing outbreaks. We also had an influx of carriers from breaches in hotel quarantine, which was again exacerbated by the fact that people were now having large family gatherings and spreading it all over the place. You suggested we could trust people to wash their hands enough that the virus would be a non issue. That was not the case.
 
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You also keep saying there's no data or facts to suggest this is true. Well here's a bit.


"Al-Taqwa college
Area: Truganina – Melton and Wyndham LGAs

Cluster declared: 29 June

Current size: 90

What we know: This cluster has grown to be the second biggest in Victoria, with what appears to be significant student-to-student transmission.

The chief health officer has suggested that senior students with a transmission rate closer to that of adults had spread the virus around the school. He suggested that older students may not have been practising proper social distancing.
On 3 July the health department ordered that all staff and students isolate for two weeks and get tested. After this testing blitz, case numbers at the school jumped significantly.

The outbreak is believed to have links to family clusters in Truganina and Sunshine West."

The line that annoys me the most is that older students had not been practicing proper social distancing. We have been instructed by the department that students don't need to social distance. They're piled on top of each other in my classrooms.

"Keilor Downs family two/Coles Chilled Distribution Centre
Area: Keilor Downs, Albanvale, Laverton – Brimbank, Wyndham LGAs

Cluster declared: 19 June

Current size: 22 (total), 17 (family), six (Coles)

What we know: This is the largest family cluster and it is still active. It has spread across at least eight households in Melbourne but the health department says there is no known connection between this cluster and the previous family outbreak in the same suburb.

This cluster includes a teacher at Albanvale primary school, and students at Keilor View primary school and Keilor Downs college, with both locations closed temporarily for cleaning.

This was the second time Keilor Downs college was closed due to the virus; after a classmate of the infected student tested positive all students at the school were asked to get tested at the Melbourne showgrounds, whether or not they were symptomatic.



Six cases have now also been associated with the Coles Chilled Distribution Centre in Laverton, which is linked to this family cluster. Several of these workers worked while infectious and further contact tracing and testing is under way."

Another cluster being perpetuated by family gatherings.

"Truganina family
Area: Truganina – Melton and Wyndham LGAs

Cluster declared: 29 June

Current size: at least 16

What we know: Little is know about this cluster, besides it being a family-based outbreak in Truganina. It’s understood that some cases in this cluster are linked to the Al-Taqwa college outbreak in the same suburb.


On 7 July the health department said cases had been added to the cluster but it did not specify how many."

Then there's the two big ones from failures in hotel quarantine:

Stamford Plaza/Monash Health/Hallam family
Area: Melbourne, Hallam

Cluster declared: 15 June (Monash Health/Hallam), 17 June (Stamford Plaza)

Current size: eight (Monash Health/Hallam), 42 (Stamford Plaza)

What we know: When combined, these two interconnected clusters account for one of the largest outbreaks in the state, with 27 cases, but officially they are considered separate by the health department.

The Monash Health outbreak, later known as the Hallam family outbreak, was announced when a patient at Monash Health was linked to two more cases, a household contact and a healthcare worker.

By 17 June it was considered to be primarily family-based rather than connected to the clinic.

The same day a worker tested positive at the Stamford Plaza Hotel, which was being used for returned traveller quarantine. This cluster quickly grew and on 19 June it was suggested that one infected security contractor was actually a household contact of the Hallam family.

Victoria’s chief health officer, Brett Sutton, has since confirmed that it was this worker, who was infected at the hotel, who brought the virus to their family and started Hallam outbreak.


It has been suggested by the premier that a large number of Melbourne’s cases can be linked back to hotel quarantine breaches by genomic testing, but the total is unknown."

Now it may turn out that some of these family clusters have direct links to hotel quarantine failures too. But the simple fact is, they have spread like wildfire due to our state being completely open again, and the prevailing feeling that the pandemic was over as we opened everything up.

It's also unlikely that these outbreaks are due to hotel quarantine failure, though there were still issues before we opened up and eased restrictions. Issues that were never fully resolved.

"Cedar Meats
Area: Brooklyn – Brimbank and Wyndham LGAs

Cluster declared: 2 May

Current size: 111

McDonald’s Fawkner
Area:
Fawkner – Moreland LGA

Cluster declared: 9 May

Current size: 13"


Secondly, and here's the big point, had we kept restrictions in place until we had a situation like New Zealand's, we would have been shut down for less time. That's the point. Nobody wants to have longer restrictions. Myself included. Wage aside, it sucks. My mental health has been significantly worse because of it, and will continue to be now. You were worried about jobs and suicides and mental health? So was I. That was the point of doing a proper, more severe, more complete lockdown in the first place. Because now we have this situation. Who knows what the end point will look like now?
 
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The World Health Organization (WHO) is acknowledging there is "evidence emerging" of coronavirus spreading through the air.

The WHO has previously said the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads primarily through small droplets expelled from the nose and mouth of an infected person, that quickly sinks to the ground.

But in an open letter published this week, 239 scientists in 32 countries outlined evidence that they say shows floating virus particles can infect people who breathe them in.

Because those smaller exhaled particles can linger in the air, the scientists in the group have been urging the WHO to update its guidance.

"We have been talking about the possibility of airborne transmission and aerosol transmission as one of the modes of transmission of COVID-19," Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's technical lead on COVID-19, said.

The change in guidance was also mentioned by Benedetta Allegranzi, the WHO's technical lead for infection prevention and control.

She said there was evidence emerging of airborne transmission of the coronavirus, but that it was not definitive.

"The possibility of airborne transmission in public settings — especially in very specific conditions, crowded, closed, poorly ventilated settings that have been described, cannot be ruled out," she said.

"However, the evidence needs to be gathered and interpreted, and we continue to support this."

There is growing evidence that small droplet (airborne) transmission is a significant route of infection indoors.(Supplied: Airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 By Lidia Morawska)
The new acknowledgement will force a change in the advice the WHO gives about how to stop the pandemic.

Dr Van Kerkhove said the WHO would publish a scientific brief summarising modes of transmission of the virus in the coming days.

"A comprehensive package of interventions is required to be able to stop transmission," she said.

"This includes not only physical distancing, it includes the use of masks where appropriate in certain settings, specifically where you can't do physical distancing and especially for healthcare workers."

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

Professor Lidia Morawska says viruses can last in the air for tens of minutes and potentially hours.
Jose Jimenez, a chemist at the University of Colorado, was one of the 239 who signed the open letter that prompted the WHO's change of heart.

He said many health professionals can be worried about acknowledging airborne transmission, for fear of creating a panic.

"If people hear 'airborne', healthcare workers will refuse to go to the hospital," he said.

He also said this fear could lead to people buying up highly protective respirator masks, "and there will be none left for developing countries".

Despite this, he said it was important for WHO to look at the evidence out there that could indicate coronavirus can be spread through the air.

"This is definitely not an attack on the WHO. It's a scientific debate, but we felt we needed to go public because they were refusing to hear the evidence after many conversations with them," he said.

 
Secondly, and here's the big point, had we kept restrictions in place until we had a situation like New Zealand's, we would have been shut down for less time. That's the point. Nobody wants to have longer restrictions. Myself included. Wage aside, it sucks. My mental health has been significantly worse because of it, and will continue to be now. You were worried about jobs and suicides and mental health? So was I. That was the point of doing a proper, more severe, more complete lockdown in the first place. Because now we have this situation. Who knows what the end point will look like now?

Looks like we are in furious agreeance.

Hopefully the lockdown can get us back to a better starting point.

Hopefully we all come through it OK.
 
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