Victoria could be on 'tipping point' of second wave, epidemiologists warn (paywalled)
Rachel Eddie
The Age
June 19, 2020
Victorian health officials need to make a difficult decision this weekend: allow coronavirus restrictions to ease further, or dramatically halt plans to reopen more businesses.
Epidemiologists warn Victoria could be on the "tipping point" of a second wave of infections and that plans to relax more restrictions on Monday may need to be delayed if community transmission of COVID-19 continues to rise in the state.
Victoria has recorded 39 cases in the last two days, including eight people who were infected through untraceable community transmission. There are now 81 active COVID-19 cases in the state.
The state's top health advisers appear to be at odds with the government, with Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen saying the next stage in relaxing restrictions could be in jeopardy.
But Health Minister Jenny Mikakos has insisted the increasing numbers will only affect the further easing of restrictions, not those already planned for June 22.
Premier Daniel Andrews also said he was confident that restrictions due to be eased next week could "slowly, cautiously, safely" proceed.
Gyms, cinemas, indoor sports centres and concert venues are due to reopen on Monday, while cafes, restaurants and pubs will increase capacity from 20 people to 50.
Professor James McCaw, from the University of Melbourne, said it was fair to ask whether Victoria should be loosening the rules on June 22.
"Whether or not we should relax measures further now, it's a very reasonable question to ask," Professor McCaw said on Friday morning.
"The situation in Victoria is hard to understand right now. We don't know if this is the earliest phase of more widespread transmission, or if this is just a statistical fluctuation – a blip."
Cases reported from the last few days would have been transmitted one to two weeks ago, he said.
"So we don't know what's happening right now, and that could be more cases, or it could be fewer, and we don't know and we won't know for another week or two," Professor McCaw said.
If cases continue to rise on the weekend and those cases are not connected to a single cluster, then "that would feel to me strongly suggestive of increasing community-level transmission", he said.
"Because prevalence is so low in Victoria, we would have time to respond, but it would warrant a response. If left unchecked, it could result in heading towards a situation which would be risky.
"But we'll have to wait to see, because a few days is a long time."
He said the suppression strategy was always going to result in some influx in cases, which is why the "slow, cautious approach" is needed.
Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said community transmission cases caught by routine testing showed "the virus is still circulating".
"I think it's potentially a tipping point if you like, the fact that we're finding more cases through routine testing," Professor Bennett said.
"It's a ticking time bomb, if you like, while we've still got the virus circulating."
But Professor Bennett said case numbers were still low compared to the rest of the world, and Victoria had been aggressively testing the community.
"The numbers are still low, but we are right to worry."
Victoria also recorded 21 new cases on Wednesday, although 15 were returned travellers in hotel quarantine, nine new cases on Tuesday and 12 on Monday.
Dr van Diemen said authorities would not be taking any chances.
"Monday is not that far away. The plan is to continue to ease those restrictions on Monday, but a lot can happen in five days," she said on Thursday.
