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Coronavirus

In the US about 20% of their tests are positive and their test numbers as a percentage of the population are lower than ours. Australia’s positive test rate is 1.6%.
There could be a few reasons for this. For example It could be that many people aren’t getting tested until they show symptoms or that testing is nowhere near comprehensive enough. None of the reasons are good news and probably mean that there are lots of people still in the community who have the virus.
There are going to be a lot more people die in the US before this is over
 
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It is difficult to compare countries with different testing rates and the like, but this is what I get:

The USA has 735,000 cases and 39,000 deaths with about 350 million people.

Australia has 6,600 cases and 67 deaths with 25 million people.

So:
Proportion infected: Australia: 0.0264% of the population; USA: 0.21% of the population.
Fatalities as percentage of infected: Australia: 1.015%; USA: 5.3%

We have a higher rate of testing than the USA: Australia 16 per 1000 people, USA just under 11 per 1000 people.

I have seen that figure of 20% of tests in the USA coming back positive, they clearly need to do more testing as that indicates either not enough testing or a truly scary rate of infection.

It was on tonight's news where Trump said best in the world, usual Trump comment, everything is always the best, unprecedented fabulousness and the like.

Not sure about the testing and infection rates in hard hit European countries, would be an interesting comparison though.

DS
 
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The age group that play golf is the elderly. Protecting them from themselves.

Can’t say under 55‘s can play wouldn’t work. Can’t police it. Right call.

Fine the bike riders.

obviously you don’t play golf. ridiculous explanation.
 
Just watching the news, Trump was claiming that the health response in the USA was the best in the world. Really? More like the worst. Higher rates of infection, higher death rates, higher positive tests as a percentage of all tests . . . the list of failures goes on.
Just on some of the posts above. I used to play golf (tendonitis prevents it these days, RSI sucks!), yes you can socially distance while playing but the age profile of golfers and the congregating near the shop (you need to get a drink or the like) is problematic. I see it as similar to the beach, yes we could have safe distancing at the beach, the problem is that you let some people on the beach or golf course then you will end up with too many. It is a pity but controlling numbers and distancing is very problematic

DS

2 per group.
members only
no clubhouse open

handled easily in other states with no issues.

as I said no logical argument
 
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Has anyone ever asked him that in one of his pressers?

Dunno. Just noticed it today when looking at some charts. Unless there's some ulterior motive, they should be encouraging everyone with symptoms to get tested.

I'm convinced he has a very good handle on the risk of the gains being blown, though. He knows we can't afford to make these current sacrifices for nothing.
 
Has anyone ever asked him that in one of his pressers?

i heard him on the radio this morning claim 7,000 people were tested on the weekend, which was a significant increase. i don’t know if this claim is true, but that’s what he said.
 
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i heard him on the radio this morning claim 7,000 people were tested on the weekend, which was a significant increase. i don’t know if this claim is true, but that’s what he said.
this site uses data from the Dept of Health. Victoria seems to round their numbers to the nearest thousand:

1587338843862.png

More good news is that the % of positive tests is dropping, which is the case across all states
1587338866418.png


 
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No new cases recorded in Qld overnight either.

Today is the first time I've heard of our leaders say that there may soon be possible easing of restrictions today.

We may be still inside the tunnel atm but there's definitely light at the end of it.
 
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It is difficult to compare countries with different testing rates and the like, but this is what I get:

The USA has 735,000 cases and 39,000 deaths with about 350 million people.

Australia has 6,600 cases and 67 deaths with 25 million people.

So:
Proportion infected: Australia: 0.0264% of the population; USA: 0.21% of the population.
Fatalities as percentage of infected: Australia: 1.015%; USA: 5.3%

We have a higher rate of testing than the USA: Australia 16 per 1000 people, USA just under 11 per 1000 people.

I have seen that figure of 20% of tests in the USA coming back positive, they clearly need to do more testing as that indicates either not enough testing or a truly scary rate of infection.

It was on tonight's news where Trump said best in the world, usual Trump comment, everything is always the best, unprecedented fabulousness and the like.

Not sure about the testing and infection rates in hard hit European countries, would be an interesting comparison though.

DS

Trump is the king of spin. Talks about most tests, well he's correct there, partly because they have one of the biggest populations.

On a per capita or per million people they are well down the list. Their cases per million people is 18th in the world. Hardly something to crow about and this is also impacted by cases in very small nations reporting a high rate / million (ie. Vatican City, Andorra etc). If you factor it to decent sized countries, then they have the 7th highest cases per million people in the world. They also have one of the highest positive test rates in the world. Belgium I think is the worst at 25% (UK is pretty close) but the US is not far behind at 19.9%. I suspect all those with high test rates have much wider outbreaks than they can show at the moment. For example, Italys I believe was a lot higher but is now down to 13.5% as testing has increased. Germany is at 8.3%.

Pulled this from the website I use to provide a picture of hardest hit European nations and added in the US and Australia for good measure. Interesting that here we have almost done the same number of tests as the UK and France.

SpainUSABelgiumItalyUKGermanyFranceSwitzerlandAustralia
Tests 930,230 3,722,209 153,778 1,305,833 460,437 1,728,357 463,662 216,400 420,996
Positive 195,944 738,923 38,496 175,925 114,217 143,724 151,793 27,404 6,606
21.1%
19.9%
25.0%
13.5%
24.8%
8.3%
32.7%
12.7%
1.6%
Tests / million 19,896 11,245 13,269 21,598 6,783 20,629 7,103 25,004 16,510
 
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Man suffers repeated COVID-19 infection, baffling doctors
Adriana Zappavigna
news.com.au
April 19, 2020

Prime Minister Scott Morrison keeps reminding Australians that a large proportion of those who tested positive for COVID-19 have recovered.

But what about reinfection?

A recent case – reported in a Chinese pre-peer-reviewed study on Wednesday – draws on the experience of a 68-year-old man who was reinfected twice after recovering from the virus.

The man (who was also suffering from heart problems) tested positive only to be retested after a few days’ recuperation. His result was negative.

The man returned home only to be retested a little over a week a later. This time, the result was positive. Seven days later, he tested negative again. Then, four days after that, he tested positive again.

The man’s yoyo diagnosis has experts concerned that even with a vaccine, the danger of reinfection could still be dangerously high.

The experience of the man in this case study may not be an isolated occurrence.

In February, reports emerged of a woman in Japan that appeared to have caught the virus again after initially recovering.

There have also been similar reports of possible reinfection emerging from China.

Australia’s very own entertainment reporter Richard Wilkins was among those with fluctuating test results.

Wilkins took to Instagram to give his followers an update on his condition, warning everyone that while he tested positive multiple times, he still hadn’t shown any symptoms.

“I’ve now returned a positive result THREE times,” he wrote alongside a photo of him being tested in his home.

Despite multiple reports of reinfection, some experts remain sceptical.

Professor Jimmy Whitworth from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests these reports were likely due to the way the tests were conducted.

“There have been a few isolated examples where [reinfection] has been reported. That people were positive, then they were negative, then they were positive again,” he said during a recent live Q&A session.

“It looks like, in the great majority of cases, this doesn’t happen. That people get infected once.

“My suspicion is that those discrepant test results that we get are to do with, actually, the sampling. It’s not straightforward to take a sample from the back of the throat and make sure you catch virus every time.”

He said at the moment the predominant thinking is that most people become immune to the virus after getting it but it isn’t clear how long that immunity lasts.

The potential of tests returning false positives must also be considered.

“Reinfection can’t be ruled out, but it’s possible the test is picking up lingering viral material in the cells, even after the virus has been killed,” said Professor Jamie Triccas, head of infectious diseases and immunology at the University of Sydney.

These sentiments were echoed by Senior medical virologist with NSW Health Pathology, Professor William Rawlinson, who said it was too soon to say if reinfection was a feature of the virus.

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” the NYU School of Medicine Professor Philip Tierno, told Reuters.
 
I'm convinced he has a very good handle on the risk of the gains being blown, though. He knows we can't afford to make these current sacrifices for nothing.

A good handle? Let's face it, the only thing he thinks about is TV ratings and whether he looks good or not relative to Obama or whatever other wacky comparison he wants to make. He has a bunch of CEOs in his ear about reopening the economy but seems to have no idea about how to synthesise that information with current COVID19 data.

He can't focus on anything for more than 5 minutes at a time. Calling for revolution in democratic states was last week, wonder what counter-productive nonsense he'll pull out of his arse this week.

Meanwhile 40,000 dead in the US - and that's only the official data. And it's only April.
 
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The Australian numbers are looking very good. But it would be naive to think it will all be over soon. Pandemics come in waves and with the sth hemisphere heading to winter it can still be very dangerous.
 
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Trump is the king of spin. Talks about most tests, well he's correct there, partly because they have one of the biggest populations.

On a per capita or per million people they are well down the list. Their cases per million people is 18th in the world. Hardly something to crow about and this is also impacted by cases in very small nations reporting a high rate / million (ie. Vatican City, Andorra etc). If you factor it to decent sized countries, then they have the 7th highest cases per million people in the world. They also have one of the highest positive test rates in the world. Belgium I think is the worst at 25% (UK is pretty close) but the US is not far behind at 19.9%. I suspect all those with high test rates have much wider outbreaks than they can show at the moment. For example, Italys I believe was a lot higher but is now down to 13.5% as testing has increased. Germany is at 8.3%.

Pulled this from the website I use to provide a picture of hardest hit European nations and added in the US and Australia for good measure. Interesting that here we have almost done the same number of tests as the UK and France.

SpainUSABelgiumItalyUKGermanyFranceSwitzerlandAustralia
Tests 930,230 3,722,209 153,778 1,305,833 460,437 1,728,357 463,662 216,400 420,996
Positive 195,944 738,923 38,496 175,925 114,217 143,724 151,793 27,404 6,606
21.1%
19.9%
25.0%
13.5%
24.8%
8.3%
32.7%
12.7%
1.6%
Tests / million 19,896 11,245 13,269 21,598 6,783 20,629 7,103 25,004 16,510

Thanks for finding that, I was thinking of crunching the numbers myself but hoped someone would find a site that had already done so.

Geez, the UK and France are terrible on testing. They need to get their act together as testing is crucial to working out exactly what is happening.

The high infection rates would be indicative of not enough testing and of high rates of infection. The only way to get a clear picture is more testing.

There is no way, with the figures above, that the USA should be relaxing their efforts to stop the spread of this virus. Quite the opposite. What Trump was tweeting the other day is grossly irresponsible and incompetent.

L2R2R, interesting article. Shows how we're still trying to work all of this out. I think the possibility of false positive test results is quite high, I remember we had that with AIDS, especially early on. The other possibilities would include reinfection possible with different strains of the virus and also that some proportion of people don't gain immunity while others do. We just need to keep testing but also try and develop better and quicker tests.

One other worry is that, if reinfection is possible, I would think that would affect any vaccine, if one can be developed.

DS
 
A good handle? Let's face it, the only thing he thinks about is TV ratings and whether he looks good or not relative to Obama or whatever other wacky comparison he wants to make. He has a bunch of CEOs in his ear about reopening the economy but seems to have no idea about how to synthesise that information with current COVID19 data.

He can't focus on anything for more than 5 minutes at a time. Calling for revolution in democratic states was last week, wonder what counter-productive nonsense he'll pull out of his arse this week.

Meanwhile 40,000 dead in the US - and that's only the official data. And it's only April.
LTRTR was talking about Scomo methinks not Trump