I hope that the continual slashing of funding resulting in job losses doesn't hamstring the CSRIO in any way.
-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
WHO: Now is the time to prepare. We're in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic.
WHO Feb. 24 press conference on COVID-19 [video] - World Health Organization (WHO), February 24, 2020
"Pan Demos is a concept where there’s a belief that the whole world’s population would likely be exposed to this infection and potentially a proportion of them falls sick, and as we’ve seen it in influenza. It occurs in different waves.
So pandemics of influenza can be sometimes called a lot earlier because we’ve had previous pandemics and we know with influenza that when there’s highly efficient community transmission (as we see with seasonal flu) that the disease does spread around the world. And it’s been proven time and time again. So it’s much easier to say that a pandemic will occur in an influenza situation.
What we don’t understand, yet in Covid-19 are the absolute transmission dynamics. Look what’s happened in China, we’ve seen a significant drop in cases, huge pressure placed on the virus and a sequential decrease in the number of cases. That goes against the logic of pandemic.
Yet, we seen in contrast to that an acceleration of cases in places like Korea. And, therefore, we’re still in balance.
Now it’s the time to prepare. We’re in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic.
That doesn’t stop anyone doing what they need to do. We’ve had enough countries now import disease. It’s is time to prepare.
It is time to do everything you would do in preparing for a pandemic. But in declaring something a pandemic it’s too early.
We’re still trying to avoid that reality, we’re still trying to avoid that eventuality and countries are having success in doing that.
So let’s focus on what we can do, what we need to do which is prepare. When we mean prepare we mean to detect cases, prepare to treat cases, prepare to follow contacts, prepare to put in place adequate containment measures. It’s not a hundred different measures there are probably 5 or 6 key interventions.
All countries are vulnerable because all countries have two things. All countries have vulnerable populations, people within, (no matter how developed their economy is) there are many, many older people with underlying conditions who may be negatively impacted if this virus arrives and spreads.
Secondly, many of our health systems even in the most developed countries, in fact, very often in the most developed countries are operating at nearly 100% efficiency or impact all the time. You don’t see many extra beds in hospitals in Europe so the problem for the European countries and other countries in the developed world is that the health systems may come under a lot of extra pressure. We see that with the seasonal influenza every winter. But slowing down the virus, even now slowing down the virus spreading in Europe in order for the flu season to end will free up significant capacity in the health system. Even Slowing down the virus by a month or six week will have a massive positive benefit to the system.
But all systems have vulnerabilities. But when it comes to movement, there is no zero risk. We cannot shut down the world. Everyone can close their borders and everyone can say there’s no movement but that’s not going to work because disease can spread between nations. What we need to focus on is risk management.
Reducing the risks of disease importation, reducing the risk of disease transmission, increasing the survival of patients who get sick and understand that this virus may come and it may cause outbreaks and epidemics in any number of countries but they can be managed, they can be dealt with. I think we have to be very careful in suggesting that we can absolutely stop this virus from spreading from one country to the next. I don’t think that’s possible."
WHO Feb. 24 press conference on COVID-19 [video] - World Health Organization (WHO), February 24, 2020
"Pan Demos is a concept where there’s a belief that the whole world’s population would likely be exposed to this infection and potentially a proportion of them falls sick, and as we’ve seen it in influenza. It occurs in different waves.
So pandemics of influenza can be sometimes called a lot earlier because we’ve had previous pandemics and we know with influenza that when there’s highly efficient community transmission (as we see with seasonal flu) that the disease does spread around the world. And it’s been proven time and time again. So it’s much easier to say that a pandemic will occur in an influenza situation.
What we don’t understand, yet in Covid-19 are the absolute transmission dynamics. Look what’s happened in China, we’ve seen a significant drop in cases, huge pressure placed on the virus and a sequential decrease in the number of cases. That goes against the logic of pandemic.
Yet, we seen in contrast to that an acceleration of cases in places like Korea. And, therefore, we’re still in balance.
Now it’s the time to prepare. We’re in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic.
That doesn’t stop anyone doing what they need to do. We’ve had enough countries now import disease. It’s is time to prepare.
It is time to do everything you would do in preparing for a pandemic. But in declaring something a pandemic it’s too early.
We’re still trying to avoid that reality, we’re still trying to avoid that eventuality and countries are having success in doing that.
So let’s focus on what we can do, what we need to do which is prepare. When we mean prepare we mean to detect cases, prepare to treat cases, prepare to follow contacts, prepare to put in place adequate containment measures. It’s not a hundred different measures there are probably 5 or 6 key interventions.
All countries are vulnerable because all countries have two things. All countries have vulnerable populations, people within, (no matter how developed their economy is) there are many, many older people with underlying conditions who may be negatively impacted if this virus arrives and spreads.
Secondly, many of our health systems even in the most developed countries, in fact, very often in the most developed countries are operating at nearly 100% efficiency or impact all the time. You don’t see many extra beds in hospitals in Europe so the problem for the European countries and other countries in the developed world is that the health systems may come under a lot of extra pressure. We see that with the seasonal influenza every winter. But slowing down the virus, even now slowing down the virus spreading in Europe in order for the flu season to end will free up significant capacity in the health system. Even Slowing down the virus by a month or six week will have a massive positive benefit to the system.
But all systems have vulnerabilities. But when it comes to movement, there is no zero risk. We cannot shut down the world. Everyone can close their borders and everyone can say there’s no movement but that’s not going to work because disease can spread between nations. What we need to focus on is risk management.
Reducing the risks of disease importation, reducing the risk of disease transmission, increasing the survival of patients who get sick and understand that this virus may come and it may cause outbreaks and epidemics in any number of countries but they can be managed, they can be dealt with. I think we have to be very careful in suggesting that we can absolutely stop this virus from spreading from one country to the next. I don’t think that’s possible."
It's amazing the people who support cutting funding to research and education, now come crying for help when they realise how important it is.
From memory Howard and Costello took an absolute blowtorch to research and development too.
Case count excluding China/Diamond Princess (updated 11pm)
1,994 cases
39 deaths (1.96%)
54 severe (3%)
1,649 mild (83%)
252 recovered (13%)
1,994 cases
39 deaths (1.96%)
54 severe (3%)
1,649 mild (83%)
252 recovered (13%)
Last edited:
The adverse publicity about the spread of illness on cruise ships might see a drop in numbers of retirees going on cruises this year. The glossy ads by the cruise companies don't mention that potential downside. Unfortunately some passengers don't fill out their passenger embarkation health cards honestly. I overheard one saying "Well you can't miss the cruise can you". Passengers should be required to have a medical certificate from their doctor that they are fit to travel and the cruise line should have quick temperature checks for everyone before they get on board. Most cruise lines have hand sanitizer machines before entering the buffet but they are not policed 100% of the time. The hand rails and many other public areas are also a possible source of contamination. I think I've just talked myself out of a cruise this year!
I don't believe it. The Iranian officials seem like good guys. If you can't trust an Iranian official, who can you trust?
Not sure what to believe from Iran. 61 cases/12 deaths is a very high ratio compared to elsewhere.
Pakistan and Turkey have closed their Iranian borders.
those clowns don't know *smile* from clay.
they just want to ruin the economy.
If china has 50,000 cases, and we only have 20, why should we do anything?
it would be economically irresponsible
I saw this bloke on the internet who said the world is actually getting healthier.
he had a graph.
It will be because the only cases in hospitals are the really serious ones. The others who have it probably haven’t been tested so they aren’t reported as cases.
That’s what will happen in underdeveloped countries, the only cases that get reported will be when they are serious
What happens when a COVID-19 pandemic is declared?
With coronavirus now spreading through populations far from its origins in China, experts say it's become a matter of 'when' — not 'if' — the outbreak becomes a pandemic.
That means it's now time for us all to start preparing, according to University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay.
"We need to be aware that we are probably heading for that pandemic even if the World Health Organisation doesn't want to call it that yet," Professor Mackay says.
"It's just a matter of time."
Travel bans and quarantine measures have had success in some parts of the world, but the virus has now started killing people in parts of Iran, Italy and South Korea.
Its highly contagious nature is making it difficult to contain.
When will a pandemic be declared?
The World Health Organisation defines a pandemic as "the worldwide spread of a new disease".
It declared a global health emergency last month, but says it's still too early to declare the outbreak a pandemic.
WHO's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the virus has pandemic potential but, right now, using the word "does not fit the facts but may certainly cause fear".
But that's likely to change if the number of cases keeps growing in Europe, the Middle East and east Asia.
Australia's chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, says even though the virus doesn't appear to be spreading in Australia for now, "if there is a global pandemic, we will be prepared".
"Every part of the health system is now working on its plan so that we're ready if things develop further in the future," he said at a press conference with the Prime Minister today.
He says it's hard to say when a pandemic will be declared.
"The question will evolve over the next few days to see whether the transmission in those countries can be contained or it's sustained.
"If it is sustained in those countries, as it has been in China, I suspect the WHO would make such a call.
"But at the moment, they're not making that call, because those countries are trying to contain."
What should I do to prepare?
Experts say preparation, not panic, is what's needed now.
"We need to think about whether you have enough medication and essential foods such as canned foods, some pasta or food that can give us fibre, carbohydrate and protein for two weeks, if things were to interrupt the supply chain of food," Professor Mackay says.
"Don't forget to prepare for pets as well, with extra supplies of dried pet food and flea treatments in case there are shortages."
But he cautions against panic-buying supplies or hoarding food.
"We don't want to see empty shelves," he says.
"We have time to prepare now by just buying a few extra supplies each time we shop, and set it aside."
Sharon Lewin, from Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, says it'll be even more important for people to get a flu shot before the next flu season.
That's because some people who have contracted the virus overseas have had co-infections, which worsened their conditions.
What's the Government doing?
The Federal Government has a detailed pandemic preparedness plan.
It details how the Government would respond to a pandemic by doing things like:
"Measures will then be scaled up or down as more information becomes known."
Under the plan, state and territory governments are responsible for:
What happens if I catch the virus?
So far, most of the people outside China who have contracted coronavirus have had a mild form of the disease.
"It doesn't look like it is going to cause severe disease in large numbers, but it will in small numbers," Professor Mackay says.
While this coronavirus, formally known as COVID-19, is in the same family as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), it is proving less deadly.
The new virus has a death rate below 2 per cent, while the SARS fatality rate was around 10 per cent.
That means even though many people might be diagnosed with coronavirus, in many people it will be a moderate illness.
But, unlike influenza, there is no effective treatment or vaccine for coronavirus.
The elderly and people with existing health problems are at the highest risk.
"We may see death amongst the elderly, so we need to be thinking about their care," Professor Mackay says.
"We need to make sure they have their medications up to date, have food as well, and talk to the care facilities about what its plans are for something like this pandemic."
As well as following good personal hygiene such as hand washing, experts say we should pay close attention to the advice of local and national public health authorities.
"They are doing a lot of work behind the scenes to make sure we will be as protected as possible."
So, how worried should I be?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says travel bans and quarantine measures have been "very effective" here, and Australians can confidently go about their daily lives as normal.
"In Australia, there is no great risk at this point in time when it comes to human transmission, given the 15 cases [from Wuhan] that were identified have all been cleared and the remaining seven are mild cases, and they are in isolation."
The Doherty Institute's Sharon Lewin, whose lab was the first to grow the virus outside of China, agrees Australia has good plans in place.
"We are an island, but we're not isolated from the rest of the world, so it's not feasible that we can completely isolate ourselves," Professor Lewin says.
"There's been a lot of very detailed thinking of what will happen in the containment phase, which is what we're doing now — where are the labs up to, diagnosis, how would we handle stockpiles of masks and gloves?"
She says major pandemic measures, such as mass school closures and major event cancellations, haven't been taken in Australia before.
"We will be guided by federal and state health departments, but there is absolutely no need to start thinking about that now."
The chief medical officer says there are still a lot of unknowns.
"One of the things I've learned about this virus is it's very hard to predict anything, other than making a daily evaluation of the facts," Professor Murphy says.
- - - - -
If you haven't been taking this thing seriously, you probably should start now.
With coronavirus now spreading through populations far from its origins in China, experts say it's become a matter of 'when' — not 'if' — the outbreak becomes a pandemic.
That means it's now time for us all to start preparing, according to University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay.
"We need to be aware that we are probably heading for that pandemic even if the World Health Organisation doesn't want to call it that yet," Professor Mackay says.
"It's just a matter of time."
Travel bans and quarantine measures have had success in some parts of the world, but the virus has now started killing people in parts of Iran, Italy and South Korea.
Its highly contagious nature is making it difficult to contain.
When will a pandemic be declared?
The World Health Organisation defines a pandemic as "the worldwide spread of a new disease".
It declared a global health emergency last month, but says it's still too early to declare the outbreak a pandemic.
WHO's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, says the virus has pandemic potential but, right now, using the word "does not fit the facts but may certainly cause fear".
But that's likely to change if the number of cases keeps growing in Europe, the Middle East and east Asia.
Australia's chief medical officer, Brendan Murphy, says even though the virus doesn't appear to be spreading in Australia for now, "if there is a global pandemic, we will be prepared".
"Every part of the health system is now working on its plan so that we're ready if things develop further in the future," he said at a press conference with the Prime Minister today.
He says it's hard to say when a pandemic will be declared.
"The question will evolve over the next few days to see whether the transmission in those countries can be contained or it's sustained.
"If it is sustained in those countries, as it has been in China, I suspect the WHO would make such a call.
"But at the moment, they're not making that call, because those countries are trying to contain."
What should I do to prepare?
Experts say preparation, not panic, is what's needed now.
"We need to think about whether you have enough medication and essential foods such as canned foods, some pasta or food that can give us fibre, carbohydrate and protein for two weeks, if things were to interrupt the supply chain of food," Professor Mackay says.
"Don't forget to prepare for pets as well, with extra supplies of dried pet food and flea treatments in case there are shortages."
But he cautions against panic-buying supplies or hoarding food.
"We don't want to see empty shelves," he says.
"We have time to prepare now by just buying a few extra supplies each time we shop, and set it aside."
Sharon Lewin, from Melbourne's Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, says it'll be even more important for people to get a flu shot before the next flu season.
That's because some people who have contracted the virus overseas have had co-infections, which worsened their conditions.
What's the Government doing?
The Federal Government has a detailed pandemic preparedness plan.
It details how the Government would respond to a pandemic by doing things like:
- cancelling large gatherings
- asking people to work from home
- boosting the capability of hospitals to deal with an increased demand for services, such as increasing intensive care beds
"Measures will then be scaled up or down as more information becomes known."
Under the plan, state and territory governments are responsible for:
- the operation of public health responses
- undertaking "contact tracing" — that is, identifying people exposed to those who are infected, and following up with them
- coordinating the distribution of antiviral drugs
- bringing in "social distancing" measures (which could include closing schools and workplaces, quarantining people, cancelling events and even shutting down public transport)
- implementing infection control guidelines and healthcare safety and quality standards
What happens if I catch the virus?
So far, most of the people outside China who have contracted coronavirus have had a mild form of the disease.
"It doesn't look like it is going to cause severe disease in large numbers, but it will in small numbers," Professor Mackay says.
While this coronavirus, formally known as COVID-19, is in the same family as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), it is proving less deadly.
The new virus has a death rate below 2 per cent, while the SARS fatality rate was around 10 per cent.
That means even though many people might be diagnosed with coronavirus, in many people it will be a moderate illness.
But, unlike influenza, there is no effective treatment or vaccine for coronavirus.
The elderly and people with existing health problems are at the highest risk.
"We may see death amongst the elderly, so we need to be thinking about their care," Professor Mackay says.
"We need to make sure they have their medications up to date, have food as well, and talk to the care facilities about what its plans are for something like this pandemic."
As well as following good personal hygiene such as hand washing, experts say we should pay close attention to the advice of local and national public health authorities.
"They are doing a lot of work behind the scenes to make sure we will be as protected as possible."
So, how worried should I be?
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says travel bans and quarantine measures have been "very effective" here, and Australians can confidently go about their daily lives as normal.
"In Australia, there is no great risk at this point in time when it comes to human transmission, given the 15 cases [from Wuhan] that were identified have all been cleared and the remaining seven are mild cases, and they are in isolation."
The Doherty Institute's Sharon Lewin, whose lab was the first to grow the virus outside of China, agrees Australia has good plans in place.
"We are an island, but we're not isolated from the rest of the world, so it's not feasible that we can completely isolate ourselves," Professor Lewin says.
"There's been a lot of very detailed thinking of what will happen in the containment phase, which is what we're doing now — where are the labs up to, diagnosis, how would we handle stockpiles of masks and gloves?"
She says major pandemic measures, such as mass school closures and major event cancellations, haven't been taken in Australia before.
"We will be guided by federal and state health departments, but there is absolutely no need to start thinking about that now."
The chief medical officer says there are still a lot of unknowns.
"One of the things I've learned about this virus is it's very hard to predict anything, other than making a daily evaluation of the facts," Professor Murphy says.
- - - - -
If you haven't been taking this thing seriously, you probably should start now.
You sure those observations are correct?
Are they measuring this constantly or only once a minute or even, horror of horrors, at the same time every day?
Surely there must be another cause for these illnesses, is this the fingerprint of COVID-19 or is that just a theory?
Maybe the immunologists are just conspiring together to create a panic and increase their research funding.
I think I should go and check some "COVID-19 skeptic" sites and see if there's some irrational and baseless explanation I can peddle.
After all, we shouldn't believe experts or scientists should we?
DS
Hmm, I wonder if there is some way of measuring this using a satellite, might conveniently give us a different set of numbers.
Just hope if & when it gets here that it doesn't affect the footy season like it has in some countries already like Serie A in Italy & the K League in South Korea which have had games stopped.
However if in the worst case scenario that it does, thank the heavens that we at least won the flag already last year & in 2017.
However if in the worst case scenario that it does, thank the heavens that we at least won the flag already last year & in 2017.
