AFL Betting Thread

[jb03]

Has a brownlow leak ever been on the mark, geez i cant ever think of one.

Saints too short for my dough H-evo.

As mentioned though I will be puttin my you know whats on the line with the crows tomorrow....

On the brownlow, Leysy is real keen on Brent Harvey this year, reckon he is WAY over the odds.

He's been trimmed in a bit lately but 60's have been readily available until the last week, A mate of mine reckons he's got no hope of beating West,........I dont think so & I've near done a full thesis on my reasoning behind it.

I'll post it on here when ive got time if anyone wants to read my drivel

I've had a nibble at Harvey for a place. I must check Betfair conditions for a place, not sure if it's top 3, 4 or 5.

 

[evo]

I just had a bit on this one couldn't resist.
Head to Head Brownlow
Deledio, B 1.85 
Griffin, R   1.95

Ok I'm on the Aints under 39. at 2.20 :nailbiting

 

[jb03]

I just had a bit on this one couldn't resist.
Head to Head Brownlow
Deledio, B 1.85
Griffin, R 1.95

Interesting bet that. Might have a nibble at some similar types. What odds for leading Richmond vote getter do you know. Imagine it would be out of Tuck and richo, or maybe even Bowden.

 

[mainlandy]

I'm still confident the saints will win by over 39.5 even with the rain forecast. I think Fiona is a good inclusion, if the saints are doing well, I can see Fiona joining in the party. He's the biggest front runner of all time.

Might put something on Hodge for the brownlow, a great year, only problem is the hawks won only 5 games. He may get multiple 1 and 2 voters.

 

[Ready]

Has a brownlow leak ever been on the mark, geez i cant ever think of one.

Moss 1976
Blight 1978
Couch 1989: received an anonymous phone call a few days before telling him the precise number of votes he would receive and that it was enough to win. Price plummeted from 10/1 to 7/4 or thereabouts and they reckon Couch is still annoyed he didn't back himself.

Not in the recent past though.

Think that email is a hoax, for one thing Krakouer's name is spelt incorrectly and pretty sure they're given 1 vote, 2 votes, 3 votes rather than 3, 2, 1.

 

[mainlandy]

Well I've got no idea when it comes to footy. Never seen a team outpointed so badly in the ruck as Stkilda was tonight, it really helps when you get first use of the ball in ruck contests. Well done Sydney.

 

[jb03]

Yep, the only good thing about tonight as I didn't have a bet on it, mainly 'cause the saints were unders. Interestingly both the crows and eagles have firmed in premiership betting without having yet played!

 

[mainlandy]

I just had a bit on this one couldn't resist.
Head to Head Brownlow
Deledio, B 1.85 
Griffin, R   1.95

Ok I'm on the Aints under 39. at 2.20 :nailbiting

That went down to the wire Evo! Glad Deledio pipped him.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Lucky guy.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,16718664%255E19742,00.html

 

[palmyscum]

im hoping for another ripper of a year!!! its time to dust the cob webs off and look at the NAB (Not All Best) Cup. Does anyone have any ideas as to which teams will be fielding strong teams?? my thoughts without reading up on the stances of clubs is that young/quick teams such as tigers, bulldogs ect will preform as will teams desperate for the cash prize...

my best bet is ESSENDON $15.00 knowing that they will have at least 90% of there best players does it for me at this stage and if the win against brisbane who dont take pre-season games seriously they will play against western bulldogs or melbourne at the telstra stadium then may well face a western team in finals

also west coast have a decent draw if they win the first they will play the second match at subi as well...and have a good side if all are fit and picked....fletcher wont play u'd imagine

here are the odds

GEELONG $6.50
1815 WEST COAST $7.00
1816 WESTERN BULLDOGS $7.50
1801 ADELAIDE $9.00
1813 ST KILDA $9.00
1809 KANGAROOS $10.00
1805 ESSENDON $15.00
1806 FREMANTLE $15.00
1812 RICHMOND $15.00
1810 MELBOURNE $16.00
1811 PORT ADELAIDE $16.00
1802 BRISBANE LIONS $18.00
1808 HAWTHORN $18.00
1804 COLLINGWOOD $21.00
1814 SYDNEY $21.00
1803 CARLTON $31.00

 

[evo]

Ah yes about time this got resurrected.

I like Adelaide at 9.00 for the Wok.

North Mlebourne to make the 8 at 2.60 looks like good odds to me at this early stage.

 

[palmyscum]

Ah yes about time this got resurrected.

I like Adelaide at 9.00 for the Wok.

North Mlebourne to make the 8 at 2.60 looks like good odds to me at this early stage.

hahaha yeah!!

early season is where the money is on the afl


i like crows too such a strong group of above average players

 

[jb03]

One of my favourite threads. Essendon should be the swannies so backing them at $15 should allow a trade back for those with BF accounts.

Might try something differenet this year: Lay a few of the favourites to make the 8 There has to be at least one of the favourites who will take an unexpected dive. Can always back them later after they drift.

Reckon the saints are unders for both the flag and the 8. Also think the bulldog hype might outweigh there actual ability and standing and as such look a good lay.

 

[evo]

tend to agree re the Doggies jimbob,they have been a little overhyped in the off season.Darcy going down for another season is a huge blow.They still have a very suspect goal to goal line.I can't see Grant have much impact.And surely West is due to start tappering off.

Like Richmond well coached but still lacking the troops.

I have the feeling Freo might be a good bet for the 8 this year they have a few good young blokes in their 3rd season who don't get alot of press over this side of the country.If they're going bad by midseason,Connolly may be replaced by the Shaw/Harvey combination that would probably see a boost in morale.So there's a sort of double chance with them(if that makes sense)

Brisbane may be a good lay.

 

[Redford]

tend to agree re the Doggies jimbob,they have been a little overhyped in the off season.Darcy going down for another season is a huge blow.They still have a very suspect goal to goal line.I can't see Grant have much impact.And surely West is due to start tappering off.

Like Richmond well coached but still lacking the troops.

I have the feeling Freo might be a good bet for the 8 this year they have a few good young blokes in their 3rd season who don't get alot of press over this side of the country.If they're going bad by midseason,Connolly may be replaced by the Shaw/Harvey combination that would probably see a boost in morale.So there's a sort of double chance with them(if that makes sense)

Brisbane may be a good lay.

They did a wise thing taking Shaw on board because Harvey is a bogan nuffer who Shaw will be able to keep in check.

I expect both Shaw and Harvey will bring a bit of much needed edge to the way Fremantle play the game. And with that (and what has been mentioned above), they should improve. If they don't, goodbye Billy Connolly.

 

[palmyscum]

im going with bullies at $8 they have the best draw and should field strong sides because they need the money.....pencil round 1 win against dee's daniher has allready stated that he is using it as a trial and dosent intend on winning the cup

 

[evo]

Norm Short has Melbourne head to head 3.40-Bulldogs 1.31

This Bulldogs mania is out of control

 

[Leysy Days]

tend to agree re the Doggies jimbob,they have been a little overhyped in the off season.Darcy going down for another season is a huge blow.They still have a very suspect goal to goal line.I can't see Grant have much impact.And surely West is due to start tappering off.

Like Richmond well coached but still lacking the troops.

I have the feeling Freo might be a good bet for the 8 this year they have a few good young blokes in their 3rd season who don't get alot of press over this side of the country.If they're going bad by midseason,Connolly may be replaced by the Shaw/Harvey combination that would probably see a boost in morale.So there's a sort of double chance with them(if that makes sense)

Brisbane may be a good lay.

They did a wise thing taking Shaw on board because Harvey is a bogan nuffer who Shaw will be able to keep in check.

I expect both Shaw and Harvey will bring a bit of much needed edge to the way Fremantle play the game. And with that (and what has been mentioned above), they should improve. If they don't, goodbye Billy Connolly.

ah the ol AFL betting thread, Leysys turnover on his betfair acc will start getting an increase  ;D

big lays for me are Essendon.......on paper there best 22 is OK, however prob have worst depth in league IMO & there primo players are all very very injury prone.....the wheels could well fall off & r best chance for spoon outside carlton!!

agree re Brisbane struggling as well, big names are all under injury clouds & past prime, & as above could fall well past where everytone thinks they will.

The boom on Dogs is huge innit, they do have an excellent nucleas of runners that are all maturing together, Leysy reckons they will make finals but are too short1!

kangas are always overs arent they Evo, they are usually a good betting proposition ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE SEASON

 

[jb03]

The key to the bullies is to hope they have a great NAB cup, lay the short odds before round 1 and if you so wish, bet back at a later stage when they drift.

 

[evo]

Sounds like a good plan jimbob.

I just backed Melbourne under 39 @3.80

and Lions under 39 @2.40