AFL Betting Thread

[evo]

have managed to get quite a bit on geelong for the premiership at 12s.

currently have Saints,Port,Geelong and Brisabane all at either 11 or 12 to 1

Thought you didn't rate the pussies evo.  You could have got $50 for the crows if you listened to me at the start of the year.  Then again, if you listened to me you woould have backed the kangas for the spoon.  Advised you not to drop off Brisbane -- but I didn't listen to my own advice, missed the overs there.  Need them to get thumped by the coasters again then they might be worth backing.

Despite the Coasters being doubtful at the G in the big one, they will surely make it.  Good value even at the $3.10 I reckon.

yeah i got on brissy last 2 weeks at good numbers.

Melbourne are the wild card but feel they have a bit of losing ahead.Plenty of time to get on.

West coast arent value at the moment.
]not sure what to do about the Crows.Definite spanner in the works.

 

[jb03]

have managed to get quite a bit on geelong for the premiership at 12s.

currently have Saints,Port,Geelong and Brisabane all at either 11 or 12 to 1

Thought you didn't rate the pussies evo. You could have got $50 for the crows if you listened to me at the start of the year. Then again, if you listened to me you woould have backed the kangas for the spoon. Advised you not to drop off Brisbane -- but I didn't listen to my own advice, missed the overs there. Need them to get thumped by the coasters again then they might be worth backing.

Despite the Coasters being doubtful at the G in the big one, they will surely make it. Good value even at the $3.10 I reckon.

yeah i got on brissy last 2 weeks at good numbers.

Melbourne are the wild card but feel they have a bit of losing ahead.Plenty of time to get on.

West coast arent value at the moment.
]not sure what to do about the Crows.Definite spanner in the works.

Disagree about west coast. Everyone knows they will finish top and have two home finals so there odds are unlikely to move much at all - excpet perhaps if the game this week against the Lions is a blow out either way.

Almost certain to make the granny, where they will be at the most $2.00 means anything above $3.00 to me is appealing. Any other team had a 14-1 record they would just about be odds on.

 

[FightingFury]

have managed to get quite a bit on geelong for the premiership at 12s.

currently have Saints,Port,Geelong and Brisabane all at either 11 or 12 to 1

Thought you didn't rate the pussies evo.  You could have got $50 for the crows if you listened to me at the start of the year.  Then again, if you listened to me you woould have backed the kangas for the spoon.  Advised you not to drop off Brisbane -- but I didn't listen to my own advice, missed the overs there.  Need them to get thumped by the coasters again then they might be worth backing.

Despite the Coasters being doubtful at the G in the big one, they will surely make it.  Good value even at the $3.10 I reckon.

yeah i got on brissy last 2 weeks at good numbers.

Melbourne are the wild card but feel they have a bit of losing ahead.Plenty of time to get on.

West coast arent value at the moment.
]not sure what to do about the Crows.Definite spanner in the works.

Disagree about west coast.  Everyone knows they will finish top and have two home finals so there odds are unlikely to move much at all - excpet perhaps if the game this week against the Lions is a blow out either way.

Almost certain to make the granny, where they will be at the most $2.00 means anything above $3.00 to me is appealing.  Any other team had a 14-1 record they would just about be odds on.

Any other side would have a better record at the MCG JumpingBean 03

 

[jb03]

have managed to get quite a bit on geelong for the premiership at 12s.

currently have Saints,Port,Geelong and Brisabane all at either 11 or 12 to 1

Thought you didn't rate the pussies evo. You could have got $50 for the crows if you listened to me at the start of the year. Then again, if you listened to me you woould have backed the kangas for the spoon. Advised you not to drop off Brisbane -- but I didn't listen to my own advice, missed the overs there. Need them to get thumped by the coasters again then they might be worth backing.

Despite the Coasters being doubtful at the G in the big one, they will surely make it. Good value even at the $3.10 I reckon.

yeah i got on brissy last 2 weeks at good numbers.

Melbourne are the wild card but feel they have a bit of losing ahead.Plenty of time to get on.

West coast arent value at the moment.
]not sure what to do about the Crows.Definite spanner in the works.

Disagree about west coast. Everyone knows they will finish top and have two home finals so there odds are unlikely to move much at all - excpet perhaps if the game this week against the Lions is a blow out either way.

Almost certain to make the granny, where they will be at the most $2.00 means anything above $3.00 to me is appealing. Any other team had a 14-1 record they would just about be odds on.

Any other side would have a better record at the MCG JumpingBean 03

They've only lost one there this year. Unfair to include recent years when they were a poor team. Last time they were a powerhouse they won two flags at the 'G.

 

[FightingFury]

have managed to get quite a bit on geelong for the premiership at 12s.

currently have Saints,Port,Geelong and Brisabane all at either 11 or 12 to 1

Thought you didn't rate the pussies evo.  You could have got $50 for the crows if you listened to me at the start of the year.  Then again, if you listened to me you woould have backed the kangas for the spoon.  Advised you not to drop off Brisbane -- but I didn't listen to my own advice, missed the overs there.  Need them to get thumped by the coasters again then they might be worth backing.

Despite the Coasters being doubtful at the G in the big one, they will surely make it.  Good value even at the $3.10 I reckon.

yeah i got on brissy last 2 weeks at good numbers.

Melbourne are the wild card but feel they have a bit of losing ahead.Plenty of time to get on.

West coast arent value at the moment.
]not sure what to do about the Crows.Definite spanner in the works.

Disagree about west coast.  Everyone knows they will finish top and have two home finals so there odds are unlikely to move much at all - excpet perhaps if the game this week against the Lions is a blow out either way.

Almost certain to make the granny, where they will be at the most $2.00 means anything above $3.00 to me is appealing.  Any other team had a 14-1 record they would just about be odds on.

Any other side would have a better record at the MCG JumpingBean 03

They've only lost one there this year.  Unfair to include recent years when they were a poor team.  Last time they were a powerhouse they won two flags at the 'G.

Got pumped by bottom of the ladder Fagpies(at the time),and beat us by 2 points while we were in a trough.
They are a good side with legitimate queries at the G.

 

[Leysy Days]

got to agree with JB that WC's price isnt going to go up even if they drop a couple,

They are still gonna get 2 at home, prob be about $1.30 both matches.

Then if they win those would think about $2.00 on GF day, shorter if they play Crows.

Anyways what have we come up with in the Golf fella's, think it was Struggler who mentioned long hitters,  all media reports are saying exactly that.

on that Premis, & also that Tiger is too short IMO, I like Vijay @$17 & Davis Love  XIIV  @$38 both are long hitters with bags of experience, Love has apparently been carving the course up in practice as well.

One local also seems to do invariably well at these champs, maybe Paul Casey who strikes it long but is having a bad year, but at $410/1 you dont need much on him..

 

[evo]

got to agree with JB that WC's price isnt going to go up even if they drop a couple,

They are still gonna get 2 at home, prob be about $1.30 both matches.

Then if they win those would think about $2.00 on GF day, shorter if they play Crows.

This is not a sledge at JB  because his post reperesent 'conventional wisdom' but he was giving me similar advice this time last season in regards to only Brisbane can win the flag.The secret to the long term premiership  bet is never say never.YOu have weigh up the pro's and cons each week. 2/1 is very thin odds for about a 6 hourse race 10 furlongs(games) from the finishing post.Not saying i'll get way better odds.Just no use giving them my money so far away for no added benefit.Lets just see how Brissy go against them this week http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=182711

 

[jb03]

got to agree with JB that WC's price isnt going to go up even if they drop a couple,

They are still gonna get 2 at home, prob be about $1.30 both matches.

Then if they win those would think about $2.00 on GF day, shorter if they play Crows.

This is not a sledge at JB because his post reperesent 'conventional wisdom' but he was giving me similar advice this time last season in regards to only Brisbane can win the flag.The secret to the long term premiership bet is never say never.YOu have weigh up the pro's and cons each week. 2/1 is very thin odds for about a 6 hourse race 10 furlongs(games) from the finishing post.Not saying i'll get way better odds.Just no use giving them my money so far away for no added benefit.Lets just see how Brissy go against them this week http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=182711

Yes the argument works both ways I guess. We all know west coast will finish top and have two home finals so if they are $3.10 they will likley to be about those odds come finals time. I think my thing with Brisbane last year was not that only Brisbane could win the flag but that they wouldn't drift out any further after about round 16 . You'll recall I was a little concerned you didn;t have the Cats going but as it turned out they got beatne in the Prelim.

The thing that gets me with the eagles they are 14-1, whichever way you analyse it, that is a terrific record.

And struggs, I don't think the one loss to the dees prior to the coasters loss constituted a trough for the tigers. Nor was the coasters loss to the Pies a pumping.

With a reasonable run with injuries, they just have far fewer queries on them than any other team.

For a long term bet, the tigers at $65 are actually the value with their soft draw. The only thing is, as a Richmond supporter, you know their history too well.

BTW, Tim to win Big Brother looks a moral (remember last year I tipped Trevor 10 weeks out!)

 

[evo]

Tim's a pretty good call actually.Might have something on that.

Kate would have to be a bit of a chance maybe?And what about the Logans

 

[jb03]

Tim's a pretty good call actually.Might have something on that.

Kate would have to be a bit of a chance maybe?And what about the Logans

Woman around the world have a very poor record in Big Brothers. It's mainly women who vote and with risk of an outcry, their general bitchiness dictates that they vote out other woman. So rule out all women.

The Logans can't win becuase they are too smug and a bit full of themselves. Ditto Dean who is likely to go this week. Also, Australians will perceive the Logans had an advantage by being two so will vote them out. That leaves Tim as the only male and going on previous years, non threatening 'nice blokes' generally win.

I snapped up $3.20 but he has firmed marginally in to $2.70 or so. Still value I reckon. (INteresting to note he is into $2.10 at Centrebet)

 

[mb64]

Take the doggies on handicap this week.

 

[jb03]

Not sure mb. I think they are over rated. Everyone thought they would be the big mover but they've only won 6 games and just got belted by a team that everyone was labelling as terrible. You can get 1.90 at the 30 point line if you wish.

I'm not exactly sure what Eade has done there aside from rescue Gilbee's career.

 

[mb64]

Not sure mb. I think they are over rated. Everyone thought they would be the big mover but they've only won 6 games and just got belted by a team that everyone was labelling as terrible. You can get 1.90 at the 30 point line if you wish.

I'm not exactly sure what Eade has done there aside from rescue Gilbee's career.

He's done alot more than Rhode,they have also been in a position to win more games.I think 2006 & 2007 will be very good years.They have suffered key injuries but no complaining from Eade.I think their future is very good.Take the 1.90.

 

[Leysy Days]

Have to agree that long-term ie '06 & 07' the Dogs will def improve, they do have a good band of young runners, however it will all hinge on them getting a key forward,

my only worry this week MB is the travelling two weeks on the bounce, every team that has done that this year has been belted the second week.

onto BB, yeah I checked the odds out earlier in the week, Tim does look the winner, JB is spot on in regards to women not winning, in the UK a male has won most years, although last year was a transexual so not sure what youd class that as. :

I actually had a little on the Logans @5.40 & a saver on Tim who does look the winner.  I just think the Logans are clear second pick (with the female teenybobber vote)& will therefore make the last two.  should easily be able to lay off for a decent profit from there.  thats my theory anyway.

about the eagles price, think we're all prob saying the roundabout same thing, ie there price is going to be almost indentical (around $3.00) from now until the start of finals.

 

[FightingFury]

Its a shame you can't bet week to week on BB as I know who's getting the Khyber every week,but they only take bets for the winner.

 

[evo]

I'm with you jb.Gee the Dogs get an easy ride in the press and from the general public.Every year we hear how they aren't far away and how talented their young side is and blah blah.Meanwhile a Crows or a Richmond (this year) can just zoom past them without much problem.

Everyone talks about the way Saints and Freo have squandered all their low picks,well the dogs have been down their with them for good quality picks too.Eade,schmeade

Having said that I feel the Doggies will win this week. ;D

 

[palmyscum]

High-Low's for this week

melbournes weather is forecast to be wet fri, sat, sun

Highs: Melbourne, WC, Crows - melbourne is an outside chance because games indoors and they are due and have the wood over sydney.....West Coast will burst Brisbane's bubble in a shoot out still think brisbane have been playing weak sides whereas west coast have been having tough fort wins...Crows are favs with key forwards and midfield players firing

Lows: Dons, Port, Blues, dawks... dont like bombers game at all , collingwood much better backline and midfield will win in a slug fest....Port great side on paper but if scarlet can cut out tredrea and its raining i think port will struggle..blues and hawks self explanatory

My tip is Crows with either dons or blues

 

[palmyscum]

does anyone want me to do some research for leading disposals and most goals for everygame cause if there is interest ill do it?

 

[evo]

I don't do those disposal bets impact but a good mate has some sucess with them.I'd incluse North at the TD in your highs impact.Hawthorn have a habit of being blown away and north love TD.

I'm thinking Richmond under 39 arent a bad bet this week.Norm short has them at 3.20 currently,seems a bargain.For some reason this year i seem to have the Tiges well pegged for the 1st time in years.Only got them wrong once against Adelaide.

Looks like it's going to rain,after seeing us play in the rain last week I feel it's a pretty big advantage to us.Inside I reckon Tuck and Cogs are right there with Lenny and Ball.

Thinking Geelong will bounce back this week.Port are soft,especially in the rian and it's at unskilled stadium.Significant ins for Geelong including Ling.

Rich under 39  Geelong under 39--3.20*2.45 seems like value

Thoughts.

 

[jb03]

Its a shame you can't bet week to week on BB as I know who's getting the Khyber every week,but they only take bets for the winner.

Bubbles, Centrebet have a market for each weeks eviction and the Friday night game winner. Dean is currently $1.50 to go this week but I reckon Rita is just as likely. You can get big odds on Kate or Tim.


Impact, remember the new rule of high low betting. Always take Carl and Hawks for the low and their opponents for the high. Then throw in a couple of smokies (a la the cats last week). But don't bother coupling the Hawks and Blues directly with their opponent, no value and rarely occurs.

As for disposal betting, up until this year I've been a regular becuase it gives interest in otherwise dull games but the Dreamteam comp has provided interest there. IT's also hard to find value. I had Cousins to beat Harvey in WA a couple of years ago and Cousins had 35 and lost. That little sh!t Harvey kept taking the kickouts and playing on, and then giving these little one-two handballs. Geez I got frustrated.

Agree evo re the dogs. Despite the promise of Cooney their best players are still West Johnson and Smith.