Acceptance - we are now a middling side

[bullus_hit]

Do you seriously think this is where we will finish?

It was always a possibility, the sensible appraisal at the end of the year would have been taking both 2021 & 2022 and taking the mid point to establish where we stand, that's a finish somewhere around 9th or 10th. The question then beckons, will two inside mids take us to top 4 and how is our contingency planning in the event we cop some injuries or suffer some decline in form from our ageing stars? As it turns out, all of the above has eventuated, so the problem actually lies with our own internal assessments and our contingency planning. A lot of the hero worshipping has been classic premiership hangover stuff, the snobbery when it came to Grundy sums that up perfectly.

As for top 10 picks, the Jackson years proved that this is your bread & butter in building a competitive list, the odds of a core player pretty good - Cotch, Dusty, Vlastuin or in the event of failure, reasonable draft capital if things turn pear shaped eg. Vickery. The only real blunder over the 2006-2016 period was Conca and just about every mug punter called that out the moment it transpired. You could have thrown a dart with a blindfold and still landed a better performer - and that's perhaps being harsh on a footballer who managed 150 games at the top level.

 

[MD Jazz]

It was always a possibility,

Was or is? You didn't answer the question./

It's round 4.

 

[mrposhman]

Losing (or drawing) close games is an interesting one.

If we look at the close games this year:

Carlton: we should have been way ahead, our delivery into the forward 50 is what killed us and in the end we managed to pull a draw out of our rear ends when it looked like a loss with a minute to go.
Collingwood: our play was good enough to lose by 14 points when we were clearly out played for the whole game. Shouldn't have been close, they should have won by more.
Footscray: we played well for maybe 20 minutes. They dominated the clearances. Again, we were much closer than we really deserved to be.

The Carlton game is problematic as better inside 50 entries would have won us the game, but we did salvage a draw from what was looking like a loss.

The Collingwood and Footscray games shouldn't have been close, we should have lost by more. It wasn't so much a case of Richmond losing a close game as Richmond turning what should have been a substantial loss into a close game.

DS

I think you are selling us a bit short. We have been masters of our downfall for much of the season so far.

Carlton - Agree with what you say
Collingwood - Generally agree with what you say, we were outplayed and they performed a lot better than us that day
Dogs - I don't really agree. We did play well for about 20 minutes and we were smashed in clearances BUT in terms of overall play, we were well in the game, the difference in Inside 50's was largely as a result of our poor play rather than their good. Whilst they smashed us at stoppage I don't think they really created a great advantage out of it, a lot were bombs in our D50 and bar a few umpire howlers, we dealt with that well all night. If our disposal had been better throughout the game, I'm firmly of the belief that we win on Saturday.

The good thing about most of what has gone wrong for us, is its fixable. We have the right players to make clearances work for us, but probably have the wrong mix at times.

In our heyday, we had a nice mix, our go to clearance team was Dusty (power), Cotch (defensive side) and Meatball (see ball gets ball). I feel our mix at the moment is very one dimensional in that Meatball, Taranto and Hopper all perform similar roles at the centre bounce. We need to mix that up, and thats where Dusty and Shai need to come in more, and we need 1 of them (I like Taranto doing it) playing that sweeper role at the back of the stoppage. We have enough quality to have better matchups when opposition have their 2nd string centre bounce team in there, we just need a better mix.

The other thing is around decision making and execution. Against Carlton we lost due to execution in our forward half, as I've said before, Jack was burnt at least 3 times by kicks into F50 from some of our best kicks (Graham, Short and Dusty) and we have struggled with disposal from our back half against both Collingwood and the Dogs and much of that was due to poor decision making as opposed to not having the skills. Bakes went from being superb against Collingwood to costing us a number of goals, not due to poor skills, he was still so clean at the contest he just chose the wrong option. We hesitated and took 2nd options a lot on Saturday, we just need to be reminded to play on instinct (what made us so good through the premiership years) and looking and taking the 1st option.

 

[tigertime2]

The last time we played like we have in 2022 and now this year 2023 was in 2015 2016. the game plan was too complicated. players had to overthink rather than be natural. Balme came in and changed to 5 basic principles and the rest is history. I feel we have the talent and the manpower to challenge for a flag. we just have not clicked fully yet. There are patches of absolute scintillating footy. I still think we are in this year.
We are capable of kicking 8 goals a quarter. If we have 2 quaters a game were we kick 8 goals we will be in every match and win most of them.

 

[bullus_hit]

Was or is? You didn't answer the question./

It's round 4.

I think we will struggle to make top 8, the improvement in St Kilda & Essendon makes challenging all the more difficult. With Lynch done we probably have the worst forward line in the competition, I have more confidence in North Melbourne's forward set-up if the truth be known. I don't think we'll emerge from the next month with a positive win/loss ratio, I think our current position will be around the mark.

 

[Brodders17]

The only real blunder over the 2006-2016 period was Conca and just about every mug punter called that out the moment it transpired. You could have thrown a dart with a blindfold and still landed a better performer - and that's perhaps being harsh on a footballer who managed 150 games at the top level.

Or you could have landed on Harley Bennell, Sam Day (probably even), Jared Polec (I know who i would rather), Daniel Gorringe, Lucas Cook or Sebastian Tape, Billie Smedts, Ben Jacobs, Matthew Watson or Jayden Pitt, - all top 20 picks in that draft.

Yes there were better players around Conca, but I would put him in the top 50% of the top 20 picks, and the top 6 picks,

 

[Brodders17]

I think we will struggle to make top 8, the improvement in St Kilda & Essendon makes challenging all the more difficult.

You're jumping on Essendon after they have beaten the Hawks, Suns (in Melb) and Giants?
While the Saints have beaten Freo (in Melb), the Dogs (not a bad win), Essendon and the Suns (in Melb)?

Our draw against the Blues, and win against the Crows in Adelaide stacks up against both their records.

 

[The Big Richo]

The draft might solve a couple of issues with some bargain hunting but for top end talent it's free agency or trading something of value. The problem being is that there is very little tradeable capital at our disposal, we'd have to look at Short, I think he gets interest, I think we may get a pick in the 30-40 range for Graham, I think there could be benefits there when rebalancing the list. Currently we have a glut of inside midfielders but we lack top end class, that has to be sourced from somewhere. Parish perhaps? I'm not sure, there's also the issue of a couple of key forwards that needs to be addressed. Larkey probably stays, Ben King I think too fragile, Marshall a possibility I suppose.

It's crossed my mind a couple of times whether we will try and offload some of our champs on big deals. Dustin or Lynch might be candidates to head to a team in contention, I wonder if we will even get to the point where we look at Taranto or Hopper.

 

[eZyT]

I wonder if we will even get to the point where we look at Taranto or Hopper.

Off-loading blokes 4 games in?

You should apply for the list manager job at GC.

 

[mrposhman]

BTW, to all those negative nellies. Where were people actually expecting us to be after say 6 rounds? 6-0, 0-6?

Personally, I was going to be happy if we were around middle of the ledger (3-3 would be fine). Tough start to the year, we always seem to start seasons slowly.

If we beat the Swans next week, we will be 2-1-2 after 5 games and pretty much right on middle of the ledger. Even if we lose to Melbourne the week after, we are basically still in that middle of the ledger scenario.

 

[The Big Richo]

Off-loading blokes 4 games in?

You should apply for the list manager job at GC.

I'm talking in the scenario that for whatever reason we are not in the shape we hoped list wise and are not contending for a few years. Come the end of the season if we are a middling side then we are going to need to get working at getting out of the pickle we have created.

Offloading guys not long after signing them has been done before and may be the best way forward. I've said before Taranto and Hopper are older than any of our 2017 midfielders, look where they all were 4 years later.

All hypothetical, I'm not ruling out that we can make a run at it this year or next, I'm merely running the alternate scenario as a discussion.

 

[TigerFurious]

It's crossed my mind a couple of times whether we will try and offload some of our champs on big deals. Dustin or Lynch might be candidates to head to a team in contention, I wonder if we will even get to the point where we look at Taranto or Hopper.

This is how clubs end up spending 20+ years mired in mediocrity.

You cannot rebuild on youth alone, more so under the current soft cap regulations. Maybe in the past we could have just hired another 5 assistants to shadow the kids but not now. You need experience guiding the youth or else they develop bad habits, get gifted games when not deserving or develop a less than professional culture. Basically GCS.

 

[mrposhman]

I think we will struggle to make top 8, the improvement in St Kilda & Essendon makes challenging all the more difficult. With Lynch done we probably have the worst forward line in the competition, I have more confidence in North Melbourne's forward set-up if the truth be known. I don't think we'll emerge from the next month with a positive win/loss ratio, I think our current position will be around the mark.

Thats a big jump to Saints and Essendon.

I've looked at the 1st 6 rounds (and the first 4) and assigned a difficulty rating. Its purely maths (so no personal preference), where I have assigned last years ladder position to each club and doubled it for their home game. So for example, Geelong finished top of the ladder, playing away to Geelong you get a score of 1, playing home to them you get a score of 2. Lowest score is the harder draw, highest score is the easiest.

Essendon have the 17th hardest 1st 4 rounds, and St Kilda the 15t. Ie. the 2nd and 4th easiest draws to open the season. Yes they have started well, but lets see how they go.

I can't believe how many people are jumping at shadows after 4 rounds!!

 

[spook]

I've said before Taranto and Hopper are older than any of our 2017 midfielders,

You might have said it before. It wasn't right then either. Hopper turns 26 this year, Taranto 25. In 2017, Dustin and Lambert turned 26, Cotch 27, Edwards and Grigg 29, Dion 25.

 

[eZyT]

All hypothetical, I'm not ruling out that we can make a run at it this year or next, I'm merely running the alternate scenario as a discussion.

Of course,

Hypothetical is our bread and butter in here.

But i still reckon you'de be great at the GC.

When they hypothetically want to re-sign rory atkins at $750 a year until hes 38,

Youde provide the perfect counterweight.

You may come unstuck when they want to draft Harley Reid this year though,

Hypothetically

 

[bullus_hit]

Or you could have landed on Harley Bennell, Sam Day (probably even), Jared Polec (I know who i would rather), Daniel Gorringe, Lucas Cook or Sebastian Tape, Billie Smedts, Ben Jacobs, Matthew Watson or Jayden Pitt, - all top 20 picks in that draft.

Yes there were better players around Conca, but I would put him in the top 50% of the top 20 picks, and the top 6 picks,

You could probably use those names as an example of the do's & don'ts of top end recruiting. Skinny outside types in the top 5 a recipe for disaster, tall forwards whilst a requirement come with a 50% strike rate, Cook was the same recruiter who took Trengove over Dusty & Toumpass over Wines - no surprises there. Smedts was a classic Wells reach, his record in the top 20 average at best. I'm talking about Heppell who had strong support on here, Darling was my pick. then there was Prestia, Lynch & Smith. This was also a compromised draft so many of the busts probably 2nd round in any regular year.

And yes, Conca was a poor choice but not butchery on a grand scale, probably more a late teens pick which was the region most had him. Emma Quayle had him at 18 from memory.

 

[The Big Richo]

You might have said it before. It wasn't right then either. Hopper turns 26 this year, Taranto 25. In 2017, Dustin and Lambert turned 26, Cotch 27, Edwards and Grigg 29, Dion 25.

That AFL sycophant and umpire loving cocksmack @thebigricho keeps misquoting me. I didn't say our entire midfield, I said this:

People keep saying Taranto and Hopper are long term prospects even if we have to rebuild but Cotchin was 27 in 2017, Prestia was 24, Martin 25, Edwards 25, and Lambert 25. Four years later they were all declining, struggling or gone in one way or another.

Taranto and Hopper are 25 and 26 now, if we don't contend in the next 2 or 3 years we are doing it once they are on the decline at best.

I was wrong about Edwards age, but when you jump forward to 2021 Martin, Cotchin, Edwards and Prestia played 16, 17, 16 and 9 games respectively.

If we rebuild and are ready to go in three seasons time, Taranto and Hopper will be role players if we are lucky.

 

[Brodders17]

That AFL sycophant and umpire loving cocksmack @thebigricho keeps misquoting me. I didn't say our entire midfield, I said this:



I was wrong about Edwards age, but when you jump forward to 2021 Martin, Cotchin, Edwards and Prestia played 16, 17, 16 and 9 games respectively.

If we rebuild and are ready to go in three seasons time, Taranto and Hopper will be role players if we are lucky.

so what you're saying is Tarranto and Hopper will lead us to 3 out of the next 4 premierships before struggling to stay fit from 2027 onwards?

 

[The Big Richo]

so what you're saying is Tarranto and Hopper will lead us to 3 out of the next 4 premierships before struggling to stay fit from 2027 onwards?

I think that was certainly the general idea when we brought them in, make hay while the list shines.

The length of their contracts unquestionably contain some 'bonus years'.

 

[Brodders17]

I think that was certainly the general idea when we brought them in, make hay while the list shines.

The length of their contracts unquestionably contain some 'bonus years'.

It would be tough watching them play out the last couple of years of their contracts if it plays out that way, for sure.