2024 Draft Thread

[Mr Brightside]

There is very good mail around, daniel, that Blair is in negotiations right now around picks 10 and 13.

And there is mail around that Blair is negotiations right now for GWS 15.

We know that RFC is mad on FOS and wants him at #2. And that Chortle-on is mad on FOS and wants him at #3.

Spook is making sense of this stuff. And very good sense of it IMO.

FWIW I reckon his final scenario is a bit optimistic but eh. We're trying to make sense of Blair's bigger picture in light of the new info that's getting around. The Port mail is rock solid. The GWS mail probably is.

What we think of the business after Blair does is, well, is even harder to predict than the business itself. On the face of it I think it'd be a miracle for Blair to pull that off but you're thinking maybe it's not enough. We'll get a bit more information soon enough and maybe it will work out to the satisfaction of all.

I’ve come up with a very simple theory Jack , land pick 2 or don’t bother trading up , imho we need FoS to go with Lalor , there future class above in the mids , if we can’t get the 2 elites then stock pile .

My guess is it wouldn’t be impossible to get 2 and 7 with the later picks we have , so then we’d hit the draft with 1,2,6 and 7 , obviously lose 10,11,18,20 ish , not sure if that’s better or not with the even draft ? I still think there’s a little more gap between the top 3 then next 5 ish and the next dozen or so then most think

 

[bullus_hit]

We're getting shafted all that to get pick 2 and get 7 when we got 6. Pick 24 let alone is gold first pick the second night clubs will come at us with a first rounder. In that twenty range where we have multiple picks that's we're all the KP players will go . No for me.

If we rate Langford which I most certainly do then we keep pick 6, this is prime realestate.

1. Ashcroft (Bris)
2. Lalor (Rich)
3. O'Sullivan (Rich)
4. Smillie (Carl)
5. Draper (Adel)
6. Smith (Melb)
7. Langford (Rich)
8. Tauru (North)
9. Armstrong (Saints)
10. Reid (Melb)
11. Travaglia (Freo)
12. Allan (West Coast)
13. Lindsay(Port)
14. Trainor (North)
15. Hotton (Saints)

This looks roughly like the thinking in clubland, Richmond may need to deal with multiple clubs and shuffle the picks accordingly.

 

[Redford]

According to McGowan, Reid is sliding because of concerns over his speed and slight frame.

Think I mentioned this a few months ago as being an issue, but in any case, 20 seems pretty extreme.

 

[Mr Brightside]

According to McGowan, Reid is sliding because of concerns over his speed and slight frame.

Think I mentioned this a few months ago as being an issue, but in any case, 20 seems pretty extreme.

There’s nothing not to like about him , has a bit of Sidebottom class ( not ass) , however I just don’t see him as a top 10

 

[mrposhman]

Righto, old man. Just for you:

Port:
Out: 13, 29
In: 10, 37

Why? They want Travaglia and so do West Coast. They now pick before West Coast.

GWS:
Out: 15, 37
In: 23, 24

Why? Brings their 4th pick into the deep section of the draft and gives them 16, 21, 23, 24 so some degree of control over who they bring in. Also gives them the option to trade for an F1 while still holding a strong hand in this draft. And the coveted first pick of night 2.

St Kilda:
Out: 7, 32
In: 13, 18

Why? Gives them an extra pick in the first round. Giving 7 instead of 8 assures Richmond they won't steal our guy (Smillie) (Heheh, see what I did there?).

Richmond:
Out: 6, 10, 18, 20, 23, 24
In: 2, 7, 15, 29, 32, F2

Why? Secures pick 2, doesn't really affect getting Smillie given North is picking Tauru.

North:
Out: 2, F2
In: 6, 20

Why? Get Tauru and a good pick where they'll have a stack of options.

We now have 1, 2, 7, 11, 15, 29, 32 and an F2.
Lalor, FOS, Smillie, Hotton/Allan, Whitlock, and who the hell knows.

Not bad.

If you break it down.

6, 10 and 18 all upgraded into 2, 7 and 15
23 probably offsets with F2
20 and 24 downgraded to 29 and 32

That would be a massive win for me personally.

 

[Mr Brightside]

If we rate Langford which I most certainly do then we keep pick 6, this is prime realestate.

1. Ashcroft (Bris)
2. Lalor (Rich)
3. O'Sullivan (Rich)
4. Smillie (Carl)
5. Draper (Adel)
6. Smith (Melb)
7. Langford (Rich)
8. Tauru (North)
9. Armstrong (Saints)
10. Reid (Melb)
11. Travaglia (Freo)
12. Allan (West Coast)
13. Lindsay(Port)
14. Trainor (North)
15. Hotton (Saints)

This looks roughly like the thinking in clubland, Richmond may need to deal with multiple clubs and shuffle the picks accordingly.

Would love that Bully for our first 3 picks.

Could then target other areas, if Dobson landed with us later there’s our rd 1 2027 starting midfield to destroy the ageing blues mids

 

[year of the tiger]

Better chance of Google paying Russia’s $100 decillion dollar fine.

How about the AFL just fold lolnorf as they are clearly a basket case and just give us #2 because we are nice guys now.

 

[daniel30]

If we rate Langford which I most certainly do then we keep pick 6, this is prime realestate.

1. Ashcroft (Bris)
2. Lalor (Rich)
3. O'Sullivan (Rich)
4. Smillie (Carl)
5. Draper (Adel)
6. Smith (Melb)
7. Langford (Rich)
8. Tauru (North)
9. Armstrong (Saints)
10. Reid (Melb)
11. Travaglia (Freo)
12. Allan (West Coast)
13. Lindsay(Port)
14. Trainor (North)
15. Hotton (Saints)

This looks roughly like the thinking in clubland, Richmond may need to deal with multiple clubs and shuffle the picks accordingly.

Get you mate. My worry bully is that we loose those multiple picks in the twenty range where Shanahan, Faull, Sim and Whitlock are. We still got 11 and 15 , but that might be a bit of a reach for some of them.

 

[mrposhman]

Get you mate. My worry bully is that we loose those multiple picks in the twenty range where Shanahan, Faull, Sim and Whitlock are. We still got 11 and 15 , but that might be a bit of a reach for some of them.

We can still trade back again. Potentially trading Pick 15 back again in live trades. From seeing most rankings Sims is more likely to be mid to late 30's, along with Mraz, O'Farrell etc.

 

[TigerPort]

If we rate Langford which I most certainly do then we keep pick 6, this is prime realestate.

1. Ashcroft (Bris)
2. Lalor (Rich)
3. O'Sullivan (Rich)
4. Smillie (Carl)
5. Draper (Adel)
6. Smith (Melb)
7. Langford (Rich)
8. Tauru (North)
9. Armstrong (Saints)
10. Reid (Melb)
11. Travaglia (Freo)
12. Allan (West Coast)
13. Lindsay(Port)
14. Trainor (North)
15. Hotton (Saints)

This looks roughly like the thinking in clubland, Richmond may need to deal with multiple clubs and shuffle the picks accordingly.

Lalor, FOS and Langford plus 2025 1st pick Sets the midfield for the long term

Still need talls

 

[Willo]

This is plausible, @Scoop. Terrific work.

Agreed. Well done Spoop.

 

[tigersnake]

According to McGowan, Reid is sliding because of concerns over his speed and slight frame.

Think I mentioned this a few months ago as being an issue, but in any case, 20 seems pretty extreme.

Pace and up-and-under kicking under pressure my concerns. No doubting he's good, just some doubts over top 10 good for me.

 

[bullus_hit]

Get you mate. My worry bully is that we loose those multiple picks in the twenty range where Shanahan, Faull, Sim and Whitlock are. We still got 11 and 15 , but that might be a bit of a reach for some of them.

I think we can sacrifice one of those picks, I have Sims ranked higher than most so there's still value to be had late second round. Jack Whitlock is my first preference, don't mind his brother but I'm more focused on a player with good goal kicking technique. In saying that Ben King has made the transition from defender to forward so there's upside where Matt is concerned. Faull should still be around around pick 20, I think he's very gettable. Dodson not a bad pick if we're planning on using him as our Nankervis replacement.

 

[year of the tiger]

Better chance of Google paying Russia’s $100 decillion dollar fine.

You mean $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000: now I get it…….

 

[Leysy Days]

I’ve come up with a very simple theory Jack , land pick 2 or don’t bother trading up , imho we need FoS to go with Lalor , there future class above in the mids , if we can’t get the 2 elites then stock pile .

My guess is it wouldn’t be impossible to get 2 and 7 with the later picks we have , so then we’d hit the draft with 1,2,6 and 7 , obviously lose 10,11,18,20 ish , not sure if that’s better or not with the even draft ? I still think there’s a little more gap between the top 3 then next 5 ish and the next dozen or so then most think

Personally, not keen on trading up many (if any) of those later 4 picks into this year.

They are our gateway into another ripper draft in 25'. Better served there ILO. We need more than only our first rd pick next year. Especially when we'll get overs for them.

Potentially big overs.

 

[Leysy Days]

Not bad.

If you break it down.

6, 10 and 18 all upgraded into 2, 7 and 15
23 probably offsets with F2
20 and 24 downgraded to 29 and 32

That would be a massive win for me personally.

Not sure 23 off sets F2.

23 will get us into the first round next year. And not necessarily late in the round.

F2 will end up 25+, probably later.

 

[Dyer'ere]

McGowan has plenty of information here for us. He is linking RFC and Smillie. But only through Park Orchards and the romance.

He can't nail Langford to Adelaide. He seems to want to link his opinion or even his recruiter(s) consultant's opinion that Langford is next best in order.

I believe Ogilvie is into Smith. I can't rule out another. But he wants Smith. If Ogilvie doesn't take Smith I'm not sure where Smith falls. I'm not seeing a Taylor type. Nor a SOS type.

He doesn't know who Taylor wants. Looks like he has St Kilda mail. And maybe Esserdun mail? Barracks for Norfs? Norfs mail? He just nails Tauru to Norfs but who doesn't?

McGowan does have some skinny on who goes where but it's not his strong point (see that?). Interesting read but.

 

[Dyer'ere]

The AFL draft is just weeks away. Here’s where the top-40 prospects could land​

Marc McGowan November 1, 2024 — 12.11pm

The AFL draft is just weeks away. Here’s where the top-40 prospects could land

The draft is rapidly approaching and the 2024 class has recruiters salivating over its depth of talent and variety. We rank the top-40 players.

www.theage.com.au

The AFL draft is less than three weeks away, and the 2024 class has recruiters excited with its depth of talent and variety, after originally being all about midfielders.

We have spoken to recruiters at 14 of the 18 clubs to get the lowdown on this year’s top 40 prospects and which clubs they might end up at. Father-son and academy bids will alter the order and that has been factored into our phantom draft.

Our rankings in August were based on a consensus across AFL club recruiters who spoke to this masthead, whereas the October edition began to place prospects – particularly in the top 10 – according to which clubs were likely to select them. That is also the process for these latest rankings.

 

[Leysy Days]

How early would we have to pick Jonty Faull to be sure to get him?
I’ve watched quite a few videos and he looks a very likely type to me. He has the sort of frame that I could see filling out to be a Lynch type replacement.

Agree he's a very good prospect. After The Viking possibly the next best tall alongside the Whitlocks.

He's not like Tom Lynch though. Doesn't have his height (Faull is 195) and reach. Is better on the ground though - Mihocek is his closest type ILO.

He will end up a strong boy like you say.

 

[Dyer'ere]

1. Sam Lalor (Richmond)​

GWV Rebels/Vic Country
Midfielder/forward, 188cm, 30/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23 disposals, 6.3 clearances, 6 inside 50s
The Age’s August top 30: 5 October top 30: 1
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A
There is only one Dustin Martin, but the Tigers could anoint a teenager with many of the same characteristics as the triple Norm Smith medallist with this year’s No.1 pick. Recruiting sources believe Richmond are deciding between Lalor and Finn O’Sullivan, with Jagga Smith another possibility. Lalor, who was also a talented cricketer before focusing on football, was unable to put his best foot forward in 2024 because of a series of injuries, but the consensus is he will thrive, and improve his running, once he is in an AFL system. He is powerful, skilful, tough, equally impactful as a midfielder and forward, and overflowing with tantalising upside.

2. Levi Ashcroft (Brisbane Lions match North Melbourne’s bid)​

Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 179cm, 18/12/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 30.8 disposals, 5.3 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 2 October top 30: 2
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A

3. Alix Tauru (North Melbourne)​

Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Tall defender, 193cm, 16/11/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.5 disposals, 3.7 intercept marks, 7.3 intercept possessions
The Age’s August top 30: 19 October top 30: 3
Agility test: 8.196 seconds 20m sprint: 3 seconds 2km time trial: 6:36 minutes

This will be the draft-shaping selection. O’Sullivan, Sid Draper or Jagga Smith could go here instead, but Tauru is a wonderful fit for the Roos, who have spoken with other clubs about trading down. There is a perception that selecting the intercept defender would be a considerable reach, but he will almost certainly be snapped up in the top 10 regardless of what North decide. There is risk involved in picking Tauru, particularly this high, given his game sense is still raw, but there is genuine star quality here. He shows great courage in the way he aggressively flies for marks, and is an excellent athlete, including winning the running vertical jump at the combine.

4. Finn O’Sullivan (Carlton)​

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 182cm, 30/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 17.3 disposals, 5.3 inside 50s, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 3 October top 30: 7
Agility test: 8.14 secs 20m sprint: 2.99 secs 2km time trial: 6:28 mins
It would be tough for the Blues not to draft O’Sullivan here, but Sid Draper and possibly Jagga Smith are other options. O’Sullivan – who some argue is the most talented player in this year’s class – could even be the No.1 pick, so may not be available. He is a strong runner, skilful, a very good decision-maker and athlete, marks the ball well, and is not a huge ball-winner but regularly kicks goals, which recruiters love from midfielders. Similarly to Lalor, injuries curbed O’Sullivan’s impact in his draft year and left some question marks, but he was the best player at the under-16 carnival two years ago and an under-18 All-Australian in his bottom-age season in 2023.

5. Harvey Langford (Adelaide)​

Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country
Midfielder, 191cm, 15/3/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.9 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 11 October top 30: 5
Agility test: 8.642 secs 20m sprint: 3.24 secs 2km time trial: 6:24 mins
Langford is one of the biggest risers from the start of the season, and shared the Larke Medal with Leo Lombard as the two most outstanding players at this year’s under-18 championships. That honour was the highlight of a consistently dominant year for a player who put the Stingrays on his back at times. Langford is tall for an onballer and that gives him an edge when he pushes forward, where his marking strength is another tick. His toughness and relentless running help him win a stack of the Sherrin, and talent scouts are mostly willing to overlook his lack of leg speed and the odd bad kicking decision. The Crows could opt for local boy Sid Draper.

The industry consensus is that North Melbourne or Carlton, rather than Richmond, will bid on Ashcroft, who some recruiters rate as the best-performed player this year. Whatever eventuates, the young gun onballer will join his Norm Smith Medal-winning brother Will at the Lions and help continue his father Marcus’ legacy at the reigning premiers. Ashcroft, who did not test at the combine because of shoulder surgery, is a dual under-18 All-Australian and already well known for his ultra professionalism and expert midfield craft. He will likely have to start his AFL career more at half-forward, but he has the confidence and ability to make his mark quickly.

6. Jagga Smith (Melbourne)​

Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 182cm, 28/1/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 33.8 disposals, 13.9 contested possessions, 7.9 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 1 October top 30: 4
Agility test: 8.484 secs 20m sprint: 3.038 secs 2km time trial: 6:27 mins

Smith is a lightly framed midfield marvel who is an expert ball-winner with quick feet and rare agility that he uses to escape tight spots. He gathered an incredible 50 disposals and 24 contested possessions against Western Jets in a game this season, and is renowned for almost always hitting his target, particularly by hand. Smith has performed against boys and men, and recruiters were pleased to see him kick more goals and be more damaging with his disposals towards the end of the season. He is the safest pick in the draft, but recruiters believe his ceiling as a player is lower than some peers. If it’s not Smith here, the Demons may take Sid Draper instead.

7. Josh Smillie (Richmond)​

Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 195cm, 17/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.5 disposals, 11.3 contested possessions, 4.8 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 4 October top 30: 8
Agility test: 8.391 secs 20m sprint: 3.09 secs 2km time trial: 6:38 mins

Smillie was once a pick one contender, but an up-and-down season left him a polarising prospect. His physical traits and playing style as a midfielder provoke comparisons to Carlton’s dual Brownlow medallist Patrick Cripps. Smillie’s admirers rave about his stoppage work and how he can hang tough in a tackle before finding a teammate by hand, while he has also proven he can step up in crunch moments. Tigers list manager Blair Hartley and performance boss Tim Livingstone both have links to Smillie’s junior club Park Orchards. Whether that connection is being overblown will soon be known. Richmond could take a key forward here instead.