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2022 - March to the finals
- Thread starter Tigerfan
- Start date
Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022?
The Run Home: Where every AFL club will finish on the ladder, and who’ll play finals
Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 20th, 2022
6. RICHMOND (8-5, 117.8%)
Remaining games
Round 15: Geelong Cats at the MCG
Round 16: West Coast Eagles at the MCG
Round 17: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium
Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 79%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-easiest
Here come the Tigers, with six wins from their last seven games, and every chance they’ll make that nine from 11 at the very least.
With six games left against bottom 10 sides, it’d be a surprise if Damien Hardwick’s men didn’t reach that 13-win mark that looks like the minimum to play finals in 2022.
Really, they could be dreaming of a top-four berth, as they get Geelong, Fremantle and Brisbane all in Melbourne making those games quite a bit easier.
A 15-win season is within reach, if the Tigers continue to play at their recent level. And in particular if they beat Geelong, that’s likely to be enough for the double chance.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.35 projected wins, finishing 7th
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Brisbane Lions (15.45 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (15.05)
3. Fremantle (15)
4. Geelong Cats (14.7)
5. Carlton (13.6)
6. Sydney Swans (13.5)
7. Richmond (13.35)
8. Collingwood (12.7)
---------------------------
9. St Kilda (12.65)
10. Western Bulldogs (11.9)
11. Gold Coast Suns (11.85)
12. Port Adelaide (10.55)
13. Hawthorn (8.3)
14. Adelaide Crows (8 )
15. GWS Giants (7.8 )
16. Essendon (6.85)
17. North Melbourne (3.4)
18. West Coast Eagles (3.25)
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats at the Gabba
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Richmond at the SCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Fremantle at the MCG
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...e/news-story/da52e00eaee61d1bff6d3ccab331ec94
If this evetuates, i reckon we beat sydney in sydney. Then probably play Freo in Perth. Beat Freo, then its likely Brisbane in Brisbane.
but right now i would probably expect to finish higher than 7th.
should be a tight and tough entertaining contest between two evenly matched teams at the peak of their powers
Champion Data is full of *smile*. Scumwood has got the easiest draw of anyone. If they can't make the finals from here they should just fold.
Notwithstanding the De Goey distraction their next 4 games are GSW (MCG) GC away, Lolnorf and Crows away. They will start favourites in all of them and even if they go 3-1 they'll be 11-6 with 5 games to play.
They set their season up with wins over Freo, Carlton and Melbourne.
Champion NFI.
A joke on a good day. One champion potato actually got a job - Luff. And he will soon have definitively quantified his uselessness.
Good to see that Norfs are ready to shake off the burden of low altitude flyers like Bottomless Data.
LOL Champion. *smile* LOL their LOLLING mother spooning LOL.
A joke on a good day. One champion potato actually got a job - Luff. And he will soon have definitively quantified his uselessness.
Good to see that Norfs are ready to shake off the burden of low altitude flyers like Bottomless Data.
LOL Champion. *smile* LOL their LOLLING mother spooning LOL.
We're a very good side this year but I fear things will conspire against us.
There's no benefit whatsoever for the AFL to see another Richmond Premiership.
Top 4 looks a bit less likely after yesterday's narrow loss. Even making the 8 is not a certainty.
Proud of yesterday's efforts but Flags are so hard to achieve. Just keep winning Tiges.
There's no benefit whatsoever for the AFL to see another Richmond Premiership.
Top 4 looks a bit less likely after yesterday's narrow loss. Even making the 8 is not a certainty.
Proud of yesterday's efforts but Flags are so hard to achieve. Just keep winning Tiges.
We can't get the rub of the green on own deck where not going to get it playing a final interstate.
We apprantly had a full preseason buy still come into the season half a sleep.
You don't lose to stkilda when your 25 up in the 3rd. And I don't care where you play Adelaide, you don't drop 4ptrs to that SANFL reserves side.
We have left our run too late. And now the umpires are back dismantling us.
Playing Freo Sydney or Brisbane interstate will be a bridge too far.
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Well we nearly knocked off the cats without Cotchin lambert and Prestia.
this week proves we don’t have to be worried about visits from brisbane and freo visit.
Next week It’s West Coast and we need to get a % boost.
this week proves we don’t have to be worried about visits from brisbane and freo visit.
Next week It’s West Coast and we need to get a % boost.
Let's assume we beat the coasters, North, bombers and hawks (If we don't we don't deserve to play finals) . That's 12 wins which won't make finals
I would fancy us against both Freo and Brisbane in Melbourne on current form and we would be a good chance against the suns and Port .
14-15 wins and we play finals (probably not top 4 even with 15), 13 will be line ball and based on percentage. 16 will be top 4.
It is in our hands
We can beat anyone but can we do it for 8 weeks?
I reckon there isn't a team in the top 8 who would fancy playing us in September, Melbourne included
I would fancy us against both Freo and Brisbane in Melbourne on current form and we would be a good chance against the suns and Port .
14-15 wins and we play finals (probably not top 4 even with 15), 13 will be line ball and based on percentage. 16 will be top 4.
It is in our hands
We can beat anyone but can we do it for 8 weeks?
I reckon there isn't a team in the top 8 who would fancy playing us in September, Melbourne included
So we have 8 wins and 3 to come v bottom 6 at the MCG = 11.
Add in North at Marvel for 12.
Bris (MCG) can’t travel = 13.
Also: freo (marvel) port (away) Suns (away) as bonus games.
I can't see how we can win all 8 games and make top 4. We are just losing too many games we should win this year; we have no margin for error.
At our best we can do it but we are not going to be at our best every game. Our best players are older and we are bound to get more injuries. Top 4 is a bridge too far this year. Whilst we should obviously aim for it I think we need to bank enough wins to shore up 5th or 6th and a home final and set ourselves from there. We just can not afford to drop any more games from winnable positions; that is now 5 this year. Fair dinkum we should be firmly planted in top 2 right now not hanging desperately to a spot in the 8. We also need to smash the weaker teams when we play them as in a close season percentage will be extremely important. We've never really grasped the percentage concept; we need to as of now.
I went in to yesterday's game thinking Geelong were one of the best sides in it (unfortunately) and that this was our toughest game for the rest of the year. Oddly enough, despite losing I have come away thinking we are in it up to our eyeballs (if the injury Gods look after us) and Geelong are not as good as I thought.
We should win the next three - I don't care how good a season Gold Coast are having, we should beat them, even away.
Freo and Brisbane will both be tough but are both in Melbourne.
Port away will be a challenge ... but between now and then, they play Freo, GWS, Melbourne, Geelong and Collingwood, so with any luck they will have the queue in the rack by then.
Then the last two should not be a problem.
Also an unusually healthy percentage might help.
We should be shooting for fourth and for Melbourne to finish first. Ideal scenario.
We should win the next three - I don't care how good a season Gold Coast are having, we should beat them, even away.
Freo and Brisbane will both be tough but are both in Melbourne.
Port away will be a challenge ... but between now and then, they play Freo, GWS, Melbourne, Geelong and Collingwood, so with any luck they will have the queue in the rack by then.
Then the last two should not be a problem.
Also an unusually healthy percentage might help.
We should be shooting for fourth and for Melbourne to finish first. Ideal scenario.
I reckon worst case for the tigers is 11 wins. The 4 wins we should get are
15. WCE. MCG
17 Nth. MVL
21. Haw. MCG
22. Ess. MCG
That means we need to get another 2 wins from the following if we need 13 to make finals
13. Carl. MCG
14. Geel. MCG. X
16. Suns. GC
18. Freo. MVL
19. Lions. MCG
20. Port. AO
None of these games will be easy to win, if we can’t get the job done at least twice, we will know that this era is over. At this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if we won 4 of them or none of.
Update: Well we won 1 from the hard basket and lost 1, still only 1 more to go from that group. This week its time to collect the 4 pts from one of the must win games.
15. WCE. MCG
17 Nth. MVL
21. Haw. MCG
22. Ess. MCG
That means we need to get another 2 wins from the following if we need 13 to make finals
13. Carl. MCG
14. Geel. MCG. X
16. Suns. GC
18. Freo. MVL
19. Lions. MCG
20. Port. AO
None of these games will be easy to win, if we can’t get the job done at least twice, we will know that this era is over. At this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if we won 4 of them or none of.
Update: Well we won 1 from the hard basket and lost 1, still only 1 more to go from that group. This week its time to collect the 4 pts from one of the must win games.
Agree, last night's loss was heart breaking, not least because Geelong's thuggery and the woeful umpiring contributed, but the competitiveness against a genuinely good team, especially given we lost Prestia, had a few out and Martin is not in his best form, was a very good sign.
DS
