My bad. doesn't really make any difference to the analysis or conclusion though. Slightly improves the strike rate if anything.
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2022 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoop
- Start date
The cobra strikes again.so back to this, to benchmark us:
2011 B Ellis pick 15
2012 Vlastuin pick 9
2013 Lennon pick 12
2014 C Ellis pick 12
2015 Rioli pick 15
2016 No first round pick, traded for Prestia (Bolton pick 29)
2017 CCJ pick 20
2018 RCD pick 20
2019 Dow pick 21
2020 No first round pick, traded for Geelong future
2021 Gibcus pick 8
So on our recruiting record, objectively. We've had 3 top 10 picks in 10 years, (importantly, none in the top 5), we took 2, which I'd say we nailed. The data says you nail 1 out of 3 (28% chance of 200 gamer). We've nailed 2 out of 2, or 3 out of 3, depending on how you want to look at it. We have beaten the odds convincingly with Vlastuin and gibcus, and got Prestia into the bargain, (and I won't mention Bolton because I know you love your arbitrary pick 18 cuttoff
So of the remaining 11-20 pick bracket, 2 outright, unequivocal busts, and I'll give you RCD. I reckon CCJ is a bust too as a player, but we got our money back on him so he wasn't a complete bust for us, neutral. I'll put the future trade as neutral too, but I feel good about it. Dow hard to assess, for balance I'll call him a win, but its debateable.
So sample of 6, Lennon, C Ellis, RCD crosses. B. Ellis, Rioli, Dow Ticks.
50% strike rate, The numbers set the benchmark at 48% chance of 100 gamer, 27% 200 gamer. I'd argue we've beaten the odds comfortably. The cherry on top, for me, was the Geelong future trade.
So you say our first round drafting has been a disaster, the numbers don't lie, and say the opposite. Depending on how you get into the nitty gritty and how harsh want to be, objectively, we've been solid at worst, and pretty damn good at best.
Great analysis. Heaps of variables but provides a strong base to work from.
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I think you're correct re taking out the 1990s figures. Scouting has gotten a lot better, there aren't many out and out busts in the top 10 anymore. If there are, it's down to injury, not the JON's of the world who just should not have been picked as high as they were.
Probably another benefit of being able to package a heap of later picks to match other clubs bids on f/s and academy kids.
The strike rate of those latter picks then being able to turn them into an early pick.
Actually the next 4 picks were Caddy, Heppell, Prestia and Gorringe. The pick before him was Jared Polec. A few picks before was Harley Bennell.
I reckon Conca was the 7th best pick in the top 10 that year. (putting him behind Sam Day which could be debated.)
Argument could be made that from the top 20 picks, he had the 10th best career
In no order
Isaac Smith
Prestia
Tom Lynch
Gaff
Swallow
Brodie Smith
Atley
Heppell
Caddy
Then a choice between Conca, Sam Day and Polec.
SA under 18 squad.....Some decent talent there,some talls expected to go first round...
THE South Australian National Football League (SANFL) has today released the 2022 South Australian Under 18 squad, set to compete in this year’s National Championships across June and July. The 40-player crop is packed with key position talent, with a whopping 17 players measuring up at over 190cm.
>> SCROLL to see the full squad
Among them are West Adelaide giants Harry Lemmey, Tom Scully and Harry Barnett. A top pick contender, Lemmey has plied his trade at the League and Reserves levels this season, while Scully’s Under 18 goalkicking feats have seen him rocket up draft boards, and Barnett’s Round 7 performance proved a breakout effort.
The trio counts towards Westies’ seven squad members, which includes prolific midfielder Kobe Ryan, who recently made his senior debut. Unsurprisingly, North Adelaide’s undefeated Under 18s side contributed the most players of any club, with eight in line to earn representative honours in the famous tri-colour jersey.
There is some AFL club-tied talent on offer across South Australia’s squad, headlined by Adelaide father-son candidate Max Michalanney. The 192cm defender from Norwood is set to be a key figure for his state. Crows fans will also recognise the name Isaac Keeler, with the talented ruck-forward an exciting watch out of their Next Generation Academy (NGA).
The likes of Mattaes Phillipou and Luca Slade also lay claim to names synonymous with SANFL fans, and the latter is one of 10 bottom-aged (2005-born) talents to have earned selection. There are a few potential early picks among them, namely Glenelg utility Ashton Moir, South Adelaide forward Jack Delean, and West Adelaide defender Will Patton.
Along with Phillipou, Lemmey, Ryan, and Michalanney, Sturt midfielder Nick Sadler has climbed his way up the grades in 2022, as has strongly built Woodville-West Torrens ball winner Adam D’Aloia. The Eagles prospect has already impressed at the level, tasked with a prominent midfield role in last year’s Under 19 lineup.
Coming together to train on May 16 (next Monday), the squad’s first assignment at this year’s championships is a clash with the Allies at Thebarton Oval on June 19. Matches against Vic Country (June 26), Vic Metro (July 17), and Western Australia (July 24) will follow, with the Metro meeting looming as South Australia’s sole interstate fixture.
THE South Australian National Football League (SANFL) has today released the 2022 South Australian Under 18 squad, set to compete in this year’s National Championships across June and July. The 40-player crop is packed with key position talent, with a whopping 17 players measuring up at over 190cm.
>> SCROLL to see the full squad
Among them are West Adelaide giants Harry Lemmey, Tom Scully and Harry Barnett. A top pick contender, Lemmey has plied his trade at the League and Reserves levels this season, while Scully’s Under 18 goalkicking feats have seen him rocket up draft boards, and Barnett’s Round 7 performance proved a breakout effort.
The trio counts towards Westies’ seven squad members, which includes prolific midfielder Kobe Ryan, who recently made his senior debut. Unsurprisingly, North Adelaide’s undefeated Under 18s side contributed the most players of any club, with eight in line to earn representative honours in the famous tri-colour jersey.
There is some AFL club-tied talent on offer across South Australia’s squad, headlined by Adelaide father-son candidate Max Michalanney. The 192cm defender from Norwood is set to be a key figure for his state. Crows fans will also recognise the name Isaac Keeler, with the talented ruck-forward an exciting watch out of their Next Generation Academy (NGA).
The likes of Mattaes Phillipou and Luca Slade also lay claim to names synonymous with SANFL fans, and the latter is one of 10 bottom-aged (2005-born) talents to have earned selection. There are a few potential early picks among them, namely Glenelg utility Ashton Moir, South Adelaide forward Jack Delean, and West Adelaide defender Will Patton.
Along with Phillipou, Lemmey, Ryan, and Michalanney, Sturt midfielder Nick Sadler has climbed his way up the grades in 2022, as has strongly built Woodville-West Torrens ball winner Adam D’Aloia. The Eagles prospect has already impressed at the level, tasked with a prominent midfield role in last year’s Under 19 lineup.
Coming together to train on May 16 (next Monday), the squad’s first assignment at this year’s championships is a clash with the Allies at Thebarton Oval on June 19. Matches against Vic Country (June 26), Vic Metro (July 17), and Western Australia (July 24) will follow, with the Metro meeting looming as South Australia’s sole interstate fixture.
2022 SOUTH AUSTRALIA UNDER 18 SQUAD
| PLAYER | SANFL CLUB | DATE OF BIRTH | HEIGHT (CM) | WEIGHT (KG) |
| Adam Deakin | Central | 16/8/04 | 191 | 87 |
| Jayden Matz | Central | 23/4/05 | 196 | 82 |
| Trent Tattoli | Central | 14/4/05 | 179 | 67 |
| Brodie Tuck | Central | 6/12/04 | 194 | 91 |
| Archie Lovelock | Glenelg | 19/12/04 | 178 | 72 |
| Ashton Moir | Glenelg | 15/4/05 | 186 | 77 |
| Ben Ridgway | Glenelg | 12/1/05 | 181 | 78 |
| Jakob Ryan | Glenelg | 20/9/04 | 189 | 77 |
| Jake Walker | Glenelg | 17/7/04 | 183 | 80 |
| Max Blacker | North | 14/7/04 | 170 | 63 |
| Billy Dowling | North | 1/7/04 | 187 | 79 |
| Isaac Keeler | North | 23/4/04 | 198 | 88 |
| Shaun Bennier | North | 24/2/04 | 193 | 90 |
| Luke Harvey | North | 22/2/05 | 181 | 76 |
| Jack Hodges | North | 17/3/04 | 192 | 81 |
| Kane McAuliffe | North | 1/3/05 | 187 | 90 |
| Kelsey Rypstra | North | 2/5/04 | 172 | 57 |
| Phoenix Foster | Norwood | 12/9/04 | 196 | 85 |
| Max Michalanney | Norwood | 26/2/04 | 192 | 78 |
| Harvey Pedler | Norwood | 16/10/04 | 186 | 82 |
| Tyson Walls | Norwood | 5/3/04 | 171 | 72 |
| Jack Delean | South | 15/4/05 | 181 | 73 |
| Charlie Duncan | South | 12/1/04 | 185 | 70 |
| Will Verrall | South | 11/3/04 | 199 | 92 |
| Jaiden Magor | South | 16/2/04 | 185 | 79 |
| Kyle Marshall | South | 10/4/04 | 198 | 79 |
| Nick Sadler | Sturt | 8/1/04 | 179 | 73 |
| Alex Holt | Sturt | 28/1/05 | 180 | 73 |
| Luca Slade | Sturt | 3/11/05 | 180 | 69 |
| Harry Barnett | West | 22/1/04 | 202 | 92 |
| Will Patton | West | 4/1/05 | 191 | 74 |
| Kobe Ryan | West | 17/2/04 | 182 | 72 |
| Oscar Kregar | West | 1/7/04 | 190 | 79 |
| Harry Lemmey | West | 30/1/04 | 199 | 94 |
| Darcy Minchella | West | 7/8/04 | 196 | 75 |
| Thomas Scully | West | 2/11/04 | 202 | 89 |
| Nathan Barkla | Woodville-West Torrens | 30/3/04 | 186 | 74 |
| Adam D’Aloia | Woodville-West Torrens | 9/4/04 | 186 | 86 |
| Blake Hansen | Woodville-West Torrens | 8/4/04 | 178 | 71 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | Woodville-West Torrens | 27/12/04 | 190 | 83 |
no mate. But keep trying to sh!!can Richmond about a draft pick from 10 years ago that played 150 games, and we've won 3 flags in the meantime.
Seriously keep it up
18, 19 (north), 36. That's before any priority or compo picks.
Yeah nah whatever. Keep trying to b1tch and moan. The best thing about Richmond's draft strategy is the results- 3 flags.
Happy days
I watched a replay of the Vic Country /Young Guns match ,,Young Guns won by 5 goals but Country didn't have a full strength side that will play the champs.
The Top age Young Guns looked bigger and stronger in most areas ,and personally l was more interested in how the Country side went.
From the Top age Jed Rule 191cm 80kg from oakleigh impressed me ,he's more a defender or a forward ,his kicking is very good on either side and takes a good mark ,he seems to have a bit of football nous about him ,,people keep talking about replacing mids,and kp's ,but he might be one worth looking at for later rounds as a Grimes replacement,along with Tassies Tom Macallum .
The other top age player l liked was Faulkhead ,yes the the player with the silent L he was good he is a 179cm mid ,he get's around the ground really well, has a decent inside/out game and gets distance with some of jis kicks,and they are quite accurate. he has a bit of quality about him
I don't normally care much for top age player's ,l think they should be playing in the VFL,but this year's different with so many of them playing .
From the Country side Jhye Clark was very good in the mid field ,l think he is a first rounder and another l have mentioned before Hugh Bond was very good ,his work rate is great ,he has decent skills nothing really outstanding ,but his running around the ground and getting involved in most contests is way above average ,he obviously has excellent endurance .
Another l have mentioned Aaron Cadman a 194 cm kp,keep impressing as a forward his lead up work is really good and his ground work is good too,l think this boy could kick a few bags if he wasnt so unselfish ,he looks to have a Afl future.
I can;t wait for the champs ,it will sort a few things out ,lm hoping WA/SA have a bit of depth this year ,because lm just wondering how much the Top Age player's in Vic are making the depth look better .
The Top age Young Guns looked bigger and stronger in most areas ,and personally l was more interested in how the Country side went.
From the Top age Jed Rule 191cm 80kg from oakleigh impressed me ,he's more a defender or a forward ,his kicking is very good on either side and takes a good mark ,he seems to have a bit of football nous about him ,,people keep talking about replacing mids,and kp's ,but he might be one worth looking at for later rounds as a Grimes replacement,along with Tassies Tom Macallum .
The other top age player l liked was Faulkhead ,yes the the player with the silent L
he was good he is a 179cm mid ,he get's around the ground really well, has a decent inside/out game and gets distance with some of jis kicks,and they are quite accurate. he has a bit of quality about himI don't normally care much for top age player's ,l think they should be playing in the VFL,but this year's different with so many of them playing .
From the Country side Jhye Clark was very good in the mid field ,l think he is a first rounder and another l have mentioned before Hugh Bond was very good ,his work rate is great ,he has decent skills nothing really outstanding ,but his running around the ground and getting involved in most contests is way above average ,he obviously has excellent endurance .
Another l have mentioned Aaron Cadman a 194 cm kp,keep impressing as a forward his lead up work is really good and his ground work is good too,l think this boy could kick a few bags if he wasnt so unselfish ,he looks to have a Afl future.
I can;t wait for the champs ,it will sort a few things out ,lm hoping WA/SA have a bit of depth this year ,because lm just wondering how much the Top Age player's in Vic are making the depth look better .
Allies Squad for U19 National Champs
www.afl.com.au
Allies squad announced for 2022 NAB AFL National Championships – Boys U18
Forty-six players have been named in the Allies squad for the 2022 NAB AFL National Championships – Boys U18.
www.afl.com.au
Just sign the two Clarence kids. Richmond’s football factory.Allies Squad for U19 National Champs
Allies squad announced for 2022 NAB AFL National Championships – Boys U18
Forty-six players have been named in the Allies squad for the 2022 NAB AFL National Championships – Boys U18.
