That’s always the response Snakey but it wasn’t hindsight. No one had Conca that high besides us. A blind monkey like me knew Heppell was a better pick. Conca was a foot soldier at best but we should’ve got a general. Beyond dispute.
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2022 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Scoop
- Start date
a. but we wasn't a bust, not as good as heppell no doubt, but not a bust. Ellis, Lennon, busts. Dean Limbach, bust. Conca 150 games, not a bust.
b. It is 1 pick, cherry picked.
c. Nobody has responded to my point that there are examples that we can point to in our favour, Every other side would be saying on their forums, 'geez we are idiots for drafting player x, Shai Bolton went at pick 28, blind freddie, or monkey could see he was better'. A General for price of a footsoldier. Jack Riewoldt, in 06, only Selwood and Boak taken before him at 13 were any good. The hive mind thought we'd overreached on Rioli, we didn't, you win some you lose some, as long as you stay ahead of the opposition.
It is pointless focusing on single picks with no context, comparison or big picture analysis. It might be fun and make you feel good, I do it so I understand that, but as way to measure draft and team success, its pointless.
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What do 2nd rounders have to do with 1st round performance? It’s irrelevant
Compare our drafting performance in the 1st round to the best in the business Sydney, Melbourne, Dogs and Port. Our team is miles off the pace.
Good work trying to defend against the bleeding obvious though
Isn't the draft about getting good players? Yeah OK, Sydney, Melbourne, Dogs and Port are all way better than us. I'll take your word for it, I had no idea. What is bleeding obvious again?
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Yes. We won three premiships so I'll go out on a limb and say our recruiting has been okay when averaged out.
I don't know if anyone else went to the matches on sunday,but this is my opinion .
Brayden George a player l have mentioned before from Murray,he is a 1st rounder lock that in ,most likely top 10 ,at 185cm he's a very strong marking forward ,his kicking for distance and accuracy is very good ,he could go top 5 IF he could go into the midfield and play some really good football.
Aaron Cadman from the Rebels looks good ,strong marking and quite quick 194cm forward ,he should of kicked a few goals except for rushing a few kicks ,from the games l have seen of him ,he seems a decent kick and his ground level game is good ,probably a second rounder at the moment ,but a lot will depend on the champs .
Hugh Bond 184 cm 81kg ,he really impressed me ,great work ethic,inside the stoppages and outside,kept linking up ,putting pressure on,doing the 1percent things and tackling etc ,he should be in the Vic Country side ,will be worth watching how he goes.
Another l have mentioned before Jhye Clark 181cm from the falcons ,he had a really good game,he's more a inside mid,but does have a outside game,he reads the play around stoppages really well,his work rate is really good,his is quite strong overhead for his height and his kicking is good ,,he is a 1st rounder at this stage you would probably rate him a later 1st round pick,but a good champs will elevate that ,,,he is a good player.
Jason Gilbee from Bendigo 190cm 78kg ,he normally plays midfield ,but they tossed him around a bit,he was very good up forward when playing there,he's good overhead ,kicking is decent ,very strong at ground level ,they then moved him down back and again he was strong in all areas l have already mentioned .
Im guessing the Vic Country selectors were at the matches ,and wanting to try a few different things,,Gilbee is normally a good inside mid,who probably needs to develop a outside game.
Special mention to bottom age Zane Duursma ,he looks top 5 for next year already very good player.
Theirs a few more l could mention but don't have the time, quite a few that come under the top age bracket played well,,Noah Bradshaw l would of mentioned more about,but turns 20 in Jan next year ,why is he playing nab cup,he should be playing vfl .
The recruiters are going to have a interesting time working through so many top agers this year .
Brayden George a player l have mentioned before from Murray,he is a 1st rounder lock that in ,most likely top 10 ,at 185cm he's a very strong marking forward ,his kicking for distance and accuracy is very good ,he could go top 5 IF he could go into the midfield and play some really good football.
Aaron Cadman from the Rebels looks good ,strong marking and quite quick 194cm forward ,he should of kicked a few goals except for rushing a few kicks ,from the games l have seen of him ,he seems a decent kick and his ground level game is good ,probably a second rounder at the moment ,but a lot will depend on the champs .
Hugh Bond 184 cm 81kg ,he really impressed me ,great work ethic,inside the stoppages and outside,kept linking up ,putting pressure on,doing the 1percent things and tackling etc ,he should be in the Vic Country side ,will be worth watching how he goes.
Another l have mentioned before Jhye Clark 181cm from the falcons ,he had a really good game,he's more a inside mid,but does have a outside game,he reads the play around stoppages really well,his work rate is really good,his is quite strong overhead for his height and his kicking is good ,,he is a 1st rounder at this stage you would probably rate him a later 1st round pick,but a good champs will elevate that ,,,he is a good player.
Jason Gilbee from Bendigo 190cm 78kg ,he normally plays midfield ,but they tossed him around a bit,he was very good up forward when playing there,he's good overhead ,kicking is decent ,very strong at ground level ,they then moved him down back and again he was strong in all areas l have already mentioned .
Im guessing the Vic Country selectors were at the matches ,and wanting to try a few different things,,Gilbee is normally a good inside mid,who probably needs to develop a outside game.
Special mention to bottom age Zane Duursma ,he looks top 5 for next year already very good player.
Theirs a few more l could mention but don't have the time, quite a few that come under the top age bracket played well,,Noah Bradshaw l would of mentioned more about,but turns 20 in Jan next year ,why is he playing nab cup,he should be playing vfl .
The recruiters are going to have a interesting time working through so many top agers this year .
Yes it is and the first round picks give you the chance at securing the best players. It’s why clubs try to trade and swap their way into the first round.
It’s great that we got some good players later in the draft but imagine where we’d be if we nailed our first round picks as well.
For mine professional recruiters/list managers should be nailing the first round picks more often than not. I’d suggest a 70 to 80% success rate for the first round.
It doesn't matter what you'd suggest. All that matters is the numbers, the data. Here's what it says:
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
www.foxsports.com.au
In a nutshell, the odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:
Pick 1-2: 69 per cent
Pick 3-5: 38 per cent
Pick 6-10: 28 per cent
Pick 11-20: 27 per cent
Pick 21-30: 13 per cent
Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
Take GWS and GC out of the top 10 and rhe % is significantly higherIt doesn't matter what you'd suggest. All that matters is the numbers, the data. Here's what it says:
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
In a nutshell, the odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:
Pick 1-2: 69 per cent
Pick 3-5: 38 per cent
Pick 6-10: 28 per cent
Pick 11-20: 27 per cent
Pick 21-30: 13 per cent
Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
The overall success rate for the first round draft picks is no where near 70% to 80% so how can we expect our recruiters to consistently achieve that level??
It doesn't matter what you'd suggest. All that matters is the numbers, the data. Here's what it says:
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
In a nutshell, the odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:
Pick 1-2: 69 per cent
Pick 3-5: 38 per cent
Pick 6-10: 28 per cent
Pick 11-20: 27 per cent
Pick 21-30: 13 per cent
Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
Do you know the odds on getting to 100 games and 150 games?
These figures aren't perfect, but they do provide a useful guide. as I said I'd like to see post 2000 figures, 93 to 2000 was a raffle for most clubs, some were onto it early. Also clubs would be able to all sorts of number crunching, and obviously they would, including the one you suggest.
But the critical point is that its not about the vibe, its a numbers game.
The figures also show the huge variation of chance of success WITHIN round 1. Obviously the real money is top 2 and top 5. The odds drop away quickly after that. Oils ain't oils, round 1 ain't round 1, there are 3 clear brackets within round 1.So because we've been on top and had late picks, our benchmark would be the 12-20 bracket, roughly speaking.
I reckon its a very important point, the term Round One Pick implies a rolled gold banker, a Dusty, a Petracca, its a myth. Those bankable, game breaking, era-defining players are top 2 or top 5, more and more so as time goes on. When people say you have to nail your first round picks, they really mean you have to nail your top 5 or even 10 picks.
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Its in the article, they don't have 150 gamers, but here:
CHANCES OF DRAFTING A 100-GAMER (based on 1993-2008 drafts)
Pick 1: 100 per cent
Pick 2: 94 per cent
Pick 3-5: 71 per cent
Pick 6-10: 57 per cent
Pick 11-20: 48 per cent
Pick 21-30: 35 per cent
Pick 31-50: 33 per cent
so back to this, to benchmark us:
2011 B Ellis pick 15
2012 Vlastuin pick 9
2013 Lennon pick 12
2014 C Ellis pick 12
2015 Rioli pick 15
2016 No first round pick, traded for Prestia (Bolton pick 29
)2017 CCJ pick 20
2018 RCD pick 20
2019 Dow pick 21
2020 No first round pick, traded for Geelong future
2021 Gibcus pick 8
So on our recruiting record, objectively. We've had 3 top 10 picks in 10 years, (importantly, none in the top 5), we took 2, which I'd say we nailed. The data says you nail 1 out of 3 (28% chance of 200 gamer). We've nailed 2 out of 2, or 3 out of 3, depending on how you want to look at it. We have beaten the odds convincingly with Vlastuin and gibcus, and got Prestia into the bargain, (and I won't mention Bolton because I know you love your arbitrary pick 18 cuttoff
)So of the remaining 11-20 pick bracket, 2 outright, unequivocal busts, and I'll give you RCD. I reckon CCJ is a bust too as a player, but we got our money back on him so he wasn't a complete bust for us, neutral. I'll put the future trade as neutral too, but I feel good about Brown. Dow hard to assess, for balance I'll call him a win, but its debateable.
So sample of 6, Lennon, C Ellis, RCD crosses. B. Ellis, Rioli, Dow Ticks.
50% strike rate, The numbers set the benchmark at 48% chance of 100 gamer, 27% 200 gamer. I'd argue we've beaten the odds comfortably. The cherry on top, for me, was the Geelong future trade.
So you say our first round drafting has been a disaster, the numbers don't lie, and say the opposite. Depending on how you get into the nitty gritty and how harsh want to be, objectively, we've been solid at worst, and pretty damn good at best.
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It doesn't matter what you'd suggest. All that matters is the numbers, the data. Here's what it says:
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
In a nutshell, the odds of drafting a 200 gamer, which is a fair proxy for a champion are, from the data:
Pick 1-2: 69 per cent
Pick 3-5: 38 per cent
Pick 6-10: 28 per cent
Pick 11-20: 27 per cent
Pick 21-30: 13 per cent
Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
There's some chicken or egg about these numbers.
Top picks play more games because they're also more talented, but because they get more opportunities. Just natural that most teams give more chances to high picks / those guys get more of a chance to succeed over rookie listed players. But generally speaking, if you want better players you need to be drafting at the top end of the draft and not solely relying on finding diamonds in the rough. Our list composition during 2017-2020 shows this.
all true. Cream still rises to the top, but you wonder if RCD would still be on the list if he was a third round pick. On the one hand the numbers are self evident and intuitive, but on the other hand its pretty stark difference between top 5 and 10-20. I'd love to see updated figures for up to 2021 and take out the 1990s, I'd expect strike rates to have improved, I'd be interested to see.
