You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!! | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!!

Carter

Tiger Legend
Nov 14, 2012
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The brutal reality is we need another Martin (Pick 3), Cotchin (Pick 2)

Plus a bullseye top 20 like Jack Riewoldt (Pick 13)

To get to our next flag.

Keep topping up, you say. Doesn’t work.

Forget about Geelong. They still had their Cotch, Dusty and Riewoldt (Selwood, Danger and Hawkins) firing last year. Plus, they had their Lynch (Cameron) in career best form.

Forget about Sydney. They annually set up to contend but don’t look close at the end of the day.

We need two top fives (hard to miss) and a bullseye top 20.

So we bottom out starting now.

Some posters who know far more about list management than I have been posting this for some time now. Bully, Scooper to name two.

Who’s our top end mid in the 18-23 age bracket? Sonsie. Will be a good player but he ain’t Cotch or Dusty.

Gibcus could be our next quarterback superhunk, so we have that.

No first rounder in 2023 hurts bad. We need to trade in, make some hard calls on established players.

Vlastuin, Broad, Short, Bolton, Lynch, Rioli, Baker.

Not all, but some. Anyone with currency.

Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.
 
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The brutal reality is we need another Martin (Pick 3), Cotchin (Pick 2)

Plus a bullseye top 20 like Jack Riewoldt (Pick 13)

To get to our next flag.

Keep topping up, you say. Doesn’t work.

Forget about Geelong. They still had their Cotch, Dusty and Riewoldt (Selwood, Danger and Hawkins) firing last year. Plus, they had their Lynch (Cameron) in career best form.

Forget about Sydney. They annually set up to contend but don’t look close at the end of the day.

We need two top fives (hard to miss) and a bullseye top 20.

So we bottom out starting now.

Some posters who know far more about list management than I have been posting this for some time now. Bully, Scooper to name two.

Who’s our top end mid in the 18-23 age bracket? Sonsie. Will be a good player but he ain’t Cotch or Dusty.

Gibcus could be our next quarterback superhunk, so we have that.

No first rounder in 2023 hurts bad. We need to trade in, make some hard calls on established players.

Vlastuin, Broad, Short, Bolton, Lynch, Rioli, Baker.

Not all, but some. Anyone with currency.

Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.
It appears the club is WAY ahead of you :).
 
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If we’re bottoming out
Why did we go for taranto and hopper and give away so many picks?
Dont think the club intends on bottoming out
 
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If we’re bottoming out
Why did we go for taranto and hopper and give away so many picks?
Dont think the club intends on bottoming out
Not going into this year, that is correct btoz.

I suspect objectives are changing

The nature of the biz is simply you are either contending or you’re harvesting picks to contend
 
The brutal reality is we need another Martin (Pick 3), Cotchin (Pick 2)

Plus a bullseye top 20 like Jack Riewoldt (Pick 13)

To get to our next flag.

Keep topping up, you say. Doesn’t work.

Forget about Geelong. They still had their Cotch, Dusty and Riewoldt (Selwood, Danger and Hawkins) firing last year. Plus, they had their Lynch (Cameron) in career best form.

Forget about Sydney. They annually set up to contend but don’t look close at the end of the day.

We need two top fives (hard to miss) and a bullseye top 20.

So we bottom out starting now.

Some posters who know far more about list management than I have been posting this for some time now. Bully, Scooper to name two.

Who’s our top end mid in the 18-23 age bracket? Sonsie. Will be a good player but he ain’t Cotch or Dusty.

Gibcus could be our next quarterback superhunk, so we have that.

No first rounder in 2023 hurts bad. We need to trade in, make some hard calls on established players.

Vlastuin, Broad, Short, Bolton, Lynch, Rioli, Baker.

Not all, but some. Anyone with currency.

Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.
Your getting zero for BigV, Broad.
Lynch won't go
Baker is a butcher but properly our best player
Bolton is worth easily a top 5 pick but would you get better in return I don't think so.
And Short Rioli & Graham
Won't get you a top 10 pick period. Adelaide got there captain for pick 18 Dawson.
Our players are always under valued.
 
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Not worth doing it this year as our picks are already gone. This makes no sense.

West Coast seemed to be masters twice of doing 1 or 2 seasons coming last and getting a top pick then being top 4 again for five years.

Speaking objectively which teams have bottomed out to get their flags recently

Geelong -> No (father son, cameron)
Melbourne -> Yes
Richmond * 3 -> Yes
WCE -> Not sure
Western Bulldogs -> their now retired FF yes .. but not sure where bont, libba (FS) etc. came - not that familiar with their list build
Hawthorn -> Yes

I think the evidence supports the strategy but it is a bitter pill to swallow. also no guarantees of course - you can just lock yourself in to years of misery

Who has bottomed out and where have they gone ... I think it tends to work when you already have a few 28-30 year olds that are pretty good as well. So almost two dips. The first one to get a couple and then the second one to get one or two more that are cheaper so you have two 23-24 year old guns and two 28-29 year old guns.

Not working

Suns

Works in progress - we will see

Carlton
NM
Hawthorn

Maybe / looks promising

Adelaide (already had a core)
Sydney (already had a core)
Collingwood (already had a core)
 
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Not worth doing it this year as our picks are already gone. This makes no sense.

West Coast seemed to be masters twice of doing 1 or 2 seasons coming last and getting a top pick then being top 4 again for five years.

Speaking objectively which teams have bottomed out to get their flags recently

Geelong -> No (father son, cameron)
Melbourne -> Yes
Richmond * 3 -> Yes
WCE -> Not sure
Western Bulldogs -> their now retired FF yes .. but not sure where bont, libba (FS) etc. came - not that familiar with their list build
Hawthorn -> Yes

I think the evidence supports the strategy but it is a bitter pill to swallow. also no guarantees of course - you can just lock yourself in to years of misery
If you mean Boyd at the Bulldogs that wasn’t as the result of bottoming out. He asked to be traded from GWS and they got Griffen and pick 6 in return.
 
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We should bottom out after round 5 lololol.

Maybe if we started winning some matches instead ,that might be a better solution.
 
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We should bottom out after round 5 lololol.

Maybe if we started winning some matches instead ,that might be a better solution.

Wins don’t really factor in this year as we don’t have a first round pick and we aren’t good enough to win the flag. Of course, wins are always good for cultural reasons.

Strange situation to be in.

As long as we pump games into the kids I’ll be happy.
 
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The brutal reality is we need another Martin (Pick 3), Cotchin (Pick 2)

Plus a bullseye top 20 like Jack Riewoldt (Pick 13)

To get to our next flag.

Keep topping up, you say. Doesn’t work.

Forget about Geelong. They still had their Cotch, Dusty and Riewoldt (Selwood, Danger and Hawkins) firing last year. Plus, they had their Lynch (Cameron) in career best form.

Forget about Sydney. They annually set up to contend but don’t look close at the end of the day.

We need two top fives (hard to miss) and a bullseye top 20.

So we bottom out starting now.

Some posters who know far more about list management than I have been posting this for some time now. Bully, Scooper to name two.

Who’s our top end mid in the 18-23 age bracket? Sonsie. Will be a good player but he ain’t Cotch or Dusty.

Gibcus could be our next quarterback superhunk, so we have that.

No first rounder in 2023 hurts bad. We need to trade in, make some hard calls on established players.

Vlastuin, Broad, Short, Bolton, Lynch, Rioli, Baker.

Not all, but some. Anyone with currency.

Bottom out and get those high picks. If we’re in it for flags, there’s no other way.
And be in the wilderness for the next 10 years - no thanks. Been there done that.

Bottoming out provides no guarrantees in winning flags. All it instills is a loser mentality, drop off in memberships etc and then all of a sudden you are are another North, St. Kilda, Carlton etc.
 
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And be in the wilderness for the next 10 years - no thanks. Been there done that.

Bottoming out provides no guarrantees in winning flags. All it instills is a loser mentality, drop off in memberships etc and then all of a sudden you are are another North, St. Kilda, Carlton etc.
Can’t win it without the next Cotchin Martin Riewoldt

Full stop
 
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Wins don’t really factor in this year as we don’t have a first round pick and we aren’t good enough to win the flag. Of course, wins are always good for cultural reasons.

Strange situation to be in.

As long as we pump games into the kids I’ll be happy.
I know all clubs get injuries ,but ours are important to us getting into the finals.
Lynch would of had a big night against the undersized Swans,that would of shifted the momentum our way.
I think the main area for us to improve is hitting more targets by foot,and getting some composure back .

The other thing l would like to see,is less bombing into the forward line,and player's working harder to get space.
 
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Can’t win it without the next Cotchin Martin Riewoldt

Full stop
No guarrantees you will find the next Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt. These players dont appear every drat year.

I would rather take our chances by utilising the draft, free agency, trading etc and stay competitive.
 
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sorry Aces but you can’t trade an Oliver or a Bontempelli in.

These five star guys are locked away.

And you can’t win flags without them.

There are some exceptions (Neale, Dangerfield, etc) but they are extremely rare.

We ain’t getting five star trades, we’re only getting the caliber of Taranto and Hopper. Good players but not the cream you need.

No, we need to draft the next superstars, no way we’re prising them from another club.
 
Depends on what you mean by bottom out

I am always of the view you try to win every game you play in. Culture dictates that, we are winners not losers and the difference between success and failure is smaller than it has ever been. Collingwood, Essendon and St Kilda are proving that.

If we are talking about list management that is a different issue. My view is that we try hard for a KPP free agent, which is our only choice to top up KPPs in the end unless we trade out long term contracted players.

2024 is the decision year. We need to find out whether the draftees of 2021 will make it or not by the end of that year and to do that we have to play them. If they are no good I think bottoming out will take care of itself and we will have higher picks by default. If we are not going to play finals in 2023 then those guys need to get a good run at it in the 2nd part of this season.

I can't see us doing a Mitchell at the Hawks
 
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Short memories around here. You don’t just bottom out for 3-4 years then suddenly rocket back up into the top 4 again, ready to win silverware for the next decade. It’s a long, painful process that more often than not ends in failure.

Look at Carlton, on their third(?) attempt in last 20 years. Essendon similar. North are 6 years into their 3 year rebuild, ditto Adelaide. Both expansion clubs have had more early picks than I can count and where are they now? Melbourne are an example of success as long as you ignore the fact they started their rebuild when we did back in 2009, failed and then had another crack in 2014 but this time with the helping hand of AFL HQ. Brisbane and Sydney? Sure, all we need is our own academy churning out s-tier talent every other year to supplement our draft picks.

Very easy to build a losing culture and very, very hard to build a winning one. I’d have thought we Richmond supporters would have known that better than most.
 
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