King Dud
He wouldn't know how to pick his nose let alone a kid that can run and kick.
He picks kids that can't kick or has the running capacity of Arthur Dunga
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We have no genuine talent coming through
- Thread starter thegdog
- Start date
He wouldn't know how to pick his nose let alone a kid that can run and kick.
He picks kids that can't kick or has the running capacity of Arthur Dunga
Well said. I have been saying similar for a while, a late first rounder and an early third rounder essentially have the same chance of making it. You can get an excellent breakdown of the probability if each draft picks success over at draftguru.com.auAgree with most of this, and the argument, but you're a bit off on your expected win rates 20-plus. Approx 15% chance of a 200 gamer and 35% of a 100 gamer after pick 21. This is old data, obviously it takes 5-10 years for it to come in, I've venture the odds for top 10 have wound-in a bit, and the odd for beyond say 30 have wound-out. To my eye the Adam Goodes at pick 50 or whatever he was-type picks are decreasing over time.
Agree 100% all the way baby that results have to be compared to be assessed. Some people just can't grasp this basic reality. Some people seem to think we're the only club that picks busts.
I keep posting this, and some people just keep ignoring it. I'd love to see an updated version, the data would be available for two or three more years now. (I'll leave the farce of matching early academy picks with a bunch of junk picks alone, but the article confirms what we all know on that).
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth
Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worthwww.foxsports.com.au
I’ll also throw the Clarke critics a bone. You only need to look at the number of rising star nominations we’ve had in recent years (or lack thereof) to see we have a problem of not enough good new talent coming through. Since 2019, we’ve only had two, Cumberland and Ralphsmith. How much of that is down to bad recruiting or the price of success is up for debate (and debate you all will) but the fact remains we need better kids.
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My issue is why so many of these kids have gone backwards in development questions need to be asked compared to last year ?.Cumberland , Miller , MRJ , Sonsie even Ross when we played him in the guts he looked better. I'm not buying it there is no talent , offcourse we could do with more but something not right.
That's a good wrap but don't tell me there isn't 50 kids every year that can run and kick.
picks just don't have to be in the ND but it's those preseason, midseason, rookie draft picks that make the difference.
Pick 40's don't get a pass because they were pick 40.
A kid selected pick 40 should be in the top 50 kids in the country. A kid that runs all day and can hit a target by foot.
*Lambert Rookie absolute star
*Bulter & Castagna Rookie
*preseason Pickett Stack
*Milocheck Johnson & Noble all rookie or preseason selections play in the best 22 team in the comp.
No more experiments.
If a kid is drafted as a defender we play him as defender
If a kid is drafted as a defender we play him as defender
We are not that bad!! we are transitioning out some absolute legends of the game and recruiting for need. Lynch, Prestia, Nank, Taranto, Hopper are some awesome recruits. this year we need to recruit a ready made Forward.
So how do you value if a pick 40+ is a good one. What do you want them to be? Stars of the comp, best 22, depth players? What ratios do you want them to hit to determine if their drafting is better, worse or on par with the average club recruiter?
This is data from draftguru.com.au. Picks 41 down to 65 and the average games played. You aren't recruiting many stars of the comp with these, the bulk of those picked at this level are bottom 6-8 of your best 22, squad depth or those that are delisted. We have done very well over a long period of time at this point in the draft (and into the rookies, MSD and pre-season drafts).
You are deliberately highlighting the few very good picks, but what proportion should we be expecting to be busts and how do we compare with the AFL average? I showed that on another post, that we had 12 picks 41+ (that includes rookie drafts) between 2017 and 2020. I would say 8 of them were good, which I would expect to be ahead of the AFL average - those being Baker, Miller, Ross, Aarts, Pickett, RalphSmith, Cumberland and MRJ. I would say out of that group we have 2 absolute best 22 (Baker and Pickett), Ross, MRJ, Miller, Cumberland and RalphSmith all sitting right in that bottom 6-8 of the 22 to depth, and Aarts was a good depth pick for a rookie pick.
GWS and Gold Coast had access to the elite talent of the competition for years......recruiting youth does not equate to success.
My main gripe is not even necessarily the player selected. It’s the type of player and the fact that we have had list needs and overlooked players that would have filled these obvious gaps in the list.
However we’ve also lost some players that would be handy to have right now. For example the forward line probably looks a lot more dangerous with Chol, Butler, Higgins and perhaps Stengle in it.
And we certainly haven’t had the relatively free father son or academy picks some other sides have received.
The other thing is development. We simply haven’t replaced our elite coaching talent with adequate replacements. We’ve been too hasty to promote from within when we should have been casting a wider net to fill those positions.
So I think it’s not that simple as saying the recruiting has been sub par. There are several factors at play here. I honestly think there’s a combination of factors that have led to these conclusions a lot of us are making.
However we’ve also lost some players that would be handy to have right now. For example the forward line probably looks a lot more dangerous with Chol, Butler, Higgins and perhaps Stengle in it.
And we certainly haven’t had the relatively free father son or academy picks some other sides have received.
The other thing is development. We simply haven’t replaced our elite coaching talent with adequate replacements. We’ve been too hasty to promote from within when we should have been casting a wider net to fill those positions.
So I think it’s not that simple as saying the recruiting has been sub par. There are several factors at play here. I honestly think there’s a combination of factors that have led to these conclusions a lot of us are making.
That's not a recruiting decision. They pick the kids, they don't coach em or play them on the field.
I can get data, not specific to all picks individually, but can get it in bands. Will post later.
like many here my hopes for Miller had steadily faded this year
not hard enough at the ball the biggest criticism
I only caught the last 10 minutes of the VFL
Miller gets the ball on the wing runs has a bounce was going to handball off when hitting the 50 mtr arc but pulled it back steadied and took the shot , goal , 2 pts up !
he took responsibility
? the next centre bounce , well under sized worked hard at the bounce and then pounced on the a player at ground level locked the ball up , wow
he sensed the occasion and acted like a hard nosed experienced player
its a small sample but I now see cause for hope that the switch has been flicked , more please
not hard enough at the ball the biggest criticism
I only caught the last 10 minutes of the VFL
Miller gets the ball on the wing runs has a bounce was going to handball off when hitting the 50 mtr arc but pulled it back steadied and took the shot , goal , 2 pts up !
he took responsibility
? the next centre bounce , well under sized worked hard at the bounce and then pounced on the a player at ground level locked the ball up , wow
he sensed the occasion and acted like a hard nosed experienced player
its a small sample but I now see cause for hope that the switch has been flicked , more please
Francis Jackson well above average, who wants to be average anyway. I think downplaying the draft and hiding behind numbers an easy way to canvass over some dubious decisions. Here's where it has gone wrong.
1. Picking a tweener ruck when Sam Taylor was ripe for the picking.
2. Overlooking Johnson who in the scheme of things would have addressed a glaring deficiency. (JVR ok by me too).
3. Picking up a swag of flankers who will all struggle to fit into the side at any given time.
4. Trading out quality small forwards and not replacing them with similarly talented players.
5. Deferring the decision to grab at least one KPF prospect just about every year. (Samson better suited onball in my opinion).
6. Trading out of the 2023 draft which leaves us in a pickle if say Himmelberg falls through, he's probably better suited in defence in any case.
7. Picking up players with questionable kicking skill, this is the complete opposite to Jackson who made it the number one priority most years.
Clarke has also had stacks of draft capital to play with, this was the gift Jackson left him but the cupboard is now bare. I'm quite staggered that AFL quality players like Higgins, Chol, Butler, Stengle & Markov have effectively been downgraded. Some testing times ahead & it will take some brilliance similar to the 2014 rookie draft to bring some balance back.
Who's downplaying the draft? Not sure why you always have to try and put words in others mouths to try and make your argument. No doubt you will think this is an attack again, but you constantly do this and it downgrades your arguments.
Hiding behind the numbers? The numbers are what they are, and they give you an insight into how many players are picked from what area of the draft, again thats not hiding, its using data to assess performance. Its how things are done in the real world, whether thats in football or any other industry. I do this day in day out in the industry I work in.
1 - No-on disagrees with this one. Our biggest failure of the draft over the last few years was the CCJ pick. The vast majority of the next 20 players picked in that draft are better than CCJ.
2 - I don't know how Johnson will be but I do tend to agree here. Its a bit tough as we don't know yet how good Brown could be, if he's a long term replacement for Vlastuin then we probably do well with the pick but the list balance questions are certainly a fair point.
3 - We picked 3 flankers that all play different positions (Brown, Banks and Clarke). Sonsie is a mid.
4 - I think we tried to replace them with talented players but are moving yourself forward in the draft every time. I don't hold the club to do much for trading them out, Stengle was leaving for a much better contract, same as Butler. We got boned by Higgins.
5 - I think this has clearly been a deficiency in the strategy, totally agree. Not bringing in quality talls (especially forward) is a tough one to take. Even last year everyone was expecting Lemmey to land on our list, maybe we didn't try to trade up, maybe we did but no one would play ball. We don't know for sure but that seemed an obvious one, and obviously the JVR pick also seemed obvious.
6 - This ones been discussed to death
7 - Yes and no. Go back tot he 2021 draft, everyone was praising us on here for picking up quality kicks of the footy in Gibcus, Brown, Banks and Sonsie in particular. Ryan is a nice kick of the footy from the 2020 draft.
We have had a bit of a pick vacuum and those few high end picks are certainly hurting us. No-one is denying that, the picks for CCJ, Dow and RCD in particular though the Dow and RCD ones were in weak drafts, but those were the picks we needed to nail and haven't leaving us in a bit of a vacuum because we just haven't had the picks and most likely pushed us further towards trading for Taranto and Hopper to try and protect us from that vacuum sending us to the Hawks and the Eagles type of predicaments. We are playing a bit of catchup but with Covid reducing squad sizes and limited draft picks, we've encountered a perfect storm.
Its nothing that 1 good draft / trade period couldn't fix though. Bring in Himmelberg (or there was talk at 1 point of Koschitske from the Hawks). I'd like us to have a go at Sam Flanders, reckon he's untapped and we could get him for a 2nd (particularly as GC need draft picks this year). We might need to get creative to get back into the draft along with those, but I don't think its panic stations and 10 years in the wilderness just yet.
Just on the flankers, it wasn't just the 2021 draft, we added yet more in 2022 when it was a great draft for talls, I felt it was an opportune time to stitch up another couple and get that production line going. Banks & Brown pretty similar, can't see them ousting Dan Rioli or Jayden Short, maybe they slot in on a wing but I reckon replacing Kamdyn could have been done with a lower pick (Teal a prime example). The problem Clarke now faces is he will no doubt use the rookie draft for guys like Bradtke & Buller and will probably come up empty handed unless a 35 goal forward like Mihocek falls into the lap. I think 2014 has taught us how to use the junk picks to full effect, it actually took Jackson several years to figure this out but the template for success is now apparent. In simple terms, state league plug and plays, an approach which allows quick decisions to be made eg. Lambert versus Marcon, small forwards where the success rate is highest, project rucks & half backs who seem to be the most plentiful resource. So far the Clarke era has been a classic case of mismanaging our draft capital & paying scant regard to scarcity with position types.
Most importantly there was improvement. The game before he got the ball in the same pos running into 50. Panicked and kicked wide.
