We have no genuine talent coming through

[thegdog]

3 flags - I’m content. But with our list at the moment the future looks like it will be years of bottom 4 finishes.
There are no Sheezel, Horne-Francis or Ashcroft, Daicos etc etc coming through.

A lot of supporters are desperately hoping some of our juniors will of a sudden be guns, when they don’t look like the will due to too many flaws and not enough elite talent.

All these players are long shots to be guns or propel us to premierships, not to say they don’t have some ability.

Dow- slow, poo kick
Ralphsmith - poor kick, timid
Cumberland - Unreliable, mentally fragile
Ryan - Ruckman arnt permanent full forwards. Ruck or bust. Defensively a witches hat
Gibscus- great white hope who whilst shows potential, was gifted games last year and didn’t show enough to say he was elite. Slow on the ground
MRJ - can’t get the pill
Millar - Slow, no aggression and no confidence. Not a genuine ruck and not a genuine back
Sonsie - has ability but slow, defensively poor.
Biggie - Never going to have the build or mental strength to compete at AFL level
Bauer/Bradtke/Colina - nope
Mansell - plodder who is someone who would have played 150 games in our dark years

Banks/Brown - jury’s out but nothing to suggest they are world beaters at this stage.

We’ll be horrendous without Lynch or Balta on the park giving us some sort of spine

 

[The_General]

This is another "day after a disappointing loss, all is doomed" threads.

You've named a series of pick 1/2, and bemoan our lack of one.

Surprisingly, we haven't had a pick 1 - 4 thanks to our dynasty. Taranto was a pick no 2 though, so although we couldn't drag one, we went and got one anyway.

What else do you think the club should do?

 

[thegdog]

This is another "day after a disappointing loss, all is doomed" threads.

You've named a series of pick 1/2, and bemoan our lack of one.

Surprisingly, we haven't had a pick 1 or 4 thanks to our dynasty. Taranto was a pick no 2 though, so although we couldn't drag one, we went and got one anyway.

What else do you think the club should do?

Like I said, I’ll die a content Tiger nut. Worth the impending hardship for the 3 flags. Need to find some diamonds in the rough again. Taranto and Hopper are going to be very very important in keeping us competitive and setting the culture.

Really think we need to overhaul our assistant coaches and possibly drafters. Not sure 2 x ex coaches with no hope of ever getting another senior gig are the way to go. Get some new up and comers. Just need a couple of our draftees to surprise. We definitely need to improve our speed/stamina all over the field.
Future staple team in 4/5years

Balta Baker Young Smith ?
Rioli Gibscus Short/Brown
Hopper Sonsie Banks Clarke
Forwards ?? Cumberland MRJ Campbell?
Sampson Tarranto Bolton Green Graham

- No designated full forward in our ranks at all. Lynch will be finished as will Himmelburg (is 27 now). There should’ve already been someone Jack could of been teaching the craft to. Best teacher ever

 

[DavidSSS]

I reckon our player development has dropped off too, as someone pointed out in another thread. We just seemed to be able to get players up to the level where they could contribute at AFL level when we were in our prime, not so much now.

Can't say I'm crazy about the way they keep moving the young players into so many different positions at the moment either.

DS

 

[King Kong]

We have to bone Matt Clarke - he has completely butchered our drafting since taking over from Jackson. We are already facing a sustained period in the wilderness thanks to his top 30 failures. If we wait another few years, then we'll be competing with Tassie for draft picks and pretty much stuffed.

 

[The_General]

We have to bone Matt Clarke - he has completely butchered our drafting since taking over from Jackson. We are already facing a sustained period in the wilderness thanks to his top 30 failures. If we wait another few years, then we'll be competing with Tassie for draft picks and pretty much stuffed.

I remember seeing exactly these same posts about Francis Jackson, then we won a premiership.
Please do some analysis on what picks we've missed and the average no of games by those players.

 

[King Kong]

I remember seeing exactly these same posts about Francis Jackson, then we won a premiership.
Please do some analysis on what picks we've missed and the average no of games by those players.

Higgins, CCJ, RCD, Dow, Ross, Brown, Sonsie, Clark and Banks are all either failures or have major decencies in their game. He has got 2 top 30 picks out of 11 right. Balta and Gibcus.

Then include the likes of Naish, Will Martyn and Ralphshit.

He is a dud.

 

[thegdog]

Am i right ?

Future staple team in 4/5years

Balta Baker Young Smith ?
Rioli Gibscus Short/Brown
Hopper Sonsie Banks Clarke
Forwards ?? Cumberland MRJ Campbell?
Sampson Tarranto Bolton Green Graham

- No designated full forward in our ranks at all. Lynch will be finished as will Himmelburg (is 27 now). There should’ve already been someone Jack could of been teaching the craft to. Best teacher ever

 

[mrposhman]

3 flags - I’m content. But with our list at the moment the future looks like it will be years of bottom 4 finishes.
There are no Sheezel, Horne-Francis or Ashcroft, Daicos etc etc coming through.

A lot of supporters are desperately hoping some of our juniors will of a sudden be guns, when they don’t look like the will due to too many flaws and not enough elite talent.

All these players are long shots to be guns or propel us to premierships, not to say they don’t have some ability.

Dow- slow, poo kick
Ralphsmith - poor kick, timid
Cumberland - Unreliable, mentally fragile
Ryan - Ruckman arnt permanent full forwards. Ruck or bust. Defensively a witches hat
Gibscus- great white hope who whilst shows potential, was gifted games last year and didn’t show enough to say he was elite. Slow on the ground
MRJ - can’t get the pill
Millar - Slow, no aggression and no confidence. Not a genuine ruck and not a genuine back
Sonsie - has ability but slow, defensively poor.
Biggie - Never going to have the build or mental strength to compete at AFL level
Bauer/Bradtke/Colina - nope
Mansell - plodder who is someone who would have played 150 games in our dark years

Banks/Brown - jury’s out but nothing to suggest they are world beaters at this stage.

We’ll be horrendous without Lynch or Balta on the park giving us some sort of spine

I get your drift here, but do you really think we would have a Sheezel, Horne-Francis, Ashcroft or Daicos coming through??

Have we had a top 3 pick recently? Have we had a highly rated F/S coming through?

If you are judging us on not having a top 3 talent coming through when we haven't had access to them, its being a tad unfair don't you think?

 

[mrposhman]

Higgins, CCJ, RCD, Dow, Ross, Brown, Sonsie, Clark and Banks are all either failures or have major decencies in their game. He has got 2 top 30 picks out of 11 right. Balta and Gibcus.

Then include the likes of Naish, Will Martyn and Ralphshit.

He is a dud.

Higgins wasn't a bad pick, we got boned by Higgins. He's 24 and already played 90 games. The pick was fine, but he boned us on retention, still *smile* me this one, we stick by him when he has life changing brain surgery, we help him through all of that and then the loyalty goes out of the window and he asks for a trade.

CCJ we stuffed that pick up. There were plenty of picks after him.
Dow - Shallow draft, there were a lot of duds picked around that point and just after
Ross - Pick 43, 22 and played 50 games. You aren't getting complete players at that point of the draft
Brown - We haven't even see play due to injuries this year, not sure how you can call him a dud. We probably should have picked JVR but Brown may still end up a good player for us
Sonsie - Top 10 talent, just need to focus on his workrate - Got 28 in the 2's on Saturday, playing HB / Mid (was in a lot of CB's for someone playing half back)
Banks - How can you call a player yet to play a game when its the highest workrate position in the squad.

Naish / Martyn and RalphSmith are Picks 40 somethings. What do you expect with those picks? There will be good things and there will be bad things, some picks will barely play a game, sometimes you get a golden nugget.

Its like you expect the club to nail every single pick, which no-one has ever done in history.

The CCJ, RCD and Dow picks have hurt us, though both the RCD and Dow drafts were relatively shallow.

 

[thegdog]

I get your drift here, but do you really think we would have a Sheezel, Horne-Francis, Ashcroft or Daicos coming through??

Have we had a top 3 pick recently? Have we had a highly rated F/S coming through?

If you are judging us on not having a top 3 talent coming through when we haven't had access to them, its being a tad unfair don't you think?

Definitely a just argument. Dow bust hurts. We desperately need 2 or 3 of Green Clarke Sonsie Banks Smith Rioli Jnr to be at least B grade players

 

[mrposhman]

Definitely a just argument. Dow bust hursts. We desperately need 2 or 3 of Green Clarke Sonsie Smith Rioli Jnr to be at least B grade players

We certainly need them to come on, but they will not be a Sheezel, Horne-Francis, Ashcroft or Daicos so we can't be comparing them to that.

Its like wondering why that girl you pulled at the local pub doesn't look like Margot Robbie.

 

[taraba]

Aside from the 2017 draft the others had relatively slim pickings around our picks. Can’t blame recruiters if the talent just wasn’t there.

The 2017 draft we could have done much better and that’s the one that has hurt.

Purely on needs it was also ridiculous to go Brown over Van Rooyen as well. Will never understand that one.

 

[Tigers2011]

Higgins wasn't a bad pick, we got boned by Higgins. He's 24 and already played 90 games. The pick was fine, but he boned us on retention, still *smile* me this one, we stick by him when he has life changing brain surgery, we help him through all of that and then the loyalty goes out of the window and he asks for a trade.

CCJ we stuffed that pick up. There were plenty of picks after him.
Dow - Shallow draft, there were a lot of duds picked around that point and just after
Ross - Pick 43, 22 and played 50 games. You aren't getting complete players at that point of the draft
Brown - We haven't even see play due to injuries this year, not sure how you can call him a dud. We probably should have picked JVR but Brown may still end up a good player for us
Sonsie - Top 10 talent, just need to focus on his workrate - Got 28 in the 2's on Saturday, playing HB / Mid (was in a lot of CB's for someone playing half back)
Banks - How can you call a player yet to play a game when its the highest workrate position in the squad.

Naish / Martyn and RalphSmith are Picks 40 somethings. What do you expect with those picks? There will be good things and there will be bad things, some picks will barely play a game, sometimes you get a golden nugget.

Its like you expect the club to nail every single pick, which no-one has ever done in history.

The CCJ, RCD and Dow picks have hurt us, though both the RCD and Dow drafts were relatively shallow.

Well said. Reasoned overview. Most important thing now is to nail trade, free agency and draft for the next 2 years while we transition.

 

[DuD_Delist]

Aside from the 2017 draft the others had relatively slim pickings around our picks. Can’t blame recruiters if the talent just wasn’t there.

The 2017 draft we could have done much better and that’s the one that has hurt.

Purely on needs it was also ridiculous to go Brown over Van Rooyen as well. Will never understand that one.

Gone too early on Van Rooyen.
Looks like Tom Hawkins Lite.

 

[Jason King]

I reckon our player development has dropped off too, as someone pointed out in another thread. We just seemed to be able to get players up to the level where they could contribute at AFL level when we were in our prime, not so much now.

Can't say I'm crazy about the way they keep moving the young players into so many different positions at the moment either.

DS

Our players as a whole can barely execute simple kicks and handballs under the slightest of pressure.

That's rookie stuff. Can't believe year after year we are still at this point.

 

[bullus_hit]

Higgins, CCJ, RCD, Dow, Ross, Brown, Sonsie, Clark and Banks are all either failures or have major decencies in their game. He has got 2 top 30 picks out of 11 right. Balta and Gibcus.

Then include the likes of Naish, Will Martyn and Ralphshit.

He is a dud.

Been pointing this out for a few years now, still only a handful of supporters seeing the true state of the list, one which is now starting to show significant cracks. The only correction I'll make is Higgins, easily top 20 standard but left due to lack of opportunity and also being a rabid Saints fan, those things can happen so not a talent based misfire.

CCJ was a terrible pick which I pointed out at the time, it's always better to grab a project ruck like Meek or Ladhams and use top 30 picks on the spine or genuine mids.

Five top 30 picks and three flankers seems like overkill, Johnson looks good, Van Rooyen another who would have added something.

RCD was risky from the outset, we all knew his aerobic capacity was coming from a mile behind, I put all my trust in our fitness regime to get the lad up to speed but that didn't eventuate. Don't think we can afford to take those risks again. Dow was pegged as a third round to rookie selection, big reach from Clarke.

Aside from Baker it's been a litany of half glass empty types, most of whom have issues with kicking, Ralphsmith, Cumberland & Mansell look like depth players. When you consider we had Butler, Stengle and Castagna on the books things seem to be going in reverse.

My only wish now is for Francis Jackson to resume and for Clarke to be his understudy, I'm not calling for his head, I'm calling for the wiser head to get the house in order. So much to do from here and we can't afford to cut any corners.

 

[mrposhman]

To be honest every team screws picks up so you can only review it as a whole. We have had a distinct lack of early picks so its trying to find the diamond in the rough really.

I keep it simple really.
Picks 1-10 should be first team players and your stars
Picks 11-20 - should be first team players capable of playing 100-150 games
Picks 21-40 - You'd want probably a 50% win rate on those that are going to be best22
Picks 41+ - You want probably a 100% win rate for first team players, 40% for depth players and 50% are losses

Happy to disagree with any of the above, but straight off the top of my head thats roughly what we should target, so using that guidance, you look back at the drafts.

2017 - Higgins - 17 - Played 90 games at 24 - as I said above, good pick but he boned us
2017 - CCJ - 20 - Fail - Good players went after him
2017 - Balta - 25 - Good pick
2017 - Naish - 34 - Fail
2017 - Miller - 63 - Good pick
2017 - Baker - R18 - One of our best pickups ever
2018 - RCD - 20 - Fail but not a lot after
2018 - Ross - 43 - Good pick
2018 - Turner - 58 - Fail
2018 - English - 62 - Fail
2018 - Aarts - R16 - Win
I've ignored the other 2 as they were re-rookied
2019 - Pickett - MSD13 - Win
2019 - Dow - 21 - Fail though not a great deal after
2019 - Cumberland - 43 - Win
2019 - Martyn - 44 - Fail
2019 - RalphSmith - 46 - Win
2019 - Nyoun - 54 - Too early to tell
2020 - Ryan 40 - Win
2020 - MRJ - 51 - Win

2021 draft is too early to tell right now. So if we look back at that 4 year spell.

Picks 1 - 10 - Zero
Picks 11-20 - 3 picks - 1 win, 2 fails
Picks 21-40 - 4 picks - 2 wins, 2 fails
Picks 41+ - 12 picks - 8 wins, 1 too early, 3 fails

Our picks 11-20 are the real tough ones that we've had. Higgins (good pick), CCJ and RCD are the ones that hurt us, particularly CCJ, but then we did rehash that pick essentially with a few other picks into Sam Banks and Tim Taranto so we got some value out of it, but it doesn't take away from the drafting which wasn't great.

Picks 21-40 are probably on par. Balta was a big win as is Ryan, 2 first team players which is what you expect from that group. 2 fails in Naish and Dow.

Picks 41+, we have nailed. Picking up Bakes as a first teamer, and a bunch of players that are between our bottom end of our best 22 and depth in Ross, Pickett, Miller, Ralph Smith, Cumberland, MRJ and Aart.

Our drafting hasn't been as bad as people say, we haven't had the picks because we were busy winning premierships, but we do have a fair bit of coin on the 2021 draft. Expecting a star from Gibcus, a first teamer from Brown, and 1 or 2 of the next 3 being first teamers (Sonsie, Clarke and Banks).

 

[tigersnake]

Agree with most of this, and the argument, but you're a bit off on your expected win rates 20-plus. Approx 15% chance of a 200 gamer and 35% of a 100 gamer after pick 21. This is old data, obviously it takes 5-10 years for it to come in, I've venture the odds for top 10 have wound-in a bit, and the odd for beyond say 30 have wound-out. To my eye the Adam Goodes at pick 50 or whatever he was-type picks are decreasing over time.

Agree 100% all the way baby that results have to be compared to be assessed. Some people just can't grasp this basic reality. Some people seem to think we're the only club that picks busts.

I keep posting this, and some people just keep ignoring it. I'd love to see an updated version, the data would be available for two or three more years now. (I'll leave the farce of matching early academy picks with a bunch of junk picks alone, but the article confirms what we all know on that).

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

Lottery tickets or close to a sure thing? What AFL draft picks are actually worth

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

3 flags - I’m content. But with our list at the moment the future looks like it will be years of bottom 4 finishes.
There are no Sheezel, Horne-Francis or Ashcroft, Daicos etc etc coming through.

A lot of supporters are desperately hoping some of our juniors will of a sudden be guns, when they don’t look like the will due to too many flaws and not enough elite talent.

All these players are long shots to be guns or propel us to premierships, not to say they don’t have some ability.

Dow- slow, poo kick
Ralphsmith - poor kick, timid
Cumberland - Unreliable, mentally fragile
Ryan - Ruckman arnt permanent full forwards. Ruck or bust. Defensively a witches hat
Gibscus- great white hope who whilst shows potential, was gifted games last year and didn’t show enough to say he was elite. Slow on the ground
MRJ - can’t get the pill
Millar - Slow, no aggression and no confidence. Not a genuine ruck and not a genuine back
Sonsie - has ability but slow, defensively poor.
Biggie - Never going to have the build or mental strength to compete at AFL level
Bauer/Bradtke/Colina - nope
Mansell - plodder who is someone who would have played 150 games in our dark years

Banks/Brown - jury’s out but nothing to suggest they are world beaters at this stage.

We’ll be horrendous without Lynch or Balta on the park giving us some sort of spine

Top class wrap.
It's fantastic having 5 in 30 but if the 4 are duds. Your screwed.
We miss tooo many.
Either we torch them when they arrive or we just pick the wrong kids.
What ever happen to picking up kids that have a thrist for the contest or kids that love to run. We pick kids because they have good families and passed maths.
Just tooo many mises.
On Saturday night we shouldve had 3-4 kids 18-22ys old playing showing our future.
Where's Brown??
Geelong ripped us. They spread rumours they were really keen on him, similar to Holmes the year we traded with our biggest opposition. dumbest decided we have made in 20yrs.
Drafting has been our biggest Achilles heal since it was introduced.
From top 4 picks to top 20 picks we have scorched sooo many.
That's why I was really really scared that we went into a draft all chips in with 5 in 30.
Shouldve just chucked them all in together and offered them to a club for a top 5 pick. At least now 99% of the footy public know who the best kids in the country are.
We need Clarke & Hartley to retire. We need a new team.
A recruitment team that selects kids that know how to Kick, Mark and Run