Trade period 2021

[mrposhman]

Another, slightly lateral, way to look at pick 15 is to compare its worth in cold, hard facts.

Max Holmes vs Jaeger O'Meara.

That's essentially what we'd be paying for JOM, in a left-field kind of way.

Now, Holmes looks OK. And he managed to get games as a young player at Geelong. No mean feat. But did anyone see anything in 2021 to suggest 10 years of Holmes will offer more than 5 years of O'Meara?

I didn't.

Thats a good way of looking at it. The pick will be Pick 17 so who has gone at Pick 17 in past drafts. The below is the last 15 drafts.

Whilst there are some nice players there (and a couple of very good ones - Taylor and Doodee), I think I'd take 3-4 years of JOM or Mitchell and go for another premiership than 10 years of many of the others.

2020 - Oliver Henry
2019 - Brodie Kemp
2018 - Sam Sturt
2017 - Jack Higgins
2016 - Jarrod Berry
2015 - Tom Doodee
2014 - Kyle Langford
2013 - Michael Apeness
2012 - Josh Simpson
2011 - Clay Smith
2010 - Shaun Atley
2009 - Daniel Menzel
2008 - Sam Bleaze
2007 - Harry Taylor
2006 - Shaun Hampson

 

[mrposhman]

I know our cap is tight, but bear in mind we only have 14 players signed past 2022, so it will be tight in 2022 (Hawthorn will pay some of this), you'd think we should be able to come up with something to move salary between years in order to be able to fit one of them in (though we would need the Hawks to pay 50% of the salary in 2022 at least).

 

[tha8ball]

IMO - People notoriously overrate draft picks. Apart from maybe the first 5 picks… it really becomes a lottery as to whether or not they make the grade. I’d keep a tight grip on pick 7 this year due to not having a top 10 pick in a long time, but after that I’m not overly fussed. Think there is plenty of evidence to suggest later picks, rookie picks and PSD picks can be just as valuable.

 

[leon]

I tend to agree his hurt factor is lower than others, however we know we struggled to control territory in 2021 and a lot of that was down to clearances. How many times did we see teams constantly beat us at clearance and push the ball forward where we needed to start scoring chains from the back half.

Bringing players in, isn't purely on what they themselves provide as an individual but what they provide as the team. Improving at clearances is a massive issue for us and either Mitchell or JOM will improve us there, which should in turn allow us to control territory much better.

I think I saw a graphic somewhere that showed our turnover game. We still turned the ball over as much as we have in previous years, but we did it much further from goal so a lot closer to our D50. I'd much rather we were turning the ball over much closer to goal in order for us to hurt teams, and to do that we need to control territory much better than we did in 2021. Clearances is the start of that which is where either Mitchell of JOM would have a huge impact, far more than whoever we would pikc at Pick 15. Sure this would be a partial sacrifice of the future, but we all know that if we have our players on the park we are still 1 of the best teams in the comp, and we should therefore push for a flag once more. It would only be 1 pick, we would continue to draft high quality players with the other, so its 1 pick at 15 (17) that we would sacrifice, for giving us the tools to get back to what we do best and thats a forward half turnover team, where we became a back half turnover team during 2021 through our inability to control territory.

OK, I have weighed it up more, including your persuasive input here along with others, plus going in and looking at the comparative stats of TM v JOM. I could agree with you but two qualifications. Sure, there is no guarantee that we will definitely pick up an A grader with pick 15. Nor that any of our young mids is ready or able to step up to that class either, although I'm hoping RCD, Dow et al become handy players. PIck 15 may provide that but it's dependent on a lot of luck given that there's so little perceived games and form to base selection on - a lot of good fortune needed, to find someone with a surprising upside over the next 2/3 years. Final qualification is their physical fitness; Tom may even be in better condition currently.

But have to agree there's greater certainty with either TM or JOM - in our final launch at a flag for 2022/23? So which one? TM looks the better mid overall except for that key area we are deficient: JOM is a stronger clearance player (well remember him being the difference in a win over us a few games ago too!). Slightly younger too; I think a tougher player with more hurt factor also.

So, I go along with it, but trust the club to choose the best option for us subject to physical/medical/injury testing/reports. They are remarkably close in stats actually. Can live with giving up pick 15 though or 2 lower picks (26 & 28) even better - not getting bent over for anything much more (both 28 yo).

 

[zippadeee]

Another, slightly lateral, way to look at pick 15 is to compare its worth in cold, hard facts.

Max Holmes vs Jaeger O'Meara.

That's essentially what we'd be paying for JOM, in a left-field kind of way.

Now, Holmes looks OK. And he managed to get games as a young player at Geelong. No mean feat. But did anyone see anything in 2021 to suggest 10 years of Holmes will offer more than 5 years of O'Meara?

I didn't.

Geelong are spewing.
They thought he would've been more a ball winner with pace.
He isn't either

 

[mrposhman]

OK, I have weighed it up more, including your persuasive input here along with others, plus going in and looking at the comparative stats of TM v JOM. I could agree with you but two qualifications. Sure, there is no guarantee that we will definitely pick up an A grader with pick 15. Nor that any of our young mids is ready or able to step up to that class either, although I'm hoping RCD, Dow et al become handy players. PIck 15 may provide that but it's dependent on a lot of luck given that there's so little perceived games and form to base selection on - a lot of good fortune needed, to find someone with a surprising upside over the next 2/3 years. Final qualification is their physical fitness; Tom may even be in better condition currently.

But have to agree there's greater certainty with either TM or JOM - in our final launch at a flag for 2022/23? So which one? TM looks the better mid overall except for that key area we are deficient: JOM is a stronger clearance player (well remember him being the difference in a win over us a few games ago too!). Slightly younger too; I think a tougher player with more hurt factor also.

So, I go along with it, but trust the club to choose the best option for us subject to physical/medical/injury testing/reports. They are remarkably close in stats actually. Can live with giving up pick 15 though or 2 higher picks even better - not getting bent over for anything much more (both 28 yo).

JOM the better player for mine, and more of the clearance player we need, but do we balance it up with the durability of Tom Mitchell? He's barely missed a game for 5 years.

 

[btoz_01]

No flag and watch Collier Dawkins walk from one contest to the other.
Then you might care

So injury prone Omeara or hundreds of ineffectual Mitchell possessions guarantees us a flag ? Really?
no first round picks for either of them

 

[mrposhman]

So injury prone Omeara or hundreds of ineffectual Mitchell possessions guarantees us a flag ? Really?
no first round picks for either of them

I'm encouraged by your angst at this trade. The last time you were so irate, was when we recruited Prestia with Pick 6, and that worked out well.

 

[The_General]

That's bordering on bad management if true. Full of aging or injury prone players.

You call retaining Reiwoldt, Cotchin, Martin and signing Prestia and Lynch to longer term contracts so we can get them to join bad management?

Guess we should hand back those three premierships.

 

[Number8]

So injury prone Omeara or hundreds of ineffectual Mitchell possessions guarantees us a flag ? Really?
no first round picks for either of them

Those hundreds of so-called ineffectual possessions have one thing in common: they are possessions we're not getting at the moment, in a part of the ground where we desperately need them, under playing conditions that can turn a contested ball into a goal in a heartbeat.

 

[momentai]

I tend to agree his hurt factor is lower than others, however we know we struggled to control territory in 2021 and a lot of that was down to clearances. How many times did we see teams constantly beat us at clearance and push the ball forward where we needed to start scoring chains from the back half.

Bringing players in, isn't purely on what they themselves provide as an individual but what they provide as the team. Improving at clearances is a massive issue for us and either Mitchell or JOM will improve us there, which should in turn allow us to control territory much better.

I think I saw a graphic somewhere that showed our turnover game. We still turned the ball over as much as we have in previous years, but we did it much further from goal so a lot closer to our D50. I'd much rather we were turning the ball over much closer to goal in order for us to hurt teams, and to do that we need to control territory much better than we did in 2021. Clearances is the start of that which is where either Mitchell of JOM would have a huge impact, far more than whoever we would pikc at Pick 15. Sure this would be a partial sacrifice of the future, but we all know that if we have our players on the park we are still 1 of the best teams in the comp, and we should therefore push for a flag once more. It would only be 1 pick, we would continue to draft high quality players with the other, so its 1 pick at 15 (17) that we would sacrifice, for giving us the tools to get back to what we do best and thats a forward half turnover team, where we became a back half turnover team during 2021 through our inability to control territory.

Still opposed to using either of our 1st rounders to buy Hawks or others.
This promises to be a very good draft especially for mids.
Those referring to the lack of development of CJ, Dow etc are ignoring the impact on player development caused by Covid and the fact that they came from well back in the draft.
This is the first draft since Dusty arrived that we are in touch with the top prospects. Have my eye on Johnson followed by Rachele or Sonsie. All made to order for todays game, including the stand rule.

Two rather than one will make the team and each other better over the next 200+

A second rounder for Mitchell is as high as we should consider, and the Hawks would be doing us a favour if they refused.

 

[go polo]

max holmes no good i would take jaeger.

 

[King Kong]

max holmes no good i would take jaeger.

Holmes was close to BOG in the game against the AFL Academy this year. Geesook are very happy with his progress

 

[ceehook2]

I'll give you impact .... handball it to Dusty

or Bolton , or Prestia or Edwards

 

[zippadeee]

 

[leon]

JOM the better player for mine, and more of the clearance player we need, but do we balance it up with the durability of Tom Mitchell? He's barely missed a game for 5 years.

That's where you put your trust in our recruiting experts; need the medical reports, testing and details.

 

[bob]

Neil Balme on RSN today.

021RFCDraft

Neil Balme chats on RSN ahead of the 2021 trade period deadline.

www.richmondfc.com.au

 

[leon]

Holmes was close to BOG in the game against the AFL Academy this year. Geesook are very happy with his progress

I think he's tracking well for a 1st yr player. Got 10 games including finals for a contender. Finds some ball, genuine speed, chases and applies pressure, developing a tank, kicking seems reasonable. Not too shabby at all. Upside.

 

[btoz_01]

I'm encouraged by your angst at this trade. The last time you were so irate, was when we recruited Prestia with Pick 6, and that worked out well.

Some people have looooooooong loooonnng memories

I just wouldnt give up a first rounder for Omeara or Mitchell

 

[DavidSSS]

The above debate just shows how damned hard this is.

Do we get an older player to shore up our centre weaknesses, do we hope that the youth come through after a lack of genuine game time for the last 2 years, do we stock up on youngsters in the draft in the hope we pick up a couple of gems?

What is the situation with our salary cap and how does that limit what we can do?

More questions than answers.

Shows how hard it is to build a premiership team and how hard it is to recover once you have won one or more flags and the premiership players retire.

Another factor is how an experienced player can mentor the youth coming through so it is not just how well the imported player performs on field, but also some off field value too.

I have not favoured bringing in older players, I reckon there could be a couple of decent players amongst our younger brigade. RCD has potential, with a normal pre-season and hopefully VFL games and AFL games he could get a lot better. Ross I don't have much faith in . . . except he did have that injury and if that wasn't properly recovered he, too, could improve. Dow shows some signs. Ralphsmith shows signs. Ryan was put in an AFL game too early and I reckon could be very good. Cumberland has clear potential.

Bound to have forgotten a couple.

But a player like O'Meara or Mitchell could be the difference in 2022, even if they don't get the clearance they can prevent opposition clearances or just make the opposition clearances more pressured and less effective.

I'm relaxed either way as I figure the club know more about what will help than I do, but these choices are not easy and success is elusive.

DS