To Noldo, or not to Noldo, that is the question......

[spook]

How do we go at winning when both are played? Miss R2D2's expertise.

I'm only counting from 2019 onwards, tt, because before that Soldo was very much on training wheels as a footballer. I make it that they played together only three times in 2019 - all finals, all wins. In 2020 they played together four times, again all wins.

It's a resounding yes from me.

 

[spook]

I reckon this came up last year and the record with the two of them was very good but I think the record with one of them and a third forward/second ruck like Chol/CCJ with Lynch and Riewoldt in the side was better.

Not sure how you get better than being undefeated with both in the last two years.

 

[spook]

With Chol in the team:
2019: 8 wins, 1 loss
2020: 8 wins, 3 losses
2021: 3 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw

With CJ:
2021: 3 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw

 

[spook]

That's a very reasonable point.

The stats are a bit hard to compare when one guy hasn't played for over a season, and that was the season we struggled in.

When you look at 2019 it looks to me like we only played Soldo when Nankervis was injured and they both played when Nankervis came back underdone. (Assuming Soldo was ready to go all season?)

Then in 2020, they start together and perform poorly in round 1 where Nankervis is injured. Soldo is dropped on his return. Nankervis is injured again, so Soldo plays, Nankervis comes back and they play two games together, including v Fremantle where Nankervis has one kick for the game and Soldo has two. Then Soldo is injured.

So those seasons are far from a ringing endorsement of the combo.

Well, it's only seven games, so it's hard to declare anything concrete (even though we won all seven). But I don't see how you can say we do better with only one of them.

Those seven games:

2019 Qualifying Final v Brisbane (away): 12 disposals, 49 hitouts between them (Martin/McInerny 24/39). They at least neutralised a strong ruck combo and we only lost clearances 39-44 against a team whose 1-wood it was. Nank 61% TOG, Soldo 59% (Martin/McInerny 78%/77%), so we pretty much did play them off the bench. We won the ruck despite 35% less game time (and 35% more time for a runner) for our pair. WON by 47.

2019 prelim v Geelong: 15 disposals, 34 hitouts in a combined 115% game time (so 85% of the time one of them was on the bench) v Stanley/Ratugolea 27/32 in 163% combined TOG. Clearances 30-34. Once again, an overall win for us I'd say, once again with significantly more TOG for an extra runner. WON by 19, overrunning them in the second half.

2019 grand final v GWS: 24 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal, 42 hitouts in combined 100% TOG (that's one on the bench for the entire game). Clearances 35-32. Mumford/Finlayson/Himmelberg 23 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal, 18 hitouts in combined 230% TOG. Dominant. WON by 89.

2020
R1 v Carlton: 17 disposals, 41 hitouts in combined 104% TOG. Clearances 31-32. WON by 24.
R14 v West Coast: 23/31, 2 goals. 135% TOG. NicNat/Williams 19/30, 1 goal, 150% TOG. As @an_oxford_man so beautifully detailed at the time, Hardwick left both rucks on the field for a time to kick sand in Adam Simpson's face. Our men goaled within a minute of each other while resting forward. WON by 27.
R15 v Freo: 8/32, 122%. Darcy/Lobb 18/26, 185%. WON by 27 (doubled their score).
R17 v Geelong: 14/18, 101% (Soldo ACL). Blicavs/Ratugolea 33/17, 2 goals, 169%. WON by 26 (almost doubled their score, kept them to 1 goal in first 3Q).

In 2019, we did only play Soldo when Nank was injured, until the finals. But Soldo was a novice. He grew so much that year and even more in 2020. TOG % says we do pretty much play them off the bench. It gives us an extra runner but it means more work for all our runners. The results suggest it's worth it.

The difference will be if Balta plays forward alongside Jack and Tom. But if he's taking Aarts' spot we don't lose much in run and gain a lot more in offensive threat.

It could be Balta forward v George (our 2019-21 '3rd tall'), which would tear a few of us.

 

[Carter]

2019 taught us the most valuable of lessons.

have a listen to that idiot C. Scott in the Sound the Alarm doco for the 2020 GF.

he keeps repeating what he perceives to be our weakness - our contest method around the packs, around the ball.

the thing is, with Nankervis and Soldo in the same side (finals 2019, a handful of games in the shortened 2020 season) we can work teams over around the packs and STILL execute our pressure, turnover game off the ball.

as Spooker has said, the results speak for themselves.

dunno how anyone can argue against playing these two behemoths at this point.

 

[spook]

Be interested if Spook noticed what our forward composition was in the 7 games those boys played together?

In the 2019 finals it was Jack, Lynch, George, Rioli, Shai, with Dusty spending plenty of time there (most of the Brisbane final), and Lambert/Graham/Sheds rotating high half-forward.

2020 games similar deal, with Aarts replacing Shai when Shai took over Sheds' role.

George basically 3rd tall any time Dustin wasn't there.

Nank 87% TOG 2017 GF.

I hear you on the cumulative fatigue but on balance I think it's a winner for us. We can and will rotate runners, and both rucks are likely to get a freshen at some stage too.

In the 2018 prelim Grundy got Nank by the hair and our Plan B was Grigg. That's a lack of flexibility. In 2022 we don't have to beat Gawn and Jackson, but if they get hold of us, good night. Teams walked it out of the centre against us last year, they don't do that against Soldo.

 

[TigerPort]

That's a great analysis.

It's a pity we really only have 6 games (with Soldo's injury) and probably only 3 high intensity games to compare.

That's the part that worries me the most though. Having one of them on the bench almost permanently dramatically changes the composition of the interchange access.

I'd imagine Nankervis goes at something north of 70% TOG when he rucks alone? Perhaps even pushing 80 in a big game?

Huge difference in the amount of time that fourth bench space is full and with the flexibility of rotations. It can be managed but personally I'd be nervous about the fatigue risks if you carried that through week after week.



Only if Balta plays forward. If he is back then I'm in favour off the second ruckman who plays forward as well.

Be interested if Spook noticed what our forward composition was in the 7 games those boys played together?

Having the luxury of rotating mids through the forward pocket helps. You either rotate Nank and Soldo as the 3rd tall and use the bench exclusively for mid rotation

Or you rotate the rucks off the bench and use the forward pocket to rotate the likes of Martin Bolton Graham and Edwards

 

[Smoking Aces]

Furious agreement here, I still wonder how we won a flag in 2017 with makeshift second key forwards and rucks!

We have to have a second ruck who will be competitive and can also play forward for mine. I think Balta can be effective in the ruck as he has at other times.

If any other player was playing as that second undersized ruck it would have been an absolute failure. Grigg’s footy IQ is off the charts. Made up for any lack of height.

 

[Scoop]

Good debate, keep going lads.

 

[tommystigers]

This thread is a thing of beauty. Thrust and parry, and then a counter attack with finesse and skill.
A great debate. I stand and applaud.

 

[Brodders17]

If any other player was playing as that second undersized ruck it would have been an absolute failure. Grigg’s footy IQ is off the charts. Made up for any lack of height.

i think it helped how dominate were ultimately were every where else. even if the opposing ruck gave it to a mid on a platter our pressure arounf the ball was fantastic, then our backline was close to the best ever, at both playing off and intercepting, or defending 1 on 1.


i havent been in favour of the 2 rucks, but it has worked. i do worry tho what happens if injury strikes, we would be forced to play the out of the forward line, which alongside Jack, Lynch and Aarts would make us very slow,

 

[Baloo]

Could we nominate a designated Stander before the match? The resting ruckman will stay on the ground and run from mark to mark standing at attention.

 

[Tigerfan]

Interesting dimension this Noldovis

 

[Dyer'ere]

Clearances. Can be a misleading stat. Particularly with Modern Richmond. It's not how many we win but which ones we win in the appropriate game phase.

Modern Richmond, from the moment the great master Mr Damien Hardwick walked in the door, plays the game in controlled phases. Each phase planned for timing and for result.

The scoring from contested phase is what we open with. (And what we destroy teams with in the third, although the third usually involves more risk taking from HB.) In this phase Richmond's star midfielders of 2017, in particular the great star mid Dion Prestia, were awesome. Prestia fit and sound. Dominant when we needed him. Trent Cotchin was batting #2. A ruck tap was handy but not necessary. What we had to have was a ruck who prevented the other side from controlling and predicting the grass to which the tap would be sent. Our ruck had to prevent, in our attacking phase, their ruck from sending the ball to their space. When a ruck can control in a predicted period the grass that the ball will fall to you get usually get Ruck Rout. Unheated clearances to them therefore precise I50s.

If the other ruck is routing us any plans we have for attacking will become a defensive disaster and we will be thrashed on the scoreboard. Our planned and controlled attack phase will result in plenty of scoring for them. Their dice rolling pays off and ours is punished.

Ruck Rout. Our ruck, in our attacking phase, must not allow theirs to predictably dictate grass. Or it all unravels.

Now, our ruck can dictate grass simply in preventing theirs from doing so. If our ruck can get body on theirs and nullify the other's ability to move the ball any distance we know the ball will fall shallow. We're controlling and predicting the grass. And even if their mid gets it we can heat him and force a turnover. Lose the clearance win the play.

In this attacking phase it would be preferable to not just prevent their ruck rout but for our ruck to do the routing. For our ruck to able to be precise in the grass he chooses. (A fit Soldo can do this. That's his thing.) But it's not essential.

In 2017 we were a surprise packet. Toby was fit and was doing what he does best - providing a physical presence at the fall. He was hunting their mids, blocking for ours and usually eclipsing taller opponents at the the inside ground game. In the GF Jacobs got 50 HO to Toby 30 and we beat them comprehensively for clearances and on the scoreboard. And Toby was unsupported.

In 2017 when we rucked Grigg it was an ambush. And we didn't open with him. We used him in defensive phases and briefly. But he was very useful at the fall in his formation work. And IIRC our formations at the fall were denser. More players around the ball. By 2019 we'd introduced Soldo.

Toby Nankervis is a cruiserweight. He's short and light. And he can't jump. He's an inside ruck. He works at the fall, doesn't sag to space. He's nothing special in a marking contest but these days can spoil. Not an aerialist. Cruiserweight relying on mobility and ground plays. He has missed big chunks of the past three seasons with injury and has often played hampered.

Most importantly, even when Toby is fully fit and sound he can still get a hiding. Get monstered by a talented dinosaur. The other ruck can rout. It doesn't happen often. But Grundy, Gawn have got a hold of him in the past. Another dinosaur got a hold of him in 2021. Cruiserweights are vulnerable to dinosaurs.

BTW there is an emerging inside cruiserweight ruck - 20yo premiership player Luke Jackson will hopefully get a taste of some Toby malice this year. We want Toby on Gawn only for controlled passages. And in 2023 we should have a fit and sound Soldo for Gawn. If we are very lucky indeed Soldo may be both of those things in 2022.

And then we will have a partnership to compete with the premiers. The benchmark ruck combination in the game. As it stands with Nank often absent or playing injured and Soldo recovering from a career-threatening injury we are a long way off where we want to be.

 

[Sintiger]

2019 taught us the most valuable of lessons.

have a listen to that idiot C. Scott in the Sound the Alarm doco for the 2020 GF.

he keeps repeating what he perceives to be our weakness - our contest method around the packs, around the ball.

the thing is, with Nankervis and Soldo in the same side (finals 2019, a handful of games in the shortened 2020 season) we can work teams over around the packs and STILL execute our pressure, turnover game off the ball.

as Spooker has said, the results speak for themselves.

dunno how anyone can argue against playing these two behemoths at this point.

Nothing to do with Noldo but salty Scott also said at halftime that Astbury on Hawkins was a great match up for them.
Astbury kept Hawkins goalless in the 2nd half

 

[CarnTheTiges]

Nothing to do with Noldo but salty Scott also said at halftime that Astbury on Hawkins was a great match up for them.
Astbury kept Hawkins goalless in the 2nd half

Wonder if Dave got word of that? Likes a challenge.

 

[Dyer'ere]

@an_oxford_man put me onto what Melbourne was doing with their rucks in 2021. And their plan just kept getting better in its execution.

In 2017, 2019, 2020 Richmond was easily the best manager of game phases and player energy. In 2021 Melbourne destroyed everybody at this.

Luke Jackson does the hard yakka in the first half. Young and fit he is the workhorse. An inside cruiserwieght with elite mobility he is busy and blue collar. During this very taxing hour Max Gawn works on his tan and contemplates the Rare Pokemon. (They say he's better at Pokemon.)

Then, suntanned and relaxed, Max Gawn strolls into the middle and destroys the game in the second half. He was playing #3 mid for them back end of 2021. #3 mid was their big weakness.

To combat Melbourne's ruck supremacy we need a cruiserweight and a dinosaur.

Here's the rub. Energy management.

Our rucks are not versatile. Neither of them are much good forward. So their lack of TOG puts pressure 20 other players. IN the 2020 GF Nank 58% and Soldo 42%. So the other 20 have to find another 60 TOG points to cover them, an average of 3% extra TOG.

That will translate into longer defensive phases, defensive plan and formation phases.

In the 2021 GF Gawn played 86% and Jackson 78%. There's no TOG tax on the other players. Because atm Melbourne has a tactical edge because superior players.In the PF it was 74 and 78 with Max kicking a lazy five straight.

It is essential to prevent ruck rout when playing Melbourne. This starts with Gawn. Jackson is eminently stoppable in ruck contests. Teams need a fresh player for Gawn. You've gotta play two rucks.

Maybe three. Balta is stronger than Jackson and faster. A defensive ruck role might teach him where the ball is. He can play small forward like George used to when he changes. Hustle and spoil. Or he can follow the kid to defend when Jackson goes forward. He must get a go in the ruck at some stage.

Maybe it's Noldalta.

 

[spook]

Exactly my thinking, Jack.

 

[MD Jazz]

Maybe three. Balta is stronger than Jackson and faster. A defensive ruck role might teach him where the ball is. He can play small forward like George used to when he changes. Hustle and spoil. Or he can follow the kid to defend when Jackson goes forward. He must get a go in the ruck at some stage.

Not for mine. Love Balta, he’s a star, but Jackson beats him everywhere. Tougher and more competitive. He’s a beast. Perhaps balta can tag and nullify him (tagging ain’t that difficult) but Jackson leaves Noah looking for a new ark most days for me.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Not for mine. Love Balta, he’s a star, but Jackson beats him everywhere. Tougher and more competitive. He’s a beast. Perhaps balta can tag and nullify him (tagging ain’t that difficult) but Jackson leaves Noah looking for a new ark most days for me.

He's a very interesting player, MD. Jackson is very precocious. IQ wise he's ready made. And in calling him an inside cruiserweight I've understated his ability to spread. He gets on the gallop and gets involved. A great oil for Gawn.

That said, Noah is immature and really unpredictable right now. I have him marked project player. He's got quite a bit on Jackson for strength but can he use it? And he can keep up easily. Looking at the praccy it looks like Soldo is moving well so Balta may not get a chance.