Great to have a such a card, lads. A laddies promotion sees them paying first and second in the Memsie. They’re getting killed in the market place so expect them to be more competitive this spring with their product.
The fact that Kementari is 3rd up has him in with a chance. He is the unproven galloper, but the fact is he should’ve won first up and while he was disappointing behind Winx the run was inconclusive IMO. Agree that he maps well, ET, and suspect that the entire prefers to wind up around the field like you say. But similar to you, Leysy, I am looking to convict him as a WFA prospect but need to see more adult form. A failure here might see him duck back to the handicaps like the Epsom, Rupert Clarke and Toorak. He’d be in those races up to his ears so he is in for a fine preparation in any case. Is he truly a WFA performer? We’ll find out more today but I won’t be on. He is well found at $4.50 and that’s a fraction shorter than what I have him. You aren’t the only one who is keen, ET. One of my most astute mates is mad on him and he’s been potting him all prep.
Happy Clapper is enticing at $5.50. But Pat Webster is mouthing off about another Cox Plate tilt and that makes me gun shy now that he’s 8yo. Two very nice trials and the fact that Winx is the only horse that has beaten him at his best journeys in the last year have me respecting him and I think he’s entitled to be second favourite. He appears certain to find cover from 7 and if he lobs midfield he can win if the favourite flops. If he is anywhere near 100% he is the bet of the century with the ladbrokes promotion. Must run 1-2 if right.
The logical elect Vega Magic is entirely backable at $2.80 and is entitled to be shorter IMO. Screams off the page as a knock taker for that promotion laddies is offering. He was dominant and eased down to win in the Memsie last year defeating three subsequent G1 WFA winners. That performance was coming off a similarly dominant first up win in a Caulfield sprint to beat subsequent G1 performers Brave Smash and Santa Ana Lane. In truth, he flogged them too as he gave them both 6kgs. He wasn’t ridden out in the Bletchingly when he trounced Voodoo Lad who was dominant previously in the Monash and subsequently in the Aurie’s Star. And he appeared to overrace early. There are some wildcards in the speed map and he is drawn outside Jungle Edge this time, but he is so quick if Ollie wants the rail he will find it easily. Tactically he has the most options and form wise he is a leading top pick. Insulate with Ladbrokes and you’re in a super strong position. I’m with, Leysy here. I’m on.
As with many races, what D K Weir is doing with his three hopes is hard to decipher. Unpredictable betting patterns, tactics and a large team of riders with different attributes makes it very difficult it to bet with confidence when he has so many well credentialed runners in a race. I’d try to interpret the form of these runners, but they tend to mix their form. If anyone has worked out the pattern yet, let me know. Rob Smerdon isn’t allowed near race tracks anymore, but the formula was clear and reliable. The informed could get on at the end of a plunge and know that it didn’t matter what price you took nine times out of ten. But I digress... One thing I’m certain of is D K Weir knows who his best chance is (if any) but I’ve got no *smile* idea who it is.
Kementari is head and shoulders above the other 4yos and I’m eager to see him. Grunt and Showtime need to improve markedly to be competitive here as this race is much stronger. Mick Price’s mare was huge first up with a big weight against the boys. If she is running into the finish she could indict the quality of the race. Mick Bell’s evergreen sprinter Jungle Edge is genuine and could earn another cheque but needs freak weather to pinch this.
In the last in Sydney there is a horse that I had the misfortune of backing last time out called Best of Days. He’s an ex Pom but has the right profile to come through his grades quickly and make his presence felt in a race like the Caulfield Cup. He was a Christ killing certainty beaten last time and with a clear run I expect he could be dominant today. 2-1 still available. He just wins.
The only horse at double figure odds that tempts me is I am a Star in the last at Caulfield. There was a little bit of money for her first up against the boys in the Aurie’s Star and she is well up to this kind of race against her own sex. Catchy may find trouble from the inside barrier. I’m eager to get a look at Vandyke’s mare and can’t entertain her at $4.60 even with the gun money rider in Melham on. I Am A Star’s best wins this race and by all reports Nichols is very happy with her. Barrier 13 is Oliver’s problem but she isn’t without tactical speed so he should have options. Something each way for me.
Good luck, PREnders. Hope you find a profit and our VFL boys salute.