Team selection vs Geelong Cants | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Team selection vs Geelong Cants

Sintiger said:
Makes absolute sense.
I find it amazing that when we risk players and they get injured the club gets criticised and when we don’t risk players the club also gets criticised.
Actually I am not sure I find it amazing, maybe predictable is a better word.
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It's a simple formula

Lose games - sack coach, everyone at club is incompetent, team selection was wrong
Win games - coach will be sacked in future, fitness and conditioning is incompetent, team selection was still wrong
 
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TigerFlag2017 said:
Pick 2 is looking pretty safe
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don't say that :-(

banged out a quick ladder predictor

Reckon there's a real chance the Saints could fizzle in the back half of the season
and we pick up wins v Norf , Hawks & Saints and struggle into 15th
we need to tank in one of Hawks or Saints game and our % might get us back to 17th
it could be a nail biting last month to the season :-(

1717118510802.png
 
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ceehook2 said:
don't say that :-(

banged out a quick ladder predictor

Reckon there's a real chance the Saints could fizzle in the back half of the season
and we pick up wins v Norf , Hawks & Saints and struggle into 15th
we need to tank in one of Hawks or Saints game and our % might get us back to 17th
it could be a nail biting last month to the season :-(

View attachment 22911
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Bit hard on the Hawks there, you reckon they'll only win 1 more match?
 
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Thats my stab at a ladder predictor for the rest of the year. I especially enjoyed the finishing positions of the Bombers and Port.
 

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ceehook2 said:
don't say that :-(

banged out a quick ladder predictor

Reckon there's a real chance the Saints could fizzle in the back half of the season
and we pick up wins v Norf , Hawks & Saints and struggle into 15th
we need to tank in one of Hawks or Saints game and our % might get us back to 17th
it could be a nail biting last month to the season :-(

View attachment 22911
Click to expand...
Krueser cup RFC v kangaroos for mine…
 
mrposhman said:
Thats my stab at a ladder predictor for the rest of the year. I especially enjoyed the finishing positions of the Bombers and Port.
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Its hard to know with Essendon if it is better if the collapse happens soon, late in the H&A season, or in the finals.

Geelong missing finals would be nice.
 
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I always use the Squiggle autotip feature which does about 5000 simulations and some tricky Gaussian analysis to predict the final ladder. In our flag winning years it predicted us making the top four about 8 weeks out each time, it's pretty accurate!

Anyways it says we are safely in the bottom two.

1717121981796.png
 
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ceehook2 said:
don't say that :-(

banged out a quick ladder predictor

Reckon there's a real chance the Saints could fizzle in the back half of the season
and we pick up wins v Norf , Hawks & Saints and struggle into 15th
we need to tank in one of Hawks or Saints game and our % might get us back to 17th
it could be a nail biting last month to the season :-(

View attachment 22911
Click to expand...
That ladder has us winning 5 more games. Can't see that happening. Saints game is at the Dump. Not winning that no matter how crap Lyon is.
 
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AngryAnt said:
I always use the Squiggle autotip feature which does about 5000 simulations and some tricky Gaussian analysis to predict the final ladder. In our flag winning years it predicted us making the top four about 8 weeks out each time, it's pretty accurate!

Anyways it says we are safely in the bottom two.

View attachment 22915
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The Suns missing finals by one percent and some change is delicious. Could only hack Essington making top four if they went out in straight sets.
 
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tommystigers said:
The Suns missing finals by one percent and some change is delicious. Could only hack Essington making top four if they went out in straight sets.
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Ran it a few more times - the Guassian randomness means you'll get slightly different outcomes, but if a team doesn't move at all in each simulation then it's pretty likely to finish that way. Essendon makes top four once from four sims. Gold Coast don't make it. We finish bottom two every time.

1717123059734.png 1717123165985.png 1717123285670.png1717123234803.png
 
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AngryAnt said:
I always use the Squiggle autotip feature which does about 5000 simulations and some tricky Gaussian analysis to predict the final ladder. In our flag winning years it predicted us making the top four about 8 weeks out each time, it's pretty accurate!

Anyways it says we are safely in the bottom two.

View attachment 22915
Click to expand...
Essendon straight sets sydmey then melbourne. Two 5-10 goal losses.
 
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