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Shattered is an understatement!
- Thread starter richards42
- Start date
While Clarke still has a lot to prove, that's not accurate. Unsurprisingly on that show.
He was in charge in 17'. Which was a good collect with Balta, Higgins and inspired Baker pick.
It also doesn't mention Pickett, Bauer, Young or the remainder of last years picks (jury still out obv).
I saw this on FC, but what does it really show??? Just games played by players we picked, not ratings on how bad they are.
As usual, a lot of criticism with no comparison, no reference points. The logic is we have drafted players who were no good and didn't make it, therefore our drafting is bad.
I saw a black cat, therefore all cats are black.
As I've posted for the last 15 years, all clubs have draft busts, individual players and whole years, often. You need to look at the trend, the strike rate, compared across all clubs. Otherwise you're just wasting jaw cartledge. I did some analysis that suggested we ahead of the curve up to the '21 draft. Without crunching the numbers, I'd say we've slipped back to the pack, average or maybe below the curve. Remember we've been at or near the top end of the ladder for 10 years, that means not many early draft picks, that the key takeaway.
We went all-in 21. But we needed to beat the house and find 3 or 4 good players. I think we parred the draft, by the numbers you get 1-2 good players, and that what we'll probably end up getting.
Drafting is mostly a numbers game.
I saw a black cat, therefore all cats are black.
As I've posted for the last 15 years, all clubs have draft busts, individual players and whole years, often. You need to look at the trend, the strike rate, compared across all clubs. Otherwise you're just wasting jaw cartledge. I did some analysis that suggested we ahead of the curve up to the '21 draft. Without crunching the numbers, I'd say we've slipped back to the pack, average or maybe below the curve. Remember we've been at or near the top end of the ladder for 10 years, that means not many early draft picks, that the key takeaway.
We went all-in 21. But we needed to beat the house and find 3 or 4 good players. I think we parred the draft, by the numbers you get 1-2 good players, and that what we'll probably end up getting.
Drafting is mostly a numbers game.
Yep I can see that - however, the focus should be on his 1st round misses - he hasn't hit a single one of those apart from Gibcus who a 13yold on Bigfruity could have picked.
You'll always reach the cliff if you can't replace your elite talent with 1st round draft wins.
Its well known that we have the smallest recruiting team of any club under Clarke. The excuse always was confidentiality. and more recently soft cap cuts. However, I've heard that neither of these are the real reason.
Don't forget the 2017 stuff up (Draft that is) Higgins CCJ Balta & Naish
Weren't they all top 25 picks & Naish a father son ?
How many sides get 3 top 25 picks after winning a flag.
Balta only one still on the list & Higgins kicking goals at the Saints
On what basis is this a stuff up? On the basis of players playing senior footy, 2 out 4, that's the opposite of stuff up
On the basis of finding a premiership best 22 KPP, 1 out of 4, thats still far from a stuff up.
And thats putting aside the fact we effectively got our money back for an actual stuff up in CCJ, which never happens and was a big bonus.
Objectively, 1 player out of 4 a total stone motherless bust, (and even then Naishy was picked up by another club) and you're calling that a stuff-up?
There are any number of drafts, by us and any other side that you could point to as a stuff-up, but that aint one of them. Reminds me of Croc Dundee, 'Thats not a stuff-up, THATS a stuff-up'
Higgins wasnt a stuff up. At the time he was a highly rated junior. Higgins he is still a good footballer and one that should still be on our list.
The one we stuffed up on was CCJ over Allen. But again at the time I can see the logic.
Actually CCJ made the biggest mistake going to North. His career has been in free fall. I still think if he was on our list now he would be getting games even if we didnt have injuries.
That's what you do when you are (allegedly) the highest paid AFL coach ... Pre-season is 'contracted out' to ACs and fitness team. And we lost Burge who was highly experienced and successful.
It's all looking scandalous to me. So unprofessional.
TO me it just seemed like he was still overseas far too deep into the pre-season. The message from him late ast year was 'take the stairs' , do the extra etc. Pre-season is the slog - maybe he should have been there for more of it.
Newer coaches, and younger coaches, would have been
This. Putting it perfectly in these posts, Scoop. I, for one, have been really disillusioned with the club's drafting, going back to Higgins in '17. I know at the time I posted about why were we taking another SF after just winning the flag with the 3 amigos in their prime (and I think we had Baker too). Why would we not take a promising big KPF/ruck like Allen?
I'm sick of the club's obsession with lightly built HBFs or smalls. I'm not at all convinced by Sonsie either. Obviously the Dorks clearly decided that a really tough, hard, big-bodied mid - Jai Newcombe - that they picked up from their VFL team, made Sonsie irrelevant. Who would you back in one-on-ones?
If we loved HBFs so much, why did we let Markov just walk out from disinterest? [He can run, kick long/ok and compete aerially; he might hold his place in the Skunks side looking a real flag threat]. Our treatment of Butler was just arrogant negligence. If we rated Higgins so high as to expend pick 17, then maybe we shouldn't have let him go from our high-minded sense of 'fairness.' Even the Aints are probably still laughing hard about that one.
Our failure to pick a decent mid even with high picks like those wasted on CEllis and RCJ is just terrible, very damaging - so that we've had to expend future draft capital on Taranto and Hopper. Now we look like we are falling off a cliff and there are IMO no definite draft winners - personally I still think even Gibcus has much to prove as a KPD to take the big gorillas yet, but showed promise. But JVR is showing similar good signs too - could have been the perfect JR8 replacement. Or are we confident of getting HH? Maybe less chance if we continue our crappy form in '23.
If the Tasmanian club comes in, with 10 high draft picks in their first and second years, five in the third, if we don't get a solid rebuild advancing over '25/'26 drafts, we could be consigned back to the wilderness like Norf, Dorks and WCE are facing currently.
With Peggy already gone, Benny too very likely and Dimma probably (but I think his time is up anyway IMHO).
Higgins ultimately left the club so I don't call it a success. Balta yes. Baker, his absolute gem. One of the great rookie picks.
Pickett yes but Bauer and Young still have a mile to go to credit for.
But you can't call it a failure. Isn't the object of drafting to find players who can play?
By similar logic, Gibcus is a bust because he's injured.
If Gibcus was never to play again he would be a bust.
Higgins playing so many games for someone else isn't Clarke's fault but it doesn't help his record. It's a mulligan.
Fair enough. I can see your logic, total commitment to the cause is a factor. For me it isn't just win/loss, boom/ bust. There's a spectrum, Dusty at one end, Sipthorpe at the other, and a heap of possibilities in between.
On the basis that CCJ didn’t really do much , Higgins , yes was talented but at the time we had plenty of small forwards & he wasn’t getting a game hence then leaving so it seems a wasted pick.
Yes we got something back for CCJ but for Higgins did we only get a pick upgrade ? (Not 100%sure) But we put a few years into him just to walk.
AFL coaches don't need training courses or watching NBL or NFL games to help them coach.
Hardwick didn't need to go on a 'sobriety' like he called it.
He shouldve over looked at least the last 8 weeks of preseason to see who needed extra work.
Because looking from the outside we look so unfit, it's not funny.
Hardwick didn't need to go on a 'sobriety' like he called it.
He shouldve over looked at least the last 8 weeks of preseason to see who needed extra work.
Because looking from the outside we look so unfit, it's not funny.
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