PRE 2017 Phantom Draft

[bullus_hit]

HAWTHORN

43. Jordan Houlahan
68. Kyron Hayden
75. Mitch Crowden
81. Lloyd Meek

No questioning the fact that Hawthorn have stepped into this draft with a dud hand after selling the farm to get Jaeger O'Meara. In the wash-up I think they've done reasonably well to get a host of players who have decent upside & players who could feasibly make a contribution in 2018. Houlahan is a precocious talent who in all likelihood will go much earlier than pick 43. His leaping is on par with Jeremy Howe and despite not having the consistency of others could surprise as one of the steals of the draft. Having recovered from a shoulder reconstruction his performances this year have convinced me he's every bit as talented as Will Hayward who ended up being a first round pick last year.

The remaining three picks are all players who have slipped under the radar for one reason or another. Kyron Hayden was one of the best 15 year olds in Australia before being sidelined with osteitis pubis, his comeback hasn't necessarily been headline grabbing but I've seen enough to be convinced there's enough talent there to give him some chance of making the grade. Athletically he's outstanding, his leap is bigger than Nic Naitanui and he possesses raw power which enables him to burst away from the stoppages. If I was to give an award for the best 'Don't Argue' in this year's crop Hayden wins hands down. One area that will need immediate attention is his endurance base which was particularly noticeable at state level. At pick 75 the Hawks have gone with Mitch Crowden who had a great carnival but couldn't manage a national combine invite, fortunately for Mitch he got the nod at the SA state testing and blitzed in every category. His rugby build has clearly turned off many clubs but there's absolutely no question his athletic profile is of AFL quality. Crowden's left foot is also damaging and has a similar hurt factor to Daniel Rich. With 175cm players getting more attention these days I'm confident he can find a niche as a defensive small forward. With the last pick the Hawks have opted to strengthen the ruck division and Meek is the best available, this year has seen his overall production improve and his forward potency become a feature rather than a hindrance.

Grade: Not Rated

 

[bullus_hit]

MELBOURNE

29. Harrison Petty
31. Toby Wooller
36. Liam Ryan
47. Dylan Moore

Rookies - Sean Mannagh & Derek Smith

Leading into this draft the Dees were probably short on a bit of pace & flare and some added depth in the key position department, for the most part I think they've targeted the right player types, it just becomes a question of making the correct 50/50 decision with each selection. Petty versus Sam Taylor is one of the more intriguing sub-plots in this year's draft. I have Taylor ahead at this stage based on some outstanding form at senior level, Petty on the other hand won SA's MVP and probably marked himself as the best intercept player at the carnival. I think in this situation the Dees have opted for a bit of upside rather than exposed form, the big challenge for Petty will be putting on some much needed bulk so he's able to square up with the goriilas, at present he's 82kg and 13kg's off optimum weight. At pick 31 Melbourne have gone with Toby Wooller as their key position forward, a player who had a very good TAC season but an average carnival. Looking at the alternatives, the Dees have gone with the undersized option but a more mobile type who would act as a foil for Hogan. Whether this turns out to be a better choice than Tom McCartin remains to be seen but if there's one area that Toby needs to focus on it's intensity and a little bit more of a killer instinct. At pick 36 the Dees have gambled on the human highlights reel in Liam Ryan, a player who was overlooked last year due to some appalling running data. Having lifted his beep from a 9 to a 12 (yo-yo equivalent), I think it's fair to say Liam will get his chance in 2017. As to whether he has the mental fortitude to become an AFL footballer will be one of the more interesting stories from this year's draft class. I personally don't doubt his ability, but I have received intelligence that he lacks professionalism.

At the bargain end of the draft Melbourne have gone with the lightest player but the best runner in the pool. 68 kilos is on par with Caleb Daniel so it will be interesting to see how quickly Moore can make the transition. With pressure small forwards being the new black it seems inevitable that he will be picked up, whether he goes before Spargo, Giro, Daniels & Crowden will be intriguing. I think with Moore's elite endurance a club will be looking at eventually moving him into a Lachie Neale type role.

Grade: B

 

[Tails]

Here are the official AFL highlights for Ballenden, for the most part he's playing in defence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4N0ssT2iH-E&t=39s

As for Dixon, he has definitely divided opinions but I'm looking at the player he could become if given the same opportunities as some of the TAC kids. At present he's carrying a bit of puppy fat and it looks as though he's had minimal attention paid to strength & conditioning. For me he's a nice package for a true power forward, the fact he topped the carnival with 67% of his touches being contested (largely due to contested marking) makes me think there's a fair bit of upside to the lad. His agility is really good given his height, this should counterbalance his lack of speed. On that last point, I don't think speed is as critical for a power forward as it is with other player types. Josh Kennedy has below average speed but counterbalances that with football smarts. For pick 52 I think Dixon is worth a punt, I know Richmond have interviewed him and the feedback I'm getting is that he's a little introverted but not delusional about what lies ahead. If he works hard and gets his body up to AFL standard then he could be a great selection.

Apologies about missing Roughsedge, I've bumped you up to a B+, Evo is a fan so you're in good company.

Jack Payne had a shoulder issue so therefore Ballenden may have been swung into the D50 but there is no way in the wide world he will play there in the future, you only have the watch the NEAFL games to see where the Lions will play him.
If Richmond are considering Dixon I would be very concerned, but I doubt he will be drafted and will probably slide to the rookie draft unless the Crows like him as they seem to be keen on Tassie kids from what I hear. There's too much around next year to take him now as a spec player.

 

[bullus_hit]

Jack Payne had a shoulder issue so therefore Ballenden may have been swung into the D50 but there is no way in the wide world he will play there in the future, you only have the watch the NEAFL games to see where the Lions will play him.
If Richmond are considering Dixon I would be very concerned, but I doubt he will be drafted and will probably slide to the rookie draft unless the Crows like him as they seem to be keen on Tassie kids from what I hear. There's too much around next year to take him now as a spec player.

Dixon will be drafted, has been interviewed by multiple clubs including Richmond. Only query for me is his speed, 3.19sec/20m isn't flash, in fact it's identical to Lennon. I'd hope a bit of strength and conditioning work will get that around the 3.10 mark which would be acceptable. Josh Kennedy was drafted at pick 4 with a 3.15sec/20m, although it did take him 3 years to get going. With Dixon one has to take a long term view, my prediction will be somewhere in the 40-60 range.

As for Ballenden, I think he will be a swingman, his intercept marking is a strength and Brisbane will utilise that from time to time. If they go small at 15 & 17 I'd say Ballenden plays forward in the short term, if they grab Brander there's a good chance Ballenden moves to defence.

 

[bullus_hit]

NORTH MELBOURNE

4. Adam Cerra
23. Ed Richards
64. Jackson Ross
78. Jordan Butts
91. Stefan Giro

The two players I would be tossing up at pick 4 would be Stephenson & Cerra, the fact that Stephenson has been training with the Kangas makes me think he's their man but Cerra is one of the most rounded midfielders in the pool and this may appeal more than an outside runner. There's been a lot of comparisons with Pendlebury and I can see why, time slows down when Cerra has the ball, he's an elite decision maker and draws other players into the game. When I looked at his kicking efficiency it was lower than I expected but on closer inspection I realised one outlier had dragged his % down, largely due to appalling wet & windy conditions. This aside, the numbers correspond with the eye and I think Cerra will be one of those players who leads from the front.

At pick 23 North have opted for Ed Richards, I'm not totally against this choice but I would have taken Garner at this pick. Richards is more of a line breaker and has a bit more kicking penetration but Garner looks more composed under pressure. As for transitioning to the midfield, I'd have my money on Garner at this stage. Jackson Ross is a really good pick at 63, it's not often you get tennis converts but his form in the TAC has been really impressive. He's a difficult one to peg coming in at 193cm but could make it as a Tom Lynch (Crows) type forward. Consistency is an issue and I wouldn't expect him to debut in 2018 but the skill set is already evident. Jordan Butts is a key position propsect who has had some notable games at TAC level, coming in at 195cm he's a nice height but will need 2-3 preseasons to add bulk to his frame. Stefan Giro is a nice pick and a player I expect to go much higher. His form in the SANFL reserves has been immense and he can win the hardball despite his 175cm frame.

Grade: B+

 

[taztiger4]

Jack Payne had a shoulder issue so therefore Ballenden may have been swung into the D50 but there is no way in the wide world he will play there in the future, you only have the watch the NEAFL games to see where the Lions will play him.
If Richmond are considering Dixon I would be very concerned, but I doubt he will be drafted and will probably slide to the rookie draft unless the Crows like him as they seem to be keen on Tassie kids from what I hear. There's too much around next year to take him now as a spec player.

keen on tassie boys due to Hamish Ogilvie ?

 

[bullus_hit]

PORT ADELAIDE

46. Brodie Carroll
49. Jack Powell
59. Hamish Brayshaw
62. Matthew Day
63. Brent Daniels
86. Lindsay Thomas

At 46 the Power have taken the homegrown medium defender in Carroll, this pick seems solid given Carroll's testing was outstanding, his agility is elite, his tank is solid & he has a bit of dash. Having reserves experience will also put him in good stead for an AFL call-up. I'd probably say more 4th round to rookie at this stage but with Port having so many mid range picks anything could happen. At 49 Jack Powell gets the call up and will be a borderline selection in the main draft, he only had 3 clubs bite during the combine interviews and ran a sluggish sprint time so it will be a nervous wait. I do like his evasion and at times he reminds me of Sam Mitchell who also shares a similar athletic profile. Brayshaw at 59 seems a long shot, although his year was good I'm predicting clubs will hold back until the rookie draft. Being an over-ager will no doubt be a slight handicap. For what it's worth I felt he was incredibly stiff to miss out last year and deserves a shot. Matthew Day at 62 is a good pick and there's some chance he goes earlier than this, not having state exposure means he won't feature in the first two rounds but he's definitely one of the better inside mids who also tested quite well. Daniels is my favourite player from this batch and despite being 170cm could turn out to be a Ballantyne special. Agility and speed are top notch so I'm hoping he gets his chance. Lindsay Thomas is done as an AFL footballer, although I get the top-up madness going on at Port, this is just taking the Dad's Army approach one step too far.

Grade: C

 

[Tigers of Old]

Nice one bully. Appreciate the effort of the review & thanks for running the PD again. :thumbsup

 

[easy_tiger]

great read. good one Bully

 

[BrisTiger24]

I'm waiting with baited breath for my review from Bully. Takes me back to waiting for uni results!

 

[bullus_hit]

RICHMOND

12. Patrick Naish
20. Oscar Allen
25. Sam Hayes
53. Jackson Edwards
55. Charlie Ballard

Rookie - Joel Armatey

With Naish getting a bid at 12 Richmond were probably wondering if they were going to get their hands on one or both talls they have clear interest in. Missing out on Balta was a slight blow but having Allen available at 20 was just what the doctor ordered. I'm personally a big fan of Allen, I think his athleticism has been undersold by many draft watchers and he projects as a player who could be thrown anywhere on the park. Not only did he win a Larke medal but he hasn't missed a beat at senior level. Sam Hayes at 25 doesn't fill me with joy, his endurance was woeful and in my experience, onballers hitting the AFL with such a handicap tend to struggle. The biggest success stories are usually the man mountain types like Mumford & Darcy who naturally gain aerobic capacity through shedding weight. When faced with the reverse it can often be one step forward and two steps back. Hayes is definitely not a strongman type and will have to rely on superior athleticism, something which he clearly doesn't have at present. Some are predicting he'll become a key forward but even in this role his lack of work rate will become a liability.

At 53 we have Crow midfielder Jackson Edwards, this was more a revenge pick but is probably spot on in terms of where a bid will come. Edwards is still very light & very outside but the Crows will take him provided his name doesn't get called in the first two rounds. When stacked up against Naish I think he lacks a little hurt factor, whereas Patrick plays a high risk long kicking game, Edwards prefers his dinky short kicks. Ironically both players have been criticised for their respective game style which gives you some indication of the pressure these young kids face.

At pick 55 the Tigers have grabbed a bit of a bargain in Charlie Ballard, he's certainly a hard one to place because he's a 195cm wingman but I reckon clubs would be sizing him up as a Grant Birchall type. Don't think he'll fill out sufficiently for a key position role but with mids getting taller each year I'm confident he'll find a niche. At Richmond's last selection comes Joel Armatey who's claim to fame is shanking an easy shot after the siren in the TAC grand final. Prior to that he was actually one of the better players on the ground so it was a shame to see things unravel as they did. Difficult to know how recruiters will mark him but kicking a clutch goal helped Toby Pink get drafted the year prior.

Finally, just a small summary on our father son prospect Patrick Naish, I personally have him ranked at 21 which would be a reasonable result provided we get one or two talls with our earlier picks. Patrick has a host of achievements this year, he was an All Australian, featured in the TAC Cup team of the year, starred in the grand final curtain raiser and also performed well in the All-Stars game in 2016. His athletic profile is also pleasing, there's been plenty of speculation about his running but he recorded a 3.07sec/20m earlier in the year and his beep was 14 which is above average. Sometimes his kicking can unravel but with some astute coaching his long kicking game could be turned into a weapon.

Grade: B+

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Thanks Bullus

Personally with hindsight if Naish bid came later then things could have been very different

Sam Hayes selection was a mistake but thought i would go with a player that was rumoured to be in the 'richmond talk at the time and the news regarding his YoYo i wasnt aware of at the time.

Even though the Edwards selection was a revenge bid, Still think at that pick he is worth the selection and happy with that
Only change i would make now is Hayes out Taylor in at #25

thanks for your opinion and work

 

[Blind Turn]

RICHMOND

12. Patrick Naish
20. Oscar Allen
25. Sam Hayes
53. Jackson Edwards
55. Charlie Ballard

Rookie - Joel Armatey

With Naish getting a bid at 12 Richmond were probably wondering if they were going to get their hands on one or both talls they have clear interest in. Missing out on Balta was a slight blow but having Allen available at 20 was just what the doctor ordered. I'm personally a big fan of Allen, I think his athleticism has been undersold by many draft watchers and he projects as a player who could be thrown anywhere on the park. Not only did he win a Larke medal but he hasn't missed a beat at senior level. Sam Hayes at 25 doesn't fill me with joy, his endurance was woeful and in my experience, onballers hitting the AFL with such a handicap tend to struggle. The biggest success stories are usually the man mountain types like Mumford & Darcy who naturally gain aerobic capacity through shedding weight. When faced with the reverse it can often be one step forward and two steps back. Hayes is definitely not a strongman type and will have to rely on superior athleticism, something which he clearly doesn't have at present. Some are predicting he'll become a key forward but even in this role his lack of work rate will become a liability.

At 53 we have Crow midfielder Jackson Edwards, this was more a revenge pick but is probably spot on in terms of where a bid will come. Edwards is still very light & very outside but the Crows will take him provided his name doesn't get called in the first two rounds. When stacked up against Naish I think he lacks a little hurt factor, whereas Patrick plays a high risk long kicking game, Edwards prefers his dinky short kicks. Ironically both players have been criticised for their respective game style which gives you some indication of the pressure these young kids face.

At pick 55 the Tigers have grabbed a bit of a bargain in Charlie Ballard, he's certainly a hard one to place because he's a 195cm wingman but I reckon clubs would be sizing him up as a Grant Birchall type. Don't think he'll fill out sufficiently for a key position role but with mids getting taller each year I'm confident he'll find a niche. At Richmond's last selection comes Joel Armatey who's claim to fame is shanking an easy shot after the siren in the TAC grand final. Prior to that he was actually one of the better players on the ground so it was a shame to see things unravel as they did. Difficult to know how recruiters will mark him but kicking a clutch goal helped Toby Pink get drafted the year prior.

Finally, just a small summary on our father son prospect Patrick Naish, I personally have him ranked at 21 which would be a reasonable result provided we get one or two talls with our earlier picks. Patrick has a host of achievements this year, he was an All Australian, featured in the TAC Cup team of the year, starred in the grand final curtain raiser and also performed well in the All-Stars game in 2016. His athletic profile is also pleasing, there's been plenty of speculation about his running but he recorded a 3.07sec/20m earlier in the year and his beep was 14 which is above average. Sometimes his kicking can unravel but with some astute coaching his long kicking game could be turned into a weapon.

Grade: B+

Not sure If I'm talking out of school here but I spoke with our new ruck coach last night and his opinion is that they will be developing Chol as a forward/ruckman next year and that Hayes presents physically very much like him. All arms and legs. Suggests we are more likely to look at a combative, solid ruckman in the Nanks mould.
One point of interest is that he suggested that in his opinion we have plenty of talls. I reminded him that most of them were barely of VFL standard and he gave me a wry smirk

 

[bullus_hit]

Not sure If I'm talking out of school here but I spoke with our new ruck coach last night and his opinion is that they will be developing Chol as a forward/ruckman next year and that Hayes presents physically very much like him. All arms and legs. Suggests we are more likely to look at a combative, solid ruckman in the Nanks mould.
One point of interest is that he suggested that in his opinion we have plenty of talls. I reminded him that most of them were barely of VFL standard and he gave me a wry smirk

Lloyd Meek is the one I'd be sizing up as late/rookie pick. I've always pushed for Chol becoming a forward/ruck, his leap is outstanding. As a best case scenario Hayes will take 3 years to make an impact.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Not sure If I'm talking out of school here but I spoke with our new ruck coach last night and his opinion is that they will be developing Chol as a forward/ruckman next year and that Hayes presents physically very much like him. All arms and legs. Suggests we are more likely to look at a combative, solid ruckman in the Nanks mould.
One point of interest is that he suggested that in his opinion we have plenty of talls. I reminded him that most of them were barely of VFL standard and he gave me a wry smirk

Just a point of interest regarding the ruck talent. Article in today's Hun was again pushing the line that the bounce will be wiped out within two years n it'll be pure basketball type tip off in future, no more bounce. Why would any club be considering combative physical type rucks when it's going to be all about long tall pelicans that can jump n tap?

 

[Tigerdog]

Not sure If I'm talking out of school here but I spoke with our new ruck coach last night and his opinion is that they will be developing Chol as a forward/ruckman next year and that Hayes presents physically very much like him. All arms and legs. Suggests we are more likely to look at a combative, solid ruckman in the Nanks mould.
One point of interest is that he suggested that in his opinion we have plenty of talls. I reminded him that most of them were barely of VFL standard and he gave me a wry smirk

Part of the problem with Chol playing forward is that he runs under the ball so often and can't seem to judge it in flight. I'd be very surprised if he ever makes it. That's what rookie spots are all about though, speculative but worth a shot. Hope I am proven wrong but he is coming from a long way back.


BTW Thanks Bully, Scoop, Gus, Tails and co for all your insights into the kids, makes for great off season reading every year.

 

[bullus_hit]

ST KILDA

7. Darcy Fogarty
8. Aaron Naughton
34. Cassidy Parish
45. Nathan Kreuger

Darcy Fogarty, if he slips this far would be a great pick for the Saints. With Riewoldt now in retirement some more firepower needs to be injected into the forward line and Fogarty could be anything. By his own standards he's had a shizen year, particularly given many had him in the equation as a potential number one but a lot of that form loss could be attributed to meniscus issues which have hampered him all year. One plus that's emerged is Fogarty is now 193cm which places him alongside Wooller & McCartin as an undersized key position prospect. When stacked up against those two I think he's a far more exciting package, his agility makes him dangerous at ground level and he's not afraid to have a gallop if the moment arises. Whilst his tank is still a work in progress he possesses good speed for his size and his core body strength makes him very difficult to tackle. His marking is also exceptional & he often uses his leap to counter taller defenders. If I were to come up with a comparison I'd say Jake Stringer but it wouldn't be out of the question for him to add 10kg to his frame and nail down a Tex Walker type role.

At pick 8 I think the Sainters have reached and would have been better targeting a midfielder here. I can see why people like Naughton, he's tall, athletic and possesses good closing speed which is a prerequisite for key defenders. In my opinion he's an athlete wanting to become a footballer and with that comes significant risk. First of all the mechanics of his kicking action are really frustrating to watch and it will take some serious remedial work to achieve any fluency, the end result is usually a loopy kick which creates unnecessary pressure downfield. This may not have been so pronounced at junior level due to the anti-density rule but it won't be so easy to avoid once he steps up to AFL. I get the fact he's played ok in the SANFL seniors but poor kicks usually get found out at the highest level.

Cassidy Parish comes in at 34 but for me he's a late to rookie pick. Just looking at the fact Oscar Clavarino went the pick after I really feel as though the Saints could have left the key position defender requirements to this pick, as opposed to pick 8. A combination of Bonar & Clavarino seems much better than Naughton & Parish, this I believe will be entirely feasible in the real deal. At 48 Nathan Kreuger is a nice speculative pick with some good upisde, this is about the time one can look at bringing in the tall athletic types who need to bring in some consistency to their game. Whilst I don't believe Kreuger will ever make it as a key position player he may well find a role as a third tall swingman.

Grade: B-

 

[Blind Turn]

Just a point of interest regarding the ruck talent. Article in today's Hun was again pushing the line that the bounce will be wiped out within two years n it'll be pure basketball type tip off in future, no more bounce. Why would any club be considering combative physical type rucks when it's going to be all about long tall pelicans that can jump n tap?

One thing I've learnt since we won the Premiership this year.
The club knows better than me.
Should we fall outside the top 4 in the future, I'll be back with a pocket full of opinions

 

[TigerMasochist]

One thing I've learnt since we won the Premiership this year.
The club knows better than me.
Should we fall outside the top 4 in the future, I'll be back with a pocket full of opinions

Doubt there was too many of us within the club or hovering around the outside had any idea we'd win the flag this year, even the most optimistic ( one or two mad keen ferals excepted ) wouldn't have had us achieving better than stumbling into the four somehow.
No doubt we'll fall out of the top four some time in the future, it's simply the nature of the beast. Everyone will obviously have opinions, just like every other time. None of them will make much difference though.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Lloyd Meek is the one I'd be sizing up as late/rookie pick. I've always pushed for Chol becoming a forward/ruck, his leap is outstanding. As a best case scenario Hayes will take 3 years to make an impact.

Its amazing how different people see things differently even though they respect each others views and opinions, To me i personally see Chol more as a backman relief Ruck than a foward

Chol has the height speed leap and athleticism but lacks the ability to read the play or create the play and thats why he presents better as a backman that goes to the incoming rather than create the ball to come to him.

But i would be over the moon if he becomes a foward that can dominate