OUR LIST FOR 2023

[graystar1]

Read this and be in positive territory

Tigers’ list in good shape for the now and the future

To suggest it’s a case of all or nothing for Richmond in 2023 is way off the mark.

www.richmondfc.com.au

 

[The Big Richo]

That's a nice piece of propaganda from Big Tone, but you could drive a truck through the holes in it.

Fact is we have loaded up on our current list to try and contend again rather than use a reasonable draft hand to continue to regenerate, and the main reason for that is that under 25 team isn't winning a flag ever.

I'm all for the strategy, but also worried we are showing too much faith in our champions to be able to produce again.

Ultimately the proof is in the pudding in this business though, top 4 is the minimum for the next two or three years, otherwise it's a bust.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

I'm all for the strategy, but also worried we are showing too much faith in our champions to be able to produce again.

And so we should , Players like Cotchin , Dusty , Riewoldt , Grimes , Tarrant , Lynch dont come around too often all at the same time
Even though they are all older the talent is there and never under estimate the will to win and how deep these elite players can dig in to get it done. Geelong's older players proved that last season and with good management got it done.

Taranto/Hopper were the perfect fit at the perfect time
They are both 25/26 and have 5/6 more years in their prime coming in at a time where we will eventually be losing Prestia/Cotchin/Dusty
and fit the age group of the next tier of Richmond Champions.

Teams that bottom out these days have to gut the list to get top picks in the hope of getting it right and 'Maybe' being good enough to be in a premiership window. Carlton are the perfect example with their 66 game rebuild under SOS which started 2014 draft
8 years now and they still have not made finals.

North/Hawks have gone that path now lets see how that goes

 

[caesar]

Taranto/Hopper were the perfect fit at the perfect time
They are both 25/26 and have 5/6 more years in their prime coming in at a time where we will eventually be losing Prestia/Cotchin/Dusty
and fit the age group of the next tier of Richmond Champions.

Agree, exactly the right move, to me we have taken the risk out of the equation, we were going nowhere without these midfield inclusions in 2023, an immediate fix to a glaring weakness.

Even the posters who get fixated on winning the points in a trade, (i don't), we are technically ahead.

Selling The Farm, (Pfft!)

Tarranto:

Out
Pick 12 = 1,268 points
Pick 19 = 948 points
Total : 2,216 points

In
Former pick 2 ,(=2,517 points), and bona fide star at the peak of his powers who in hindsight has warranted his lofty selection in the 2016 draft with McGrath and McCluggage selected either side of him.

Hopper :

Out
Future pick 16, (if say we finish 3rd), = 1,067 points
Pick 31 = 606 points
Total : 1,673 points

In
Former pick 7, (=1,644 points), once again a proven performer with some preferring him to Tarranto, (looking back, 2015 was a quality draft Carlton killed that draft with Weitering 1, Harry McKay 10 and Charlie Curnow 12, (luckily no Flag yet). Whereas Brisbane selected Josh Sache at 2 and Essendon Aaron Francis at 6 which shows drafting has its own risks and no guarantees.
Pick 53 = 233 points
Pick 63 = 112 points
Total 1,989 points

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Agree, exactly the right move, to me we have taken the risk out of the equation, we were going nowhere without these midfield inclusions in 2023, an immediate fix to a glaring weakness.

Even the posters who get fixated on winning the points in a trade, (i don't), we are technically ahead.

Selling The Farm, (Pfft!)

Tarranto:

Out
Pick 12 = 1,268 points
Pick 19 = 948 points
Total : 2,216 points

In
Former pick 2 ,(=2,517 points), and bona fide star at the peak of his powers who in hindsight has warranted his lofty selection in the 2016 draft with McGrath and McCluggage selected either side of him.

Hopper :

Out
Future pick 16, (if say we finish 3rd), = 1,067 points
Pick 31 = 606 points
Total : 1,673 points

In
Former pick 7, (=1,644 points), once again a proven performer with some preferring him to Tarranto, (looking back, 2015 was a quality draft Carlton killed that draft with Weitering 1, Harry McKay 10 and Charlie Curnow 12, (luckily no Flag yet). Whereas Brisbane selected Josh Sache at 2 and Essendon Aaron Francis at 6 which shows drafting has its own risks and no guarantees.
Pick 53 = 233 points
Pick 63 = 112 points
Total 1,989 points

And this points values are before where our picks actually end up
#12 could be #14 and #19 could end up #21/#22 pick #31 will end up #35

For me the Taranto / Hopper trade stops us from bottoming out and keeping us in a window giving Hope to players like Balta , Baker , Bolton , Gibcus , Sonsie etc hope of winning a flag and also fills the void of leadership once Jack,Cotchin etc retire

 

[RoarEmotion]

Agree, exactly the right move, to me we have taken the risk out of the equation, we were going nowhere without these midfield inclusions in 2023, an immediate fix to a glaring weakness.

Even the posters who get fixated on winning the points in a trade, (i don't), we are technically ahead.

Selling The Farm, (Pfft!)

Tarranto:

Out
Pick 12 = 1,268 points
Pick 19 = 948 points
Total : 2,216 points

In
Former pick 2 ,(=2,517 points), and bona fide star at the peak of his powers who in hindsight has warranted his lofty selection in the 2016 draft with McGrath and McCluggage selected either side of him.

Hopper :

Out
Future pick 16, (if say we finish 3rd), = 1,067 points
Pick 31 = 606 points
Total : 1,673 points

In
Former pick 7, (=1,644 points), once again a proven performer with some preferring him to Tarranto, (looking back, 2015 was a quality draft Carlton killed that draft with Weitering 1, Harry McKay 10 and Charlie Curnow 12, (luckily no Flag yet). Whereas Brisbane selected Josh Sache at 2 and Essendon Aaron Francis at 6 which shows drafting has its own risks and no guarantees.
Pick 53 = 233 points
Pick 63 = 112 points
Total 1,989 points

I like this analysis with the caveats that you can't put points against.

1. Tarranto and Hopper are known quantities, draftees aren't. So from this perspective they are MORE valuable than just the point itself - given they will outperform the average return for that number of points
2. Tarrant and Hopper are older than a draftee - so the amount of value under the curve is smaller, than if you picked the equivalent player to them - this makes them LESS valuable than just the points itself.
So many arguments are about 1 vs 2
3. It depends on what you are trying to achieve - we are going for flags RIGHT NOW and this fits our demographic - so a massive tick that makes these players massively valuable - without them our chance at a flag in the next few years seems slim and with them seems strong. Triple the points value to us.

 

[year of the tiger]

And this points values are before where our picks actually end up
#12 could be #14 and #19 could end up #21/#22 pick #31 will end up #35

For me the Taranto / Hopper trade stops us from bottoming out and keeping us in a window giving Hope to players like Balta , Baker , Bolton , Gibcus , Sonsie etc hope of winning a flag and also fills the void of leadership once Jack,Cotchin etc retire

yep totally agree plus our young players develop or refine their top end skills by being exposed to multiple finals - it’s the fastest way to fast track talent. This strategy, if it keeps us in the top 8 or 4 does that and accelerates the development of our youth.

 

[Brodders17]

That's a nice piece of propaganda from Big Tone, but you could drive a truck through the holes in it.

Fact is we have loaded up on our current list to try and contend again rather than use a reasonable draft hand to continue to regenerate, and the main reason for that is that under 25 team isn't winning a flag ever.

I'm all for the strategy, but also worried we are showing too much faith in our champions to be able to produce again.

Ultimately the proof is in the pudding in this business though, top 4 is the minimum for the next two or three years, otherwise it's a bust.

i dont reckon any club would have a current list of 25yo and under who are going to be a flag winning side.
we will continue to add youngsters, even if not early this draft or next, and we will continue to have stars playing into their 30s.
Our flag window will stay open for at least another 5 years.

 

[DavidSSS]

The idea is clearly to balance what we can achieve now - ageing stars who can still deliver along with some players traded in; with young players we are developing and a few who are early 20s already showing they are very good at AFL level.

It is tricky but I don't reckon they are looking at just trying to win a flag in the next couple of years, they are looking at staying near the top for the long term. The club would have been planning the Tarranto and Hopper recruitments at least a couple of years ago and deliberately went for a big pile of young draft pics last year to balance the picks we lose trading players in.

How else can you try to stay near the top? Even Geelong would have to admit they haven't been able to really balance everything, hence the list getting older. Geelong have brought in a fair number of players but that has made it hard to bring in younger players and those they do get have trouble getting into the firsts.

I reckon we're having a fair crack at staying near the top. It may all fall in a heap in 5 years when the likes of Martin, Lynch etc retire and we don't have enough quality to replace them. But we are trying to get the quality in to replace the stars of the last few years.

DS

 

[Jonesracing82]

Agree, exactly the right move, to me we have taken the risk out of the equation, we were going nowhere without these midfield inclusions in 2023, an immediate fix to a glaring weakness.

Even the posters who get fixated on winning the points in a trade, (i don't), we are technically ahead.

Selling The Farm, (Pfft!)

Tarranto:

Out
Pick 12 = 1,268 points
Pick 19 = 948 points
Total : 2,216 points

In
Former pick 2 ,(=2,517 points), and bona fide star at the peak of his powers who in hindsight has warranted his lofty selection in the 2016 draft with McGrath and McCluggage selected either side of him.

Hopper :

Out
Future pick 16, (if say we finish 3rd), = 1,067 points
Pick 31 = 606 points
Total : 1,673 points

In
Former pick 7, (=1,644 points), once again a proven performer with some preferring him to Tarranto, (looking back, 2015 was a quality draft Carlton killed that draft with Weitering 1, Harry McKay 10 and Charlie Curnow 12, (luckily no Flag yet). Whereas Brisbane selected Josh Sache at 2 and Essendon Aaron Francis at 6 which shows drafting has its own risks and no guarantees.
Pick 53 = 233 points
Pick 63 = 112 points
Total 1,989 points

Hasn't Francis fallen, he was the next big thing 3 yrs ago.

Just on our trade moves there's 2 ways to look at it. 1, our mids we drafted haven't come on so we needed to trade to fill the need as u mention. Also if we were to bottom out, by the time we reach ground 0 we'll be in another expansion era like last time. Clubs have worked out that nowadays bottoming out takes far too long to recover from, do that & we'd lose Bolton etc to Clubs with a chance of contending in the coming yrs. After our off season we are still 1 of those sides in the mix for success.

 

[achillesjones]

I have no doubt that we will peak in 2023. We are due for a good season with injuries. We need to manage players if we can, to have them fit in September.

 

[TrialByVideo]

I have no doubt that we will peak in 2023. We are due for a good season with injuries. We need to manage players if we can, to have them fit in September.

Just on that.... did I miss who's taken over from Burge?

 

[mrposhman]

The idea is clearly to balance what we can achieve now - ageing stars who can still deliver along with some players traded in; with young players we are developing and a few who are early 20s already showing they are very good at AFL level.

It is tricky but I don't reckon they are looking at just trying to win a flag in the next couple of years, they are looking at staying near the top for the long term. The club would have been planning the Tarranto and Hopper recruitments at least a couple of years ago and deliberately went for a big pile of young draft pics last year to balance the picks we lose trading players in.

How else can you try to stay near the top? Even Geelong would have to admit they haven't been able to really balance everything, hence the list getting older. Geelong have brought in a fair number of players but that has made it hard to bring in younger players and those they do get have trouble getting into the firsts.

I reckon we're having a fair crack at staying near the top. It may all fall in a heap in 5 years when the likes of Martin, Lynch etc retire and we don't have enough quality to replace them. But we are trying to get the quality in to replace the stars of the last few years.

DS

Yeah I agree. I think we are trying to break the mould. The old mould was, be good, then fall away, go the bottom and rebuild. Minimum usually takes at least 10 years.

We are trying to take the best things that others do, and mould it to us. Take Geelong, yes some will say we are copying them, and I think we are in some ways, we are looking to bring those premium players in that we don't have access to in the draft via trade (hence Taranto / Hopper and even looking back to Prestia / Lynch), but we aren't really looking at those trade options like Geelong have done over the last few years unless they are essentially draft neutral (like Tarrant).

We haven't gone and shelled out picks on players like Higgins, Tuohy, Rohan, etc. We would rather give kids a go in these "role" positions but we are trading for the more elite positions. Free agency we might be a similar, though we really haven't used free agency a lot (bar Lynch), but I think the strategy seems to be, use our draft picks to trade in those quality players that we don't have access to with our draft hand, but then take the rest of our picks to the draft and build the list around those top players that we have drafted in.

Nobody else has really followed this strategy, Carlton have tried but its been a much more scatter gun approach than ours. We have targeted a small number of players, they seem to have gone out acting like a horny 17 year old and going after anything with a pulse hence why they have so many players on their list that started at other clubs.

 

[The Big Richo]

i dont reckon any club would have a current list of 25yo and under who are going to be a flag winning side.
we will continue to add youngsters, even if not early this draft or next, and we will continue to have stars playing into their 30s.
Our flag window will stay open for at least another 5 years.

5 years would be a remarkable effort if we achieved it, unprecedented in the history of the game.

Even more so given in that period we would likely have to replace the talent of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert, Lynch, Martin, Pickett, Prestia, Tarrant and potentially Broad, McIntosh and Vlastuin.

Going to be a spectacular list regeneration if we can pull it off from a position of contending.

 

[caesar]

5 years would be a remarkable effort if we achieved it, unprecedented in the history of the game.

Even more so given in that period we would likely have to replace the talent of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert, Lynch, Martin, Pickett, Prestia, Tarrant and potentially Broad, McIntosh and Vlastuin.

Going to be a spectacular list regeneration if we can pull it off from a position of contending.

Yep, reckon window only extends to 2-3 years with inclusions and then they form the basis for whatever comes next.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Yep, reckon window only extends to 2-3 years with inclusions and then they form the basis for whatever comes next.

Kind of agree but id we get say Himmelberg next year as a free agent and some of our kids like HRS,Sonsie,Banks,Brown,Juddy,Biggy,Ryan
takes the next step and fills in some holes that Grimes/Tarrant may create i think its possible to go longer

 

[artball]

The idea is clearly to balance what we can achieve now

in a nutshell ..

and in part a contingency plan:

A contingency plan is a course of action designed to help an organization respond effectively to a significant future incident, event or situation that may or may not happen.

this being the young guys / draftees and the older blokes ..

really smart to get Hopper and Taranto and the other clubs know it

 

[mrposhman]

5 years would be a remarkable effort if we achieved it, unprecedented in the history of the game.

Even more so given in that period we would likely have to replace the talent of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert, Lynch, Martin, Pickett, Prestia, Tarrant and potentially Broad, McIntosh and Vlastuin.

Going to be a spectacular list regeneration if we can pull it off from a position of contending.

Our regeneration strategy will be over a number of years. Of those that you have mentioned:

Cotchin - Essentially replaced by Hopper going forwards
Riewoldt - probably the biggest concern. Club may be confident on Ryan / Bauer
Grimes -
Lambert - Barely played last year so essentially already replaced in our team. Had a few things gone right last year we would have finished top 4. Bakes / Clarke / Short already in this position
Edwards - Similar to Lambert, hos dynamism in midfield was not there last year. Reckon will be replaced by the Sonz
Lynch - Similar to Jack, the biggest concern on our list, will play at least another 3 years so we have some time
Martin - Mid minutes probably replaced somewhat by TT, will play forward and IMO will play at least another 3 years. Shai has already replaced some of his dynamism through the midfield
Pickett - A fit enough 30 year old. Will play at least another 2 years, we have HRS and Banks on the list that will hopefully be ready to take over
Prestia - Will play a few more years yet, so this ones a wait and see
Tarrant - Will probably be replaced by Miller in that stopper role
Broad - A role we need to fill, but hopefully do something similar to when we got Broad (latish pick). Reckon Broad has at least another 3 years in him though
McIntosh - See Pickett, but still got a good 2-3 years in him
Vlastuin - Could easily play another 5 years, we have Brown in the 2's, he could come in for Broad or Vlastuin when needed, but I don't see Vlastuins as an imperative one we need to fill right away

So in summary, the Hopper / TT trades have enabled us to replace a few already. The 2 biggest questions are Jack and Lynch, key components to the team absolutely, but we don't know what the teams plans are to replace them just yet. Potentially they have Himmelberg or Marshall lined up to come in as free agents either end of 23 or 24. We do plan way out, so its a distinct likelihood that we are looking at these replacements already and have planned ahead.

Personally I think we are playing this very well. Rejevunating with very good players when we don't have access to those high draft picks, target those that have slid in the draft (like Sonsie and hopefully Lemmey / Scully this year) with the aim to iron out the issues as to why they slid. Most of the players you mention will play at least another 3 years anyway so we are restocking now to take us forward into the next 3 years.

IMO, we will rotate between drafting and taking players via trade, whilst also using free agency occasionally where possible (reckon we are already targeting someone like Marshall as a FA at the end of 2024).

 

[Scoop]

5 years would be a remarkable effort if we achieved it, unprecedented in the history of the game.

Even more so given in that period we would likely have to replace the talent of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert, Lynch, Martin, Pickett, Prestia, Tarrant and potentially Broad, McIntosh and Vlastuin.

Going to be a spectacular list regeneration if we can pull it off from a position of contending.

You could point to any list and do the same thing. Every single top four side from 2022 will need to replace their best players in five years.

Look at Geelong, they've shifted thinking. This is your area TBR, sports science is prolonging every sport across the board. Look at what Novak, Federer, Nadal, Messi, Ronaldo, Brady, Lebron are doing. They are the elite of the elite performing well into their 30s. I read that the average age of the Champions League soccer team moved from 24.9 in 1992 to 26.5 in 2019. 1.5 years mightn't sound like a lot but when the average peak performance is from 23-29 it's a massive shift. Geelong just won a flag easily with the OLDEST SIDE TO EVER PLAY A GAME. The movement is happening.

We contend at least for the next two years. We've been creative, got more talent in. I've spruked on here for years, generation are built from getting three or four core footballers out of one draft. Blokes that play together in finals. We got Lambert, Short, Castanga and Soldo from one rookie draft. We took five players inside 30 last year. I reckon we've got two banked. Gibcus & Sonsie. Maybe Clarke. Need to get another one out of Banks or Brown. I think most have had contracts extended. There is a truckload of internal faith being shown. If we don't have that faith, not sure we go after both lads from GWS.

That's a nice piece of propaganda from Big Tone, but you could drive a truck through the holes in it.

Fact is we have loaded up on our current list to try and contend again rather than use a reasonable draft hand to continue to regenerate, and the main reason for that is that under 25 team isn't winning a flag ever.

Look at the side that Hopper & Taranto just left. There's never been an under 25 more stacked with talent positioned to win a flag. They didn't get one. Made one grand final and got murdered.

In a league getting older and older, under 25 means less and less. Projecting forward over more than three years is virtually impossible.

 

[Brodders17]

5 years would be a remarkable effort if we achieved it, unprecedented in the history of the game.

Even more so given in that period we would likely have to replace the talent of Cotchin, Riewoldt, Edwards, Grimes, Lambert, Lynch, Martin, Pickett, Prestia, Tarrant and potentially Broad, McIntosh and Vlastuin.

Going to be a spectacular list regeneration if we can pull it off from a position of contending.

5 years might be pushing it a little, but i reckon we contend as long as Lynch plays, which will probably be another 4-5 years.
After that it depends who replaces him.