Melbourne Property Market

[TIGEREXTRA]

I've always found this graph a fairly reliable medium term predictor. If the stock on the market continues to fall in Jan and Feb I suspect we will be in for a fairly positive year.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic%3A%3AMelbourne&type=c&t=1

So how do I look at this graph?

If the number of property (stock) on the market lowers then that would mean house prices would slightly stay the same/improve?

If the graph keeps trending upwards then there is too much stock and not enough sellers so value's go down, is that right?

Sorry, Noob here.

 

[evo]

So how do I look at this graph?

If the number of property (stock) on the market lowers then that would mean house prices would slightly stay the same/improve?

If the graph keeps trending upwards then there is too much stock and not enough sellers so value's go down, is that right?

Sorry, Noob here.

Yes, if you want property to go up you want to see supply drop - ideally back to something like April 09 levels. That's when you start to see the frenzied bidding at oauctions and prices rallying 15 or 20 % in a few months as they did back then.'

It is early days but it looks to me like supply has peaked and is slowly moving down. It would be nice now to see a measured decline over the next four or five months to confirm.Anyway, something to watch if you are interested in property speculation. It is the best leading indicator that I've come accross.

I notice there was another doom and gloom article in the age today. That also leads me to suspect the worst is well behind us. Journalists always get the most pesimistically shrill at the bottom.It is the same in the stock market. I think the article was entitled something like Worst year for property since the 90s! or somethingl ike that..When you read the article it says that prices fell massive 2.9%.....ooooohhhh ooga booga, the end of the world is nigh.

 

[Brodders17]

Yes, if you want property to go up you want to see supply drop - ideally back to something like April 09 levels. That's when you start to see the frenzied bidding at oauctions and prices rallying 15 or 20 % in a few months as they did back then.'

It is early days but it looks to me like supply has peaked and is slowly moving down. It would be nice now to see a measured decline over the next four or five months to confirm.Anyway, something to watch if you are interested in property speculation. It is the best leading indicator that I've come accross.

I notice there was another doom and gloom article in the age today. That also leads me to suspect the worst is well behind us. Journalists always get the most pesimistically shrill at the bottom.It is the same in the stock market. I think the article was entitled something like Worst year for property since the 90s! or somethingl ike that..When you read the article it says that prices fell massive 2.9%.....ooooohhhh ooga booga, the end of the world is nigh.

ooga booga?? :hihi

 

[evo]

It is interesting to me that the RBA again dropped rates today. Does anyone else sense that they are now getting serious about kicking a new property rally into gear?

As I've mentioned in previous posts, the 'supply' graph has traditionally been a good leading indicator of an impending rally.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic%3A%3AMelbourne&type=c&t=1

So far the market is still somewhat flooded. Really intrigued to see where it goes from here.

 

[tigersnake]

It is interesting to me that the RBA again dropped rates today. Does anyone else sense that they are now getting serious about kicking a new property rally into gear?

As I've mentioned in previous posts, the 'supply' graph has traditionally been a good leading indicator of an impending rally.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic%3A%3AMelbourne&type=c&t=1

So far the market is still somewhat flooded. Really intrigued to see where it goes from here.

More sideways is my hunch.

 

[Dyer'ere]

It is interesting to me that the RBA again dropped rates today. Does anyone else sense that they are now getting serious about kicking a new property rally into gear?

As I've mentioned in previous posts, the 'supply' graph has traditionally been a good leading indicator of an impending rally.

http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/graph_stock_on_market.php?region=vic%3A%3AMelbourne&type=c&t=1

So far the market is still somewhat flooded. Really intrigued to see where it goes from here.

Flooded, evo? If you're right there's only one way prices can go. Lotta properties around. Is it a flood? Lotta flats going up in my town (Brunswick). I think it was 1000 odd in a year. More on the way. I'm inclined to wait ATM.

 

[evo]

yes, no real rush at the minute. There a few signs of a bit of recovery but it is very tepid. Clearance rates are increasing but there is still a lot of stock available.

 

[Ian4]

i bought a property a month ago in coburg. i personally think i got a bargain (although i guess most would think that).

 

[poppa x]

i bought a property a month ago in coburg. i personally think i got a bargain (although i guess most would think that).

The seller probably thought he/she did alright too or you wouldn't have been able to buy it at the sale price.

 

[B1 and B2]

i bought a property a month ago in coburg. i personally think i got a bargain (although i guess most would think that).

Welcome to the fabulous City of Moreland!

B1

 

[tigertim]

Stumbled across this old thread.

Melbourne property prices going nuts. I bought an investment property in Bonbeach 5 years ago and have just sold it.

Doubled in price. Just nuts.

 

[tigersnake]

Stumbled across this old thread.

Melbourne property prices going nuts. I bought an investment property in Bonbeach 5 years ago and have just sold it.

Doubled in price. Just nuts.

wow, good get Tim. 5 years ago was the sweet spot, and it's hard to see a whole lot more growth in the short to medium term, so you have pretty much optimized the *smile* out of it. It is nuts, here in Bris is semi-nuts, Melb is nuts, Sydney is rocking back and forth in a straight jacket nuts.

 

[tigertim]

wow, good get Tim. 5 years ago was the sweet spot, and it's hard to see a whole lot more growth in the short to medium term, so you have pretty much optimized the sh!t out of it. It is nuts, here in Bris is semi-nuts, Melb is nuts, Sydney is rocking back and forth in a straight jacket nuts.

Yeah, in fact the value of the house barely did anything for the first 2 years so most of the growth occurred from 2014-2017.

 

[Scoop]

Stumbled across this old thread.

Melbourne property prices going nuts. I bought an investment property in Bonbeach 5 years ago and have just sold it.

Doubled in price. Just nuts.

Yeah I did similar about 8 years ago, grabbed a few bayside and they've all doubled or at least 70% growth.

The entire Frankston line has gone nuts over that time.

 

[tigertim]

Yeah I did similar about 8 years ago, grabbed a few bayside and they've all doubled or at least 70% growth.

The entire Frankston line has gone nuts over that time.

Yep, can barely get in under $1m in Bonbeach and Carrum to a lesser extent. Seaford high 800's/900's and Frankston in the 700's.

 

[ThePercies]

i bought a property a month ago in coburg. i personally think i got a bargain (although i guess most would think that).

You still got this one, Ian4 ?

Interesting to see how much coburg has risen in the last 4 years?

 

[MD Jazz]

Hopefully a government will have the balls to do something about the obscene benefits afforded to investment property buyers.

 

[tigertim]

Hopefully a government will have the balls to do something about the obscene benefits afforded to investment property buyers.

Why obscene benefits are you referring to?

 

[tigersnake]

Hopefully a government will have the balls to do something about the obscene benefits afforded to investment property buyers.

agree. Negative gearing is dumb. Everyone with a brain knows it. The Libs won't do anything though because their powerbase benefit.

I don't blame people for doing it, I've done it, but its dumb law. At the very least it has to be wound back. Every dry economist says so.

 

[tigersnake]

Yeah I did similar about 8 years ago, grabbed a few bayside and they've all doubled or at least 70% growth.

The entire Frankston line has gone nuts over that time.

as Tim said, most or all of that 70% happened in the last 3.5 years. I bought my place in '11. Prices went down for two years before they spiked. 28% in 6 years, but if I'd bought 2 years later it would have been 45% in 3.5 years. Not as spectacular as bayside Melb, but good. I'm not whinging though.

big spike in 2000-03, crab sideways or slightly up until 2013, then another big spike. I think Tim you nailed the timing.