Global Warming

[Azza]

I think their use of the current disaster is appalling in terms of its timing.
Peoples houses are burning. Lives have been lost. Thousands of animals dead or injured. Exhausted Fire Fighters with worse expected tomorrow.
But no - let's use it to make a political point.
Sorry. their "cause" may be valid, but their timing is shocking.

I guess they think the future impact of many such fires and worse under global warming makes it worth making the point, given the tendency for people to bury their heads in the sand over the issue.

 

[Azza]

I guess they think the future impact of many such fires and worse under global warming makes it worth making the point, given the tendency for people to bury their heads in the sand over the issue.

QED

Excuse my ignorance, but what caused the bushfires of - 1851, 1898, 1926, 1938-39, 1944, 1951-52, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1985 etc?

 

[Brodders17]

Excuse my ignorance, but what caused the bushfires of - 1851, 1898, 1926, 1938-39, 1944, 1951-52, 1955, 1961, 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1985 etc?

We're any if those fires as bad as these? Or in October?
Serious questions. I certainly don't know the answers.

Anyway, The 'experts' aren't saying climate change caused these fires or any other recent disasters. What they suggest is that the changing climate will cause conditions that make events like these more likely.

 

[This Is Anfield]

QED

So no factors other than global warming impact on bushfires in Australia? Is that what you are saying by your rather dismissive post.

What future impact will the constant refusal of local councils & governments to back burn have?

Is everthing so black & white in your world that genuine questions & opinions are treated with such contempt?

 

[Azza]

So no factors other than global warming impact on bushfires in Australia? Is that what you are saying by your rather dismissive post.

What future impact will the constant refusal of local councils & governments to back burn have?

Is everthing so black & white in your world that genuine questions & opinions are treated with such contempt?

I apologise since it was such a genuine question. Here's the answer to your question on what causes bushfires.

http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/bushfire/bushfire-basics/causes.html

 

[This Is Anfield]

We're any if those fires as bad as these? Or in October?
Serious questions. I certainly don't know the answers.

Anyway, The 'experts' aren't saying climate change caused these fires or any other recent disasters. What they suggest is that the changing climate will cause conditions that make events like these more likely.

Sorry Brodders, I was typing (slowly) my previous post while you posted.
I was living in Geelong during Ash Wednesday & happened to be playing pool in the Corio Hotel at lunchtime ;D & no joke it was like the Sun had been removed from the sky.
We went to Anglesea the next weekend & everything was black - frightening.

As for conditions worsening, you could be right & probably are.
I'm not an academic (left after form 5 & have zero tertiary qualifications) & can only relate to issues as they affect me.
I also feel that Global Warming is probably not the most pressing problem the world faces at the moment (but that's for another time).

I may be accused of sitting on the fence on some issues but sometimes I think that if you sit on the fence at least you can see what's on both sides of the fence.
Some are so far left & some are so far right that they can't even see the bloody fence!
I digressed a bit, but hey it's off my chest. ;D

 

[This Is Anfield]

I apologise since it was such a genuine question. Here's the answer to your question on what causes bushfires.

http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/bushfire/bushfire-basics/causes.html

And that was such a genuine apology.

I don't pretend to be as well educated or as intellectual as you Azza & my fires inside have been doused somewhat by time & family responsibilities.
Pragmatism over idealism I suppose.

Lots of grey in my world!

 

[Azza]

And that was such a genuine apology.

I don't pretend to be as well educated or as intellectual as you Azza & my fires inside have been doused somewhat by time & family responsibilities.
Pragmatism over idealism I suppose.

Lots of grey in my world!

I'm not sure what the problem is. In response to poppa I said the concern was that fires activity would increase under global warming - the same answer as Brodders gave. You then asked what the causes of earlier fires were, implying that in some way refuted the global warming point. So I used your response to illustrate how people are ignoring the impact of global warning on fire weather. You then posted you didn't think global warming was a pressing problem, just illustrating my point further.

I think it odd that people thing global warming is a left v right issue.

 

[This Is Anfield]

I'm not sure what the problem is. In response to poppa I said the concern was that fires activity would increase under global warming - the same answer as Brodders gave. You then asked what the causes of earlier fires were, implying that in some way refuted the global warming point. So I used your response to illustrate how people are ignoring the impact of global warning on fire weather. You then posted you didn't think global warming was a pressing problem, just illustrating my point further.

I think it odd that people thing global warming is a left v right issue.

OK, of course you make very valid points - I perhaps overreacted as I felt you were being a touch insincere in your apology, I'll accept you weren't & apologise myself.
Left V Right are the labels that seem to have been bestowed upon the "alarmists & deniers" which is probably not quite fair to anyone as it does divide in a black & white way. You can be genuinely concerned without being an alarmist & genuinley sceptical without being a denier.
I don't feel that Global Warming as such is THE pressing problem in the world, as I do admit to a certain scepticism in some aspects. For another time perhaps.

In regard to natural disasters (fires included) I feel Mother Nature has a way of making man and all his achievments/failures appear insignificant-that was probably the point I was trying to make.

It's all opinions & thought provoking which I appreciate because I had put my brain to sleep as the years pass-jumping head first into this & the politics thread has certainly made me think! No prisoners taken.
I will try to keep it civil Can't promise I won't be a smartarse occasionally though!

 

[Azza]

You got me TIA - it wasn't a sincere apology. I over-reacted to the sarcasm I read in your post. Sorry for snapping.

I'm probably a bit sensitive to fire issues - we live at Panton Hill and me, my wife, and our then toddler were within about 10 minutes and a wind change of being toast on Black Saturday. When politicians - especialy those sceptical about global warming - grandstand around firefighting I tend to get a bit antsy.

As to my politics, I've posted before that I like Noel Pearson's perspective on the "radical centre"-

"Pearson believes that conservatism and liberalism has a place in social reform policy, despite its natural association with preserving the power and rights of the 'privileged classes'. He goes on to discuss how the Cape York Institute has grappled with finding the 'radical centre' in their policy making. He believes that opportunities aren't enough to help a community; instead opportunities must combine with a sense of personal responsibility and self-regard to create capable individuals and communities."

http://blip.tv/slowtv/the-john-button-oration-p1-noel-pearson-4109925

 

[This Is Anfield]

You got me TIA - it wasn't a sincere apology. I over-reacted to the sarcasm I read in your post. Sorry for snapping.

I'm probably a bit sensitive to fire issues - we live at Panton Hill and me, my wife, and our then toddler were about withn 15 minutes and a wind change of being toast on Black Saturday. When politicians - especialy those sceptical about global warming - grandstand around firefighting I tend to get a bit antsy.

As to my politics, I've posted before that I like Noel Pearson's perspective on the "radical centre"-

"Pearson believes that conservatism and liberalism has a place in social reform policy, despite its natural association with preserving the power and rights of the 'privileged classes'. He goes on to discuss how the Cape York Institute has grappled with finding the 'radical centre' in their policy making. He believes that opportunities aren't enough to help a community; instead opportunities must combine with a sense of personal responsibility and self-regard to create capable individuals and communities."

http://blip.tv/slowtv/the-john-button-oration-p1-noel-pearson-4109925

All good Azza - Can't believe you picked up the sarcasm in my post It really wasn't very subtle was it.
Nice spot Panton Hill, used to go to the St Andrews pub to see the "Irish" bands back in the late 70's, loved it.

As I said to Brodders my education didn't pass form 5 or year 11 for the young un's (in fact the school told my mum they would give me my leaving certificate if I promised not to come back) so I'm not sure I grasp Noel Pearson's perspective.

I guess he's saying that we could all be a little less selfish, a little less greedy & a touch more aware of others & the world around us and our impact on it & them.

Fundamentalism, Tribalism, Religious & Racial Intolerance, Capitalist Excess & Greed, Pollution, Extinction the list of the world's woes is long & I feel powerless to change anything. Which is why my politics tends to centre on how things affect my family. Selfish, probably.

Won't stop me having my say though!

 

[Azza]

All good Azza - Can't believe you picked up the sarcasm in my post It really wasn't very subtle was it.
Nice spot Panton Hill, used to go to the St Andrews pub to see the "Irish" bands back in the late 70's, loved it.

As I said to Brodders my education didn't pass form 5 or year 11 for the young un's (in fact the school told my mum they would give me my leaving certificate if I promised not to come back) so I'm not sure I grasp Noel Pearson's perspective.

I guess he's saying that we could all be a little less selfish, a little less greedy & a touch more aware of others & the world around us and our impact on it & them.

Fundamentalism, Tribalism, Religious & Racial Intolerance, Capitalist Excess & Greed, Pollution, Extinction the list of the world's woes is long & I feel powerless to change anything. Which is why my politics tends to centre on how things affect my family. Selfish, probably.

Won't stop me having my say though!

Yeah, top spot alright. We reckon it's worth the fire risk. Good little community, nice environment, and still just inside Melbourne metro area. If we have to pull-out 3 or 4 times each summer, possibly even eventually losing our house, it's worth it.

On Pearson tho, he isn't just saying that. He's saying people need opportunity and support, but they also need to come to the party with self reliance and initiative. I see it as a combination of the productivity and creativity of business combined with equal opportunity and a reasonable safety net for those who struggle. It's the point where left and right meet that provides the most opportunity for creative policy.

Anyway, that's way off topic now.

 

[Liverpool]

The heading says it Poppa - "UN climate chief says Direct Action 'a lot more expensive' than pricing carbon". The OECD, IMF and World Bank have all said that the Government way of reducing emissions is more expensive than the Labor one it wants to get rid of.

The reference to the fires is just reinforcing the point that global warming will see an increase in fire activity.

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

 

[This Is Anfield]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

Sad but true: Heard this morning two 8 year olds caught lighting fires up near Newcastle!!!

They can't be charged but their bloody parents should have some questions to answer!

 

[Rosy]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

Kids and the Army very disappointingly might have provided the spark but they didn't provide the idyllic climatic conditions for the fires to spread so rapidly over such a vast area causing the destruction they have.

 

[bullus_hit]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

Did Hunt really consult Wikipedia, or is he talking through his hat?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia

2003 to 2013 - Twenty two major events
1993 to 2003 - Seven major events
1983 to 1993 - Two major events
1973 to 1983 - Four major events
1963 to 1973 - Four major events
The previous three 10 year periods have Two major events each

It's unbelievable some people cannot see a link between hotter temperatures and an increase in bushfires (both in frequency and severity). This is denialism at it's worst, time to put petty politics aside and use some common sense.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greg-hunt-uses-wikipedia-research-to-dismiss-links-between-climate-change-and-bushfires-20131023-2w1w5.html#ixzz2ib7GGCu1

 

[Azza]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

Do you have any comment about the greater expense of the Direct Action plan in reducing emissions Livers, or are you happy with that bit of government waste?

 

[AngryAnt]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

Lighting fires is one thing. Putting them out becomes much harder due to things like fuel load, ambient temperature, wind velocity.

Guess what? All those things are impacted by climate change.

:donut3

 

[Azza]

Of course fire activity will increase if people are lighting them.

But what have kids and the Army causing fires got to do with climate change?

:donut

I wasn't going to bother commenting since others have already done so, but since it's addressed to me, this is the fed government statement on what causes bushfires. I'll leave it to you to work out which factors are linked to global warming.

http://www.ga.gov.au/hazards/bushfire/bushfire-basics/causes.html

-------------------------

What Causes Bushfires?

Natural Hazards in Australia: identifying risk analysis requirements

The basic factors which determine whether a bushfire will occur include the presence of fuel, oxygen and an ignition source. More specifically, fire intensity and the speed at which a bushfire spreads will depend on ambient temperature, fuel load, fuel moisture, wind speed and slope angle.

Fuel load
Generally speaking, the greater the fuel load, the hotter and more intense the fire. Fuel which is concentrated with adequate spacing will burn faster than heavily compacted or scattered fuel sources. Smaller pieces of fuel such as twigs, litter and branches burn quickly, particularly when they are dry and loosely arranged. Some types of grasses burn very rapidly, while larger fuels, such as tree trunks, do not burn as easily. The natural oil within Eucalypt trees promotes the combustion of fuel.

Fuel moisture
Dry fuel will burn quickly, but damp or wet fuel may not burn at all. As a consequence, the time since rainfall and the amount of rain received is an important consideration in assessing bushfire danger. Often a measure of the drought factor, or moisture deficit, will be used as an indicator of extreme bushfire weather conditions.

Wind speed
Wind acts to drive a fire by blowing the flames into fresh fuel, bringing it to ignition point and providing a continuous supply of oxygen. Wind also promotes the rapid spread of fire by spotting, which is the ignition of new fires by burning embers lofted into the air by wind. Spotting can occur up to 30km downwind from the fire front. There is a threshold wind speed of around 12 to 15km/h which makes a significant difference in the behaviour of bushfires in the open. When wind speeds are below this threshold, fires with heavy fuel loads burn slowly. However, even a slight increase in wind speed above this threshold results in a significant increase in fire behaviour and advancement. The width of a fire front also has an influence on the rate of spread and a wind shift can immediately widen the forward edge of a fire.

Ambient temperature
The higher the temperature the more likely it is that a fire will start or continue to burn. This is because the fuel is closer to its ignition point at high temperatures and pre-heated fuel loads burn faster.

Relative humidity
Dry air promotes a greater intensity fire than moist air. Plants become more flammable at a low humidity because they release their moisture more easily.

Slope angle
Fires pre-heat their fuel source through radiation and convection. As a consequence of these heat transfer effects, fires accelerate when travelling uphill and decelerate travelling downhill. The steepness of the slope plays an important role in the rate of fire spread. The speed of a fire front advancing will double with every 10 degree increase in slope so that on a 20 degree slope, its speed of advance is four times greater than on flat ground.

Origins
Bushfires can originate from both human activity and natural causes with lightning the predominant natural source, accounting for about half of all ignitions in Australia. Fires of human origin currently account for the remainder and are classified as accidental or deliberate. Fires lit deliberately can be the result of arson or designed to achieve a beneficial outcome but experience sudden adverse weather conditions which results in their uncontrollable spread.

Unfortunately deliberate and accidentally lit fires are more prevalent near populated areas and have a disproportionately higher risk of infrastructure impact. Arsonists place people and property at serious and unnecessary risk, particularly when igniting fires on extreme fire weather days.

 

[Liverpool]

2003 to 2013 - Twenty two major events
1993 to 2003 - Seven major events
1983 to 1993 - Two major events
1973 to 1983 - Four major events
1963 to 1973 - Four major events
The previous three 10 year periods have Two major events each
It's unbelievable some people cannot see a link between hotter temperatures and an increase in bushfires (both in frequency and severity). This is denialism at it's worst, time to put petty politics aside and use some common sense.

How many fires in the past were deliberately lit compared to now?
How far has population spread, where fires in the past would burnt bushland and now its burning houses, making the fires of today more dangerous (and therefore, more newsworthy) than in the past?
How much have environmental groups got to answer for preventing and protesting against trees and forests being cut or removed, to remove the fuel for any fires...compared to in the past when people did, and were allowed, to do what they wanted to?
What is classed as a "major event" now, compared to in the past?

There are many factors to take into account and its only further scaremongering and people pushing agendas who have used fires, that were deliberately lit, as a vehicle to push some correlation between climate change and bushfires.
Not much science involved in this one... :spin

Lighting fires is one thing. Putting them out becomes much harder due to things like fuel load, ambient temperature, wind velocity.
Guess what? All those things are impacted by climate change.
:donut3

There are times when all the ducks line up...Ash Wednesday 30 years ago was one such time....Black Saturday another such time....just because we have a disaster (which was deliberately lit to begin with) doesn't mean its anything to do with climate change.
How about that it was just the weather on the day?
It seems as soon as we get a hot day or something out of the ordinary...."oh, thats proof its climate change"
Heck, I remember when the bushfires surrounded Mt.Buller at Christmas time and there was a cold snap and snow, in the middle of summer, helped put out the fires.......no grumbling about global warming then!


Firefighters celebrate a white Christmas
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/firefighters-celebrate-a-white-christmas/2006/12/25/1166895230027.html