This AFL media situation is outrageous. Its makes Blairs already tough job much tougher. There are a few things going on:
1) Richmond hate. Been discussed to death elsewhere, it goes back decades and its measurable and real.
2) The AFL's closed shop, homogenous perspective boys-club media. They are, in the vast majority of cases, conflicted, scared, and not very bright. They are footy players, not political, economic and business analysts, but that doesn't stop them sticking their big fat ignorant 2 bobs worth in and then all nodding along.
3) We are in a totally unprecedented situation. We've just had a brutal relentless dynasty so the hate is fresh, and it looks like the stars have aligned for us to have expansion-club-like draft hand in a strong draft. They are jealous and shitting themselves we won't be down for long, and thankfully they have good reason.
All of this manifests in random ridiculous statements of what players are worth or what we should get, but more than that, and here is the frustrating compounding thing, these morons don't and won't consider each deal in isolation and on its merits because we have a lot of deals happening. There is this underlying stance that we don't need to get much on each given deals, because we'll end up with a lot of picks at the end. Or in other words, other sides should get a discount because we are having some kind of renovation sale.
Its the market, dummy. Imagine if a Chinese iron-ore customer took the stance that they should get a discount from BHP because they are selling a lot of it? Or wanted a discount because they got a premium off another customer? It beggars belief. The market is the market, value is value. They can all go and get stuffed. They are a pack of arse licking, brainless turds.
Value is never simple. There is 'real value' of what a player would be worth all things being equal, a hypothetical auction and every club can fit them into their salary cap etc. Then there is fair and reasonable compensation, what happens in the real world and dependent on a shipload of factors, talent, potential, CV, club needs, homesickness, salary cap, contract status, desired destination, available picks and more:
Based on this, IMO:
Rioli, real value: 1 top 10 pick, say pick 5. What should get and why:, 6 and a pick in the 20s. Its a premium, but not a big one, and that happens all the time in every market. Its based on GC desperately wanting him and pursuing him, contract, and the fact he's a star.
Shai, real value, 2 top 10 picks and a sweetener, say 5 and 10 and 30 What we should get and why. 10 and 11. Its close to the mark, he wants to go home, and most importantly, they have those picks. Its a bit of a discount for Freo, but that happens all the time, same as premiums above.
Bakes, real value: pick around 10, and it looks like we'll get close to that, which will be a good outcome considering his contract status and nomination.
Edit: On Shai, i think Bell's has a point that picks are worth more this draft due to quality and the Tassie spectre, but we are still too far apart. In other years 10 and 11 would be a big discount for Shai, this year its a smaller discount, but its still a discount.