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Coronavirus

Next survey has come through on opinion polls on the handling of Covid. 2 weeks ago Gladys had the worst opinion poll results. She has now improved. While Victoria has gone backwards.

I think over the next week or so Dan Andrews will come up with some positive announcements to correct the trend in the below.

Also very interesting it’s 6% of Victorians who will never get vaccinated. There is one state that sticks out big time for anti vaccination. It surprised me a bit to see it at that level.

 
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LeeToRainesToRoach said:
I'm looking at 157 hospitalised two weeks ago and 0% double-vaxxed.
Now 375 hospitalised and 5% double-vaxxed.

None of those hospitalised up to Sep 13 were double-vaxxed.
9% of those hospitalised in the last fortnight were double-vaxxed.

What it says to me is the newly double-vaxxed are thinking themselves immune and coming unstuck.
Click to expand...
A great many of the double vaxed are very very old and frail ie nursing home patients who we have deliberately vaccinated first.
Two points..
1 Some of these people will still succumb to mild covid despite vaccination because they are very frail.
2 Not everyone makes a good immune response. A small percentage of people will make no immune response and others a weak response. Fortunately the percentage is low, but the aged and frail notoriously make a weak response. So they are again more susceptible to the illness and least able to survive it.

If you look at hepatitis b vaccination.
We have two injections and this will give 90 to 95 % of people who make an adequate response.
Health care workers are required to have an anti body level test done after two shots to see if the vax was effective.
Three or four injections gives more, but even five injections will not give a 100% response.
Some people will not make a good immune response to a vaccination. Just how it is.

So it is true that the more people who are vaccinated, the more people we will see not make an adequate response and some of them will die. They would also have died if not vaccinated .......... but so so many more did not.
Unfortunately no therapy can be 100% effective....... Death of course is 100% effective.

PS.. it is compulsary to vote for politicians who are 0% effective.
 
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MD Jazz said:
But of the original 157 I would assume some (most?) of them got out of hospital in the last 2 weeks? So it wouldn't necessarily be 9% of the extra 218 as that assumes the original 157 are still in hospital.
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Fair enough, the figure is wrong. But the trend is new. Why only in the last two weeks?
 
pete and tys said:
A great many of the double vaxed are very very old and frail ie nursing home patients who we have deliberately vaccinated first.
Two points..
1 Some of these people will still succumb to mild covid despite vaccination because they are very frail.
2 Not everyone makes a good immune response. A small percentage of people will make no immune response and others a weak response. Fortunately the percentage is low, but the aged and frail notoriously make a weak response. So they are again more susceptible to the illness and least able to survive it.

If you look at hepatitis b vaccination.
We have two injections and this will give 90 to 95 % of people who make an adequate response.
Health care workers are required to have an anti body level test done after two shots to see if the vax was effective.
Three or four injections gives more, but even five injections will not give a 100% response.
Some people will not make a good immune response to a vaccination. Just how it is.

So it is true that the more people who are vaccinated, the more people we will see not make an adequate response and some of them will die. They would also have died if not vaccinated .......... but so so many more did not.
Unfortunately no therapy can be 100% effective....... Death of course is 100% effective.

PS.. it is compulsary to vote for politicians who are 0% effective.
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Accepted. But why is this only manifesting in the last fortnight?
 
Don't know really.
Perhaps with the large number of covid cases we have there is just more and more exposure for the oldies.
That's my guess.
 
MB78 said:
Next survey has come through on opinion polls on the handling of Covid. 2 weeks ago Gladys had the worst opinion poll results. She has now improved. While Victoria has gone backwards.

I think over the next week or so Dan Andrews will come up with some positive announcements to correct the trend in the below.

Also very interesting it’s 6% of Victorians who will never get vaccinated. There is one state that sticks out big time for anti vaccination. It surprised me a bit to see it at that level.

Click to expand...

Dan's smug and not so subtle remark that we don't want to be like, (incompetent and reckless), NSW and have their case numbers hasn't aged well.
2 days in row we have had more cases despite NSW having double the testing :(
 
caesar said:
Dan's smug and not so subtle remark that we don't want to be like, (incompetent and reckless), NSW and have their case numbers hasn't aged well.
2 days in row we have had more cases despite NSW having double the testing :(
Click to expand...
And us having tougher restrictions.
It started when Dan tweeted Zero and put the mozz on us.
There must be some other factors at play? in particular the weather?
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Accepted. But why is this only manifesting in the last fortnight?
Click to expand...

Shortests answer is still that more people have been vaxxed. What would be useful, is to understand the ages of those that are hospitalised but have been double vaxxed. We don't know if we are talking 30 year olds or 90 year olds.

I think the alternative way to look at it is this.

% of population of VIC unvaxxed = 22.1% (as 77.9% have 1 does) - % hospitalised = 78%
% of population of VIC single dosed = 30.2% - % hospitalised = 17%
% of population of VIC double dosed = 47.7% - % hospitalised = 5%

NB - above is using 16+ figures

Suggests to me that vaccination works. Whilst some people that are vaxxed might still get sick, thats the probabilities of medication or any safety measures for that point.

Think of it like wearing a condom, it stops 99% of pregnancies but not all of them, exactly the same as a vaccine, doesn't mean people say "don't wrap it up"
 
mrposhman said:
Shortests answer is still that more people have been vaxxed. What would be useful, is to understand the ages of those that are hospitalised but have been double vaxxed. We don't know if we are talking 30 year olds or 90 year olds.

I think the alternative way to look at it is this.

% of population of VIC unvaxxed = 22.1% (as 77.9% have 1 does) - % hospitalised = 78%
% of population of VIC single dosed = 30.2% - % hospitalised = 17%
% of population of VIC double dosed = 47.7% - % hospitalised = 5%

NB - above is using 16+ figures

Suggests to me that vaccination works. Whilst some people that are vaxxed might still get sick, thats the probabilities of medication or any safety measures for that point.

Think of it like wearing a condom, it stops 99% of pregnancies but not all of them, exactly the same as a vaccine, doesn't mean people say "don't wrap it up"
Click to expand...
All good. Just trying to understand the mechanism behind 2.2m fully vaccinated and zero hospitalised/2.6m fully vaxxed and 5%.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
All good. Just trying to understand the mechanism behind 2.2m fully vaccinated and zero hospitalised/2.6m fully vaxxed and 5%.
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So of 2.6m people about 16 of them are in hospital? I like those odds
Once we open up more will be In hospital following car accidents.
 
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LeeToRainesToRoach said:
View attachment 13699

Interpretation of the trend of the last column?
Click to expand...

I knew this would come up.

On August 13 I posted a link to an article explaining the fact that as most people become vaccinated there will be more people dying who are vaccinated than who are not vaccinated.

For those who can't remember or simply want to ignore what has already been explained, here's another link to the article: https://theconversation.com/most-co...ated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

The trend in the last column is entirely predictable, has been pointed out before and is actually looking very good given that we have not even got to 50% of over 16 year olds vaccinated in Victoria yet. That last column is one of the best arguments for vaccination I have seen.

DS
 
mrposhman said:
I'd say having 2.6m fully vaccinated and only 19 of them in hospital would be a good result?
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It’s more so the percentage of the population (of the same age) that has got vaccinated AND been exposed to Covid…. If only 19 of that 2.6m population were exposed to and caught Covid it would be a *smile* number. But we will never know that. Once we open up I expect almost everyone to be exposed to it at some stage so we will see what happens over time. But I think it’s a pretty good number though!
 
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Martin Foley was asked about the testing rates between NSW and VIC at the presser today. I've time-stamped his answer in link below.


Basically, Victoria's testing strategy is more targeted to the hotspot areas, and there's no mandatory testing for workers in those hotspots.


Much to my surprise, this was supported by Rachael Baxendale on Peta Credlin's show. I don't usually recommend watching Sky but Rachael makes some good points here.


Paraphrased quote - "if you're clogging up your testing capacity with a heaps of people who are going to test negative anyway, then there's not much point in doing 50 000 extra tests." In other words, Victoria's targeting testing strategy is more efficient than NSW's broader testing mandate, which they've recently wound back.

Anecdotally, I had a test at the testing site near Monash Uni Clayton on Friday at about midday, and there was literally no one else waiting to be tested. Admittedly it was a public holiday, but if there was more covid in the area, you'd think there would be more people getting tests. But there isn't, so the testing capacity can be used elsewhere. Such as the Latrobe Valley, now they've had an outbreak.
 
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RoarEmotion said:
It’s more so the percentage of the population (of the same age) that has got vaccinated AND been exposed to Covid…. If only 19 of that 2.6m population were exposed to and caught Covid it would be a *smile* number. But we will never know that. Once we open up I expect almost everyone to be exposed to it at some stage so we will see what happens over time. But I think it’s a pretty good number though!
Click to expand...

Yeah agree its a good start but also agree this won't be the number when we open up. It will certainly grow.
 
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