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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
First evidence of bubonic plague was found in a tomb in current day Sweden dating from circa 3000-3500 BC.
Australia has the lowest death rate among the 19 countries with 2000+ cases. Let's keep it that way and help the doctors to do their thing.
Fair enough. Was talking about the first recognised pandemic in the 14th century.
Fair enough. Was talking about the first recognised pandemic in the 14th century.
yeah.. sorry to be pedantic. For me this issue of where a virus originates is nonsense. If the bubonic plague emerges again in Mexico City and becomes a global pandemic do we yell abuse at Mexicans on the street?
Yes, China's local response was poor. They got better very quickly and have retooled factories and are now manufacturing thousands of ventilators for export. They are providing doctors and nurses and expertise to other countries. I hate the CCCP as much as the next guy but let's not blame "China".
Meanwhile other governments are making the same mistakes or worse.
OK, I take the point that blaming right now isn't useful. I suspect one consequence will be a resurgence in national pride. Some will hate it but I'd see it as a huge positive. It'd put certain "commentators" out of a job.
MAGA.
Meanwhile, in the USA we are seeing some truly ridiculous statements:
The Washington Examiner reported the following comments by the Lt Governor of Texas Dan Patrick:
Yep, the economy is apparently more important than people, so much so we should be willing to lay down our lives to help the economy stay healthy. Neo-liberalism in a nutshell really.
DS
The Washington Examiner reported the following comments by the Lt Governor of Texas Dan Patrick:
Yep, the economy is apparently more important than people, so much so we should be willing to lay down our lives to help the economy stay healthy. Neo-liberalism in a nutshell really.
DS
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As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.
99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.www.bloomberg.com
Are you volunteering to be number 18? I'm not.
You mentioned suicide earlier; think about the mental damage it would do if 1 in 6 (probably a lot more in practice) 80yo's is allowed to contract the disease and die. How many bereaved, how many depressed, the effect on morale, the loss of productivity, the long-term burden on health care. Probably many other effects I haven't thought of.
Certainly I would hold the government responsible for any personal loss if that was the policy. It's untenable and sick, and not countenanced even in far less democratic societies than ours.
I really do understand your perspective regarding the substantial trade-off, but it's not a holistic one.
This suggests Australia's elderly are isolating themselves pretty well, as they're obliged to do. The rest of us, not so well.
So it could be that the health systems keep many sick under 50s from dying.
It is reported that Covid19 is treatable in a hospital eg ventilators and oxygen machines.
And the treatment is more effective for younger / fitter people.
But if this spreads and overloads the hospital system, so that treatment for severe cases is simply 'stay home' then the numbers of dead under 50s will no doubt be much higher than 17.
That is the panic that Italy and Spain are facing
Gee Tigerman, you have some interesting sources of information.This explains why Italy has copped the brunt of the Coronavirus.
CORONA VIRUS EXCLUSIVE: WHY ITALY? - AltNewsMedia
As the impact of the Corona Virus (Covid-19) continues to grow, nowhere in Europe has been more affected than Italy, and in particular northern Italy. With a complete lockdown announced […]www.altnewsmedia.net
I'm always looking for explanations Bernie.
Data tells you a lot, as in what different countries are doing right and wrong.
Case count excluding China (updated 11:30pm)
355,595 cases
16,356 deaths (4.60%)
11,856 severe (3%)
289,155 mild (81%)
38,228 recovered (11%)
355,595 cases
16,356 deaths (4.60%)
11,856 severe (3%)
289,155 mild (81%)
38,228 recovered (11%)
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B
Bill James
Guest
(Apologies drafted this last night but forgot to hit post. Data is a day behind.)
Now here is one for those beguiled by the Twitter Expert explaining the chessboard effect of COVID R0 compared to flue R0. R0 if you missed it is the number of people you will pass it on to. It is believed that a COVID positive person will pass it on to twice as many people as someone with the flu. The hasty conclusion is that it will, therefore, spread faster.
But
How quickly after infection can you pass it on?
How susceptible are other people you meet to infection?
WHO explained these differences in Situation Report 46 on 6th March. (Sorry I missed it at the time, I scanned over the page to the stats.)
Annual flu infections are estimated at around 1,000,000,000 per annum with annual deaths estimated at around 500,000 about 67% of whom are over 65
So far this year COVID 19 has infected around 700,000 people and resulted in deaths estimated at around 14,500 about 95% of whom are over 60
For COVID to kill as many people as the flu this year it will need to infect 24,000,000 people, which requires a daily increase of 92,000 a day for the rest of the year.
You might argue exponential curves, but the curves only run exponentially for a few weeks, not all year. More on that tomorrow.
Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
LOOK AFTER YOUR OLDIES.
Now here is one for those beguiled by the Twitter Expert explaining the chessboard effect of COVID R0 compared to flue R0. R0 if you missed it is the number of people you will pass it on to. It is believed that a COVID positive person will pass it on to twice as many people as someone with the flu. The hasty conclusion is that it will, therefore, spread faster.
But
How quickly after infection can you pass it on?
How susceptible are other people you meet to infection?
WHO explained these differences in Situation Report 46 on 6th March. (Sorry I missed it at the time, I scanned over the page to the stats.)
Annual flu infections are estimated at around 1,000,000,000 per annum with annual deaths estimated at around 500,000 about 67% of whom are over 65
So far this year COVID 19 has infected around 700,000 people and resulted in deaths estimated at around 14,500 about 95% of whom are over 60
For COVID to kill as many people as the flu this year it will need to infect 24,000,000 people, which requires a daily increase of 92,000 a day for the rest of the year.
You might argue exponential curves, but the curves only run exponentially for a few weeks, not all year. More on that tomorrow.
Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
LOOK AFTER YOUR OLDIES.
