what about injecting bleach thats been blessed by a Masterchef contestant?
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
what about injecting bleach thats been blessed by a Masterchef contestant?
what about injecting bleach thats been blessed by a Masterchef contestant?
I think the immune response to the delta variant is 3-5 times less potent than the OG virus, which isn’t noticeable a few months after the vaccine, but I‘m under the impression their effectiveness is likely to flatten out more quickly. So we might need more booster shots sooner than planned.
The way I see it, we’re in a race between the emerging variants of concern and our immune system’s ability to remain effective for as long as possible.
In the end, we’ll probably all just have to keep catching various forms of covid and regularly getting vaccinated until our immune systems sufficiently adapt to the point where the next generation will look back and go “why the hell were you guys afraid of covid?! It’s not like it’s the flu!”
Yes, eventually it will become part of people's viral load, an annoyance rather than a disaster.
I‘m not looking forward to lodging any Australian Annoyance Payment forms
Yep that's what I was asking regarding. Thanks.
I find that quite hard to believe that there have been multiple choices in regards to this. Seems like an absolute no brainer that one App designated by the government would be a must.
One thing I'll give McGowan is that his government got this sorted within a short period of time after the pandemic started, not after the last outbreak. It has worked brilliantly when needed.
I would have thought this information is the one piece of the puzzle in containment measures that the gov would control.
Anyway hope you Vic's don't need anymore shut-downs from here on in.
Gee, how hard was that? Simple ad, I don't understand French but no need for a translation, the message is bleedingly obvious - vaccinate and everything opens up.
Mind you, not having enough vaccines to go around is the most likely explanation for the woeful effort of the incompetent fools running the show here.
DS
Research tips thousands of COVID deaths without restrictions and more vaccinations
Thousands of people could die of COVID-19 in Victoria in the event of a highly infectious outbreak if there were no restrictions on movement and gatherings even if 70 per cent of the population were vaccinated.
These are the findings of new mathematical modelling developed by Melbourne’s Burnet Institute, which suggests Australia is unlikely to ever reach herd immunity against COVID-19 at the current level of vaccine uptake because more highly contagious variants could undermine immunity.
The medical institute’s modelling also suggests public health interventions such as increased testing, home isolation and face masks will be required for several years to come when new COVID-19 cases emerge, even if there is high uptake of the vaccine.
Herd immunity occurs when a large enough proportion of the population is vaccinated against a disease, or has been infected with a disease and developed antibodies against it, preventing the virus from transmitting widely.
The Burnet Institute modelling assumed a vaccine rollout speed of either 150,000 or 250,000 doses a week in Victoria, and examined several scenarios projecting the number of COVID-19 infections, hospitalisation and deaths one year after new infections enter the community.
Modelling for one scenario examined the likely outcomes if a new strain of the virus 1.5 times more infectious than the Wuhan strain, which plunged Victoria into lockdown last year, seeded an outbreak after 80 per cent of Victorians aged over 60, and 70 per cent of the rest of the population, were immunised.
The projections were modelled on a vaccine that had roughly 50 per cent efficacy in preventing infection and 93 per cent efficacy in preventing death, with face masks not mandated and no major public health response, such as lockdowns or increased testing and quarantine, in place to control an outbreak.
Burnet Institute head of modelling Nick Scott, who led the research, said it found even if a small outbreak of a highly contagious strain of the virus seeped into Melbourne at roughly 60 per cent vaccine coverage, it could result in 4885 deaths within a year.
“Those who are vaccinated would be protected and may only experience mild or no symptoms,” Dr Scott said. “But among those not vaccinated – possibly up to 30 per cent of the community – we could see a large number of hospitalisations and deaths.”
The modelling tool, which can be tweaked to adapt vaccine efficacy around variants, also showed that if the same scenario played out when vaccine coverage increased to 95 per cent, the projected number of deaths would drop to 1346.
If the vaccine’s efficacy against infection increased to 75 per cent, with the same parameters in the scenario described, the number of deaths after one year could be less than 1000.
“What it really shows is without herd immunity, if we stopped taking a public health approach and allowed the virus to spread, it is still likely to infect a large proportion of the community,” Dr Scott said.
Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said the modelling depicted a “worst-case scenario”, showing what could happen if governments decided not to intervene and “let the virus run” even with moderate-to-high vaccine coverage.
“This is a scenario that is unlikely to happen because we would intervene,” Professor Hellard said.
“But what this modelling highlights is we need much higher vaccine coverage to reduce infections and severe infection.
“It also tells us that even with really high vaccine coverage, there will be occasions where we do need to bring in some extra levels of restriction, like face masks and increased testing, but probably not as harsh as the lockdown we have just experienced in Victoria.”
She said the need for short, sharp lockdowns – such as the measures implemented over the past fortnight in Victoria – could not be ruled out to crush outbreaks until vaccine uptake increased.
Experts remain divided on exactly what level of vaccine uptake is needed before they would be confident that virus transmission would be minimal.
Some say the figure is somewhere around 70 to 75 per cent, while others estimate coverage must exceed 80 per cent of the adult population.
Dr Scott said even if Australia reached more than 80 per cent coverage, there would be millions of Australians unvaccinated, and others who were vaccinated but could still transmit the virus, but not fall seriously ill.
In the United Kingdom, where more than 40 million people have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, deaths involving coronavirus had dropped below 100 for the first time in nearly nine months.
But Professor Hellard said this was not reflective of the effects of the vaccine alone, as the UK had also imposed restrictions, including lockdowns, gathering limits and social distancing.
However, former health department secretary and director of health at the Grattan Institute Stephen Duckett said while the modelling showed widespread vaccination was critical, the scenarios were unlikely to ever play out in Victoria because health authorities would never abandon all public health interventions if there was an outbreak.
Professor Duckett said as vaccine uptake increased in Victoria lockdowns would probably become increasingly unnecessary and less intrusive interventions like wearing face masks would become the new norm.
“These things are a continuum and every additional vaccination helps as you increase from 20 per cent coverage, to 50 per cent to 60 per cent vaccine coverage it reduces the consequences of outbreaks,” he said.
“The higher the vaccine uptake the more there will be a lighter-touch response. It’s not all doom and gloom. There are other public health interventions that can be implemented quickly without the lockdown consequences.”
University of Melbourne epidemiologist Dr Tony Blakely said the modelling came at a time when Australia needed to have a national conversation about when to open its borders.
“The modelling is just one model and it has its strengths and weaknesses like any model,” he said.
“On the one hand it could be seen as too optimistic because it tended to focus on the UK variant, when now we have more infectious variants like the Delta strain.
“But on the other hand it could be seen as too pessimistic because our vaccines are showing to be better at stopping transmission than we initially thought.”
Professor Blakely, whose view is Australia will never reach the “magic threshold of herd immunity” suspects when the borders open back up sometime next year, lockdowns could not be ruled out completely, but the need for them will continue to dimnish.
“I think that we’ll want to let the virus sweep through Australia in a very controlled manner when we hopefully have very high vaccination rates,” he said.
“It will be bumpy. There will be people getting infected, there will be morbidity and unfortunately there will be some deaths. However, when we open up to the rest of the world, it really is moot what role lockdowns will have and it will depend on how much infection we allow in at any one point in time.”
Thousands of people could die of COVID-19 in Victoria in the event of a highly infectious outbreak if there were no restrictions on movement and gatherings even if 70 per cent of the population were vaccinated.
These are the findings of new mathematical modelling developed by Melbourne’s Burnet Institute, which suggests Australia is unlikely to ever reach herd immunity against COVID-19 at the current level of vaccine uptake because more highly contagious variants could undermine immunity.
The medical institute’s modelling also suggests public health interventions such as increased testing, home isolation and face masks will be required for several years to come when new COVID-19 cases emerge, even if there is high uptake of the vaccine.
Herd immunity occurs when a large enough proportion of the population is vaccinated against a disease, or has been infected with a disease and developed antibodies against it, preventing the virus from transmitting widely.
The Burnet Institute modelling assumed a vaccine rollout speed of either 150,000 or 250,000 doses a week in Victoria, and examined several scenarios projecting the number of COVID-19 infections, hospitalisation and deaths one year after new infections enter the community.
Modelling for one scenario examined the likely outcomes if a new strain of the virus 1.5 times more infectious than the Wuhan strain, which plunged Victoria into lockdown last year, seeded an outbreak after 80 per cent of Victorians aged over 60, and 70 per cent of the rest of the population, were immunised.
The projections were modelled on a vaccine that had roughly 50 per cent efficacy in preventing infection and 93 per cent efficacy in preventing death, with face masks not mandated and no major public health response, such as lockdowns or increased testing and quarantine, in place to control an outbreak.
Burnet Institute head of modelling Nick Scott, who led the research, said it found even if a small outbreak of a highly contagious strain of the virus seeped into Melbourne at roughly 60 per cent vaccine coverage, it could result in 4885 deaths within a year.
“Those who are vaccinated would be protected and may only experience mild or no symptoms,” Dr Scott said. “But among those not vaccinated – possibly up to 30 per cent of the community – we could see a large number of hospitalisations and deaths.”
The modelling tool, which can be tweaked to adapt vaccine efficacy around variants, also showed that if the same scenario played out when vaccine coverage increased to 95 per cent, the projected number of deaths would drop to 1346.
If the vaccine’s efficacy against infection increased to 75 per cent, with the same parameters in the scenario described, the number of deaths after one year could be less than 1000.
“What it really shows is without herd immunity, if we stopped taking a public health approach and allowed the virus to spread, it is still likely to infect a large proportion of the community,” Dr Scott said.
Burnet Institute deputy director Margaret Hellard said the modelling depicted a “worst-case scenario”, showing what could happen if governments decided not to intervene and “let the virus run” even with moderate-to-high vaccine coverage.
“This is a scenario that is unlikely to happen because we would intervene,” Professor Hellard said.
“But what this modelling highlights is we need much higher vaccine coverage to reduce infections and severe infection.
“It also tells us that even with really high vaccine coverage, there will be occasions where we do need to bring in some extra levels of restriction, like face masks and increased testing, but probably not as harsh as the lockdown we have just experienced in Victoria.”
She said the need for short, sharp lockdowns – such as the measures implemented over the past fortnight in Victoria – could not be ruled out to crush outbreaks until vaccine uptake increased.
Experts remain divided on exactly what level of vaccine uptake is needed before they would be confident that virus transmission would be minimal.
Some say the figure is somewhere around 70 to 75 per cent, while others estimate coverage must exceed 80 per cent of the adult population.
Dr Scott said even if Australia reached more than 80 per cent coverage, there would be millions of Australians unvaccinated, and others who were vaccinated but could still transmit the virus, but not fall seriously ill.
In the United Kingdom, where more than 40 million people have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, deaths involving coronavirus had dropped below 100 for the first time in nearly nine months.
But Professor Hellard said this was not reflective of the effects of the vaccine alone, as the UK had also imposed restrictions, including lockdowns, gathering limits and social distancing.
However, former health department secretary and director of health at the Grattan Institute Stephen Duckett said while the modelling showed widespread vaccination was critical, the scenarios were unlikely to ever play out in Victoria because health authorities would never abandon all public health interventions if there was an outbreak.
Professor Duckett said as vaccine uptake increased in Victoria lockdowns would probably become increasingly unnecessary and less intrusive interventions like wearing face masks would become the new norm.
“These things are a continuum and every additional vaccination helps as you increase from 20 per cent coverage, to 50 per cent to 60 per cent vaccine coverage it reduces the consequences of outbreaks,” he said.
“The higher the vaccine uptake the more there will be a lighter-touch response. It’s not all doom and gloom. There are other public health interventions that can be implemented quickly without the lockdown consequences.”
University of Melbourne epidemiologist Dr Tony Blakely said the modelling came at a time when Australia needed to have a national conversation about when to open its borders.
“The modelling is just one model and it has its strengths and weaknesses like any model,” he said.
“On the one hand it could be seen as too optimistic because it tended to focus on the UK variant, when now we have more infectious variants like the Delta strain.
“But on the other hand it could be seen as too pessimistic because our vaccines are showing to be better at stopping transmission than we initially thought.”
Professor Blakely, whose view is Australia will never reach the “magic threshold of herd immunity” suspects when the borders open back up sometime next year, lockdowns could not be ruled out completely, but the need for them will continue to dimnish.
“I think that we’ll want to let the virus sweep through Australia in a very controlled manner when we hopefully have very high vaccination rates,” he said.
“It will be bumpy. There will be people getting infected, there will be morbidity and unfortunately there will be some deaths. However, when we open up to the rest of the world, it really is moot what role lockdowns will have and it will depend on how much infection we allow in at any one point in time.”
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genuine question: Could Morrison be an anti-vaxxer?
on the tarmac in England with his +1 pass for the G7,
he said, in his churlish manner
'England has 70% of their population vaccinated and they had 7000 cases yesterday'
I was a bit taken aback. He didnt offer much else. And I interpreted it as him letting his guard down on foreign soil,
and revealing anti-vaxxer tendencies?
what could possibly have been his point?
we know he's anti-science and pro-god.
This is serious. A Pentecostal anti-vaxxer with QAnon friends and staff as boss cocky?
well, right now Michael McCormack is boss cocky, which is even worse.
he's like a dumber version of Fred Nile.
If we dont vote these clowns out next chance, we are well and truly *smile*.
on the tarmac in England with his +1 pass for the G7,
he said, in his churlish manner
'England has 70% of their population vaccinated and they had 7000 cases yesterday'
I was a bit taken aback. He didnt offer much else. And I interpreted it as him letting his guard down on foreign soil,
and revealing anti-vaxxer tendencies?
what could possibly have been his point?
we know he's anti-science and pro-god.
This is serious. A Pentecostal anti-vaxxer with QAnon friends and staff as boss cocky?
well, right now Michael McCormack is boss cocky, which is even worse.
he's like a dumber version of Fred Nile.
If we dont vote these clowns out next chance, we are well and truly *smile*.
Ill pre-empt it by suggesting all powerful people have looney mates in their orbit.
but they aren't all god-bothering, incompetent, mealy-mouthed, dark-hearted, corrupt
*smile*
I think Morrison is an anti-vaxxer as well. I really do. I reckon the insiders book on the pandemic national cabinet one day is gonna be an unfathomable horror
I don't think he's an anti-vaxxer, he just knows Australia doesn't have enough vaccines to push hard. So instead he pushes out FUD and those that need Murdoch to think for them sit at home not worrying about getting the jabs.
4Corners show airs tomorrow but I haven't seen any statement that it goes to air unedited, or pieces cut, from the original show that was blocked.
4Corners show airs tomorrow but I haven't seen any statement that it goes to air unedited, or pieces cut, from the original show that was blocked.
I was reading some information overnight on the Indian 'Delta variant' (now the dominant strain in the UK) & plenty of people are still getting it despite being fully vaccinated.
Cases will be one thing when things open up again. Preventing serious illness & death another altogether.
Wonder if they'll do one on Dan and his ways with unions, coverups & lies. Doubt it as abc was all laughs & hugs with him while people were dying due to his failures last year. Only ones getting easy access to his glorious media conferences.
Others media got 10 min warnings b4 media conference wld start or banned.
Imo politicians are all the same.
Its voting for the one that will least F u up with their policies.
Sky & ABC yeah different battlefields, theyll choose their agendas.
It's been suggested for a little while that the UK is entering a third (fourth ?) wave. The figures don't discount that possibility.
