Coronavirus

[DavidSSS]

Active cases revised for today, now back to 100.

Here's a nice graphic showing the impact of restrictions and abiding by the rules (hope it works):

https://giant.gfycat.com/AllSomberFly.mp4

Can't get it to display here, hope the link works.

DS

 

[IanG]

0 new cases 0 deaths. Woohoo!

 

[Ridley]

0 new cases 0 deaths. Woohoo!

Excellent news. Wonder if it will be enough for Andrews to release the brakes. He needs to; time to get Victoria moving. Like NSW we are going to have outbreaks but with such low numbers we should be able to manage it effectively.

If the VIC authorities haven't got their *smile* together by now then one has to wonder at the competence of those in charge.

 

[IanG]

Excellent news. Wonder if it will be enough for Andrews to release the brakes. He needs to; time to get Victoria moving. Like NSW we are going to have outbreaks but with such low numbers we should be able to manage it effectively.

If the VIC authorities haven't got their *smile* together by now then one has to wonder at the competence of those in charge.

I agree he has to announce the easing of restrictions today, it will be a big mistake not to.

 

[Brodders17]

I agree he has to announce the easing of restrictions today, it will be a big mistake not to.

i think half of the relevant test results have come back, the other half will be today- so in tomorrows results, tho they will know later today.
there wont be an announcement today- and based off yesterdays logic there shouldnt be. (and I think Andrews said somewhere it would be Tuesday.)

 

[MD Jazz]

The facts don't support claims of a Brett Sutton cover-up over emails

The documentary trail does not back a sinister reading of the Victorian chief health officer’s actions around his evidence to the quarantine hotels inquiry

www.theguardian.com

Not an unfair summary Ian. But I read this and question the real foresight of those in charge.

It stretches credulity that Sutton didn’t know about the use of private security until May. But it should be said that even if he had, it probably wouldn’t have made any difference.

He said in his evidence to the inquiry that he wouldn’t necessarily have acted to stop it. “I think the wisdom, we have in hindsight is a key element here. I’m not sure anyone at the point in time of decision-making around hotel quarantine commencement might have been able to foreshadow some of the complexities of that workforce.”

Would it be unfair to expect someone with Brett's background and expertise to identify that quarantine was the most crucial element of risk around the spread of the virus? or that someone involved in all those discussions around quarantine didn't say lets make sure we get this right, 100% watertight? It is easy in hindsight but that's why people are charged with immense responsibility and remunerated accordingly (maybe the pay isn't enough to get the very best people?)

 

[Sintiger]

Not an unfair summary Ian. But I read this and question the real foresight of those in charge.

It stretches credulity that Sutton didn’t know about the use of private security until May. But it should be said that even if he had, it probably wouldn’t have made any difference.

He said in his evidence to the inquiry that he wouldn’t necessarily have acted to stop it. “I think the wisdom, we have in hindsight is a key element here. I’m not sure anyone at the point in time of decision-making around hotel quarantine commencement might have been able to foreshadow some of the complexities of that workforce.”

Would it be unfair to expect someone with Brett's background and expertise to identify that quarantine was the most crucial element of risk around the spread of the virus? or that someone involved in all those discussions around quarantine didn't say lets make sure we get this right, 100% watertight? It is easy in hindsight but that's why people are charged with immense responsibility and remunerated accordingly (maybe the pay isn't enough to get the very best people?)

MDJ , firstly it wasn't his decision. The CHO does not decide operational matters ,whether he should or shouldn't is another question but in Victoria he doesn't

Sutton has been immense and has the respect of almost everyone in the field across the state. If he loses his job for this the big losers are the people of Victoria.

The question behind all of this is whether in March 2020 it was reasonable to be able to predict that a few security guards would get COVID and cause this issue and that wouldn't have happened if it was the ADF or Police? Personally I have my doubts because the issue wasn't the security guards so much but the training of them, infection control and contact tracing in a couple of the hotels. The ADF and Police would have been trained the same way by the same people. Our defence personnel aren't trained in pandemic infection prevention, nor are our police. In my view even though it happened with security guards we should have been able to control it and we didn't for a variety of reasons.

I have posted before that those who were ultimately responsible were those actually running the program and that was the DHHS but not under the direct control of the CHO.

By all means find out what happened but we have to blame the right people. That's my view FWIW

 

[DavidSSS]

0 cases but talk of people not wanting to be tested as everyone wants the restrictions reduced, and also more results to come.

So, we need to wait until we get the full picture but that is a very nice result for the day.



Plus, the numbers:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
12 October 2020	11	10.71	9.60	10.36
13 October 2020	5	10.71	7.60	10.00
14 October 2020	6	10.29	5.00	9.43
15 October 2020	2	9.14	3.20	9.21
16 October 2020	1	7.29	2.80	8.64
17 October 2020	2	5.86	1.80	8.07
18 October 2020	3	4.29	2.00	7.71
19 October 2020	1	2.86	2.80	6.79
20 October 2020	3	2.57	2.60	6.64
21 October 2020	5	2.43	3.40	6.36
22 October 2020	1	2.29	4.60	5.71
23 October 2020	7	3.14	4.00	5.21
24 October 2020	7	3.86		4.86
25 October 2020	0	3.43		3.86

Looking better, hopefully stays that way.

DS

 

[22nd Man]

All systems go (nearly, some sooner than later but they can rev their engines).... Third victory for Vicoria in three days.

 

[AngryAnt]

Nine/Ipsos poll from today's Age




Preferred premier

 

[mrposhman]

Said it months ago, O'Brien is as unelectable as Shorten was in the last fed election.

 

[tigertim]

Said it months ago, O'Brien is as unelectable as Shorten was in the last fed election.

The Libs are presuming Andrews will lose the next election (as opposed to the Libs winning it) but it’s still 2 years away. People have short memories. OBrien has zero charisma (then again so has Danny boy).

 

[MD Jazz]

MDJ , firstly it wasn't his decision. The CHO does not decide operational matters ,whether he should or shouldn't is another question but in Victoria he doesn't

Sorry Sing you have said that before but I didn’t suggest that here.

Did you read the article? If yes Do you think it’s a fair summary?

Sutton appears to have been more involved or across things than you suggest.

I think our expectations of public servants is too low. Maybe we just don’t pay enough.

 

[Sintiger]

Sorry Sing you have said that before but I didn’t suggest that here.

Did you read the article? If yes Do you think it’s a fair summary?

Sutton appears to have been more involved or across things than you suggest.

I think our expectations of public servants is too low. Maybe we just don’t pay enough.

I did read the article but to be honest the round about arguments strike me as almost irrelevant. The email trail in question was after the decision to use private security was made, the CHO was probably getting hundreds of emails a day then and he has already said the fact that it was one line in an email didn't register with him and it also has to be remembered that the request for information to DHHS was for information relating to the decision to use security guards. These emails were after that. The request for them now has nothing to do with the decision, it's about the CHO saying at the Inquiry that he didn't know until May.
I have dealt with Public servants for many years now. There are some who work unbelievably hard and are very effective, there are some who are along for a nice cushy existence and there are those who work hard but are ineffective because their main focus is the bureaucracy and process not the outcome. In my view we have too many of the last one and I have seen that system crush talented people who get too frustrated and leave.
All I can tell you is that I know a lot of people around this and most of them are very critical of a number of government departments and their role over the last 7 months or so. Noone is critical of Brett Sutton who is seen as having done an great job under enormous pressure

 

[larabee]

donuts again today!

 

[Ridley]

Yeah double donuts 2 days in a row. What a great result and lockdown ends tonight. Hopefully everyone is sensible after opening and we can keep this thing at bay and not suffer another interminable lockdown.

Well done the Big V (the vast majority of us anyway).

 

[Sintiger]

Nine/Ipsos poll from today's Age




Preferred premier

Opposition leaders were and still are in a very difficult position. Albanese clearly took the view that it was better to not carp from the background and has been very quiet for the most part. That has hurt him to the extent that he has been out of the limelight but the alternative was to be seen as being whining and negative. My view about O'Brien is that he initially took that path as well but clearly he was put under pressure by morons like Tim Smith to be more aggressive. The result is here for all to see, he is now seen as a negative influence because that is all we saw of him.
There is no doubt the Victorian Government has made mistakes, some of them big, but what is clear is that Victorians have supported what has been done.
My probably forlorn hope is that we can get some bi-partisan actions relating the things that need fixing post this pandemic which primarily relate to the health system in Victoria and the way it is organised and the incredible jurisdictional and practical mess that is aged care nationally.

 

[Tigers of Old]

*smile* awesome stuff Victoria!

 

[mrposhman]

Opposition leaders were and still are in a very difficult position. Albanese clearly took the view that it was better to not carp from the background and has been very quiet for the most part. That has hurt him to the extent that he has been out of the limelight but the alternative was to be seen as being whining and negative. My view about O'Brien is that he initially took that path as well but clearly he was put under pressure by morons like Tim Smith to be more aggressive. The result is here for all to see, he is now seen as a negative influence because that is all we saw of him.
There is no doubt the Victorian Government has made mistakes, some of them big, but what is clear is that Victorians have supported what has been done.
My probably forlorn hope is that we can get some bi-partisan actions relating the things that need fixing post this pandemic which primarily relate to the health system in Victoria and the way it is organised and the incredible jurisdictional and practical mess that is aged care nationally.

I think thats a good description of Andrews government. They have made mistakes but they have also shown very strong leadership to see this out despite pressure from outside, and despite what others are saying, seeing this through and getting cases down to negligible levels, is actually the best thing for the economy.

With cases as low as they are (compared to say re-opening when cases were 50 odd per day) ensures that our economy can get closer to 100% open rather than masybe 50% if cases were still at those levels. We could get to a position where lets say 50k people can go the Boxing Day test, we might be able to get restaurants / bars close to being normal. If we had 50 cases per day ongoing, then this wouldn't occur. Having businesses with low numbers of patrons will only prolong their agony, enabling a much larger re-opening with case numbers low will be a much bigger benefit to businesses rather than opening early and having more restrictions.

 

[DavidSSS]

There are many types of bureaucrats. I do admin and what you need is a smattering of bureaucrats who will just pipe up when needed and say some unpopular things. Doesn't always work (believe me I know, probably wouldn't surprise you I'm the guy at the back saying very unpopular things like - change isn't good, good change is good). You need a few too as it is tiring and you need a few perspectives.

It certainly appears from the outside that the way the bureaucracy works in Victoria needs a good shake up. There is something wrong there when it looks like there was no space to question assumptions like contracting out the security, considering the potential impacts etc.

But, things are looking good at the moment. 2 days of no cases makes a huge impact on the averages:




Everything going down, and currently 87 active cases which is good.

So, here's the numbers for the last 14 days:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
13 October 2020	5	10.71	7.60	10.00
14 October 2020	6	10.29	5.00	9.43
15 October 2020	2	9.14	3.20	9.21
16 October 2020	1	7.29	2.80	8.64
17 October 2020	2	5.86	1.80	8.07
18 October 2020	3	4.29	2.00	7.71
19 October 2020	1	2.86	2.80	6.79
20 October 2020	3	2.57	2.60	6.64
21 October 2020	5	2.43	3.20	6.36
22 October 2020	1	2.29	4.40	5.71
23 October 2020	6	3.00	3.80	5.14
24 October 2020	7	3.71	2.80	4.79
25 October 2020	0	3.29		3.79
26 October 2020	0	3.14		3.00

Just have to be a bit careful with opening up, but nice to see shops will be able to trade again, some home visits and the like. Main area of concern is interactions without masks which means those home visits are going to be the one to watch and restrict if there are issues.

DS