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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
3,042,801 Coronavirus Cases and 1,432 Active in Victoria - COVID Live
Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoriacovidlive.com.au
View attachment 10589
That says 12 new cases, but an increase of 5.
Makes no sense, I'll stick with the DHHS figures, they do adjust previous days/weeks/months numbers so they should add up. The total number of cases is the same as DHHS are saying so I presume the above is taking data from DHHS.
DS
I agree that the way bureaucracies work it is quite likely no-one really knew what was going on.
Once the stories came out about security guards being hired via WhatsApp then alarm bells should have rung.
Add to this the Police seemed to want to have nothing to do with the Hotel Quarantine and you have a problem.
However, this was the biggest issue at the time. Hotel Quarantine would have been pretty much the most important, if not only, government activity that week. Plus, as they keep reminding us, they only had 2 days to sort out the details. That is when a smart government looks around the cabinet table, looks past the factional dumbf***s who are there for their favours delivered within the party, and finds the competent person and appoints them to run the operation and do whatever it takes to make sure there are no f*** ups - then you appoint a very good minder and a very good advisor to help them. A few smart heads who are willing to haul in or ring the relevant bureaucrats and get answers, to make smart decisions, to question absolutely everything and be across the detail.
Also, remember, they were using how many hotels for this? Was it 2, or more? Can't have been that many. This is not a big enough operation to need many people running it.
DS
Once the stories came out about security guards being hired via WhatsApp then alarm bells should have rung.
Add to this the Police seemed to want to have nothing to do with the Hotel Quarantine and you have a problem.
However, this was the biggest issue at the time. Hotel Quarantine would have been pretty much the most important, if not only, government activity that week. Plus, as they keep reminding us, they only had 2 days to sort out the details. That is when a smart government looks around the cabinet table, looks past the factional dumbf***s who are there for their favours delivered within the party, and finds the competent person and appoints them to run the operation and do whatever it takes to make sure there are no f*** ups - then you appoint a very good minder and a very good advisor to help them. A few smart heads who are willing to haul in or ring the relevant bureaucrats and get answers, to make smart decisions, to question absolutely everything and be across the detail.
Also, remember, they were using how many hotels for this? Was it 2, or more? Can't have been that many. This is not a big enough operation to need many people running it.
DS
Spot on David. It can’t have been anywhere near as hard as they made it. Ignorance and incompetence are not excuses.
Now they are all running for cover and pointing the finger. They are treating the inquiry and the Victorian public with contempt.
Heads must roll. I imagine Mikakos will be the first.
The health Union has turned on Mikakos and has advised Andrews that she must be sacked due to her incompetence. I think Andrews will more likely act on this rather than care about what this inquiry comes up with.
For anyone that has missed it.
www.abc.net.au
Health union declares relationship with Victorian Government dead over Minister's 'incompetence'
Victorian Health Minister Jenny Mikakos is under pressure to resign, with the Health Workers Union accusing the Labor Minister of "breathtaking incompetence" and lacking "even a basic understanding of her portfolio".
www.abc.net.au
Nurses union backing Mikakos, HSU calling for her to be sacked. Internal factional crap in the ALP. The unions really need to sever their relationship with the ALP, it is poison as the ALP hacks play politics in the unions.
Not a bad rate of new infections today, averages rumbling around 10 to 20 although the 14 day average takes longer to drop.
By the numbers:
The 14 day average is consistently down but for this to continue we need to start seeing numbers under 10.
DS
Not a bad rate of new infections today, averages rumbling around 10 to 20 although the 14 day average takes longer to drop.
By the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing Ave | 5 Day Centred Ave | 14 Day Trailing Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
20 September 2020 | 11 | 27.71 | 17.20 | 36.14 |
21 September 2020 | 28 | 26.14 | 15.60 | 34.64 |
22 September 2020 | 14 | 22.29 | 15.80 | 30.64 |
23 September 2020 | 12 | 20.43 | | 28.14 |
24 September 2020 | 14 | 16.00 | | 26.29 |
The 14 day average is consistently down but for this to continue we need to start seeing numbers under 10.
DS
It does make sense David and the Covidlive figures are actually the most upto date ones.
Ie. the 5 figures are those that tested positive in the last 24 hours, the other 7 are the reclassfied ones back to dates in July and August mainly. The reclassifications are noise, the real numbers are those cases in the previous 24 hours.
Covidlive figures are different to DHHS figures so I'll stick to DHHS, don't want to go back and change everything or get inconsistency. They seem to be counting things differently.
The 14 day trailing average I get is consistently slightly higher than the figures released by the government, but they are getting closer and tend to get closer after the DHHS update their past numbers each afternoon.
In any case, it is the trend which matters and they all agree on that.
DS
The 14 day trailing average I get is consistently slightly higher than the figures released by the government, but they are getting closer and tend to get closer after the DHHS update their past numbers each afternoon.
In any case, it is the trend which matters and they all agree on that.
DS
We are getting some good traction now.
Sunday restriction easing is a guarantee, interesting to see what additional restrictions are removed. I wonder if the curfew will be removed making the court challenge on Monday pointless. Consistent reductions, the 18th September I think had 83 unknown so a drop to 34 today is excellent. In order to hit the next Step for Step 3 we need to get that number down to 5, so around about a reduction of 1 per day on average across the 14 day period will get us there.
Positive test rate continuing to get better and getting much closer to other states.
Sunday restriction easing is a guarantee, interesting to see what additional restrictions are removed. I wonder if the curfew will be removed making the court challenge on Monday pointless. Consistent reductions, the 18th September I think had 83 unknown so a drop to 34 today is excellent. In order to hit the next Step for Step 3 we need to get that number down to 5, so around about a reduction of 1 per day on average across the 14 day period will get us there.
Positive test rate continuing to get better and getting much closer to other states.
| 7 day MA | VIC multiple | |
| NSW | 0.02% | 5.5 |
| VIC | 0.13% | |
| QLD | 0.01% | 14.8 |
| WA | 0.06% | 2.1 |
| SA | 0.01% | 10.2 |
September 20 (8), September 21 (9) and yesterday (5) were all under 10 if you don't count reclassification. But unfortunately, the reclassified numbers count towards the 14 day average.
I don't think the reclassified numbers do get included.
The DHHS numbers for the roadmap show 25.1 14 day average. I have the data for that time period from covidlive and it also equals 25.1, so the 14 day average is true, not including reclassifications.
They are and thats why they aren't included in the numbers. A few days ago Covidlive showed 5 and think the DHHS official numbers were 7. I saw a number of these, possibly all of them related to positive cases in July and August.
They mainly reclassify numbers in the past week or so, which is understandable. However, the DHHS numbers do get small changes going right back, I only go back to 1 July but occasionally you see some of the new infection figures for early July change.
As for the curfew, I am all in favour of it. How did the virus get out of the quarantine hotels? Apart from the lax security, it was those working at the hotels who went visiting and spread it around. Where are the clusters? The clusters have been around families who have been having family dinners or events and spreading it around at an indoor event. The curfew acts to stop this by not allowing people to go and visit in the evening. If people had stopped visiting in each others' houses, as they were told to, we wouldn't need a curfew. But we do, because too many people ignored the advice.
DS
As for the curfew, I am all in favour of it. How did the virus get out of the quarantine hotels? Apart from the lax security, it was those working at the hotels who went visiting and spread it around. Where are the clusters? The clusters have been around families who have been having family dinners or events and spreading it around at an indoor event. The curfew acts to stop this by not allowing people to go and visit in the evening. If people had stopped visiting in each others' houses, as they were told to, we wouldn't need a curfew. But we do, because too many people ignored the advice.
DS
