Coronavirus

[mrposhman]

Does anyone know what a stage 4 would entail?

I would guess at a minimum all schools will close, all non-essential businesses will close (ie. all but supermarkets, pharmacies, doctors surgeries etc) will close.

Whether there will be anything else, I'm not sure, but I would guess that at a start.

 

[Harry]

Only leave the house for grocery shopping and medical assistance. One member of the family allowed out at a time. All non essential workers to stay home. This would be my guess.

 

[jb03]

They won't do stage 4 IMO.

 

[tigertim]

Did he say how long it could be for?

6 weeks is the tip.

 

[DavidSSS]

Lots of rumours floating around that there will be a move to tougher restrictions. Not surprising really, if you have been anywhere near some bay beaches you will notice it is crowded, in winter. I go for a ride along the beach 3 days a week, on the road well away from everyone, but the number of people on the beach wandering around is absurd, they can't all be from around the local area, the number of cars in the car park testify to that. My partner was driving home today after visiting her brother (he needs assistance, and she was dropping a mask off that she had made) and decided to drive home along the beach. Said it was packed although was happy to be stopped by the police at a road block. The cops were saying the excuses were astounding, all sorts of crap.

As someone above said, the 7 day average is not falling as we have had so many cases recently. Still seeing adjustments in the numbers up to about a week ago, I figure they are correcting the quickly tallied results, anyway here are the numbers from the DHHS:

​	Daily Cases​	7 day trailing ave​
1 July 2020​	72​	​
2 July 2020​	61​	​
3 July 2020​	98​	​
4 July 2020​	68​	​
5 July 2020​	98​	​
6 July 2020​	168​	​
7 July 2020​	123​	98.29​
8 July 2020​	150​	107.14​
9 July 2020​	143​	121.14​
10 July 2020​	291​	148.71​
11 July 2020​	255​	175.43​
12 July 2020​	169​	185.57​
13 July 2020​	250​	197.29​
14 July 2020​	223​	211.57​
15 July 2020​	296​	232.43​
16 July 2020​	386​	267.14​
17 July 2020​	211​	255.71​
18 July 2020​	338​	267.57​
19 July 2020​	266​	281.43​
20 July 2020​	331​	293.00​
21 July 2020​	442​	324.29​
22 July 2020​	379​	336.14​
23 July 2020​	286​	321.86​
24 July 2020​	337​	339.86​
25 July 2020​	423​	352.00​
26 July 2020​	506​	386.29​
27 July 2020​	357​	390.00​
28 July 2020​	277​	366.43​
29 July 2020​	691​	411.00​
30 July 2020​	598​	455.57​
31 July 2020​	397​	464.14​

Along with a graph:



Still going up.

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

They won't do stage 4 IMO.

They must be very worried to do it. The Australian is reporting a Wednesday start, with the announcement tomorrow. 5km movement limit, only supermarkets/pharmacies/servo's allowed to open.

 

[year of the tiger]

Yep they did Stage 4 in North West tassie and they had to close two hospital.

Basically could only leave your house for food or work - and all non essential retail closed, construction stopped.

i can see it happening in Melbourne I am afraid.

 

[waiting]

Here it is.

I’m worried too. Fortunate my mum is less than a km. Moved to be close to her over 3 years ago.

'Numbers are too high': Melbourne faces stage four lockdown within days

Melbourne is on the brink of its toughest COVID-19 rules yet while country Victoria faces stage 4 lockdown.

www.theage.com.au

 

[DavidSSS]

The rumours would clearly be the government and health officials flying a kite, they want to see the reaction. Maybe, just maybe, if people stop going out without a good reason then they might not do it, just threaten.

I reckon the cops on road blocks will be taking note of the number of people and cars out and about tomorrow and the next few days.

The biggest issue with further restrictions is whether people will abide by them. I think that has been the biggest problem with the current restrictions, too many people pushing the limits as far as they possibly can. The question is, will the shock of harder restrictions lead to compliance or defiance?

DS

 

[MD Jazz]

I doubt people are catching it down the beach DS. Or out wLking. Otherwise other states would have cases. It’s pretty simple, other than health workers transmission, people have failed to do the right thing as far as house visits go. When 1 in 4 positives don’t self isolate what hope is there?

Why is NSW not going up like we did? I’ve heard the contact tracing is miles ahead of ours. Something like 17 teams of 10 focusing on tracing. Was told we had one team of 7 at one stAge. Not sure if true but we’ve been doing things differently down here from the start and royally *smile* it.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

The rumours would clearly be the government and health officials flying a kite, they want to see the reaction. Maybe, just maybe, if people stop going out without a good reason then they might not do it, just threaten.

If we're getting locked down for six weeks as rumoured, people will be out and about, stocking up. Expect another run on toilet paper.

 

[DavidSSS]

I doubt people are catching it down the beach DS. Or out wLking. Otherwise other states would have cases. It’s pretty simple, other than health workers transmission, people have failed to do the right thing as far as house visits go. When 1 in 4 positives don’t self isolate what hope is there?

Why is NSW not going up like we did? I’ve heard the contact tracing is miles ahead of ours. Something like 17 teams of 10 focusing on tracing. Was told we had one team of 7 at one stAge. Not sure if true but we’ve been doing things differently down here from the start and royally *smile* it.

I, too, doubt people are catching it down the beach, but it is an indication of how many people are traveling around and my limited experience outside these 4 walls means I ain't seen much else. If they're going to the beach, are they also going out visiting? Who knows.

Our contact tracing wasn't good enough, but now I think there are too many cases for contact tracing to be viable. If that is the case then the only alternative is quarantine, which means stricter lockdown.

L2R2R, yep, there will be crowds out tomorrow stocking up on whatever strange things come into people's heads. Pity as I actually do need to get to a hardware store.

DS

 

[Tigers of Old]

They must be very worried to do it. The Australian is reporting a Wednesday start, with the announcement tomorrow. 5km movement limit, only supermarkets/pharmacies/servo's allowed to open.

You need to stop getting all your news* from Murdoch.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

You need to stop getting all your news* from Murdoch.

They're the only ones reporting details. The article was written by the newspaper's politics editor. I expect it has some credence.

Although I do note that some of the details have been removed from the initial report.

 

[Tigers of Old]

They're the only ones reporting details. The article was written by the newspaper's politics editor. I expect it has some credence.

Time ill tell if it's right.

 

[waiting]

The rumours would clearly be the government and health officials flying a kite, they want to see the reaction. Maybe, just maybe, if people stop going out without a good reason then they might not do it, just threaten.

I reckon the cops on road blocks will be taking note of the number of people and cars out and about tomorrow and the next few days.

The biggest issue with further restrictions is whether people will abide by them. I think that has been the biggest problem with the current restrictions, too many people pushing the limits as far as they possibly can. The question is, will the shock of harder restrictions lead to compliance or defiance?

DS

Who knows DS.

Today we will find out.

 

[Ridley]

Apparently 650 new cases and 12 deaths today. Nearly 4 weeks into lockdown and it’s getting worse not better. The next phase of restrictions are inevitable. It’ll be interesting to see how far they go

Buckle up.

 

[mrposhman]

Apparently 650 new cases and 12 deaths today. Nearly 4 weeks into lockdown and it’s getting worse not better. The next phase of restrictions are inevitable. It’ll be interesting to see how far they go

Buckle up.

Yikes. 650 is huge.

I'll be looking out for the details of what Stage 4 might look like particularly around care arrangements. I share my kids 50/50 with their mum, who will have them next week, but she lives around 20-25km away. I hope there will be an allowance for care arrangements for kids.

 

[Ridley]

Yikes. 650 is huge.

I'll be looking out for the details of what Stage 4 might look like particularly around care arrangements. I share my kids 50/50 with their mum, who will have them next week, but she lives around 20-25km away. I hope there will be an allowance for care arrangements for kids.

I’m sure there will be Posh. To not allow parents access to their kids in a split care arrangement would be downright cruel and unjust.

 

[year of the tiger]

The rumours would clearly be the government and health officials flying a kite, they want to see the reaction. Maybe, just maybe, if people stop going out without a good reason then they might not do it, just threaten.

I reckon the cops on road blocks will be taking note of the number of people and cars out and about tomorrow and the next few days.

The biggest issue with further restrictions is whether people will abide by them. I think that has been the biggest problem with the current restrictions, too many people pushing the limits as far as they possibly can. The question is, will the shock of harder restrictions lead to compliance or defiance?

DS

I reckon it’s to late for Kite flying in Vic - the figures haven’t dropped over the weekend when on most weekends they normally do.