It would be helpful if the Vic government would provide more info around the numbers, sure a spike to 75 sounds high, but if they have been testing more its not necessarily that there is a spiralling caseload.
Positive test data versus total testing data would be useful to assess where we are at in Vic. The spike today was expected due to the increased level of testing over the weekend.
There is a lot of info out there, but there is always a lag between finding cases and being able to give an evidence based answer on where the cases originate.
Anyway, in terms of testing and cases, you can find the data here:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...w-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704?nw=0
Unfortunately the graphs don't seem to be linkable, go about a third of the way down the page and you can get testing data and just below that tests versus new cases.
For Australia tests and cases are rising.
NSW: recent rise in tests and barely any movement on cases
Vic: big rise in tests and cases
QLD: rise in tests off a low base and no movement in cases.
WA: recent fall in tests but off a high base and cases low but not totally gone.
SA: tests have dropped a little but no cases for a while, tests still at a reasonable level though
ACT: test rate more stable and slightly increasing but no new cases
TAS: tests down a little but from a high base, no new cases.
NT: tests steadily rising but no new cases.
So, everyone is testing but cases are being found in Vic at the moment. Hard to say whether they will increase elsewhere, hard to say if there are undetected outbreaks elsewhere unless people get sick and that leads to testing of those who have been in contact with the sick.
In terms of cases per 100,000 residents Victoria is rising but still lower than Tas and NSW.
0.3% of people tested in Australia have tested positive, Victoria is right on the national average and Tas, NSW and ACT are the only states/territories above this average.
Tests per 100,000 residents are highest in Vic (about 11,500), followed by NSW, National average, Tas, SA, QLD, ACT, WA and NT.
You would have to say, given all that, that Victoria is not doing well at the moment but it would not accord with the evidence to say that similar rates of infection are not happening interstate. Are we unlucky that we have found the infections here, or are the other states getting less new infections? There is evidence we are getting more new infections in Victoria, what is not conclusive is whether there are infections not found elsewhere (not surprising given proving something isn't happening is always hard).
The above is yet another reason not to continue the defunding of the ABC.
DS