China

[Nico]

Don't for a second think the authorities in China aren't able to track who has uploaded/copied the video. That's not just in China either.

I concur. I've made the call never to visit China or HK again. Too dangerous with their arbitrary detention laws. Who knows, I could be black banned due to speaking out against the CCP.

As a sidelight, I still have a WeChat account from when I use to do business in China. I changed my profile pic to the "tank man" photo expecting my account to be deleted. It wasn't...I was surprised.

 

[AngryAnt]

Aah, the rights of the people living in the Republic of China today are what is important you say? Ok, now, lets be clear about this, the Republic of China, according to their own constitution, includes all of the mainland, the capital is Nanjing and the number plates define Taiwan as one province. The constitution also lays claim to the mainland. Taiwan does not even define itself as a separate country to China.

If the Republic of China government, currently located in the temporary capital of Taipei, attempted to change the constitution to formally separate from the rest of China (The People's Republic) then it would very likely lead to the People's Republic invading the Republic. Even the US knows this as they stopped the ruling party in Taiwan from changing the constitution earlier in the 2000s because it would provoke a war.

But let's look at this from a strategic point of view.

Your proposed strategy is to invoke an act of self-determination on the part of the Republic of China, which everyone knows will provoke the People's Republic to invade. On this there is little or no disagreement. In terms of the right to self determination, the Taiwanese know full well that the best course of action is to leave the status quo and avoid war. War has this tendency you seem to miss that it tramples all over self determination. In fact, the current strategy has worked to avoid those living in Taiwan from being invaded, killed and having their cities leveled. It's all well and good to sit comfortably thousands of miles away in Southern Australia and spout platitudes about self-determination, its not you who will be in the firing line. In any case, the Republic of China is going along quite well and I reckon they would really prefer not to have a confrontation with the People's Republic. Yes, they're kicking the can down the road along with everyone else, but it sure beats getting invaded, they retain far more self-determination if they can continue this than if they provoke China.

Not dissimilar to Ukraine really. Your suggested strategy is to use small countries to provoke large nearby military powers, in order to further geopolitical goals, and then wash your hands of the outcomes. Unless your strategy is to provoke the large military power (be it Russia or China) and back it up with serious military intervention which would likely lead to a nuclear confrontation, or at the very least a confrontation between massively armed nuclear powers, then your proposed strategy is a recipe for war and possible nuclear war.

Your high horse is a nice place to be, but you are not thinking through the very likely outcomes of such a strategy.

If you really want to further limit the self determination of those who live in the Republic of China, then provoke the People's Republic.

None of us like this but it is the way the world works at the moment and provoking nasty wars is no solution.

DS

This is all very interesting, strays into the realms of fantasy when describing my "proposed solution" and then mounts the very high horse you accuse me of riding, but OK, all's fair in forums and war I guess. Don't recall actually proposing a solution - I note in all your thousands of words about China and Russia neither have you, except handwavy BS like "give Putin more carrots and less stick". Be interested to know your solution that guarantees the independence of Taiwan but I'm sure you don't have one.

This is the realpolitik situation dude - if the US does not flag its support of Taiwan, then the Chinese invasion would be on. The act of self-determination on the part of the Taiwanese people is to accept this support, fortify their country as best they can, and wait for the day when the US does eventually abandon the Asia Pacific, which likely will happen at some point. We all resist tyranny in our own ways, as best we can, for as long as we can. Well, some of us try anyway. Others just roll over and say "oh well, waddya gonna do".

Your more fantastical assertions about my "proposed solutions" I consign to the dustbin of forum history.

 

[AngryAnt]

Taiwan is not deferring to the bully, they are choosing to co-exist with the bully as opposed to being left in a bloody mess behind the shelter shed after provoking the bully. Their big friend has clearly stated they won't come to the rescue if the bully attacks.

Choosing to co-exist with the bully by maintaining their soveriegnty and independence is standing up the bully mate,

PS you got the last part wrong too Mr "I'm So Good at History and Analysis". A more nuanced analysis is that the US is strategically ambiguous about what it would and wouldn't do. It's very deliberately unclear.

Would the U.S. defend Taiwan if China invades? Biden said yes. But it's complicated

President Biden has said the U.S. is committed to defending Taiwan, but Washington has traditionally stayed strategically ambiguous. Here's why.

www.npr.org

Anyway, footy's on, Go Tiges.

 

[DavidSSS]

Ant, you keep talking about self determination as if it is some sort of trump card that can be pulled out to stop everyone in their tracks and concede that , yes, we should give them a chance to determine their own fate. But the reality is that no country has unrestricted room to move. This includes the USA who always tread carefully around any other nuclear power, with bloody good reason, but it is still a limit on their actions.

You can't say that Taiwan and Ukraine should be given the right to self determination and then claim it isn't your solution - it was your suggestion. Nice suggestion, just not going to happen. In any case: pot, kettle, black - you keep claiming I am some sort of major supporter of Putin on the basis that I reckon resolving any situation involves actually trying to work out the thinking of both sides of the conflict. Otherwise the conflict continues. Geez, in the other thread you claim I blame the USA 100% for the Ukraine situation just because I mentioned their analysis that the Ukraine War will continue for the rest of the year. Talk about extrapolating, I know I am no match for your ability to extrapolate outlandish claims, I'll concede defeat on the ability to twist meaning.

As for the independence of Taiwan, independence from what exactly? The country they claim to be part of? Taiwan has done very well, they know they are considered part of China, they have never had recognition from most of the world, even when China was far weaker no-one actually claimed Taiwan was independent of China. There are far better links between Taiwan and China these days, Taiwan can keep what independence they currently have as a breakaway part of China not subject to the central government if they make it disadvantageous to China to try and take Taiwan back. Standing up to the bully would be declaring independence, no, this is choosing to co-exist.

As for the USA, what Biden said was posturing. Posturing has its uses, but both China and The USA know that if it really came down to a confrontation the USA would avoid an actual war against China as China is a substantial nuclear power. It is wise to avoid war between nuclear powers, it is also wise not to rule it out, hence the posturing.

DS

 

[AngryAnt]

Actually I don't talk about self-determination that way at all, just read my last post.

 

[shad]

Cracks are starting to appear in the CCP. Authorative regimes don't last for ever. The ruling party's legitimacy is being undermined on a number of fronts at the moment.

 

[DavidSSS]

Not quite sure how Taiwan is apparently maintaining their sovereignty when they don't claim to be a separate country to China but whatevs.

Shad, I really can't work out why the Chinese regime is so hell bent on trying to suppress COVID, they really are pissing off the population and there will be plenty of people in the CCP pointing this out. Not just a silly strategy in terms of the pandemic, also a silly strategy full stop. Weird, but might indicate too much power vested in the leader, also never a good strategy.

DS

 

[shad]

Not quite sure how Taiwan is apparently maintaining their sovereignty when they don't claim to be a separate country to China but whatevs.

Shad, I really can't work out why the Chinese regime is so hell bent on trying to suppress COVID, they really are pissing off the population and there will be plenty of people in the CCP pointing this out. Not just a silly strategy in terms of the pandemic, also a silly strategy full stop. Weird, but might indicate too much power vested in the leader, also never a good strategy.

DS

I can't quite figure it out either. The obvious analysis is that the Government have painted themselves into a corner with zero Covid and now feel that their legitimacy is tethered to continual success. That this success is seen as emblematic of their superiority to the West. However I don't think this is really the crux of the matter.

Corrupt, totalitarian regimes have a limited life expectancy in general. And the longer they govern the less able they are to react to a crisis effectively. Even if we are only counting the post-Communist period we are looking at over 40 years of continual control. That's a long time and their reaction to every event now is just to ratchet up control. They know no other way.

What I do know is that when the Chinese Government collapses there will be shock from all sides. This is because the entire cohort of media, intelligence people and foreign players will be looking at the situation from the top down. But the end will emerge from a combination of the cracks in social cohesion that we are seeing now and an economic crisis that may be just around the corner.

 

[MD Jazz]

But the end will emerge from a combination of the cracks in social cohesion that we are seeing now and an economic crisis that may be just around the corner.

Their housing bubble is beyond the level of any other country. That might be the economic crisis just around the corner. Although it has been in this position for a while.

Soft Or Hard? China’s Property Sector Is Coming In For A Landing

China’s government is trying to persuade the rest of the world that the property crash is well in hand, everyone’s money is safe, and the growth narrative will resume after the commercial break.

www.forbes.com

What Doomed China’s Much-Anticipated Property Market Reform Plan?

Once again, China’s government failed to approve a property tax law, seen as a key part of reforming the real estate sector.

thediplomat.com

 

[shad]

Their housing bubble is beyond the level of any other country. That might be the economic crisis just around the corner. Although it has been in this position for a while.

Soft Or Hard? China’s Property Sector Is Coming In For A Landing

China’s government is trying to persuade the rest of the world that the property crash is well in hand, everyone’s money is safe, and the growth narrative will resume after the commercial break.

www.forbes.com

What Doomed China’s Much-Anticipated Property Market Reform Plan?

Once again, China’s government failed to approve a property tax law, seen as a key part of reforming the real estate sector.

thediplomat.com

That's the obvious one. It's significant because it will affect the upwardly mobile middle-class, who are harder to imprison/shoot. I think at this point in time the Government still has enough cash to solve problems of this size if they can calibrate the political response correctly. We may have o wait a little longer.

At the other end of the social ladder it is always food supply/costs that causes unrest. It's a shame the Chinese don't eat more bread.

 

[AngryAnt]

Not quite sure how Taiwan is apparently maintaining their sovereignty when they don't claim to be a separate country to China but whatevs.

See what you have here Dave is two competing claims of sovereignty - but the democratic state of Taiwan has actual sovereignty over the island. It is a head-scratcher, at least for some people anyway.

 

[DavidSSS]

See what you have here Dave is two competing claims of sovereignty - but the democratic state of Taiwan has actual sovereignty over the island. It is a head-scratcher, at least for some people anyway.

Taiwan is not claiming sovereignty, if they did they would be invaded, hence the bind. They are the occupying power on that island, but the island remains part of China.

The competing claims of sovereignty are for the whole of China. Just one side lost that one in 1949.

Taiwan has managed to maintain autonomy for a long time, they're not stupid enough to rock the boat.

DS

 

[spook]

'New cold war' in the South Pacific exposed - Pearls and Irritations

Preened on the global stage for standing up to Beijing, the Morrison government has now been shown to have little influence in the region

johnmenadue.com

 

[spook]

It's a shame the Chinese don't eat more bread.

I read an article the other day asking whether the need for communal cooperation in irrigating and managing rice paddies, compared with the opportunity for individual wealth presented by wheat, caused Asian populaces to be more amenable to communism and general social conformity than Westerners.

Recent studies find that rice cultures are more interdependent than herding cultures and wheat-farming cultures. In China, people from rice-farming areas think more holistically and show less implicit individualism than people from wheat-farming areas. These differences are mirrored in micro-level comparisons of neighboring counties differ in rice versus wheat. Research has also found evidence of cultural differences based on rice farming within Japan and around the world.

Emerging evidence of cultural differences linked to rice versus wheat agriculture - PubMed

Roughly four billion people live in cultures with a legacy of rice farm. Recent studies find that rice cultures are more interdependent than herding cultures and wheat-farming cultures. In China, people from rice-farming areas think more holistically and show less implicit individualism than...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

It's fascinating how history and culture is shaped, often by factors we would consider incidental, like rice versus wheat, or that grains themselves domesticated us, leading to a change from nomad lifestyle to villages, storing grain, having more children, keeping cats as vermin control, etc. A pebble on a hill can change the course of a river.

 

[AngryAnt]

Taiwan is not claiming sovereignty, if they did they would be invaded, hence the bind. They are the occupying power on that island, but the island remains part of China.

Ok, they are not claiming sovereignty.

The competing claims of sovereignty are for the whole of China. Just one side lost that one in 1949.

Oh now they are claiming sovereignty.

 

[DavidSSS]

Yeah right Ant, you know exactly what I meant - Taiwan is not claiming sovereignty of the island separate to mainland China and to become a separate sovereign state, but technically they do claim sovereignty over the whole of China including the mainland. Which is a little problematic really, it certainly gives China a pretext (yeah a weak pretext) to reclaim that island which is threatens them by claiming all of China. That pretext ain't going far though as no-one believes that China is threatened by Taiwan. Of course, if there is internal dissent in China which weakens the mainland regime, then all of that may change.

DS

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Ok, they are not claiming sovereignty.

Oh now they are claiming sovereignty.

Yeah right Ant, you know exactly what I meant - Taiwan is not claiming sovereignty of the island separate to mainland China and to become a separate sovereign state, but technically they do claim sovereignty over the whole of China including the mainland. Which is a little problematic really, it certainly gives China a pretext (yeah a weak pretext) to reclaim that island which is threatens them by claiming all of China. That pretext ain't going far though as no-one believes that China is threatened by Taiwan. Of course, if there is internal dissent in China which weakens the mainland regime, then all of that may change.

DS

 

[AngryAnt]

View attachment 15293

Gold

 

[Tigers of Old]

China's Foreign Minister speaks about resetting relations with Australia during final leg of Pacific tour

Wang Yi makes comments about China–Australia relations to members of the Chinese media while visiting Papua New Guinea, as he rounds out an eight-country tour of the Pacific where many deals were signed.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting but I still don't entirely trust them. China will always do what's best for China.

 

[Baloo]

China's Foreign Minister speaks about resetting relations with Australia during final leg of Pacific tour

Wang Yi makes comments about China–Australia relations to members of the Chinese media while visiting Papua New Guinea, as he rounds out an eight-country tour of the Pacific where many deals were signed.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting but I still don't entirely trust them. China will always do what's best for China.

As Australia will do what's best for Australia. Let's just hope those negotiating are genuinely looking at the long term benefits for Australia and not trying to find a nice wedge or headline in The Australian about how tough they are.