spook said:
Was thinking the same spook, but then.......nuh!! Dogs surely can't lose this at the Dump.
-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
AFL Betting Thread
- Thread starter palmyscum
- Start date
Was thinking the same spook, but then.......nuh!! Dogs surely can't lose this at the Dump.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
Leysy is mega keen to keep making money off the overrating of the hawks.
Saints to win @ $2.70 and the line of 15.5 pts.
Saints to win @ $2.70 and the line of 15.5 pts.
Leysy Days said:
oops....geez Leysy Boy, the game was in Tassie. Saints don't even know what the G looks like nowadays.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
so this MCG undefeated all-upper of mine has hit a snag.
The bookies are onto us :theyareontome, and we are way unders.
$1.15 against Freo. You'de get better value on Winx in a Welter.
The risk/return on that is entirely untenable, forcing me into a blink.
Not sure what to do, although I got options.
Do I introduce a 30% rule and only go in >$1.3, which maybe 5 more times?
Even if I trawl for value in the futures (GF quinellas, premierships, dusty brownlow/premiership doubles) I see nothing.
The bookies have woken up with pounding hearts, and restricted my trade.
Not sure what to do.
One thing I know is this: Uncertainty is punting death. (my inclination is to try enhance value and chase margins, which are a world of pain IMHO. This is how bookies make money)
Therefore, I am going to sit tight and wait for the unexpected. Something like a flat week and unexpected loss against someone like North, then $2.5 against WC the week after?
anyway, im gonna sit on my hands and wait for the bookies to nod off again.
The bookies are onto us :theyareontome, and we are way unders.
$1.15 against Freo. You'de get better value on Winx in a Welter.
The risk/return on that is entirely untenable, forcing me into a blink.
Not sure what to do, although I got options.
Do I introduce a 30% rule and only go in >$1.3, which maybe 5 more times?
Even if I trawl for value in the futures (GF quinellas, premierships, dusty brownlow/premiership doubles) I see nothing.
The bookies have woken up with pounding hearts, and restricted my trade.
Not sure what to do.
One thing I know is this: Uncertainty is punting death. (my inclination is to try enhance value and chase margins, which are a world of pain IMHO. This is how bookies make money)
Therefore, I am going to sit tight and wait for the unexpected. Something like a flat week and unexpected loss against someone like North, then $2.5 against WC the week after?
anyway, im gonna sit on my hands and wait for the bookies to nod off again.
Smart idea. I still think we’ll win though. But skinny odds and *smile* can happen in a game.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
RoarEmotion said:
Yeah we'll win.
But we are only ever an early knock on a knee to knankers away from a losing
And no way does $1.15 cover that risk.
I used to profit picking the week when tigers became giant killers,
So i know that game.
MD Jazz said:
Punting lesson. When it is too good to be true it is too good to be true.
And Geelong are not a betting conveyance. Other than laying them when favourites.
I don't rate Sydney, think North will serve it up to them this week.
easy said:
Am thinking the same so am skipping the Freo game. You are right on avoiding margins with AFL or, indeed, most sports betting.
If you want to still funnel cash Richmond's way, I suggest you look ahead to round 23 and take Richmond at 1.40 v Footscray. If Richmond are still undefeated at the G by then, which was the original plan (which I have tailed), then you can be sure they will be 1.15 by then. Plus, Footscray are crap.
MD Jazz said:
These two lines are contrasting themselves, BUT, it is known that the $wan$ are having trouble winning in their own Sardine Cricket Ground home, so sounds like a good bet.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
scottyturnerscurse said:
a bit fraught at 40% I reckon STC.
we could be 3 games clear on top and rest 5 Nank, Jack, Dusty, Cotch, Rance (unlikely I know).
Up to my neck in high value futures already fully paid for by the filthy bookies, so im going just going to take stock for a fortnight and enjoy the footy I reckon.
probably have a couple of 2 digit novelty bets like George for most goals (Im certain hes on the verge of 7-8)
Its a joyful time to be a tiger. good punting to all :fing32
edit. think I found one of the vestiges of value on tigers 2018 = Chimp for EW for the brownlow @ 50's
easy said:
The bye after round 23 means it's unlikely there would be wholesale resting, otherwise it's a two-week break between games. Also, there's a decent chance the Doggies' finals chances are shot so everyone is in for early surgery.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
I know its a long way to go, and they have 5-6 AA standard players out
But the signs for GWS arent good.
They have a heart like a hummingbird.
normally, I'd rejoice in this.
But I was kinda hoping to pay off my mortgage, in cash, in my tigers jumper, on brownlow monday
maybe the bookies had access to a sporting cardiologist's data?
Is, as I have said from the outset (stephen jurica I think was the comparison I used, but that was tough on jurica), Patton the most pissweak big in the game?
But the signs for GWS arent good.
They have a heart like a hummingbird.
normally, I'd rejoice in this.
But I was kinda hoping to pay off my mortgage, in cash, in my tigers jumper, on brownlow monday
maybe the bookies had access to a sporting cardiologist's data?
Is, as I have said from the outset (stephen jurica I think was the comparison I used, but that was tough on jurica), Patton the most pissweak big in the game?
E
easy_tiger
Guest
the bookies consider the Tigers essentially invincible from every possible angle, for the remainder of 2018.
we just have to ;D and enjoy the ride.
we just have to ;D and enjoy the ride.
