A Preseason Preview - Part 6 of 16 - Carlton

[tigersnake]

This is the first one of your assessments that have clashed with mine Phanto, while you are not necessarily wrong, what you take to be depth across the board, I take to be mediocrity.

I had 'em for bottom 4, but I have to disclose a bias, I hate Carlton, have always hated Carlton and will always hate Carlton far more than I hate any other side.

 

[pahoffm]

Yes I hate Carlton too, more than the other sides.
But only a fool trips over the same stone twice.
I've learnt to respect them since being knocked over by them in '72 and '82.
The club is generally very well run. Has money to spend when it needs to. And doesn't stay down for very long.

Circa 1977, early on bottom of the ladder. Sacked Ian Stewart as coach, replaced him and almost made the finals that year. Made the finals in '78, won the premiership in '79.

Had a Boardroom brawl in 1980. Harris left with Jezza. By '81 they'd recovered again to win the premiership.

Refitted their side to win the '87 premiership.

Went through almost a whole cycle again to win in '95.

Recycled again to get close in 2000/2001 before Elliot ruined the club. But not for long, they're on their way back.

We can continue to laugh at them, ignoring their improvements. Remember that we've played them twice in the last 2 years and they've beaten us both times. If we choose to laugh at Carlton we may in fact be laughing at ourselves.

Better to watch, assess, and learn.

 

[CHF]

Phantom,

you have identified the strengths and weakness as you see them, what if you take those observations and then compare them to your own list to see how richmond would shape up?

You see good covering depth for Carlton but not a high level of quality and a weakness at CHF. do Richmond have the personel to exploit that? would the tiger's lack of KPP's be exposed by the eveness of carltons list?.....

Some interesting thoughts when you look at strengths and weaknessess

 

[mb64]

Even after Carey left North Pagan was able to make North competitve.Why do some think that he won't be able to do it at Carlton again this year?I think he will & they could surprise.

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom,

you have identified the strengths and weakness as you see them, what if you take those observations and then compare them to your own list to see how richmond would shape up?

You see good covering depth for Carlton but not a high level of quality and a weakness at CHF. do Richmond have the personel to exploit that? would the tiger's lack of KPP's be exposed by the eveness of carltons list?.....

Some interesting thoughts when you look at strengths and weaknessess

That's an excellent proposition, chf. It's an aspect I obviously haven't looked at yet. I must admit I'm flat out just trying to cover the areas that I am.

Maybe it might be more relevant during the season on a game by game basis as a preview for that round.

A great suggestion. Thank you chf.

 

[Archibald]

Excellent assessment !!!

Great research, great arguments but i hope you are wrong. Boy do i hope you are wrong!!

Anyway keep them coming and don't worry about what we all think. To me its reads like the work of an individual who knows what he's on about !! 

Good Stuff.... The truth does hurt at times but we need it ...

To me it reads like someone who thinks he knows what he's on about.

 

[tiger in the night]

Carlton's pre-Kernahan history has taught me that Carlton don't always need classy forwards to succeed. They won the '79 premiership with Peter Brown, Swan McKay and Mary Maclure. Fitzpatrick had to move to CHF in both the '79 & '82 GFs to get the Carlton forward half going. They've always relied on their mosquito fleets of runners to create enough opportunities, whether it was the 60s, 70s or 80s.

But they always have had, until now, excellent key defenders and defensive flankers. Southby, Doull, McKay, Perovic, Silvagni, Hall, Hunter, Harmes, McKay the latter, just to name a few. I believe this is where Carlton will rise or fall.

.......

This is where Carlton's improvement will come from.

I'm not sure I can agree that because a club has a history of a certain style of play or type of team structure that future teams will succeed following the same recipe. Especially with Pagan coaching.

But I do agree on the matter of Lappin - although I was hoping we would get him at the time.

 

[pahoffm]

Excellent assessment !!!

Great research, great arguments but i hope you are wrong. Boy do i hope you are wrong!!

Anyway keep them coming and don't worry about what we all think. To me its reads like the work of an individual who knows what he's on about !! 

Good Stuff.... The truth does hurt at times but we need it ...

To me it reads like someone who thinks he knows what he's on about.

Many thanks Archibald,

I'm looking forward to someday seeing something from you that might show that you know what you're talking about.

Touche!

 

[CHF]

Thats fine Phantom, I know it will be more work but I was thinking of smomething simple.

I went back to have a look at your assessment of Richmond.

Your only real strength seems to be in your HB line although you seem to be casting around for a permanent CHB. forward of that you lack experience although with the inclusion of Simmons that will help in this area. Compared to what shows up in Carlton's list, unless you have had some players really come on during the off-season i think you would be hard pressed to hold the blues in a lot of positions. One place that they have a lot of tallent is down the back and Pagan builds teams this way. solid defence and run out of there all day controlling the ball and plonk it long into the paddock where the likes of pavlova will look for the grab.

 

[Curtiger]

I see alot of players in the 'Development' stage. This isn't a positive. It's a prospect. Let's face it. The bulk of these "Developing" players end up as duds or pea hearts.

I also see a fair few referrals to statistics. These rarely reflect most of what players achieve in matches. A player might look good on paper, but be nothing more than a paper tiger.

I think that Carlton need another year or so to get back in the game.

 

[Tom_Hafey]

Enjoyed reading your summation Phantom as usual.

Watch for Whitnall this year he is primed for a big one either up forward or down back, will make a difference to the blues this year.

The blues will improve, but by how much is the question, I strongly believe that the eight is well within there grasp but top 4 is just too much and as you said they would need a CHF playing out of his skin to do it and not even a brilliant playing Whitnall could I see them getting to top 4.

Kouta will also have a greater impact this year than last and something would have to go tragically wrong for them somewhere for them to drop further down the ladder.

Never underestimate the blues they are resilient and never stay down for long. Pagan is a great coach, he's building them, he knows what he is doing, he can build stability in a side and maintain it. They'll be better than alot expect by the sounds of some of the posts on this board.

 

[momentai]

Another good read thanks Phanto but I can't see the Blues doing as well as you predict.Maybe with Simmo and Knobel but I don't think their forwards will kick enough goals.

 

[cmarkidis]

Yes I hate Carlton too, more than the other sides.
But only a fool trips over the same stone twice.
I've learnt to respect them since being knocked over by them in '72 and '82.
The club is generally very well run. Has money to spend when it needs to. And doesn't stay down for very long.

Circa 1977, early on bottom of the ladder. Sacked Ian Stewart as coach, replaced him and almost made the finals that year. Made the finals in '78, won the premiership in '79.

Had a Boardroom brawl in 1980. Harris left with Jezza. By '81 they'd recovered again to win the premiership.

Refitted their side to win the '87 premiership.

Went through almost a whole cycle again to win in '95.

Recycled again to get close in 2000/2001 before Elliot ruined the club. But not for long, they're on their way back.

We can continue to laugh at them, ignoring their improvements. Remember that we've played them twice in the last 2 years and they've beaten us both times. If we choose to laugh at Carlton we may in fact be laughing at ourselves.

Better to watch, assess, and learn.

I'm sure you understand, Phantom, that the parameters have changed today as compared to 10, 20, 30 years ago. A lot of your arguement is based on a very well run club over the years. On that score, you have no argument from me. If only our STUPID club was half as well run over the last 30 years we'd need a bigger trophy cabinet.

That said, today is a completely different ball game. No longer are the Blues the rich club they were in the VFL days. No longer can the Blues go out and buy the best CHF, CHB, centreman, etc, in Australia when the need arose. What will hurt Carlton more than anything else will be losing their draft picks in the year they would have had the 1st 2 picks. That reads Goddard & Wells, and whoever they picked up with their 2nd round picks. (My heart bleeds for the pr*cks!)

The only thing Carlton has going for it is one of the best coaches in the capper at the helm. He himself will sqeeze out a handful of additional wins. The negative is that Pagan is not far off 60. How long will his competative juices keep burning? It maybe the case of Pagan setting the scene for the next bloke.

I agree, its better to respect the pr*cks and learn than to ignore. However, it won't be as easy for them as it used to be. I'd like to know how many of their supporters would stick if they had a prolonged period of pain (like us). And remember, if the AFL ever went the way of the EPL and had open slatter, then not 1 Victorian team will ever make the top 4.

 

[tigachick36]

I'd like to know how many of their supporters would stick if they had a prolonged period of pain (like us).

THEY WOULDNT

 

[cmarkidis]

I'd like to know how many of their supporters would stick if they had a prolonged period of pain (like us).

THEY WOULDNT

I agree. I've spoken to Carlton supporters (I should say barrackers, because they refused to renew their memberships) who have jumped off after only a couple of bad years.

 

[The Mighty Wozman]

I personally believe that the Tigers have a better list than Carlton...even last year I thought this. The bottom line is that Pagan has the ability to extract determination and performance out of the most ordinary player....Look at how many "ordinary" players he turned arund at the Roos...
Wallace WILL be the difference. PS It would be good to beat Carlton...I don't think we have beaten them since 2001 - is this right??

 

[pahoffm]

Hi chf,
Had a go from 2 aspects:
1) A conservative usual Richmond
2) A different aspect

There are many factors governing comparisons of players outside age, height and weight. Some are playing style, speed, games played, goalkicking abilities but it becomes very hard to quantify these things on this message board. Please don't interpret these ommissions as ignorance. It's just that somethings are hard to put on paper.

3 areas that concerned me greatly were:
1) Who to run on Stevens
2) Who to run on Koutoufides knowing that Gaspar, who usually did it, isn't the player he was.
3) Who matches up on Fevola, though short at 188cm, he has amazing strength at 97kg.

Carlton v a usual Richmond

B: Teague 23,186,86 Livingstone 22,190,94 Thornton 21,189,93
F: Krakouer 22,174,77 Richardson 30,196,105 Stafford 30,203,105
                       
HB: Wiggins 22,186,86 Prendergast 24,192,96 Waite 22,191,94
HF: Pettifer 23,184,84 Simmonds 26,196,97 Campbell 32,189,88  
                         
C: Walker 18,189,83 Stevens 25,180,86 Koutoufides 32,190,100
C: Tivendale 25,186,86 Coughlan 22,187,88 Jackson 18,187,87
                 
HF: Whitnall 25,190,99 Morrell 25,191,91 Lappin 29,181,76
HB: Bowden 26,188,90 Graham 32,190,90 Hyde 22,184,81
                 
F: De Luca 21,202,95 Fevola 24,188,97 Houlihan 23,185,82
B: Hall 24,196,97 Gaspar 28,193,90 Chaffey 27,180,82
                     
R: French 29,200,103 Scotland 24,181,81 Camporeale 29,180,79
R: Knobel 24,202,102 Johnson 26,186,86 Brown 27,183,80
       
Int: Johnson 23,178,83 Bentick 19,184,80 Davies 21,184,79 Clarke 24,183,83
Int: Rodan 21,171,82 Newman 22,183,84 Hartigan 19,180,74 AKellaway 29,190,90

Carlton v a different Richmond
1) We don't really know when Coughlan will recommence playing so I've left him out till I know.
2) I'd like to give Richardson the same freedom that VanderHaar and Briedis had late in their careers on a HFF.
3) I've still left out some junior players who I believe will be better off in the resies.

B: Teague 23,186,86 Livingstone 22,190,94 Thornton 21,189,93
F: Krakouer 22,174,77 Campbell 32,189,88 Stafford 30,203,105
                       
HB: Wiggins 22,186,86 Prendergast 24,192,96 Waite 22,191,94
HF: Rodan 21,171,82 Simmonds 26,196,97 Richardson 30,196,105  
                         
C: Walker 18,189,83 Stevens 25,180,86 Koutoufides 32,190,100
C: Deledio 18,188,81 Brown 27,183,80 Jackson 18,187,87
                 
HF: Whitnall 25,190,99 Morrell 25,191,91 Lappin 29,181,76
HB: Bowden 26,188,90 Schulz 19,193,92 Johnson 26,186,86
                 
F: De Luca 21,202,95 Fevola 24,188,97 Houlihan 23,185,82
B: Hall 24,196,97 Gaspar 28,193,90 Newman 22,183,84
                     
R: French 29,200,103 Scotland 24,181,81 Camporeale 29,180,79
R: Knobel 24,202,102 Hyde 22,184,81 Hartigan 19,180,74
       
Int: Johnson 23,178,83 Bentick 19,184,80 Davies 21,184,79 Clarke 24,183,83
Int: Tivendale 25,186,86 Chaffey 27,180,82 Moore 21,190,86 Graham 32,190,90

My conclusion:
Both sides can gain an advantage over each other in various parts of the field.
But my concerns are:
1) Have we got the midfield strength to cover all of Carlton's midfield options?
2) Is our defence strong and stable enough to cover all of the Carlton forward half?
3) Koutoufides still remains a worry. Although inexperienced, I'd like to give Jackson a crack at him.
4) Conservatism did come in, I found it hard to find another option outside Gaspar against Fevola. There may be another one but, outside of playing a completely inexperienced player, I couldn't see it.
Inevitably I have probably missed something. I invite you all to tell me what you see I've missed.

 

[the claw]

phanto seeing as we are in a rebuilding phase as many kids as possible should get a run. if they are physically up to it.
a poosible team would be.

backs newman gaspar graham

hb deledio moore bowden

c johnson coughlan tambling

hf brown pattison schulz

f hartigan richo campbell

r simmonds jackson rodan

int stafford roach mcguane hyde

thats 4 new kids with 6 more who have been around for a yr or two. would like to play meyer but he looks way to skinny at this stage.
its a backline that has both height and more importantly speed and run. its only weakness is it lacks a tall big body to take on the gorillas.this is where simmonds will have to drop back to help out.
centre line has strength speed and someone who can dish the ball out and i think players who can find the footy for themselves.
the forward line is a worry it needs schulz to step up and pattison in his 1st yr to give a contest. if pattison isnt ready simmonds will have to play chf and knobel will come into the ruck.
onballers simmonds in ruck will hold his own jackson will give us that hard edge at stoppages rodan well i just dont know needs to step up. looking at the list i dont think we have a genuine rover on it mybe polo definately not krakouer. possibly tambling and play raines on the wing.
interchange bench contains a tagger in hyde a rest for simmo in stafford a tall option in mcguane and some pace in roach.
i would hope this is our team for the 1st game if not for the wizz fizz cup with some more kids getteing a run.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

id have Raines in ahead of Roach.
And of coarse id find a spot for krak ;D

 

[the claw]

id have Raines in ahead of Roach.
And of coarse id find a spot for krak ;D

yes you are right about raines but wrong about krakouer. if he has another bad yr this yr will you jump of him.