A Preseason Preview - Part 6 of 16 - Carlton

[pahoffm]

The Blues – Are their assistant coaches an omen for the future?

Carlton enters 2005 with much hope of improving upon its gains made in 2004. The Blues continue under the football tutelage of Dennis Pagan, whose record both at junior and senior level is proven.
His assistants have at least one thing in common. They are Tony Liberatore, given a 2 year contract after starting as Box Hill coach in 2003; Barry Mitchell, who has been an assistant at Carlton, since 1997; also Tony Elshaugh, who has been an assistant to Dennis Pagan since his days at North. What they have in common is that they are all rovers, and beware the Blues when they are dominant in the roving department.

The Carlton list is as follows:

De Luca 202 95 21
Batson 201 93 18 Rookie
French 200 103 29
Bryan 198 91 22 New
O'hAilpin A 198 86 19 Rookie
O'hAilpin S 196 89 22 Rookie
Hartlett 195 88 18 New
Prendergast 192 96 24
Morrell 191 91 25
Waite 191 94 22
Fisher 191 82 20
Pleming 191 90 19 Rookie
Koutoufides 190 100 32
Whitnall 190 99 25
Bannister 190 90 22
Livingston 190 94 22
Norman 190 91 21
Raso 190 77 17 New
Thornton 189 93 21
Walker 189 83 18
Fevola 188 97 24
Sporn 188 86 22
Russell 188 78 18 New
Teague 186 86 23
Wiggins 186 86 22
Becker 186 78 19 Rookie
Longmuir 185 81 25 New
Houlihan 185 82 23
Chambers 184 77 25
Davies 184 79 21
Bentick 184 80 19
Clarke 183 83 24
Smith 183 82 19 Rookie
Carrazzo 182 86 21
Lappin 181 76 29
McGrath 181 84 26
Bowyer 181 82 25
Scotland 181 81 24
Simpson 181 75 20
Camporeale 180 79 29
Stevens 180 86 25
Johnson 178 83 23
Blackwell 177 70 18 New
Betts 173 75 18 New
The blues have 7 new players and 6 rookies. Obviously the Carlton bank balance is doing better now than it was a couple of years ago. The emphasis of their recruiting has been on talls, which was to be expected, a couple of junior rovers, and an even spread of juniors in between. They have 5 new players greater than or equal to 195cms.

The spread of the list is as follows:

Twilight = 28+yo
Prime = 25-27yo
Development = 22-24yo
Junior = 18-21yo

Blues
<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Johnson 23
Junior: Blackwell 18, Betts 18

Tigers
<180 Small Runners
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Krakouer 22,
Junior: Rodan 21, Foley 20,

Blues
180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Lappin 29, Camporeale 29
Prime: McGrath 26, Bowyer 25, Chambers 25, Stevens 25
Development: Clarke 24, Scotland 24
Junior: Davies 21, Carrazzo 21, Simpson 20, Bentick 19, Smith 19

Tigers
180-184 Smaller Mediums
Twilight: Chaffey 28
Prime: Brown 27,
Development: Pettifer 23, Newman 23, Hyde 22,
Junior: Hartigan 20, Gilmour 19, Roach 19, Meyer 18, Raines 18, Tambling 18,

Blues
185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: 0
Prime: Longmuir 25
Development: Fevola 24, Teague 23, Houlihan 23, Sporn 22, Wiggins 22
Junior: Thornton 21, Becker 19, Russell 18, Walker 18

Tigers
185-189 Taller Mediums
Twilight: Campbell 32
Prime: Bowden 27, Johnson 27, Hilton 26, Tivendale 26,
Development: Tuck 23, Coughlan 23,
Junior: Jackson 19, Deledio 18, Polo 18,

Blues 
190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Koutoufides 32
Prime: Morrell 25, Whitnall 25
Development: Prendergast 24, Waite 22, Bannister 22, Livingstone 22
Junior: Norman 21, Fisher 20, Pleming 19, Raso 17

Tigers
190-194 Mobile Key Position
Twilight: Graham 32, Gaspar 29, Kellaway 29
Prime: 0
Development: Morrison 24,
Junior: Moore 21, Schulz 20, Archibald 19, Thursfield 19, McGuane 18, Limbach 17

Blues
195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: 0
Prime: 0
Development: Bryan 22, SO’hAilpin 22
Junior: AO’hAilpin 19, Hartlett 18

Tigers
195-199 Key Position/ Ruck
Twilight: Richardson 30
Prime: Simmonds 27,
Development: Hall 24,
Junior: Pattison 19

Blues
200+ Ruck
Twilight: French 29
Prime: 0
Development: 0
Junior: De Luca 21, Batson 18

Tigers
200+ Ruck
Twilight: Stafford 30
Prime: Knobel 25,
Development: 0
Junior: 0

Carlton look very solid in their spread except for one area. They have a good mix of running players, though a little short on genuine rovers. They have depth in their mediums and mobile key position players. They just seem a bit short on mature talls. I wonder if they are not thinking in retrospect how if they’d managed to win Simmonds as a recruit over us how they really could have been a real finals chance this year. We got Simmonds instead of them, our win, their loss.

The depth of the Carlton team in fielding their key positions is as follows:

B: Teague 23 Livingstone 22 Bannister 22
  McGrath 26 Norman 21 Thornton 21
  Simpson 21

HB: Longmuir 25 Prendergast 24 Waite 22
   Wiggins 22 Pleming 19 Russell 18

C: Bowyer 25 Stevens 25 Koutoufides 32
      Sporn 22 Scotland 24 Chambers 25
    Walker 18             Becker 19

HF: Houlihan 23 Morrell 25 Lappin 29
    Bentick 19 Whitnall 25 Davies 21
                  Fisher 20
                    Raso 17

F: O'hAilpin S 22 Fevola 24 Betts 18
  O'hAilpin A 19 Hartlett 18

R: French 29 Clarke 24 Camporeale 29
      Bryan 22 Carrazzo 21 Johnson 23
   De Luca 21 Smith 19 Blackwell 18
    Batson 18


You can see from this that Carlton do have depth to fill all positions. But what also stands out is the lack of mature quality at CHF.

Conclusion:
If this side had a quality CHF in 2005, I would back them for a surprise top 4 finish. They haven’t an already established one. They must still be ruing the fact that we got Simmonds instead of them. May be a junior will suddenly pop up this year. On the other hand, Maclure was less than a star at CHF in 3 Carlton premierships from 1979-82, so they may get along fine without one. Carlton will continue to improve this year. If 2005 is not their entrance to the finals, 2006 will certainly be.

 

[Bentleigh]

Conclusion:
If this side had a quality CHF in 2005, I would back them for a surprise top 4 finish.

Oh my God man. Pagan got abosutly everything out of them in '04 with 10 wins.

I wouldnt be surpised if they came bottem 4 next season.

 

[pahoffm]

Conclusion:
If this side had a quality CHF in 2005, I would back them for a surprise top 4 finish.

Oh my God man. Pagan got abosutly everything out of them in '04 with 10 wins.

I wouldnt be surpised if they came bottem 4 next season.

Credit to Pagan that he got absolutely everything, that they had to give him, out of them in '04 with 10 wins. Unlike our team who gave their coach very little in 2004 for whatever reasons.

In 2005 they will have more to give him yet. If they keep on giving him everything, they will get their rewards.

PS: Don't take that bombastic tone with me, sonny jim.

 

[jb03]

IMO, the blues are hardest team to rate. Did Pagan overachieve with a bunch of recylcled hacks or are they are on a steady climb/improvement up the ladder?

I offer no conclusion but won't be parting with any hard earned on them this year.

100 point beltings one week, surprise winners the next. Too hard to call.

 

[mb64]

Many think Carlton will drop back this year.I believe they could surprise & even possibly make the 8.Prediction 10-14 wins.

 

[pahoffm]

As an aside, while I was going through the Carlton list the name Lappin suddenly reminded me of a couple of years ago, when Johnson was being recruited, that Greg was chasing him also.
I look now to see that Lappin will be 29yo in 2005. How much better would we have been over the last couple of years with him. How much extra would a Lappin contract have cost us.
Frankly I'm damned well glad he decided to stay at Carlton. If Johnston couldn't save us from being woodenspooners, Lappin's influence would have been negligable. And it would have cost us a fortune for the pleasure.

 

[FightingFury]

A credit to a fine if not the finest coach in the business.
Im surprised Fevola is 'only' 188cm.
I reckon they lack the star quality in the midfeild and KPPs to make the 8.
They have rediscovered their pride however,and thats all Im asking of Richmond in 2005.
10-14th for the side I despise more than any other.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Blues baggers, like me, think Carlton have a KPP crisis, Phanto.

Fevola- OK still developing but noone would be surprised if he imploded. That said, he's their only AFL class KPP ATM and a good type at his best. Potential AA (pun intended).
Whitnall- A real problem. He will not stand in front of the pack and take the mark. OK, he's short and he can't jump but he's been shirking for his entire career under Pagan. I believe they were serious about off-loading him. Still he could return to form.
Prendergast- Would not be on the wooden spooner's list. Honest. Not young.
Livingston- I'm not sure whether this guy will make it. He's obviously no star. Problems may stem from a lack of size. He's not very big for one so immobile.
S.Thornton is smaller than LL but plays bigger. Younger and smarter, he looks way too small to hold down full back but he's got something. Maybe it's ability.

Norman- He's the one I'd pencil in for a senior berth this year. He could be an AFL class KPP.
S.O'hAilpin- Yeah maybe him too.
I've seen DeIuca look good up forward. Maybe.


Any of the junior talls could emerge this year but they'd have to be exceptional. Pleming? No evidence to date.

All the first choice KPP's are undersized.  Way too short and usually too light. All of them. That can't be an accident. It worries me. I'd like a first choice player at each end over 194 (one near 200cm) and near 100kg. The next tallest should be 192 minimum.

I think you're right about the depth, Phantom. It's the quality that worries me. It's a classic question. Would you rather have three All-Australian KPP's and no back-up or eigth mediocres? Carlton is a perfect example of the latter.

 

[jb03]

Fair analysis jd.


French also could be a kpp but further highlighting their shortage he plays mainly in the ruck. In answer to your question, clearly the 3 AA kpp's is better as this at least may make it possible to win a flag. With 8 mediocre, you can't.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

Pagan certainly got the best out of his troops last year.No Pagan and imo carl would have won the spoon last year. i rate their list only above Hawthorn and 2005 will confirm this.
there is only so much a coach can do.

 

[pahoffm]

Carlton's pre-Kernahan history has taught me that Carlton don't always need classy forwards to succeed. They won the '79 premiership with Peter Brown, Swan McKay and Mary Maclure. Fitzpatrick had to move to CHF in both the '79 & '82 GFs to get the Carlton forward half going. They've always relied on their mosquito fleets of runners to create enough opportunities, whether it was the 60s, 70s or 80s.

But they always have had, until now, excellent key defenders and defensive flankers. Southby, Doull, McKay, Perovic, Silvagni, Hall, Hunter, Harmes, McKay the latter, just to name a few. I believe this is where Carlton will rise or fall.

In 2003 Carlton had points for of 1784 and points against of 2674.
In 2004 they only improved their points for by 41 points total to 1825. Not a big difference.
In 2004 they cut their points against by 439 points to 2235.

It was their defence, of course ably supported by their improved midfield, that made the difference for them in 2004. Their defence will be a year closer towards maturity in 2005. It will get even better still.

This is where Carlton's improvement will come from.

 

[cmarkidis]

Conclusion:
If this side had a quality CHF in 2005, I would back them for a surprise top 4 finish. They haven’t an already established one. They must still be ruing the fact that we got Simmonds instead of them. May be a junior will suddenly pop up this year. On the other hand, Maclure was less than a star at CHF in 3 Carlton premierships from 1979-82, so they may get along fine without one. Carlton will continue to improve this year. If 2005 is not their entrance to the finals, 2006 will certainly be.

Phantom, you're on drugs!!

Pagan squeezed every drop out of a line up deviod of talent, apart from less than a handful of reasonable players. The absolute best Carlton can hope for would be a repeat of 2004. I cannot see where any of their improvement will come from.

What Pagan did with that rabble is testament to the ever increasing value of a coach. Matthews inherited Brisbane as wooden spooners, took them to 3 flags & a runners-up. Malthouse inherited Collingwood as wooden spooners, took them to 2 grand finals. Both Collingwood & Carlton would have increased their tally of spoons had they not changed coaches. In there is a message for us tigers.

Phantom, name your price Carlton the top 4, double it, and you can get set with me - no problems!!

 

[CHF]

I, like others, think you may have over rated the list at Carlton. Pagan instilled a bit of discipline and had them playing to a rigid gameplan for most of last season and I think he will do a similar thing this year.

The players will have an extra season of experience to call on but at the other end of the list, the older players like Kouta, French, Lappin and Camporeale will be carrying an extra year on their legs.

They will improve this year I am certain of that, but will that improvement be enough relative to other teams to push them up the ladder?

I don't think so.

Another year for them just outside the 8 for mine.

 

[pahoffm]

I said that if Carlton had a star CHF they could be a surprise top 4 finish. I then said that they don't have one.

They will continue to improve in both their defence and midfield in 2005. And Hartlett, judging by his 2004 junior finals performance may well be their new Steven Kernahan. You remember Hartlett, I devoted a thread on this site begging someone from Tigerland to watch him play. His finals performances were:
SemiF 5 goals
PrelimF 8 goals
GrandF 3 goals

Well, at least my old friend Shane O'Sullivan was listening to me. (Our boys used to play cricket together. His son is a very talented batsman. Great footwork. My son is a very good allrounder, but everyone knows his footwork when batting could improve.)

Getting back to the point it is part of the Tiger culture to underestimate Carlton. We did it in '72. We did it in '82. We may be doing it now. They improved with a fairly young list in 2004. We didn't for whatever reason. Their list is improving each year. So is ours, but they had a 2 year head start.

If 2005 is not their entrance to the finals, then 2006 will certainly be.

 

[johnson2richo2003]

Getting back to the point it is part of the Tiger culture to underestimate Carlton. We did it in '72. We did it in '82. We may be doing it now. They improved with a fairly young list in 2004. We didn't for whatever reason. Their list is improving each year. So is ours, but they had a 2 year head start.

If 2005 is not their entrance to the finals, then 2006 will certainly be.

i think your barking up the wrong tree there Phanto.it didnt take much to improve there young list in last years draft considering that the only youngster who has a fair bit of quality about him in young Walker.Cant see how they are 2yrs ahead of us.

 

[pahoffm]

Yeh,
I've put my position, made my point.
Look time will tell if I'm right or not.

Camporeale & Lappin did figure in their stats, but so also did Stevens, Scotland, Houlihan, Morrell, Thornton, Fevola, Johnson & Teague.

Again, time will tell.

 

[Archibald]

These boys are in trouble.

Their spine isn't big enough or good enough.

10th to 14th

 

[pahoffm]

Phantom, you're on drugs!!

Well I am actually.
On Saturday afternoon we were playing Kingston-Heath away. I was fielding at extra cover when the batsman skied a masterful hit straight up in the air. Sensing that it was going to land around the beginning of our bowler's run up, I ran full pelt, had to dive, and took a one hander in mid air.
Sensational!
Except I landed on my hip and did my back in.
Spent the rest of the afternoon in 1st slip, dropped a catch off my son's bowling, he took 2-7 off 4 overs.
It was a pleasing day's cricket.

But yes I am on drugs to kill my back pain at home & at work. And I'm putting ice packs on my back every two hours at home.

So it's my spine that's not good enough, not Carlton's.

That's why I was doing a preview on Carlton at near 2am instead of sleeping like a normal person.

 

[AEK Yellow n Black]

Excellent assessment !!!

Great research, great arguments but i hope you are wrong. Boy do i hope you are wrong!!

Anyway keep them coming and don't worry about what we all think. To me its reads like the work of an individual who knows what he's on about !!

Good Stuff.... The truth does hurt at times but we need it ...

 

[cooltiger]

Phantom keep up the great work ..this is helping me understand the other clubs at a different level..
This is a great assesment agree with yellblack I hope you are wrong ..however Pagan is a great coach and will get the most out if he's players ..