Why the bottom-out strategy is a bust... and not the good kind of bust | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Why the bottom-out strategy is a bust... and not the good kind of bust

AngryAnt

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Nov 25, 2004
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Some discussion from our learned friends on this board a few weeks back about how crap we are and how we need to bottom out, the Hopp/Taz gamble had failed, and so on and so forth. Sure, we were playing crap, crippled by injuries, Cotchin a shadow of himself, Dusty missing gimmies, Lynch gone for months, Nank out, Dimma looking perplexed, whatever. I wouldn't even mention the absurdity of calling for a tank in the year we have no first round draft picks, but I just did.

Making finals this year will be tough, and top four is out, but things are never as bad (or as good usually) as they seem - and here's why.

The backs - never as bad as the game day threads would have it, we still have a serviceable Grimes, a Vlastuin who is getting back to his best, Balta doing the job and running off Porkins and the like, nothing more needs to be said about Bakes, shorty or The Prince. Points conceded showed the backline was doing its job. And here's the good news - we have Tylar Young and Gibcus waiting in the wings with Miller showing he can do a job down back. We still have a few years of Vlas, heaps for Bakes/Rioli, Balta has resigned - really Grimes is the only one of the set on his sunset. We have a quality backine for the next five years.

Mids/on ballers - Hopper and Taranto A - A minus mids good for the next few years. Graham is crucial as the number 3 steady defensive hard runner/link man. Shai - killing it and if he spends more time in the middle he's the new Dusty star factor, if he's not already. Cotch will be gone but still has shown some great cameos so far, still has something to give. Dusty - new lease on life. Good for two more years at high quality, and still kicking goals as a forward. Next gen is where the questions still remain - Sonz, talented but flaky, Ross a good ordinary type, Dow not much yet. Short as a mid yes maybe, but not as a permanent.

Rucks - Ryan, Nank. Soldo is back-up only - love the big guy but you can see NankSon have much more hurt factor than Soldo now.

Wings - Kmac does the fat side running he always does - he's coming back into form. Pickett we really miss on the other side but I get the need. No obvious standouts - Ross/Sonz are not wingers.

Forwards - looking bad at the start of the year, but we've got something to work with. Lynch still has three years in him. Jack will go, ok. But we have Ryan now - as well as being a high-end future ruck prospect he can kick goals, he's accurate, he'll take more marks, he's mobile, he's skillful. Gotta say I thought this kid was no good up to this year, he's proved me wrong big time. I’m on the Samson bus.

The forwards are still the weakest link this year - particularly the smalls. I hated the Pickett move forward but I get it now. He's just about ready to take mark of the year next week and is putting the fear of god into your intercept markers and groundball types. Mansell could be the grunt defensive one, Cumbers could be the mercurial goal kicking one - jury still out on both of course. MJ will add that manic defensive pressure once he's back. Forward line still has massive upside even this year, if/when it clicks.

Coaching I leave to another thread, but to sum up - we are a couple of forwards and some second rotation mids away from being a tough side to beat. Backs good. Midfield set. Forwards - we just need Lynch and Nank back to cover Ryan, and we are a gun side once again.

We'll make finals if Lynch can get back by mid-season and stays fit.
 
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Don't disagree broadly, couple of comments. People have a bit of a hair trigger writing off Soldo IMO, but he tends to get back into form and contribute in big games. I hope I'm wrong but my hunch is Young will be a serviceable 2nd or 3rd string key defender. An upgrade on Garthwaite. Not necessarily a bad thing, everyone needs one, but hope for another DTLD is a faint one.

Things could play out in a lot of ways, any forward line that has Lynch and Shai/ Dusty as anchors is not bereft. Remember, Melbourne won a flag with Ben Brown, Kosi Pickett and Beavis and Butthead, and a midfield goal blitzkreig.

But yeah, we need a few more good players across the board.
 
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Bottoming out is a failed strategy. The only time you'd consider putting the cue in the rack is with 5 games to go and you're bottom 4. The amount of damage Melbourne and Carlton did to their team's fabric by playing to lose is there for all to see.

You want a team that easily accepts losing, then keep playing them to lose and that's what they will be.
 
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Don't disagree broadly, couple of comments. People have a bit of a hair trigger writing off Soldo IMO, but he tends to get back into form and contribute in big games. I hope I'm wrong but my hunch is Young will be a serviceable 2nd or 3rd string key defender. An upgrade on Garthwaite. Not necessarily a bad thing, everyone needs one, but hope for another DTLD is a faint one.

Things could play out in a lot of ways, any forward line that has Lynch and Shai/ Dusty as anchors is not bereft. Remember, Melbourne won a flag with Ben Brown, Kosi Pickett and Beavis and Butthead, and a midfield goal blitzkreig.

But yeah, we need a few more good players across the board.

yeah fair and Soldo will be a solid contributor if Nank doesn't get back for whatever reason. I see Ryan as a ten year ruck/forward now which is pretty amazing from the six games I've seen from him this year.

Maybe I'm overrating Young but I'm tempted to play Gibcus as a forward now given his development. Also Biggie may yet make it as a key back.
 
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Screenshot_20230515_175639_AFL.jpg

I wouldn't say top 4 is out of the question. I have us in there by round 18.


Of course that's assuming we don't do the nuanced thing and tank to try and get GWS a top 5 draft pick.
 
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Hoping we pick up a forward and a fast midfielder in the mid season draft ( if we have 2 pics ). Might make a difference .
 
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The backs - never as bad as the game day threads would have it, we still have a serviceable Grimes, a Vlastuin who is getting back to his best, Balta doing the job and running off Porkins and the like, nothing more needs to be said about Bakes, shorty or The Prince. Points conceded showed the backline was doing its job. And here's the good news - we have Tylar Young and Gibcus waiting in the wings with Miller showing he can do a job down back. We still have a few years of Vlas, heaps for Bakes/Rioli, Balta has resigned - really Grimes is the only one of the set on his sunset. We have a quality backine for the next five years.
All of that, and no mention of Broady.
 
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There's a difference being organically crap and deliberately crap. The former happens to all sides at some point. The latter is a conscious decision and has more often than not shown to cripple clubs from top to bottom for a decade. We should expect the former, but rail against the latter.
 
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There's a difference being organically crap and deliberately crap. The former happens to all sides at some point. The latter is a conscious decision and has more often than not shown to cripple clubs from top to bottom for a decade. We should expect the former, but rail against the latter.

do you see us being organically crap this year and next Wispy?
 
yeah fair and Soldo will be a solid contributor if Nank doesn't get back for whatever reason. I see Ryan as a ten year ruck/forward now which is pretty amazing from the six games I've seen from him this year.

Maybe I'm overrating Young but I'm tempted to play Gibcus as a forward now given his development. Also Biggie may yet make it as a key back.
If nank and samo are the choice rucks which you’d expect then I can see soldo attracting strong interest at trade table
 
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If nank and samo are the choice rucks which you’d expect then I can see soldo attracting strong interest at trade table

If Biggie comes on a bit in the ruck in the 2's too, it could certainly create an opportunity if someone wanted to come in for him. Maybe the Swans or the Blues might be interested. Not sure how many would, but it creates an opportunity if our first choice rucks are Nank and Samson, with Biggie and Miller as backups.
 
Yeah, we're pretty good, beating Geelong shows the potential. Don't think we can contend for the flag this year, but we have some youth who could be good.

The biggest issue I see is staying competitive but not really good enough to win the flag. Yes, it is nice making finals, but you want to be contending. I reckon we can get back to being in the mix within a couple of years.

Just an aside, it is something many on this site seem to have trouble with - when you say Balta has resigned, that means he has left his job, what I reckon you are saying is that Balta re-signed. Sorry, former teacher in me.

DS
 
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If Biggie comes on a bit in the ruck in the 2's too, it could certainly create an opportunity if someone wanted to come in for him. Maybe the Swans or the Blues might be interested. Not sure how many would, but it creates an opportunity if our first choice rucks are Nank and Samson, with Biggie and Miller as backups.
I’d like to see biggy tried as a forward before he split , reckon he’s a talent , we’d get nothing for him
 
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