Where are we on the premiership clock?

[Carter]

The Hawthorn game got me thinking. The Hawks are clearly well coached and drilled. They dissected us for most of the game with a significantly younger list.

Where do ya reckon we are on the premiership clock?

FWIW, after pondering for a bit, I think

1) our lack of effective forwards of any kind

2) our lack of out-and-out silk in regards to young midfielders

3) our top heavy age profile

realistically puts us between 12 and 1 am.

Sure, shoot the lights out of free agency and we could challenge the top eight in 2024, thereby accelerating our clock, but that seems a long shot at this point.

What does PRE think?

It’s important to note that a team can be competitive in most games and hang out in the middle bracket of teams without being close to a flag. I hope that ain’t us.

 

[btoz_01]

1 is our lack of TALL marking forwards, natural crumbers and players that are able to kick multiple goals.
Defenders are able to easily take intercept marks rebound and score
We just cant hold the ball in our forward line

 

[graystar1]

Agree with everything posted to date.
The Melbourne game this week is the critical one.
Win this and we are still in the hunt.
Will find it very difficult to beat the Doggies and Port, which is over on their dung heap.
Therefore, my assessment is this.
Lose to Melbourne and season over, given possible losses to Bullies and Port.
We were very lucky to get home against the lowly Hawks, and our percentage is horrible.

 

[Platinum member]

Agree with everything posted to date.
The Melbourne game this week is the critical one.
Win this and we are still in the hunt.
Will find it very difficult to beat the Doggies and Port, which is over on their dung heap.
Therefore, my assessment is this.
Lose to Melbourne and season over, given possible losses to Bullies and Port.
We were very lucky to get home against the lowly Hawks, and our percentage is horrible.

Dogs are absolutely beatable

 

[graystar1]

Dogs are absolutely beatable

Love your optimism PM.
From memory I think this game is at Marvel Stadium, where we are usually cactus.
Then of course we have the Sainters also at Marvel.
Should win this one regardless of the venue.

 

[Tigers2011]

If address forward issues in off season and Lynch stays fit and playing to his level, we have a 2-year immediate window before Martin, Grimes, Broad, Prestia, Lynch, Vlastuin etc all go.

Coaching appointment is naturally vital & trust the club gets this right (which I’m sure they will). Plus we also have to address strength & conditioning - too many soft tissue injuries this year, especially Gibcus protracted injury recovery.

 

[bairdy380]

Depends on forward line…. As it is… 1:00… if we can sort it, perhaps bumps us to 4 or 5

 

[RoarEmotion]

Any team without a marking full forward is in limbo 'o' clock unless mids and backs elite.

Loss of Lynch killer for us. Loss of King kills St Kilda. Take out Curnow or Cameron or Naughton or Green or Marshall out of any of the top eight teams and they will be in the same position as us. You just can't replace these blokes if they are injured.

I guess Mihocek doing enough for Collingwood and everything else being great, Melbourne similar (and without Fritsch they won't get it done IMO - their leading goal kickers - Fritsch then Pickett then Petracca)

We could be at 11pm, with a fit Lynch, Gibcus and confident Cumberland and a small forward hitting their straps and someone from free agency. Also going to need a young 'un to be at least at Cotchin's current waning level.

Or at 1am with something above not working and Riewoldt and Cotchin gone.

Lynch will change things quite a lot. We are 100% percentage without thumping WCE (twice) and not having arguably the best full forward in our side and embedding some new midfielders. I think we were on top of the ladder a few weeks ago when you did it at 3 quarter time.

Still think we are in the go for it mode for at least another year but the probabilities are diminishing.

 

[TigerForce]

The Hawthorn game got me thinking. The Hawks are clearly well coached and drilled. They dissected us for most of the game with a significantly younger list.

Where do ya reckon we are on the premiership clock?

FWIW, after pondering for a bit, I think

1) our lack of effective forwards of any kind

2) our lack of out-and-out silk in regards to young midfielders

3) our top heavy age profile

realistically puts us between 12 and 1 am.

Sure, shoot the lights out of free agency and we could challenge the top eight in 2024, thereby accelerating our clock, but that seems a long shot at this point.

What does PRE think?

It’s important to note that a team can be competitive in most games and hang out in the middle bracket of teams without being close to a flag. I hope that ain’t us.

9:00pm

 

[Dustintime]

I dont think we can win it with our current list and I think we are going to have to take our medicine and do what Hawthorn are now at some point to get going in the right direction again

 

[RoarEmotion]

I dont think we can win it with our current list and I think we are going to have to take our medicine and do what Hawthorn are now at some point to get going in the right direction again

What are the big gaps that make it a bust (with a fully fit list) and could FA solve it for another crack?

For me it's the forward line (jack replacement - hopefully cumberland/bauer/bradtke) and a replacement for cotch (hopefully ross/sonsie) and a small forward (Coulthard/MRJ)

It's not as good a team as what we had previously (3 flags in 4 years) and a super-gun mid probably missing although Tarranto doing pretty well. With that said it would still have a chance for me.

 

[Tigers of Old]

it's a great question. I honestly have no idea where we are on the clock.

 

[123cups]

I think Terry Wallace’s premiership clock analogy from 2004 no longer captures the patterns of list management associated with winning flags

The underlying principle is basically to lump your talent into the same age bracket - you save yesterday’s funds for today, and bring tomorrow’s funds into today, then you have maximum funds to spend today.

But clubs aim for more stable list profiles these days. One reason for this is because a club’s off-field strength has become a larger factor in determining success.

For the sake of the question, I’d limit TN e analogy to a core group of 4-5 stars at the same age - e.g. in 2013 we had Reiwoldt, Rance, Dusty, Cotch under 25

Now we have Balta, Bolton, Taranto in that general category (with some potentials to join them), then a more even spread of talent by age.

Our list is more evenly distributed by age and talent compared to 2013, so as long as we don’t develop major list holes in t e coming years, it gives us a steady base to work from - which is better and means we’re closer to success than clubs going through a full rebuild

 

[HKTigerB]

@123cups I think you're spot on.

I also think our drafting and trading has changed significantly. Given where are picks are/have been apart from 2022 we've looked a lot at the "alternate" pathways players rather than the traditional U 18's draftee route. Kaelan Bradtke, Tylar Young, Matt Coulthard, James Trezise and possibly even Steely Green spring to mind.

I'd love to know the IP they've built internally to analyse potential and what that means for who you draft.

 

[Carter]

I think Terry Wallace’s premiership clock analogy from 2004 no longer captures the patterns of list management associated with winning flags

The underlying principle is basically to lump your talent into the same age bracket - you save yesterday’s funds for today, and bring tomorrow’s funds into today, then you have maximum funds to spend today.

But clubs aim for more stable list profiles these days. One reason for this is because a club’s off-field strength has become a larger factor in determining success.

For the sake of the question, I’d limit TN e analogy to a core group of 4-5 stars at the same age - e.g. in 2013 we had Reiwoldt, Rance, Dusty, Cotch under 25

Now we have Balta, Bolton, Taranto in that general category (with some potentials to join them), then a more even spread of talent by age.

Our list is more evenly distributed by age and talent compared to 2013, so as long as we don’t develop major list holes in t e coming years, it gives us a steady base to work from - which is better and means we’re closer to success than clubs going through a full rebuild

Good post

No clock then, more like riding a wave of talent

This analogy works in that some clubs are able to climb on the next wave, year after year, whilst others wait for the next set

 

[tony_montana]

I honestly think we'll give it a serious crack next season. List is nowhere near as bad as some think. With Jack, Cotch and Taz leaving end of this season I think our list demographic is a lot better balanced and as someone mentioned above, we'll have a small window for the next few years - after that its too hard to say - how do you predict 2 years beyond without those drafts, trade and free agency periods. Lots of water to go under the bridge

 

[Dustintime]

What are the big gaps that make it a bust (with a fully fit list) and could FA solve it for another crack?

For me it's the forward line (jack replacement - hopefully cumberland/bauer/bradtke) and a replacement for cotch (hopefully ross/sonsie) and a small forward (Coulthard/MRJ)

It's not as good a team as what we had previously (3 flags in 4 years) and a super-gun mid probably missing although Tarranto doing pretty well. With that said it would still have a chance for me.

The way I see it to be a premiership threat you need a midfield that is as good as any in the comp and at least one gun forward and 2 gun backs minimum.

At the moment our midfield consistently gets smacked by lots and we only have Balta who is going towards prime as opposed to going the other way.

I cant see free agency fixing those holes we traded like a team in contention so now we have a lot of work to do to rebuild the next wave of the list

 

[Scoop]

Two times, with Tom Lynch playing 15+ games in 2024 we are at 11pm. A chance. Close to tipping over.

Without Tom Lynch playing 15+ games in 2024, we are at 5 pm.

 

[Dustintime]

Two times, with Tom Lynch playing 15+ games in 2024 we are at 11pm. A chance. Close to tipping over.

Without Tom Lynch playing 15+ games in 2024, we are at 5 pm.

Lynch turns 32 next year and just missed basically a whole season will be a bit part player at most IMO

 

[Disco Soars]

Yet again last weekend we were reminded how much we miss Lynch. He makes us a, what, six goal better outfit? If you base this on the ones he kicks, the ones he creates for others by bringing the ball to ground/creating space for the other forwards, and generally for offering the outlet mark, it really does change the picture remarkably - the ball rebounds less, and thus the back six are put under less pressure.

If you take the weekend's game as an example, yes, Sicily was amazing, but if Lynch was there it's a different proposition. Although have others have pointed out, we're banking on him returning fit (and remaining healthy) in 2024 and beyond.

Still, we're not doing quite as badly as it seems at times. Where are we in regards to contention? I'm not too sure, but I think @123cups post is a great summary.