Sound the alarm series - Grand Final Coaches Box footage

[larabee]

No, of course not, I'm certainly not suggesting it is as random as that.

But every club has the same information, the same talent identification tools, the same vision and stats, the same testing results, the same access to interview and by and large the top 50 draft picks each year are predictable and agreed on by all clubs, with only subtle variations. And yet the results vary wildly with no logical reason as to why. For every success or failure you can find reasons that are directly opposed by other successes and failures. Chance is the only explainable factor.

The thing is though you never really know if the draftee will actually turn into a player, let alone a good or great player and even if they do turn into a good or great player will it be enough to make you a successful team?

There's plenty of kids who were highly rated in the draft like Buckley, Riewoldt, Dangerfield for example who became great players but for whatever reason were unable to be part of a premiership side. No-one could possibly have predicted that when they drafted them.

I look at two kids I had something to do before they were drafted in Dustin and Josh Schache. They were both good players, but Josh was far ahead in other factors. If they had been in the same draft and you'd been asked to predict which of these guys will win his team three premierships and be considered one of the best players of all time then you'd have chosen Josh every single time.

yeah, there's always going to be outliers, but I don't think the results (in the table I posted) vary widely at all. The higher the draft pick, the longer the career. It's clear.

100% of pick 1s get to 100 games, average career games of pick 1 and 2 is over 200, 50% of pick 1 and 2 end up All Australian, there are no zero gamers in the top 5 picks.

To me (without any inside knowledge whatsoever!), I believe player development can play a big part in whether a player 'makes it' or not.

 

[Tenacious]

The only thing I’ll commend Salt for is his going into the Richmond box and congratulating Dimma and the boys. Other than that he can get stuffed!

Nuh no way
I've said it before and I'll say it again ......

Mate - you’re being too kind to the sneering snarling shytehead
All he wanted to do was get the agony over and done with as quick as possible - for his own benefit not for Dimma or RFC
He‘s always been an angry ungracious prick and that’s how he’ll remain

 

[AngryAnt]

You don’t have to say “hey I believe myself to be right” it’s all your other words and diluting other opinions that pretty much say you believe that anyway!

many of us are on the “inside” - we may simply not go on and on about it.

That is possibly true, but TBR is the only person I know on PRE that speaks actively about HOW things are done on the inside. I've never read him go on and on about it either, he offers his experience and responds if asked something.

If you are on the "inside", share similar insights - without putting commercial confidentiality or your own job at risk, of course.

 

[Bullarto Tiger]

Thanks General
That was really good viewing
And, yes, it was fist-pumping stuff.
GO TIGERS

 

[bob]

That is possibly true, but TBR is the only person I know on PRE that speaks actively about HOW things are done on the inside. I've never read him go on and on about it either, he offers his experience and responds if asked something.

If you are on the "inside", share similar insights - without putting commercial confidentiality or your own job at risk, of course.

Hi AA

Some of us are on the “Inside” without it having to be about a footy dept and we don’t go on about it.

Discussions around significant and important topics such as authentic Leadership, culture, development of people, recruitment strategies of people, training and development of people can be made by many of us who actually run businesses vs The frankly ridiculous notion posted by TBR about success being random and luck

There is no luck about it at all. The only time luck is involved is in one game or one period and injuries.

Sustained success in football clubs is no different than sustained success in business. It is about the above items. As it is For all businesses. Every CEO would say the same.

 

[Bullarto Tiger]

What I noticed was at the respective three-quarter time huddles that there was a profound difference in the energy levels.
Geelong players seemed almost to appear a littler non-plussed by what had transpired during the third quarter. It was as though they had given it their best shot and found themselves trailing on the biggest stage.
Scott's address also seemed to lack believability. It was as though he also was feeling blown away by the Tigers efforts. His address wasn't inspiring because it was as though he knew his team was done.
On the other hand, the energy and spirit that was emanating within the tight Richmond huddle at three-quarter time was generating its own inspiration.
Loved Dimma's concise and effective communication to the players as they gathered in close. His words were uplifting.
And the boys just did the rest.
GO TIGERS

 

[bob]

What I noticed was at the respective three-quarter time huddles that there was a profound difference in the energy levels.
Geelong players seemed almost to appear a littler non-plussed by what had transpired during the third quarter. It was as though they had given it their best shot and found themselves trailing on the biggest stage.
Scott's address also seemed to lack believability. It was as though he also was feeling blown away by the Tigers efforts. His address wasn't inspiring because it was as though he knew his team was done.
On the other hand, the energy and spirit that was emanating within the tight Richmond huddle at three-quarter time was generating its own inspiration.
Loved Dimma's concise and effective communication to the players as they gathered in close. His words were uplifting.
And the boys just did the rest.
GO TIGER

Agree. When you notice that Scott’s address lacked believeability, it’s a good observation. It wasn’t authentic. It was false confidence and bravado. That’s fine that’s his style. Comes across in almost every press conference he does. Its not the way Damien operates.

 

[snags]

I like Scott's "if we kick this we win", "contest vs chaos" and "they're shitting themselves around the stoppage and the contest situation" comments best.

 

[Carter]

lol, there is a clear difference in coaching styles evident in that footage.

chris scott - remote, calculated, intelligent but hard to embrace

damien hardwick - has a human element that is easy to relate to

it is not difficult to see why players respond to Dimma and the fun our boys have is real as opposed to the manufactured levity of playing groups coached by androids Buckley, Scott and co.

 

[Carter]

So Dusty succeeded despite you?

I never saw Schache play at junior level but I don't think I saw him play one game that suggested he was going to cut it at AFL level. And despite all the exposed form the bulldogs made a massive mistake drafting him. That was not luck. Same goes for us drafting Hampson. For the hawks drafting Vickery. For the Saints drafting Adam Pattinson. They all had exposed form and terminal flaws for AFL footballers. It isn't bad luck that they have not/did not succeed at their second clubs.

As for the draft, I agree with Ant that hard work/research etc provides a much better opportunity for success than throwing a dart at the board and letting fate decide.

For me luck makes up a small part when determining chances of success.

work / research is one thing, but to take it further, what we've done is identify Richmond traits (endurance, repeat sprints, contest to contest) and taken players that tick the boxes. the flip side of this (especially with lower draft picks and rookies) is to accept poor traits (castagna kicking, for example) as long as they tick the core boxes.

so yes, luck has absolutely nothing to do with it and is pretty much drivel to suggest otherwise.

 

[Harry]

What I noticed was at the respective three-quarter time huddles that there was a profound difference in the energy levels.
Geelong players seemed almost to appear a littler non-plussed by what had transpired during the third quarter. It was as though they had given it their best shot and found themselves trailing on the biggest stage.
Scott's address also seemed to lack believability. It was as though he also was feeling blown away by the Tigers efforts. His address wasn't inspiring because it was as though he knew his team was done.
On the other hand, the energy and spirit that was emanating within the tight Richmond huddle at three-quarter time was generating its own inspiration.
Loved Dimma's concise and effective communication to the players as they gathered in close. His words were uplifting.
And the boys just did the rest.
GO TIGERS

Good post. Dimma has a way with words and delivery. His performances in the media are very meh compared to scott and buckley but he blows them away when delivering a rev up to his players. Had never heard him until the amazon doco and now this and gotta say I'm impressed.

 

[eZyT]

I look at two kids I had something to do before they were drafted in Dustin and Josh Schache. They were both good players, but Josh was far ahead in other factors. If they had been in the same draft and you'd been asked to predict which of these guys will win his team three premierships and be considered one of the best players of all time then you'd have chosen Josh every single time.

as a recruiter, BR, you make a good physio

I think

1. we've prioritised different things than other clubs, to fit our system; speed, toughs, tank. we havnt put the emphasis on decision making and kicking other clubs would have I dont reckon

2. There is still room for opinion and feel amongst all the data. the ability to envisage the footballer the kid will become. I suspect we use the data to validate the observations; someone sees kids like baker and Mansell and they go 'these kids are only getting 15 disposals on a half back flank, but they are fast, tough and composed, richmond can make these kids into football men'. while some other clubs are smitten with the kid getting 30 disposals, who may or may not have hit their ceiling and whose composure will never develop.

 

[Baloo]

Or did Schache get drafted to a club that didn't have the support structure and development coaches in place to make him successful as could be in the AFL? I guess it was luck, bad luck, that he got drafted to a club that was performing badly, the coach was on the way out, and didn't have the support he needed to become the next Wayne Carey?

 

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

Exactly! Which reminds me, I received a hot tip, North to win the flag. Put your house on it.

Is the flag white?

 

[Tigers of Old]

The only thing I’ll commend Salt for is his going into the Richmond box and congratulating Dimma and the boys.

I'm pretty sure he asked Grigga if he should do that too.

 

[TigerFurious]

as a recruiter, BR, you make a good physio

I think

1. we've prioritised different things than other clubs, to fit our system; speed, toughs, tank. we havnt put the emphasis on decision making and kicking other clubs would have I dont reckon

2. There is still room for opinion and feel amongst all the data. the ability to envisage the footballer the kid will become. I suspect we use the data to validate the observations; someone sees kids like baker and Mansell and they go 'these kids are only getting 15 disposals on a half back flank, but they are fast, tough and composed, richmond can make these kids into football men'. while some other clubs are smitten with the kid getting 30 disposals, who may or may not have hit their ceiling and whose composure will never develop.

Nailed it. There was a very clear shift in our recruiting philosophy around 2015. The emphasis on running ability is evident in every single player we have recruited since then. The game plan was then altered to maximize these attributes and suddenly we find ourselves getting “luckier” with our recruits.

 

[snags]

I think this discussion is missing another dimension. Selecting a player is only one piece of the puzzle. Once he gets to the club I reckon the culture and development programs have a bigger say. Yes we have obvious attributes we look for but I reckon getting guys that are coachable and want to win plug into our system easily. We no longer need a Lids to come in the door to make a difference. We just need a Tambling to chase and play his role better than the last guy. While it may look like our recruiting has improved I reckon it is more we have well defined roles and expectations for recruits. The kicker is with an obvious "brand" the recruitment team can easily identify these players that will enhance our system. This is cyclic and we should only get stronger over time unless the AFL changes the rules on us.

 

[bob]

It's easy to say with hindsight but at the time he was drafted he looked like a lock as a decade long key forward. He had come off kicking the most goals ever in the championships and had incredible aerobic markers.

Everybody wanted him and everyone would have taken him given the chance. No matter what system you used for selecting players, what information you valued etc etc

That is where the luck comes into it. Because no-one ever drafts a dud. You draft them and you do the best you can with them and hope like hell they come through but there is no-one who ever knows for sure what the result will be until it happens.



I feel like I'm being misquoted a bit in this thread! TBR says luck plays a big part in AFL success has become TBR says you may as well draft by throwing darts at a dartboard.



Even with those picks though there's an element of danger. Off the top of my head Boyd, McCartin and Patton are recent busts and although he wasn't a technical number one pick Jesse Hogan isn't far ahead.

When those clubs drafted those guys they thought they were getting marquee forwards who you could build a side around for a decade.



They definitely all have their own systems and ways of rating players but they generally get the same results. After all there's only so many things you can value and most people like similar things in a footballer. An AFL club's phantom draft is usually very close to what actually happens, there's variations but they are subtle.

The thing with their tools and recruiting systems though is they are great until they are not. Our system was ok when it took Brandon Ellis at 15, probably not working so well when it took Todd Elton at 26.

You arent being misquoted, you keep changing your angle.

Here is a phrase of yours:

They definitely all have their own systems and ways of rating players but they generally get the same results. After all there's only so many things you can value and most people like similar things in a footballer. An AFL club's phantom draft is usually very close to what actually happens, there's variations but they are subtle.


How would you possibly know 'they generally get the same results'. Have you seen all 18 systems/spreadsheets and compared them.

'There's only so many things you can value'. There's literally dozens and hundreds of things that can be valued and ranked.

It's this kind of 'authoritarian' stuff being pushed out in this forum that is dribble.

 

[bob]

I think this discussion is missing another dimension. Selecting a player is only one piece of the puzzle. Once he gets to the club I reckon the culture and development programs have a bigger say. Yes we have obvious attributes we look for but I reckon getting guys that are coachable and want to win plug into our system easily. We no longer need a Lids to come in the door to make a difference. We just need a Tambling to chase and play his role better than the last guy. While it may look like our recruiting has improved I reckon it is more we have well defined roles and expectations for recruits. The kicker is with an obvious "brand" the recruitment team can easily identify these players that will enhance our system. This is cyclic and we should only get stronger over time unless the AFL changes the rules on us.

Exactly, thank you Sausage for your insightful post.
The discussion's dimension keeps changing because some keep changing their angles.

 

[Tiger Rob]

Leigh Matthews won four flags as coach. He says it’s the cattle, not the coaching.

So, Mark Neeld = Any all time great coach?