I see what you are saying and the answer to those questions is yes and no (although I'd prefer probably yes and probably no), but you are asking the wrong question.
We don't umpire intentions, we umpire outcomes. So you have to strip away everything apart from what actually happened. Both players kicked the ball and it went over the line. Only Selwood had a reasonable excuse in terms of a team mate there he could have been giving the ball to.
If the Brayshaw one isn't a free then we can say the next kick isn't a free either. He didn't mean to kick it out on the full, it just came off the side of his boot, so lets just throw it in to be fair. Or if a player grabs the ball in congestion and snaps a point then we need to give him a goal because he didn't mean to miss but the pressure forced him.
It really comes back to your yes/no matrix but with different questions.
Did the player cause the ball to go OOB? Both yes.
Did the player have a reasonable alternate option he was trying to execute? Selwood yes, Brayshaw no.