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Pick 29: Shai Bolton
- Thread starter puregreen
- Start date
Carts, you seem to think that we need - how many? - top 3 picks before we have a contending list. That we can't win a flag without our next Cotch and Dusty. I got news for ya pal, no one else has them and someone wins the flag every year.
We're probably going to get a top-3 pick this year. Depending on injuries maybe another next year. Or we could get Lynch and everyone back, a few kids come on and we contend.
Everything else aside, you're playing fantasy football manager. "I'll just trade Shai for 3 first-rounders, doesn't matter that he has a long-term deal and loves the club, forcing out our best player and a beloved teammate won't have a deleterious effect on the group. Not after we bring in the next Jack Bowes, Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs!"
Even if you got the picks right and got the next Rozee, Butters and Amiss, it'd be 7-8 years before they were ready to lead us in a flag tilt anyway. And meanwhile you'd have p!ssed away the rest of the careers of Taranto, The Prince, Balta and others.
We already have a stacked draft hand this year. We already have a bunch of talented kids. We have two million-dolllar contracts coming off the books. We can get Tarryn Thomas for free if he's redeemed himself. He's a top-3 talent. We could possibly get former pick 3 Will Phillips for pick 20. We will bring in free agents in a year or two. We will trade smartly. We will not blow everything up. We are not Norf.
We're probably going to get a top-3 pick this year. Depending on injuries maybe another next year. Or we could get Lynch and everyone back, a few kids come on and we contend.
Everything else aside, you're playing fantasy football manager. "I'll just trade Shai for 3 first-rounders, doesn't matter that he has a long-term deal and loves the club, forcing out our best player and a beloved teammate won't have a deleterious effect on the group. Not after we bring in the next Jack Bowes, Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs!"
Even if you got the picks right and got the next Rozee, Butters and Amiss, it'd be 7-8 years before they were ready to lead us in a flag tilt anyway. And meanwhile you'd have p!ssed away the rest of the careers of Taranto, The Prince, Balta and others.
We already have a stacked draft hand this year. We already have a bunch of talented kids. We have two million-dolllar contracts coming off the books. We can get Tarryn Thomas for free if he's redeemed himself. He's a top-3 talent. We could possibly get former pick 3 Will Phillips for pick 20. We will bring in free agents in a year or two. We will trade smartly. We will not blow everything up. We are not Norf.
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not true
petracca, oliver, daicos, pendlebury, dangerfield etc etc
not as good as dusty but as good as cotch probably
you need top enders or there is no premiership
they really do
the midfield you had us with in 2027 is waaaay below premiership standard
let's run through it again
2027
Bolton
Ross
Taranto
Hopper
McAuliffe
Dow
Sonsie
Graham
(top ten 2024)
(top ten 2025)
this won't get us into the top eight let alone win us a premiership
2017
Cotchin
Prestia
Martin
Lambert
Grigg
Edwards
Graham
Caddy
for comparison
2027
Bolton
Ross
Taranto
Hopper
McAuliffe
Dow
Sonsie
Graham
(top ten 2024)
(top ten 2025)
this won't get us into the top eight let alone win us a premiership
2017
Cotchin
Prestia
Martin
Lambert
Grigg
Edwards
Graham
Caddy
for comparison
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Most sides can sell a similar story.Think our bigger need is for a KP more than a mid.
Dusty then was our Bolton now - he was wasting his talent at Punt Road.
Cotch was seen as a talented stat-padder who ran round the back for easy handball gets.
Prestia didn't set the world on fire at the Suns. Talented, injury prone midget.
Lambert was famously written off as a dud as late as 2016 and even early 2017 by some
Grigg was a Carlton reject who was a good ordinary player.
Edwards matured late and only became a world beater in 2017. Skinny flanker who flashed in and out of games.
Graham had never played a senior game before late 2017 and was pick 50 something. Premiership mid? Lol no.
Caddy another moneyball pick who surprised many, mostly as a small who played tall in the forward line.
You've proved our point Carts. Prior to 2017 people would have laughed in your face if you claimed that was a premiership midfield. Premiership teams and midfields only become legendary in hindsight.
Point is, flags are won through the mysterious alchemy of talent, determination, game-style, blend of youth and experience, and La Fortuna. Our 2028 midfield could be great and there will be a heap of surprises along the way.
Dusty then was our Bolton now - he was wasting his talent at Punt Road.
Cotch was seen as a talented stat-padder who ran round the back for easy handball gets.
Prestia didn't set the world on fire at the Suns. Talented, injury prone midget.
Lambert was famously written off as a dud as late as 2016 and even early 2017 by some
Grigg was a Carlton reject who was a good ordinary player.
Edwards matured late and only became a world beater in 2017. Skinny flanker who flashed in and out of games.
Graham had never played a senior game before late 2017 and was pick 50 something. Premiership mid? Lol no.
Caddy another moneyball pick who surprised many, mostly as a small who played tall in the forward line.
You've proved our point Carts. Prior to 2017 people would have laughed in your face if you claimed that was a premiership midfield. Premiership teams and midfields only become legendary in hindsight.
Point is, flags are won through the mysterious alchemy of talent, determination, game-style, blend of youth and experience, and La Fortuna. Our 2028 midfield could be great and there will be a heap of surprises along the way.
“Could” be great, agreed.
Comes down to how much draft support we need.
I think we need more, others think we need less.
We shall see.
A couple of holes in the various arguments put forward lately:
1) you can’t say that drafting is a “mystery box” and that it’s a “lottery you can’t depend on” and then in the same breath position “top five pick” in future predicted sides like it’s some shining proof of future success. At least with my proposal we have much more chance of getting the future midfield we need, and before Tassie joins the comp.
2) Folks can nit-pick that 2017 midfield all they like, the fact remains that we had seven reliable, very good midfielders by the time that grand final rolled around. Pinning our hopes on the likes of Dow and Ross reaching the heights of Lambert and Grigg is fanciful at best.
Where is our future success going to come from?
Ross isn’t premiership standard at the end of the day, we all know that deep down.
Dow is getting games purely because we have no one else.
Graham is increasingly injury prone and getting slower.
Hopper can’t get out on the park.
Prestia is done. Martin will be done soon and plays forward.
So who?
Taranto will lead our midfield.
Bolton is a superstar and also roams forward. No evidence yet he will assume full time duties at the coal face. It’s a tough gig and we haven’t seen him full time in there.
We have McAuliffe, who I rate.
A Campbell or someone could upgrade themselves, I will allow for this possibility.
So, being somewhat generous, that’s four midfielders.
Where do the other three quality midfielders come from?
Our only pick in the top ten this year?
But Coburg told me it was a mystery box and we’d only get a Lennon?
Can’t have it both ways. Fact is our projected midfield is dire. FA might help, but we also need a KPF or two as they’re harder to nail in the draft.
Bolton isn’t in our next window. Not with the limited draft / trade assistance we get if he stays. The rebuild will be too slow and that’s what folks don’t get.
Forget about trading Bolton for a moment - with the desperately thin midfield stocks we currently have, and our wingers on the edge of a cliff, we aren’t contending anytime soon.
It’ll take longer than many are hoping.
But at least we’ll be able to watch Bolton, like we got to watch Richo.
1) you can’t say that drafting is a “mystery box” and that it’s a “lottery you can’t depend on” and then in the same breath position “top five pick” in future predicted sides like it’s some shining proof of future success. At least with my proposal we have much more chance of getting the future midfield we need, and before Tassie joins the comp.
2) Folks can nit-pick that 2017 midfield all they like, the fact remains that we had seven reliable, very good midfielders by the time that grand final rolled around. Pinning our hopes on the likes of Dow and Ross reaching the heights of Lambert and Grigg is fanciful at best.
Where is our future success going to come from?
Ross isn’t premiership standard at the end of the day, we all know that deep down.
Dow is getting games purely because we have no one else.
Graham is increasingly injury prone and getting slower.
Hopper can’t get out on the park.
Prestia is done. Martin will be done soon and plays forward.
So who?
Taranto will lead our midfield.
Bolton is a superstar and also roams forward. No evidence yet he will assume full time duties at the coal face. It’s a tough gig and we haven’t seen him full time in there.
We have McAuliffe, who I rate.
A Campbell or someone could upgrade themselves, I will allow for this possibility.
So, being somewhat generous, that’s four midfielders.
Where do the other three quality midfielders come from?
Our only pick in the top ten this year?
But Coburg told me it was a mystery box and we’d only get a Lennon?
Can’t have it both ways. Fact is our projected midfield is dire. FA might help, but we also need a KPF or two as they’re harder to nail in the draft.
Bolton isn’t in our next window. Not with the limited draft / trade assistance we get if he stays. The rebuild will be too slow and that’s what folks don’t get.
Forget about trading Bolton for a moment - with the desperately thin midfield stocks we currently have, and our wingers on the edge of a cliff, we aren’t contending anytime soon.
It’ll take longer than many are hoping.
But at least we’ll be able to watch Bolton, like we got to watch Richo.
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Special and unique absolute gun , I remember thinking early on he could be a bust or star , definitely hit a higher level then I first thought he would .
IMHO the Shai package is as good as he’s going to be , I think if he try’s to ad defence to his game he’ll lose he’s natural flair , he’s not Dusty but I think he plays he’s best and the team works best by letting him play his own game , only genuine match winner we now have .
Would you swap him for Reid
IMHO the Shai package is as good as he’s going to be , I think if he try’s to ad defence to his game he’ll lose he’s natural flair , he’s not Dusty but I think he plays he’s best and the team works best by letting him play his own game , only genuine match winner we now have .
Would you swap him for Reid
We can't keep expecting Shai to shoulder all the forward work. Unfortunately right now we have no one else with the flair and will to compete
This may seem like a knee jerk post given the timing, but I’m warming to the idea of using whatever currency that we might have to get our selves more higher end pics.
Just looking at last years premiership winning Collonwood main mids, (not because I consider them to be the gold standard, but because they are the current premiers)
Daicos p4
DeGoey p5
Pendles p5 (still contributing)
Sidebottom p11
Adams p13 (contributed during the year)
For the Tiges Cotch is gone and Dusty is not the player he was and looking slow without the machinery he once had around him.
Hopper is injury prone and at this point unproven. (To me)
Bolton a star bit is not a full time mid (and shouldn’t be)
Taranto is good pic up and will serve us well going forward.
So who is coming through that will be the tip of the spear?
And our current provisional 2024 top end pics are currently 6, 25 & 26 (with 10 junk pics after that) (which I know will change somewhat)
How many pics outside of 20 are we expecting to nail like the Bolton pic?
Given the current list balance for be the writing is now on the wall.
Yes we have some young kids that will improve, and some of them beyond our initial expectations, however we are missing the cream. We are missing a Ried and a partner in crime.
Are we expecting to just pry top end key position players and or mids from other lists with $$?
Get more top end pics asap; not one top end pic per year with some additional hopeful pics for dessert.
Otherwise the regeneration will most probably end up being too slow.
I would seriously look at Bolton & Baker trades from sides that needed them enough to pay what they’re worth.
If trading both netted us a total of (X1) top 10 pic and (X3) pics in the teens - (I may be dreaming about what the market would pay), then this in addition to this years existing pics would be boost the regeneration.
With the (X3) pics in the teens being parlayed into something higher. (If possible)
Without some wheeling and dealing my concern is that we will end up a mid table team, or a team that makes the eight; gets some plucky wins but is never in danger of winning the thing.
Apologies for the length; that’s my brain dump.
Just looking at last years premiership winning Collonwood main mids, (not because I consider them to be the gold standard, but because they are the current premiers)
Daicos p4
DeGoey p5
Pendles p5 (still contributing)
Sidebottom p11
Adams p13 (contributed during the year)
For the Tiges Cotch is gone and Dusty is not the player he was and looking slow without the machinery he once had around him.
Hopper is injury prone and at this point unproven. (To me)
Bolton a star bit is not a full time mid (and shouldn’t be)
Taranto is good pic up and will serve us well going forward.
So who is coming through that will be the tip of the spear?
And our current provisional 2024 top end pics are currently 6, 25 & 26 (with 10 junk pics after that) (which I know will change somewhat)
How many pics outside of 20 are we expecting to nail like the Bolton pic?
Given the current list balance for be the writing is now on the wall.
Yes we have some young kids that will improve, and some of them beyond our initial expectations, however we are missing the cream. We are missing a Ried and a partner in crime.
Are we expecting to just pry top end key position players and or mids from other lists with $$?
Get more top end pics asap; not one top end pic per year with some additional hopeful pics for dessert.
Otherwise the regeneration will most probably end up being too slow.
I would seriously look at Bolton & Baker trades from sides that needed them enough to pay what they’re worth.
If trading both netted us a total of (X1) top 10 pic and (X3) pics in the teens - (I may be dreaming about what the market would pay), then this in addition to this years existing pics would be boost the regeneration.
With the (X3) pics in the teens being parlayed into something higher. (If possible)
Without some wheeling and dealing my concern is that we will end up a mid table team, or a team that makes the eight; gets some plucky wins but is never in danger of winning the thing.
Apologies for the length; that’s my brain dump.
If a player as good as Shai wants to stay with us then it is stupid to force him out. It will only mess with the club culture. Good culture drives success and players buy into into it. Look at us in 2016 and what we grew in 2017 and beyond. If a player wants to leave that is another story. Lids chose to leave and we made the best of it. You don't get rid of players with Shai's talent, you build sides around them.
Welcome aboard and well said.
Our list, particularly the midfield, is not looking good at all. We are in for years and years of pain if we don’t use the only nitro-boost we have - Shai Bolton.
But others on here will say “the draft is not the answer” and that “we’ll only draft Aaron Fiora” but in the same breath espouse the virtues of a future midfield containing Dow, Ross and this year’s first rounder (if it suits their argument this particular pick we will get right with laser-like accuracy).
No doubt more folks will see the light as the year progresses.
Doesn’t mean Bolton will be traded - I can easily see the club falling short of the inspiration required.
Long road ahead if we just try to battle our way through with the draft capital coming our way.
Again I'll ask you, who will have the currency to trade for him? No point saying we need to trade him but not give any way we could trade him. I wouldn't trade him personally, partly due to not wanting to trade for him and partly due to getting nowhere near his value. Ultimately those that would really want him won't be having top 5 draft picks, the likelihood of teams with top 5 draft picks would be West Coast, Hawks, North, us and 1 of Adelaide, Essendon, Bulldogs etc, so where are you getting this fantasy currency for him from? You've already mentioned we wouldn't trade him for a few teens picks so who do we trade him to so that we can get that seriously good talent at the top end.
Freo with two first rounders can trade up into something we need, possibly a future pick too if need be.
Bolton’s from WA, it’s fated.
If they finish 5th and we leave the door open they’ll come super hard for him.
But I’ve said all this before. You just don’t wanna trade him !
Again I'll ask, how do we get a top 5 pick for him? Sure we can trade him to Freo for 3 teen picks, that might provide value from a maths perspective but do you really think that provides value for us to build from? Who would we (or Freo) trade with to get a top 5 draft pick for him?
If we were to trade him on the open market, he's probably a top 5 draft pick plus a bit more, maybe a 2nd rounder, but if we can't generate that through trade and we are left with an accumulation of middling picks then why bother?
There is a possibility we could trade up to both GC's 1st rounders (which I think could be top 10, maybe 7 and 9) but is that enough?
FWIW, I've done a ladder predictor for the rest of this year and done some phantom trades, and if we trade Baker, reckon we could turn our draft hand into something like:
Out Baker
In Will Philips, Josh Treacy, Pick 3, Pick 7 and Pick 14
4 trades, Freo for Baker, Noth for Philips, Carlton for draft picks and GC for draft picks.
