Key Forwards taken in the National Draft 2016 on

[Dyer'ere]

Let's begin with Round 1. What should a key forward look like if he's taken in R1 of the ND? How will he turn out? How many hits are there? And misses?

Here's a list of key forwards taken in the first round of the National Draft since 2016-

Year​	Round​	Pick​	Now?​	Player​	Drafted to​
2023​	ND1​	3​	​	Jed Walter​	Gold Coast​
2023​	ND1​	9​	​	Ethan Read​	Gold Coast​
2023​	ND1​	10​	​	Nate Caddy​	Essendon​
2022​	ND1​	1​	​	Aaron Cadman​	Greater Western Sydney​
2021​	ND1​	19​	​	Jacob van Rooyen​	Melbourne​
2020​	ND1​	1​	​	Jamarra Ugle-Hagan​	Western Bulldogs​
2020​	ND1​	2​	​	Riley Thilthorpe​	Adelaide​
2020​	ND1​	4​	​	Logan McDonald​	Sydney​
2020​	ND1​	26​	​	Matthew McLeod-Allison​	St Kilda​
2019​	ND1​	3​	​	Luke Jackson+~​	Melbourne​
2019​	ND1​	18​	​	Mitch Georgiades​	Port Adelaide​
2018​	ND1​	2​	​	Jack Lukosius​	Gold Coast​
2018​	ND1​	4​	​	Max King​	St Kilda​
2018​	ND1​	6​	​	Ben King​	Gold Coast​
2017​	ND1​	12​	​	Darcy Fogarty​	Adelaide​
2016​	ND1​	16​	​	Todd Marshall​	Port Adelaide​
2016​	ND1​	19​	​	Tim English​	Western Bulldogs​

I've included the rucks who play(ed) forward.

 

[jltiger]

Not too many misses there...

 

[Don’t Argue]

Not too many misses there...

Only JVR.
According to many on PRE

 

[ToraToraTora]

Wtf is Mathew McLeod Alison?

 

[taztiger4]

Wtf is Mathew McLeod Alison?

hahah, its a real name, that pick was actually ours

 

[Dyer'ere]

Wtf is Mathew McLeod Alison?

Just Matthew Allison these days, TTT.

- Matthew Allison

vfl.aflmstats.com

 

[tigertim]

Just Matthew Allison these days, TTT.

- Matthew Allison

vfl.aflmstats.com

I have to say I’ve never heard of him, talk about drafting busts! 0 games in his 4 years at the Saints.

 

[taztiger4]

I have to say I’ve never heard of him, talk about drafting busts! 0 games in his 4 years at the Saints.

Chris Toce's work ?

 

[Dyer'ere]

BTW Allison is probably a Toce. Covid year and all...

Chris Toce's work ?

Might be Liberatore, Taz. Or very possibly Toce's.

 

[Scoop]

I'd love to overlay that with the leading goal kickers from that period and see where they were drafted.

But I did some quick research on the names above and the basic best-case result for those forwards taken early is to around 40-45 goals by year 4 or 5. Ben King cops a lot of heat by he is going to kick more than 54 for the year. That was the best number I saw in terms of goal kicked. I look at Darcy Fogarty and his career arch seems about right, by the time he is 24, he kicks 41 this year but it's a slow start. Nate Caddy is interesting, small sample but he is 9 in 9 games, if he played more footy, he might have had 20. If he kicks 30 next year, he is way ahead of schedule. Aaron Cadman in year 2 at 24 is ahead of schedule as well.

If we take a key forward this year, it is unreasonable to expect 30 goals till at least year 3. That's a good result. Logan Mcdonald's career arc so far is heading the right way. To me that's the best case model and Jacob Van Rooyen is following a similar path. We have to temper expectations to get a key forward in.

 

[tigersnake]

That is an excellent strike rate.

 

[Don’t Argue]

We would be negligent if we don’t use at least one low ish draft pick on the best available tall. Possibly 2 if we rate them highly enough although I’d be rooking Archie May myself.
The figures above provided by Jack more than support the argument.

 

[Scoop]

Dear at Hawthorn, just kicked his 20th in year 1.

Incredible effort. Hawthorn plucking him at pick 56 with limited TAC exposure is a huge get.

 

[The_General]

Dear at Hawthorn, just kicked his 20th in year 1.

Incredible effort. Hawthorn plucking him at pick 56 with limited TAC exposure is a huge get.

Why can't our old players pop out father-sons like this?

 

[The_General]

We would be negligent if we don’t use at least one low ish draft pick on the best available tall. Possibly 2 if we rate them highly enough although I’d be rooking Archie May myself.
The figures above provided by Jack more than support the argument.

Haven't seen the VFL the past few weeks. What's your take on Fawcett? Do we want May, Fawcett and say Shanahan? Only one ball.
I get the risk of a late pick like Fawcett and a rookie KPF. Not a huge amount of success stories.

 

[tigersnake]

Dear at Hawthorn, just kicked his 20th in year 1.

Incredible effort. Hawthorn plucking him at pick 56 with limited TAC exposure is a huge get.

It really is an incredible effort. The late F/S factor, they would have watched him closer than anyone else. I have no stats to back it up, but it feels like they are more likely to succeed than a regulation late pick.

 

[spook]

It really is an incredible effort. The late F/S factor, they would have watched him closer than anyone else. I have no stats to back it up, but it feels like they are more likely to succeed than a regulation late pick.

Josh Daicos pick 58. Jack Silvagni 60-odd. Shane Tuck 73 at 21 years old.

 

[TigerFlag2017]

Let's begin with Round 1. What should a key forward look like if he's taken in R1 of the ND? How will he turn out? How many hits are there? And misses?

Here's a list of key forwards taken in the first round of the National Draft since 2016-

Year​	Round​	Pick​	Now?​	Player​	Drafted to​
2023​	ND1​	3​	​	Jed Walter​	Gold Coast​
2023​	ND1​	9​	​	Ethan Read​	Gold Coast​
2023​	ND1​	10​	​	Nate Caddy​	Essendon​
2022​	ND1​	1​	​	Aaron Cadman​	Greater Western Sydney​
2021​	ND1​	19​	​	Jacob van Rooyen​	Melbourne​
2020​	ND1​	1​	​	Jamarra Ugle-Hagan​	Western Bulldogs​
2020​	ND1​	2​	​	Riley Thilthorpe​	Adelaide​
2020​	ND1​	4​	​	Logan McDonald​	Sydney​
2020​	ND1​	26​	​	Matthew McLeod-Allison​	St Kilda​
2019​	ND1​	3​	​	Luke Jackson+~​	Melbourne​
2019​	ND1​	18​	​	Mitch Georgiades​	Port Adelaide​
2018​	ND1​	2​	​	Jack Lukosius​	Gold Coast​
2018​	ND1​	4​	​	Max King​	St Kilda​
2018​	ND1​	6​	​	Ben King​	Gold Coast​
2017​	ND1​	12​	​	Darcy Fogarty​	Adelaide​
2016​	ND1​	16​	​	Todd Marshall​	Port Adelaide​
2016​	ND1​	19​	​	Tim English​	Western Bulldogs​

I've included the rucks who play(ed) forward.

As others have said, that is a very good strike rate.

It would be interesting to see how the tall defenders in the first round have turned out.

 

[123cups]

Anyone notice any new trends emerging between height, early draft picks, and leading goal kickers compared to past decades?

Height seems to be less dominant in the modern game, but it also looks harder to draft quality talls outside the first round, so I'd speculate that it's more important than ever to invest early in the draft.

Nonetheless, in the Grand Final almost every single goal was created through fast, ground level play with multiple handballs or short, uncontested passes to free men. Big, contested marks aren't a feature of the modern game, and height is mostly valuable when it comes to bringing the ball to ground for smaller players and to prevent the opposition from taking easy intercept marks.

We've seen ruckmen drop down in value at the pointy end of the draft compared to 20 years ago. Does anyone think we could see a similar shift in how clubs value tall forwards over the coming 20 years?

 

[Don’t Argue]

Haven't seen the VFL the past few weeks. What's your take on Fawcett? Do we want May, Fawcett and say Shanahan? Only one ball.
I get the risk of a late pick like Fawcett and a rookie KPF. Not a huge amount of success stories.

Fawcett looks like a natural footballer. Looks to have both an aerial and ground game with above average iq.
That from very limited exposure and a lack of a proper preseason.
A lot to like but wouldn’t be resting on our laurels and would draft the best key forward this year.