Personally I think 95% is too high especially for rebuilding clubs.
TPP is about $14m, 5% underspend is circa $700k, 10% is therefore $1.4m.
Bearing in mind within the cap I'd expect the top 10 players of a top team to probably take up around 40% of the cap. I've broken it out below.
Top 10 - 10 players = $5.6m, average $560k
1st / 2nd year players - 6 players = $600k, average $100k
Mid level players = 26 players = $7.8m, average $300k
I'd suspect those lower level teams have similar numbers in the remaining list, just their top 10 won't be at that level.
I've balanced it the other way as an example.
So based on 95% of the cap.
1st / 2nd year players - 10 players = $1.0m, average $100k
Mid level players = 26 players = $7.8m, average $300k
Remaining (top players) = 6 players = $4.5m, average $750k
Based on 90% of the cap.
1st / 2nd year players - 10 players = $1.0m, average $100k
Mid level players = 26 players = $7.8m, average $300k
Remaining (top players) = 6 players = $3.8m, average $633k
The biggest issue with those at 95% of the cap is they will have more younger players earning rookie contracts, and they have way too much of the cap to allocate out, hence that huge average of $750k if you leave it all to your big hitters. Most likely, a lot of that increase probably doesn't even fall into that bucket, but will actually fall onto those mid range players so thats where we get these average players on ridiculous money.
The other way to address this would be to have a more flexible list size. For example, at the minute its quite rigid. You are allowed 42 on the list (between 36 and 38 on the main list) and between 4 and 6 rookies all adding upto 42. What if that 42 wasn't so rigid. Maybe its 42-47. 36 to 40 on the main list and between 4 and 11 on the rookie list. Those rookies would then most likely add to that middle range. So lets look at the 95% cap again.
1st / 2nd year players - 15 players = $1.5m, average $100k
Mid level players = 26 players = $7.8m, average $300k
Remaining (top players) = 6 players = $4.0m, average $666k
Still IMO a bit on the high side. I like the increase in list size AND a decline to min spend of 90%.
1st / 2nd year players - 15 players = $1.5m, average $100k
Mid level players = 26 players = $7.8m, average $300k
Remaining (top players) = 6 players = $3.3m, average $550k
I think providing more flexibility to clubs should provide enough flexibility to decide at what level you think a player deserves to be paid. It gives clubs like West Coast / Hawthorn for example the scope to really ramp down the spend per player, but also add rookies that might have some issues, and probably therefore increases the talent pool available as you have more talent being trained through the AFL system.
