Geelong's 1st pick 2021. Its ours

[Ian4]

If a good team is 0-2 for whatever reason then their chances of making the eight are lower than at the start of the year but better than 10%. If a crap team is 0-2 their chances of making the eight will be way less than 10%. Saying all 0-2 teams have a 5/58 chance of making eight just doesn’t make sense because some of them are still good teams but the bulk will be very poor teams.

I totally agree and i expect Brisbane to make the finals if they lose this week. Geelong will be at much longer odds (i don't rate them). But the important key here is how it will make it nigh on impossible for the loser to make top 4. They'd have to go 15-5 from here. And that is where it benefits us

 

[zippadeee]

I totally agree and i expect Brisbane to make the finals if they lose this week. Geelong will be at much longer odds (i don't rate them). But the important key here is how it will make it nigh on impossible for the loser to make top 4. They'd have to go 15-5 from here. And that is where it benefits us

Both of them don't/wont trouble us.
Port are our only Oppostion

 

[Long Lost Hernaman]

Clearly because a lot of them were crap Teams. If the 2010 tigers were 2-0 you probably still would have expected them to misss. Just like we all still expect the 1-0 crows and 1-0 swans to miss

Correlation and causation are different things. I’m a maths nerd but we should leave this simplistic analysis to the media for clickbait headlines to create a crisis. Clearly there is some impact of losing games with where you end up the year but the biggest cause of where you end up for the year is how good your team will be on average and probably also how difficult your opponents are given luck of the draw.

If a good team is 0-2 for whatever reason then their chances of making the eight are lower than at the start of the year but better than 10%. If a crap team is 0-2 their chances of making the eight will be way less than 10%. Saying all 0-2 teams have a 5/58 chance of making eight just doesn’t make sense because some of them are still good teams but the bulk will be very poor teams.

betting markets will give a good indication of actual odds.

but yes I’m massively deathriding Geelong and they are screwed if they lose (I hope)

Now there's a post that has everything. A little education, a little maths. Yet rounded out beautifully with a death wish for the club I can only describe as the mother in law of the competition.

Well batted RE.

 

[Bernie]

yeah.

I wonder can you overdose on good fortune and joy?

Yes of course you can Easy. Can't you remember your single days?

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

Current standings of draft points:

1. Gold Coast - 5254
2. Richmond - 4702
3. Norf - 4535


15. Collingwoood - 1678
16. Melbourne - 1404
17. Footscray - 1271
18. Port - 1196

 

[King Kong]

Current standings of draft points:

1. Gold Coast - 5254
2. Richmond - 4702
3. Norf - 4535


15. Collingwoood - 1678
16. Melbourne - 1404
17. Footscray - 1271
18. Port - 1196

This needs its own thread with weekly updates

 

[craig]

Part of me would like to see them lose to the Bears and go OWEN.

However part of me also wants to see the Bears go OWEN.

I really want to see the Skunks go OWEN. The maggots hoardes will start lighting the blow torches if they lose to the Navies.

As long as we turn up and roll the Hawks this week we cant lose .................unless they both finish with draws.

 

[zippadeee]

Couldve/should've been a 0-3 start for the *smile* weak cats.
The game plan dosent stack up.
Higgins isnt the good kick the media make him out to be, the 3 kicks i saw from him yesterday were clangers. Smith is Mitch Duncan part 2, gets it ok but when things get hot he disappears.
Miles would be the worse kick of a footy ive ever seen. Its ridiculous.
Henderson can't play the Harry Taylor roll period.
They better hope Cameron dosent suffer another Hamstring.
3 in 6 months that leads to surgery and then season over.
Pick 8 or 10 is looking good.
Melbourne will run rings around them on the G.

 

[tigers1980]

Couldve/should've been a 0-3 start for the *smile* weak cats.
The game plan dosent stack up.
Higgins isnt the good kick the media make him out to be, the 3 kicks i saw from him yesterday were clangers. Smith is Mitch Duncan part 2, gets it ok but when things get hot he disappears.
Miles would be the worse kick of a footy ive ever seen. Its ridiculous.
Henderson can't play the Harry Taylor roll period.
They better hope Cameron dosent suffer another Hamstring.
3 in 6 months that leads to surgery and then season over.
Pick 8 or 10 is looking good.
Melbourne will run rings around them on the G.

Agreed entirely. They're just spluttering and their game plan will fall apart against the good teams that turn the heat up on the ball carrier.

 

[Redford]

They'll make the 8 comfortably.

 

[Scoop]

Strong early draft talk, its a bumper crop.

 

[Dustythegoat]

I agree the Cats “should” make the 8 quite comfortably so we are more than likely looking at a pick in the teens. The Saints 2nd rounder is looking good at the moment and if they keep playing the way they are then that could be a nice gift.
Either way, we play both of them twice this year so if we win all 4 of those games then that could have a fair say on where the picks land.
I can’t see us using 6 picks at the draft this year - would be nice if we could package up a combo of the 2nd’s and 3rd’s to get a 3rd 1st round pick!

 

[TigerFlag2017]

Anything less than pick 15 is a bonus.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Think Geelong will attack more when Cameron comes in and they have two quality targets.

 

[mrposhman]

Whilst the news about Jarrod Witts isn't good, the silver lining for us, is it should give us a good pick for their 3rd

 

[Brodders17]

Whilst the news about Jarrod Witts isn't good, the silver lining for us, is it should give us a good pick for their 3rd

so we want cats 17th, saints 16th, and suns 15th? (no point hoping for 18th, thats sewn up)

 

[mrposhman]

so we want cats 17th, saints 16th, and suns 15th? (no point hoping for 18th, thats sewn up)

Would be perfect.

FWIW, I've just done a ladder predictor and have the Suns 17th (Witts is a massive loss, on the back of losing Sam Day too), Saints outside of finals (12th) and Geelong in 7th, though they were bouncing in and out of the 8 throughout the last 7 or 8 rounds with Collingwood, Melbourne and Brissy. I think those last few spots are going to be hard fought over.

 

[wayne]

The way the Saints are going, we will have a very early 2nd rounder

 

[Harry]

So we have cats 1st, saints 2nd, and suns 3rd rd pick? Nice

 

[seven]

The way the Saints are going, we will have a very early 2nd rounder

Waiting for the Blobbo and wince boy to step in and complaining and insist the AFL stop us getting them.