Draft Week History - the recent past is better than you might think

[PBoRSM]

Sadly, this is one of the exciting times of the year and as we near trade week our attention will soon turn towards the next Conca, Batchelor or Helbig to become a tiger.

Every self respecting RFC supporter would know that draft week has potentially been a disaster for RFC with R. Tambling instead of L. Franklin being the epitome of our collective frustrations.

We all know the train wreck of 2004 - Brad Ottens (3 time premiership player) was on traded to Geelong for 2 first rounders and our terrible 2003 helped us amass 5 picks in the first 20, with another pick at 36. History nows shows we set the club back a number of years with our selections. With only Deledio (no pats on the back for RFC drafting him at 1) and the much maligned McGuane still at the club.

But how have we managed in the draft since? Well I went back for a quick look and found out the answer is that after we backed up 2004 with an almost as bad 2005 at the draft table, our performance since has been reasonably creditable.

Here's how I saw the last 6 draft performances by RFC - those of you who are more learned or more opinioned about these things can comment further.

2005
Drafted JON at 8. Missed on – Mitch Clark (9), Shaun Higgins (10), Nathan Jones (12), Shannon Hurn (13), Grant Birchall (14), Travis Varcoe (15), Clint Dempsey (19)
Drafted Cleve Hughes at 24. Missed on – Gary Ibbotson (26), Dylan Addison (27), Bernie Vince (32)
Drafted Travis Casserly at 40. Missed on – Robbie Warnock (42), Andrew Swallow (43), Carlisle from Port (44), Sam Lonergan (50), Josh Patfull (56), Clint Bartrum (60), Matthew Stokes (61)

Complete Disaster. F effort. JON equal worst player in top 20 with Dowler from Hawthorn who went 16 I think. Misses straight after Hughes were bad. Casserly delisted without playing. Absolute schocking effort all round.


2006
Drafted Jack Riewoldt at 13. Missed on – no one
Drafted Shane Edwards at 26. Missed on – Kurt Tippett (32), Todd Goldstein (37)
Drafted Carl Peterson at 60. Missed on Josh Hill (61), Tyson Goldsack (63).
Drafted Andy Collins at 73. Missed on – no one. He was eventually ontraded for Grigg who was pick 19 in this same draft.
Also got Bacher Houli for nothing who was drafted at 42 in this same draft.

B+ effort. Only the Carl Peterson misses were bad, but Hill and Goldsack still available at 60+ is no direct reflection on RFC.

2007
Drafted Cotchin at 2. Missed on – no one. Rioli (12) no Cotchin and next best in this draft behind Kruezer at (1).
Drafted Alex Rance at 18. Missed on – no one. Scott Selwood (22) only player close to Rance after top 15.
Drafted Dean Putt at 51. Missed on – no one. No stand outs yet.

B effort. Both Cotchin and Rance have proved to be best available. Putt delisted without a game, but no one beyond 50 has prove to be a star yet.

2008
Drafted Ty Vickory at 8. Missed on – no one yet. Only Jack Ziebell (9), Steele Sidebottom (11), Luke Shuey (18) have potential to be as good as/better than Ty, but not yet.
Drafted Jadyn Post at 26. Missed on – Dane Beams (29), Daniel Hannebury (30), Mitch Robinson (40).
Drafted Tom Hislop at 58. Missed on – Leigh Brown (73).

B effort. Vickery pick couldn’t have been better given our needs then and results now. Post picked before a premiership player and a rising star is a miss, but still in the system. Tom Hislop had only one player behind him prove to be a better pick up, so no real disaster.

2009
Drafted Martin at 3. Missed on – no one yet. Best in draft to this point.
Drafted Ben Griffiths at 19. Missed on – Nathan Fyfe (20), Ryan Bastinac (21), Mitch Duncan (28), Jack Gunston (29). This is harsh on RFC recruiters and Griff, but based on output alone Griff would be behind all these guys. Maybe pass a few of these in years to come.
Drafted David Astbury at 35. Missed on – Sam Reid (38), Allen Christensen (40).
Drafted Matthew Dea at 44. Missed on – no one yet
Drafted Jeromey Webberley at 67. Missed on – no one yet
Drafted Ben Nason at 71. Missed on – no one yet.

B+ effort. Got the best draftee and both Griffiths and Astbury have been affected by injuries and may prove me wrong. No of Dea, Webberley or Nason were selected ahead of any one decent.

2010
Drafted Conca at 6. Missed on – Dyson Heppell (8), Jack Darling (26)
Drafted Batchelorat 30. Missed on – Alex Fasolo (45)
Drafted Brad Helbig at 47. Missed on – no one yet.
Drafted Dean McDonald. Missed on – no on yet.

B+ effort. Heppell going better than Conca right now, but everyone bar WCE missed Darling. Fasolo millimeters ahead of Batchelor due to goal kicking and premiership – could change within 2 years. No one behind Helbig and McDonald proving to be a superstar yet.

Summary
Since 2006 our recruiters have done pretty well. Sure they have missed the odd one or two, but we definitely not the worst drafters in the league. A title we held from 1986 – 2005 inclusive. Maybe we do have the right people making these decisions now.

 

[PBoRSM]

2010
Drafted Conca at 6. Missed on – Dyson Heppell (8), Jack Darling (26)
[/quote]

Ah, Dyson Heppell went at 8, I don't actually think he is cool (don't really know the lad at all, he might be cool..........)

 

[GEDS1]

Dowler was pick 6

 

[SAF]

I think it's too early to call on the 09 & 10 drafts, there maybe be players from those drafts that are yet to make their mark. We don't really know how good players like Conca, Griffiths and Astbury are going to be yet - a lot depends on how they go over the next 2 years. Martin is the only one from those drafts that you can lock in as a long term star - that is the benefit of a top 3 pick.

Certainly the way we have drafted and traded in the last few years is an improvement but that is not saying a lot considered how bad we had been pretty much since the draft was introduced. The best and most successful clubs get the large majority of their early draft picks and trades right - this is often the difference. Geelong are a great example - hardly a bad recruitment decision in the last 10 years. We still have a long way to go.

 

[Jason King]

The Martin and Cotchin drafts have to be A's in my opinion. Best players from those drafts without a shadow of a doubt and we got them. They are the two guys you could build a premiership side around.

 

[U2Tigers]

When did Fasolo get his premiership.

 

[YellowBlacks21]

It is no surprise that since we actually started putting some money into recruiting (pre-2006 draft) when FJ joined as a full timer our drafting has improved out of sight. Add to this the two extra recruiters we have had over the last couple of seasons as well as Blair Hartley (Houli and Grigg pick ups) and we are not the same club as we were before 2005. We still have a long way to go to match Geelong but we are heading in the right direction.

 

[jb03]

Fyfe instead of Griffiths and Warnock instead of Casserley would have made a pretty big difference to us.

 

[Sintiger]

its interesting that a club with one of the worst records at the top of the draft in recent years in Hawthorn are doing so well . Dowler , Muston , Thorp , Bailey ( although still hope I guess ) . They have basically had one first round success with Rioli in recent years .

Its great to get them right for sure but it shows that the key is who you get with later picks that really tells the story and how well you trade .
i.e Hale , Burgoyne , Gibson

 

[Jason King]

Fyfe instead of Griffiths and Warnock instead of Casserley would have made a pretty big difference to us.

So far Griff has shown absolutely nothing and Fyfe's an all australian. We cant write Griff off just yet, he has the tools but i am not sure his body will ever be right for afl.

 

[PBoRSM]

Dowler was pick 6

That was a guess after I closed everything down. Pick 6 for Dowler is even worse than pick 16. We were only marginally better with our selection of JON which was a well documented balls-up

 

[PBoRSM]

When did Fasolo get his premiership.

Never. I was just getting ahead of myself. He played in a GF, albeit as a deer in the headlights. Think Batchelor will be better, but pound for pound we would have done better with Fasolo this year than Batchelor, though not enough to win a great number of extra games - so it probably doesn't matter yet.

 

[tigs2010]

If Richmond traded Batchelor for Fasolo i'd give up.
Dowler was pick 6 ahead of JON.
Griff and Astbury are 2nd year KPP way to early to call.

 

[U2Tigers]

Never. I was just getting ahead of myself. He played in a GF, albeit as a deer in the headlights. Think Batchelor will be better, but pound for pound we would have done better with Fasolo this year than Batchelor, though not enough to win a great number of extra games - so it probably doesn't matter yet.

Batchelor is a gem.

smart footballer from what I saw this year, seemed very composed for a first year player.

Can't wait for Batchelor to get a few seasons into him, he will be our pick of that year IMO.

 

[dimmauchump]

Would pick Batchelor ahead of Fasolo every day of the bloody week. Kid will be an absolute gem for us. RFC got that one VERY right.

 

[Lennox Street]

It is no surprise that since we actually started putting some money into recruiting (pre-2006 draft) when FJ joined as a full timer our drafting has improved out of sight.

I don't know if it is money. Money and recuiting are overrated. You could get 10-15 parttimers if you wanted for under 100k.

I think the change was that after the 2005 draft the pushed the rating of Athleticism way down the criteria and the value on Footy Character way up the criteria. We started targetting guys who had played consistenly good football over guys with upside who had shown glimpses. Reiwoldt, Cotchin and Martin want to be AFL players, JON and Cleveland just got swept into the system before they knew what was happening.

 

[JR8]

Would pick Batchelor ahead of Fasolo every day of the bloody week. Kid will be an absolute gem for us. RFC got that one VERY right.

100% agree

 

[Joe Lynn Turnip]

Still worries me that Batchelor is the only one of the new kids (that played in the seniors) yet to sign an extension.

 

[wayne]

Connors was also in the '06 draft.

Swallow, Goldstein and Fyfe running around for us would be mouth watering.

 

[PBoRSM]

Would pick Batchelor ahead of Fasolo every day of the bloody week. Kid will be an absolute gem for us. RFC got that one VERY right.

I retract my earlier statement that Fasolo is ahead of Batchelor. Different players, but on the surface Batch is ahead in almost every stat that matters.
Games 16 to 13
Ave disp per game 12.6 to 11.3
Kicking eff 78.2% to 73.5%
Tackles 49 to 29
1%ers 47 to 11

They are roughly even on dream team point per game, contested possies and marks. But I'd say Batchelor is a better pick up marginally at this stage. I was clouded by Fasolo's GF appearance.